The fight for top 4 & top 8

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My little note though - if West Coast win it all this year they'll have my tremendous respect. I'm not going to deny in the slightest Collingwood's significant injuries, but I (and I'm sure I'm not the only one) thought West Coast's hopes were dashed when LeCras's knee went. Not to mention throwing in Kennedy, Embley and Nicoski on top of that...and still top 4? Damn impressive.
Nice to hear stuff like that. To be honest, when LeCras went down, followed by Nicoski, Kennedy and Embley I thought we would just do enough to make the 8. Ive even being surprised by how well we have gone with such huge injury problems. I hope we can keep it up and finish at least top 4. Top 2 would be even better.
 
It's going to be hard, but they're good at it - seem to do well finding players from any sort of avenue.

Reid was a 2nd/3rd rounder; Johnson was quite a late pick, I think Goodesy himself was a 3rd rounder or so.

You're right, but clubs don't allow superstars like Goodes to slip through so far anymore. You can find someone like Reid with a late pick, but you have be very clever/lucky to find the diamonds in the rough, like the Crows have done with Tippett/Walker - who are the types you can build a team around.

As for the Eagles discussion, if they win the flag this year it's one of the greatest of all time, considering their injuries.
 

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I just realised that Nicoski could possibly be on the sidelines for two premierships. In 2006 he was best 22, and the image of him after the win was a little heartbreaking.
Would be rough if it happened twice, but I would say that he is more mature about it nowadays. LeCras wasnt far off making the 2006 premiership team either, and was our shining light in 2010. Cant imagine a flag without him.
 
With Vickery and Connors out for the year, Grimes out for 4 weeks (but rumours of indefinitely), King out for 4 (if lucky), Martin and Jackson for 2, and Foley still to fully recover, we will struggle to win both of the next 2, let alone 7 of our next 9.

Put a fork in us, we are done :(

Hopefully Saints and Cats hang in there and get 7/8
 
With Vickery and Connors out for the year, Grimes out for 4 weeks (but rumours of indefinitely), King out for 4 (if lucky), Martin and Jackson for 2, and Foley still to fully recover, we will struggle to win both of the next 2, let alone 7 of our next 9.

Put a fork in us, we are done :(

Hopefully Saints and Cats hang in there and get 7/8

It's easy to look at it glass half empty style.

Vickery and Connors didn't give us much at all this season. And yes, while the next 2 weeks against Melb and GC are far from certainties, if we win those 2 then Martin + Jackson come back we havent lost anything.

King adds a bit defensively but IMO is replaceable.

Grimes and Foley are losses but I hope Foley will at least be able to return when we come up to the crunch games.
 
It's easy to look at it glass half empty style.

Vickery and Connors didn't give us much at all this season. And yes, while the next 2 weeks against Melb and GC are far from certainties, if we win those 2 then Martin + Jackson come back we havent lost anything.

King adds a bit defensively but IMO is replaceable.

Grimes and Foley are losses but I hope Foley will at least be able to return when we come up to the crunch games.

Point is we need to win ALL games against Melbourne, GC, North, Bulldogs, Lions, and Port, and one of Freo, Bombers, and Carlton. for the next two weeks, we needed to win and win big, but now are going in with a side with at least 5 changes (may be up to 7). Dees are rightfully going to go into this game looking to kill our season, and GC will be doing the same next week (we lost to them last year at Cairns remember).

Even after these two games, the losses really do expose our lack of depth:

- Grimes is our best backman, and he'll be replaced by Batch who is having an indifferent season at best

- Vickery gives us structure, and importantly a second ruck. Using Miller, Post, etc leaves us stuffed when Maric has a break. Means either giving up those contests, or bringing in Gus/Browne who are not great up forward

- Foley's inside work has not been replaced, which is one of the factors that has made us look worse in the middle in recent weeks.

- King is massively important to our defensive forward work, and none of Edwards, Nahas, and Maric have shown any ability to do the same role. I am hoping (hoping) White may be able to step up, but its a long shot.

We were always a long shot to win 7 of 9, as we needed everything to go our way. In one week we have lost 5 players, and have another still recovering slowly. The long shot just became a very long one.
 
Point is we need to win ALL games against Melbourne, GC, North, Bulldogs, Lions, and Port, and one of Freo, Bombers, and Carlton. for the next two weeks, we needed to win and win big, but now are going in with a side with at least 5 changes (may be up to 7). Dees are rightfully going to go into this game looking to kill our season, and GC will be doing the same next week (we lost to them last year at Cairns remember).

Even after these two games, the losses really do expose our lack of depth:

- Grimes is our best backman, and he'll be replaced by Batch who is having an indifferent season at best

- Vickery gives us structure, and importantly a second ruck. Using Miller, Post, etc leaves us stuffed when Maric has a break. Means either giving up those contests, or bringing in Gus/Browne who are not great up forward

- Foley's inside work has not been replaced, which is one of the factors that has made us look worse in the middle in recent weeks.

- King is massively important to our defensive forward work, and none of Edwards, Nahas, and Maric have shown any ability to do the same role. I am hoping (hoping) White may be able to step up, but its a long shot.

We were always a long shot to win 7 of 9, as we needed everything to go our way. In one week we have lost 5 players, and have another still recovering slowly. The long shot just became a very long one.

SHould win most those games....
 
And still find it funny how Hawthorn fans continue to try and validate that they are any more than the 6th best side so far in 2012.

Like many pie fans, you've been lulled into a false sense of '**** we're good' by your 10 wins in a row. Lets have a look at what those 10 wins were made up of. First the easy games against teams outside the 8:
Port (home) - 24 point win
Dogs - 21 point win
Brisbane (away)- 58 point win
GC - 97 point win
Melbourne - 42 point win
Freo (home) - 29 point win

So far so good, allowed freo and port to get a bit close, especially given you played them at home, but you won all those comfortably in the end, as you should have, they all currently sit in the bottom 8.

Now the top 8 sides is where it gets a bit more concerning:
Bombers - 1 point win
Geelong - 12 point win
Adelaide (away) - 26 point win
Westcoast (home) - 3 point win

Adelaide is the only semi-comfortable win you've had over a top 8 side all year, against the other top 8 sides you've been less than convincing, especially as Geelong had more scoring shots. An unlucky bounce either way, or better accuracy from cats, and you could have very easily been 1 out of 5 against top 8 teams (including the Hawthorn loss). You'll likely respond with "but the good teams win the close ones", which is fair enough. But the really good teams convincingly beat their fellow top 8 rivals, something the pies haven't done a good job of this year. Pies are simply not as good as their current top-of-the-ladder position suggests. I'll change my mind if they can start doing more than just falling over the line (or losing as in the Hawks match) against other top 8 sides. There are at least 5 top 8 sides who would like their chances against the Pies this year (Bombers, Geelong, West Coast (especially at home), Hawks and Sydney). You play all of them in the run home, so you'll probably need to step up a gear if you want to maintain top spot. I've picked Pies in tonights game, but even that could be closer than most Pie fans suspect, given their inability to put teams above the bottom eight away this year. Of course if it is close we'll hear the "Bucks is peaking them at the right time" nonsense, rather than the reality of, "Yet, Another game where we couldn't put the opponents away".

I'd go as far as suggesting that the only reason the pies are #1 on the ladder right now is because they've deferred their hard games to the final rounds. In the final 9 rounds you play all the other teams in the top 10 apart from Adelaide (with GWS your only 'easy' game). With several teams having lopsided runs like that at the end of the year, ladder position isn't as a good an indicator of form as it usually would be. The season end ladder will obviously be clearer, but even then, with some teams playing GWS/GC twice, in terms of being a form guide, the ladder may well be the least representative for many years. Would like to say a team outside the top 4 could have the best chance for a while given how even 1-7 are, but if WC get home finals, they could easily ruin that party, obviously nobody outside top 4 will fancy a final there. There is no doubt that if Pies finish top, with their run home, they thoroughly deserve it. It is however conceivable given the rest of their draw, that they could drop not just from first, but out of the top 4 (given their rather poor percentage).
 
Like many pie fans, you've been lulled into a false sense of '**** we're good' by your 10 wins in a row. Lets have a look at what those 10 wins were made up of. First the easy games against teams outside the 8:
Port (home) - 24 point win
Dogs - 21 point win
Brisbane (away)- 58 point win
GC - 97 point win
Melbourne - 42 point win
Freo (home) - 29 point win

So far so good, allowed freo and port to get a bit close, especially given you played them at home, but you won all those comfortably in the end, as you should have, they all currently sit in the bottom 8.

Now the top 8 sides is where it gets a bit more concerning:
Bombers - 1 point win
Geelong - 12 point win
Adelaide (away) - 26 point win
Westcoast (home) - 3 point win

Adelaide is the only semi-comfortable win you've had over a top 8 side all year, against the other top 8 sides you've been less than convincing, especially as Geelong had more scoring shots. An unlucky bounce either way, or better accuracy from cats, and you could have very easily been 1 out of 5 against top 8 teams (including the Hawthorn loss). You'll likely respond with "but the good teams win the close ones", which is fair enough. But the really good teams convincingly beat their fellow top 8 rivals, something the pies haven't done a good job of this year. Pies are simply not as good as their current top-of-the-ladder position suggests. I'll change my mind if they can start doing more than just falling over the line (or losing as in the Hawks match) against other top 8 sides. There are at least 5 top 8 sides who would like their chances against the Pies this year (Bombers, Geelong, West Coast (especially at home), Hawks and Sydney). You play all of them in the run home, so you'll probably need to step up a gear if you want to maintain top spot. I've picked Pies in tonights game, but even that could be closer than most Pie fans suspect, given their inability to put teams above the bottom eight away this year. Of course if it is close we'll hear the "Bucks is peaking them at the right time" nonsense, rather than the reality of, "Yet, Another game where we couldn't put the opponents away".

I'd go as far as suggesting that the only reason the pies are #1 on the ladder right now is because they've deferred their hard games to the final rounds. In the final 9 rounds you play all the other teams in the top 10 apart from Adelaide (with GWS your only 'easy' game). With several teams having lopsided runs like that at the end of the year, ladder position isn't as a good an indicator of form as it usually would be. The season end ladder will obviously be clearer, but even then, with some teams playing GWS/GC twice, in terms of being a form guide, the ladder may well be the least representative for many years. Would like to say a team outside the top 4 could have the best chance for a while given how even 1-7 are, but if WC get home finals, they could easily ruin that party, obviously nobody outside top 4 will fancy a final there. There is no doubt that if Pies finish top, with their run home, they thoroughly deserve it. It is however conceivable given the rest of their draw, that they could drop not just from first, but out of the top 4 (given their rather poor percentage).
LoL

Collingwood have played the most players of any team bar GWS and GC, the side has been hardest hit by injuries of all teams in the league....yet are a game clear on top.

The reason they are on top is because they win, they are 3-0 against the top 5 teams for fecks sake, having not played Sydney yet.

But yeah Hawthorn smashing North by 130 and Carlton by 60 makes them the real deal!
 
Like many pie fans, you've been lulled into a false sense of '**** we're good' by your 10 wins in a row. Lets have a look at what those 10 wins were made up of. First the easy games against teams outside the 8:
Port (home) - 24 point win
Dogs - 21 point win
Brisbane (away)- 58 point win
GC - 97 point win
Melbourne - 42 point win
Freo (home) - 29 point win

So far so good, allowed freo and port to get a bit close, especially given you played them at home, but you won all those comfortably in the end, as you should have, they all currently sit in the bottom 8.

Now the top 8 sides is where it gets a bit more concerning:
Bombers - 1 point win
Geelong - 12 point win
Adelaide (away) - 26 point win
Westcoast (home) - 3 point win

Adelaide is the only semi-comfortable win you've had over a top 8 side all year, against the other top 8 sides you've been less than convincing, especially as Geelong had more scoring shots. An unlucky bounce either way, or better accuracy from cats, and you could have very easily been 1 out of 5 against top 8 teams (including the Hawthorn loss). You'll likely respond with "but the good teams win the close ones", which is fair enough. But the really good teams convincingly beat their fellow top 8 rivals, something the pies haven't done a good job of this year. Pies are simply not as good as their current top-of-the-ladder position suggests. I'll change my mind if they can start doing more than just falling over the line (or losing as in the Hawks match) against other top 8 sides. There are at least 5 top 8 sides who would like their chances against the Pies this year (Bombers, Geelong, West Coast (especially at home), Hawks and Sydney). You play all of them in the run home, so you'll probably need to step up a gear if you want to maintain top spot. I've picked Pies in tonights game, but even that could be closer than most Pie fans suspect, given their inability to put teams above the bottom eight away this year. Of course if it is close we'll hear the "Bucks is peaking them at the right time" nonsense, rather than the reality of, "Yet, Another game where we couldn't put the opponents away".

I'd go as far as suggesting that the only reason the pies are #1 on the ladder right now is because they've deferred their hard games to the final rounds. In the final 9 rounds you play all the other teams in the top 10 apart from Adelaide (with GWS your only 'easy' game). With several teams having lopsided runs like that at the end of the year, ladder position isn't as a good an indicator of form as it usually would be. The season end ladder will obviously be clearer, but even then, with some teams playing GWS/GC twice, in terms of being a form guide, the ladder may well be the least representative for many years. Would like to say a team outside the top 4 could have the best chance for a while given how even 1-7 are, but if WC get home finals, they could easily ruin that party, obviously nobody outside top 4 will fancy a final there. There is no doubt that if Pies finish top, with their run home, they thoroughly deserve it. It is however conceivable given the rest of their draw, that they could drop not just from first, but out of the top 4 (given their rather poor percentage).

Good teams peak at years end - no use being May preimers - Pies are going at 75% and still won 10 in a row - if you don't think they are the real deal you may be in for a shock come September.
 
Yet you use Hawthorn touching up a rabble Carlton of some evidence of their superiority....if Carlton come out and belt us this Friday then you have a point.....but the more likely scenario is the pies will have a comfortable win, just like your mob did.

Explain this one away doppleganger. Two performances from Carlton couldn't be more different. Both Friday night, both MCG. Guess the only constant is their opposition eh?
 

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I think tonight just proves whats been happening all year. If you're off your game your opponent will take advantage and you will end up losing. Nothing to gain from this loss for Collingwood 10 straight due a loss and didn't turn up. Next couple of weeks will be telling
 
LoL

Collingwood have played the most players of any team bar GWS and GC, the side has been hardest hit by injuries of all teams in the league....yet are a game clear on top.

Because they've won against a lot of bottom 8 teams, and just got over the line against the top 10 teams. Will lucky to be in top 4 by the end of the weekend.

The reason they are on top is because they win, they are 3-0 against the top 5 teams for fecks sake, having not played Sydney yet.

Yeah, and won two of those by 3 points or less. Hardly convincing.

But yeah Hawthorn smashing North by 130 and Carlton by 60 makes them the real deal!

Certainly beats getting owned by Carlton...twice. How much are you planning to smash North by? What are your excuses now?

Like I said, backending all your hard games to the final 9 weeks of the season has led to your ladder position overestimating your quality. Welcome back to the pack, good luck getting back to the top with the run you have to the end of the season.
 
Explain this one away doppleganger. Two performances from Carlton couldn't be more different. Both Friday night, both MCG. Guess the only constant is their opposition eh?
What needs to be explained?

Pies lost. Struggle against the old enemy, some things never change.

Still above Hawthorn, no matter how much it stings a few of ur brethren.
 
Still above Hawthorn, no matter how much it stings a few of ur brethren.

Doesn't sting those who know what is going on. The coming draw will now realign the expectations of pies supporters. Pies probably a 5-7th side right now, given their inability to put away other top 8 sides. This has been hidden so far due to just falling over the line against some top 8 sides, and their previous 10 games including 6 of the bottom 8. Desperately need players back and form changes in their forward line. Not too late to turn things around, and Pendles will make a big difference, but the team they are putting on the park right now, is simply not very good, or rather nowhere near as good as their supporters think it is.
 
Pies probably a 5-7th side right now, given their inability to put away other top 8 sides.

On that basis, Hawthorn are nothing more than a 5th to 8th side based on their 3 wins / 3 losses record against Top 8 sides.

4 wins - 2 losses is still the best record against top 8 sides in the AFL.

I'd have us level pegging with WC & a gap to Sydney. The 4th best side is any of Adelaide, Hawthorn or Essendon.

We know when it's all said and done that Hawthorn will be exposed by Geelong when it matters most.
 
Just have to look to Carlton for the real form guide.

Nearly beat Geelong, nearly beat WC, easily beat Pies, smashed by Hawks.

Clearly the Blues, Eagle and Cats are on a similar plain, with the Hawks a Class above and Pies a rung below.

Two weeks from now the ladder will reflect this.
 
Just have to look to Carlton for the real form guide.

Nearly beat Geelong, nearly beat WC, easily beat Pies, smashed by Hawks.

Clearly the Blues, Eagle and Cats are on a similar plain, with the Hawks a Class above and Pies a rung below.

Two weeks from now the ladder will reflect this.

Is this for real? That makes no sense.

You could also say,

Sydney beat Hawthorn and Geelong.

Lost to Richmond though. Richmond a class above Hawthorn and Geelong.
 
LoL

Collingwood have played the most players of any team bar GWS and GC, the side has been hardest hit by injuries of all teams in the league....yet are a game clear on top.

The reason they are on top is because they win, they are 3-0 against the top 5 teams for fecks sake, having not played Sydney yet.

But yeah Hawthorn smashing North by 130 and Carlton by 60 makes them the real deal!

So whats your BS excuse now? Carlton were missing Murphy, Laidler, Henderson, Waite, Thornton, Davies and Ellard, Hampson out first quarter and Simpson KOD. What Collingwood had an off night? Thank you for opening the door for Hawthorn, btw lol at Chris Flaws :)
 
Carlton have had the biggest form fluctuation of all teams.....first 3 rounds they were first in most stats, since guys like Murphy, Waite, Carazzo, Kreuzer, Judd succumbed, or battled through injury, they are now about the 14th ranked side since rd 3.

Yet you use Hawthorn touching up a rabble Carlton of some evidence of their superiority....if Carlton come out and belt us this Friday then you have a point.....but the more likely scenario is the pies will have a comfortable win, just like your mob did.

Richmond were playing well at the start of the year, they went with Carlton and Collingwood basically all the way, just 15 min lapses in concentration cost them. They also pushed West Coast and Geelong for the full 4 quarters....all in the first 5 rounds. They were taking it up to all the good sides at the start of the year, but were falling short....against Hawthorn their better midfield simply ran over the top.


Collingwood actually wins interstate, unlike Hawthorn.

But yeah, West Coast can add Kennedy....but I guess we cant add in Pendles, Tarrant, Ball, Johnson, Didak, Krak



Who said dominant.....2 game gap,

Good teams win the close games...they have a belief, confidence that they will win......Hawthorn dont have that, when challenged they fall to pieces.



Geelong did it all the way through 2011....they would play ordinary football but get the W....then finally in the last few rounds of the season they brought their A game.

Collingwood were destroying sides in 2011.....where did it get them??


Yeah Collingwood lost in rd 1...what is their to address??

An inexperienced Collingwood team were over-run by a more experienced Hawks outfit after wasting chances early. Surprised the Pies got so close actually.


Will have plenty of meaning, will shape top 4 and potential home final.

The games in the second half of the year give indicators to how teams will perform come finals time...the result isn't always the most important factor though....but this year with the race for top 4 looking pretty tight a close loss may be more damning than in previous years.

Prophetic....
 

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