List Mgmt. The Hawks - System? Talent? What type of side are we?

[Barry Damage]

Don’t think we are anymore talented than our opponents, (well most of them). To put the question into perspective, one needs to ask would Sam be having the same success if he were coaching someone else? I think he would. I thinks he’s fantastic at getting his team to play at their optimal level for significant periods. This has only evolved during this season as the players become more predictable to each other. Jordan Lewis has gone on record as saying he’s the highest IQ football person he knows. Someone else (I can’t remember who), said his other great asset is his ability to articulate his strategies in a concise way.

That was Hodgey

 

[The Chad and I]

Don’t think we are anymore talented than our opponents, (well most of them). To put the question into perspective, one needs to ask would Sam be having the same success if he were coaching someone else? I think he would. I thinks he’s fantastic at getting his team to play at their optimal level for significant periods. This has only evolved during this season as the players become more predictable to each other. Jordan Lewis has gone on record as saying he’s the highest IQ football person he knows. Someone else (I can’t remember who), said his other great asset is his ability to articulate his strategies in a concise way.

Football IQ, surely?

 

[The Chad and I]

The simplest tell is this:

- make a list of our best 28 players.

How many of them would be highly desired by every team in the competition in their system?

• Weddle
• Day
• Dear
• Watson
• Sicily
• Moore
• Newcombe
• Scrimshaw
• Hardwick
• D'Ambrosio
• MacDonald
• Worpel
• Ginnivan (this year's form)

I'll take this a step further and say that around 30-40% of top 10 picks don't end up as good as the players on this list.

 

[Brishawk]

It's a fair bit of change but he said the core was here, not that the list as it was could win a premiership. The core of our team at the moment were on the list back then, Sic, Newc, Day, Moore, Worp, Nash. The guys that fire when we win. Would say the only bloke he'd have seen as a core player back then that isn't currently killing it for us is Lewis.

Seems a bit of a short list for a core especially given where nash and worpel were at before the 2023 season. If some said they had 6-7 guys on a list capable of playing in the next premiership team, its only about a quarter if the number of players you need. Carlton have crips, curnow, weitering, mckay, walsh, mcgovern. That is a complete spine plus a mid and a running defender. Their problem is most of the rest are trash. So what does saying they have the core when its the squad that matters?

 

[KermitJagger]

Seems a bit of a short list for a core especially given where nash and worpel were at before the 2023 season. If some said they had 6-7 guys on a list capable of playing in the next premiership team, its only about a quarter if the number of players you need. Carlton have crips, curnow, weitering, mckay, walsh, mcgovern. That is a complete spine plus a mid and a running defender. Their problem is most of the rest are trash. So what does saying they have the core when its the squad that matters?

It's not a very short list. That's what a core is.

How many players played in 08 as well as the threepeat? That was our core. It is the list of key players around which we built. Richmond's list of core players was even shorter.

People scoffed at Sam saying that because they thought our best players weren't at the club yet, they'd need to be acquired or drafted. Clearly Sam was correct.

 

[kazzooka]

You don't make finals and then win a final without a decent chunk of talent in your side .

People concentrate on the draft number rather than the players actual talent.
Dear , CMac and even Weddle ( teens) all fall out of the 'elite' talent group of draft .
There performance is exactly that though.
We have others too.

You need both to be a success for sustained periods

Yep, and this was the mistake we made in 2008 when losing Snr players and thinking we had all this elite untapped talent ready to go, but it wasn't as good as the picks suggested it would be.

Dowler, Thorp, Mustin, Ellis, Tuck, Bailey, Morton, Renouf.

 

[kazzooka]

The simplest tell is this:

- make a list of our best 28 players.

How many of them would be highly desired by every team in the competition in their system?

• Weddle
• Day
• Dear
• Watson
• Sicily
• Moore
• Newcombe
• Scrimshaw
• Hardwick
• D'Ambrosio
• MacDonald
• Worpel
• Ginnivan (this year's form)

That's 13 players.
Breust and Gunston I will leave out bc of their ages, but obviously all-time greats.

You could make an argument for others like Nash, Meek, Amon, and Impey too.

Every single team would find a way to fit those players into their starting 22.

...and I haven't even included Ward and MacKenzie, our best young midfield talent.

Meek,Amon and Nash have recently been on the market and garnered offers from many clubs. There is imperial evidence that they are highly desired, Amon was the best free agent in the year he came over and many sides chased him and Port wanted to keep him. Meek had many clubs chasing him due to his WAFL form and after this year he'd have nearly everyone after him.

Only need to see the 6 year contract that Nash got to know he had heavy interest from other clubs.

 

[HedgeFund]

To be fair, 5 of our starting 6 forwards last night were recruited over last offseason. Mass also not on the list a year ago. amon, Meek, mckenzie and weddle were also not on the list or had just joined the club and had played zero games for the club. Scrimshaw was on the list but under performing. Frost was maligned. Impey struggling. That is a hell of a lot of change from the time he made that comment to now.

Quite a few you’ve mentioned were on the list, they just weren’t performing the way Clarko, and then Sam, had hoped/expected.

The key is the club backed Sam in to help those players improve and/or return to their previous levels of output.

Doesn’t mean they weren’t there, it’s just people despaired that they “weren’t up to it” or “the game’s gone past them”.

Sam knows himself as an undrafted kid who had to play VFL at 19 that not every gun player is going get snapped up as an 18 year old. Likewise, not every player that gets onto the list is going to improve at the same rate as others.

 

[mustang]

The simplest tell is this:

- make a list of our best 28 players.

How many of them would be highly desired by every team in the competition in their system?

• Weddle
• Day
• Dear
• Watson
• Sicily
• Moore
• Newcombe
• Scrimshaw
• Hardwick
• D'Ambrosio
• MacDonald
• Worpel
• Ginnivan (this year's form)

That's 13 players.
Breust and Gunston I will leave out bc of their ages, but obviously all-time greats.

You could make an argument for others like Nash, Meek, Amon, and Impey too.

Every single team would find a way to fit those players into their starting 22.

...and I haven't even included Ward and MacKenzie, our best young midfield talent.

I agree I feel Ginnivan is only really scratching the surface on what he could become if he went into the midfield mix more often, the game changed vs Dogs once he went into there same with Croc.

 

[Gaborone]

Wanted to open up a discussion on this so as to not clog other threads. There has been a lot said about our side being heavily system oriented and without enough talent, and I was curious to get the fan's perspective. What do you think we are?

Personally I think we are much more talented than we are given credit for, particularly in the bottom 6 of the best 22 compared to most other clubs - but also at the top end. Here's one example:

Cam Rayner was selected Pick 1 in 2017, and has played relatively above average footy this year which earned him 40 man AA squad inclusion. If he was a MSD pick up like Jai Newcombe, would he have been in the squad? Probably not. He probably wouldn't have even stayed on the list for that long. For some reason the expectation that Rayner will become a star is always there, but Newcombe on the other hand is always seen as a player who has hit his ceiling. The ceiling being that he was a MSD pick, how talented could a MSD pick be? Apparently needing to re-adjust his ceiling every time he improves hasn't made it click with others yet that at 23 he is now one of the best mids in the comp.

Our list is replete with players whose ceilings are anchored down by where they were selected in the draft. Moore, Worpel, D'Ambrosio, Macdonald, Newcombe. These guys are stars, they're talent. Maybe not established, but talent.

System is one part - and we're great with it - but I feel we're just as talented as most in it, even if it's not recognised yet.

DOn't forget Sam Mitchell's history

 

[Brishawk]

Quite a few you’ve mentioned were on the list, they just weren’t performing the way Clarko, and then Sam, had hoped/expected.

The key is the club backed Sam in to help those players improve and/or return to their previous levels of output.

Doesn’t mean they weren’t there, it’s just people despaired that they “weren’t up to it” or “the game’s gone past them”.

Sam knows himself as an undrafted kid who had to play VFL at 19 that not every gun player is going get snapped up as an 18 year old. Likewise, not every player that gets onto the list is going to improve at the same rate as others.

i referred to 9 that arrived following the 2022 season or later. This was Based on this comment being made in the 2022 offseason.

I named 3 who were on the list under clarkson. 9 v 3. Is that what you mean by quite a few?

 

[Wile E Coyote]

I think the narrative will change from next season.

Given we've defied all expectations this year and have a system that stands up in finals (systematic dismantling of the Dogs) I'm sure the talent that typically only those in the club and in this board have seen will become more apparent to the media.

 

[Brishawk]

It's not a very short list. That's what a core is.

How many players played in 08 as well as the threepeat? That was our core. It is the list of key players around which we built. Richmond's list of core players was even shorter.

People scoffed at Sam saying that because they thought our best players weren't at the club yet, they'd need to be acquired or drafted. Clearly Sam was correct.

I dont even think its our current core, even under your definition. In 2013-2015 we had gibson, burgoyne, lake, gunston, breust, stratton and smith who were all clutch in big game and around whom our game was built that were not there in 2008.

In the current side, we havent built the side around nash and worpel. Important as they are the whole game is built around elite kicking and intercepting behind the ball and hard runners ahead of it. So to me the core pf the current side is sicily, scrim, weddle, and amon down back, moore, macdonald and mass high on the outside with day and newk in the middle as match winners. Meek in the ruck is also crtical. Our system wont work with no kpf but we seem to be able to shuffle things around with what we have and make it work. Ginni and watson at ground level provide pressure and a scoring threat too and i dont want to underestimate them. Dear will no doubt be a core player for us if he isnt already.

my original point was if sam thinks the core of the side was on the list and people scoffed, it wasnt unreasonable given the state of the list then v now. The success now isnt a product of simply developing what we had and adding a couple of pieces, there has been wholesale changes to the forward line and important players were added after the statement was made.

 

[Davo-27]

Wanted to open up a discussion on this so as to not clog other threads. There has been a lot said about our side being heavily system oriented and without enough talent, and I was curious to get the fan's perspective. What do you think we are?

Personally I think we are much more talented than we are given credit for, particularly in the bottom 6 of the best 22 compared to most other clubs - but also at the top end. Here's one example:

Cam Rayner was selected Pick 1 in 2017, and has played relatively above average footy this year which earned him 40 man AA squad inclusion. If he was a MSD pick up like Jai Newcombe, would he have been in the squad? Probably not. He probably wouldn't have even stayed on the list for that long. For some reason the expectation that Rayner will become a star is always there, but Newcombe on the other hand is always seen as a player who has hit his ceiling. The ceiling being that he was a MSD pick, how talented could a MSD pick be? Apparently needing to re-adjust his ceiling every time he improves hasn't made it click with others yet that at 23 he is now one of the best mids in the comp.

Our list is replete with players whose ceilings are anchored down by where they were selected in the draft. Moore, Worpel, D'Ambrosio, Macdonald, Newcombe. These guys are stars, they're talent. Maybe not established, but talent.

System is one part - and we're great with it - but I feel we're just as talented as most in it, even if it's not recognised yet.

The point about Newcombe seems a little off, if you remember Newcombe started the year poorly, it took him until like round 7 or 8 to get going, also most mids in the AA team averaged between 31 to 28 disposals per game, Newc averaged 23 disposals per game after the last round, he is one of the best mids in the comp, he just had an inconsistent year, atm he is firing and that's helping our finals push.

I think our system is pushing improvement and talent on our list had a big boost with Chol, Ginni and D'Ambrosio joining via trade as well as Dear and Watson having impactful first years and further improvement from Day, Newc, Croc, Weddle, Scrimshaw even Impey is having close to career best year, we increased our talent depth to a point that we have approx 5 players with AFL experience and capable playing at BHH most weeks.

 

[QuietB]

Ratten mentioned privately over the summer that we were one of the hardest running sides in the comp, and so hard to combat when he was in charge at the Roos.

We are definitely seeing the rewards of system, but we are also very talented(particularly by foot) and work extremely hard.

Talented by foot is the key for me.

Take Carlton for example (or Melbourne, Freo, yada yada), I have never seen them take a risk with a low flat and hard kick that simply cuts the opposition press to pieces if you get it right. Hawthorn try this 10-20 times a game and very rarely screw it up. And something like this can be the difference between looking like you have amazing ball movement (Hawthorn) and looking like the most stagnant offence in the league (Carlton).

The number of times I see opposition teams take the easy chip option and not the risk of the hard option always surprises me. Hawthorn seem to recruit and develop players that can do it (Sic, Scrim, Amon, Mass, etc) and the coach actually instructs them to take the hard option. Because the reward - blow the opposition press up - exceeds the risk - turnover.

Having said that there is a massive amount of system Mitchell has implemented. When they take these risks with kicking the Hawks are rarely exposed the other way when it goes bad - there is something they do defensively to set up against the risk - and they rarely miss. Their ability to cover the ground is also a massive part of this.

 

[mustang]

I still think we are missing a few positions

A second winger to go with D'Ambrosio
A second KF to go with Dear.
A mid size forward( to replace Gunston)

And another high quality midfielder but with pace and skill different to what we have, as if Day is out Moore has to go into midfield.

Hopefully we can pick this up this year or next.

I see Chol as a second ruck in the Hale role if we can get a second forward.

If we got these we would be even better.

 

[QuietB]

Both. The shallow media and casual supporters don’t recognise our talent. They probably never will as well.

I was thinking about this last night, Jackson Macrae has more AAs than Luke Breust. Stuff like that just doesn’t sit well with me.

But Luke Bruest has two more premierships and about 500 more goals than Jackson Macrae so it is all good.

Let all the other clubs fawn over their superstars, Hawthorn will take a gun midfielder like Hodge, move him to half back cause that is what is needed to win, and get on with winning premierships.

 

[cs61]

It's bit the chicken or the egg, in the sense that it seems our system and player development has gotten the most out of the talent we have, but we are able to implement our system due to the type of players we have acquired. What happens if Scrimshaw's career if he doesn't leave Gold Coast? Worpel was in the VFL for a stint before the advent of Burge and Mitchell, and now he's A grader. Would Calsher Dear be playing like this at North Melbourne this year? D'Ambrossio has gone from fringe player to be unlucky not to be AA wing. All those guys have clear talent and elite traits, but our system and player development has brought the best out of them and nurtured that talent. Seems we identify the players with the traits we want to get them best working in the system we want to play, and both are intrinsic to each other.

 

[CD Xbow]

Sam told the AGM over 18months ago that the core of our next premiership challenging side was sitting in front of him. He could see the talent.

People scoffed.

I felt the same, I thought last year we should have been challenging for a low end berth in the 8 and was disappointed we didn't. With our recruits/draftee this year I was sure we were going to start with a bang, but we fizzled. I felt like it was time for the warm bath and razor blades after round 5. We couldn't take a trick. Sam had the vision but the team couldn't pull it off. The lads persisted, challenged themselves and with a few changes in personal we become competitive. Seemingly minor changes in talent and minor tweaks in system lead to huge improvement in outcomes. I suspect some of it were things that don't fit clearly into Talent Vs System, eg belief, heart etc.

 

[Cyril says]

Many weeks ago Peter Hudson said that he had been watching footy for 60 years and he has never seen anyone like Watson.

Watson is a genuine point of difference, putting the fear of god into defenders near the ball - tackles and tackling.

 

[HedgeFund]

i referred to 9 that arrived following the 2022 season or later. This was Based on this comment being made in the 2022 offseason.

I named 3 who were on the list under clarkson. 9 v 3. Is that what you mean by quite a few?

Yep

 

[Brishawk]

Yep

I am 100% in Sam’s corner. He has done great things for the club and got the most out of players that would have struggled under clarkson. Nash is the poster boy for this but i think frost, who has always been a good defender for us, is better this year because same has got him to simplify his decisions and made the players around him predictable. I also have no doubt that what we are seeing from chol is largely because of the environment same has created at the club. If you are arguing that then we are in agreement.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

To be fair, 5 of our starting 6 forwards last night were recruited over last offseason. Mass also not on the list a year ago. amon, Meek, mckenzie and weddle were also not on the list or had just joined the club and had played zero games for the club. Scrimshaw was on the list but under performing. Frost was maligned. Impey struggling. That is a hell of a lot of change from the time he made that comment to now.

I don't get the argument here. Of our top 26 players this year (not including Lewis due to his injury woes) the bolded players below were on the list at the time Mitchell made the comment.

James Sicily
Sam Frost
Jarman Impey
Blake Hardwick
Jack Scrimshaw
Changkuoth Jiath
Will Day
Massimo D'Ambrosio
Jai Newcombe
Harry Morrison
Karl Amon
James Worpel
Conor Nash
Josh Ward
Finn Maginness
Cam Mackenzie
Mabior Chol
Jack Gunston
Calsher Dear
Luke Breust
Connor Macdonald
Dylan Moore
Jack Ginnivan
Nick Watson
Lloyd Meek
Josh Weddle

That's close to 80% of the core contingent of our 2024 sides who were on the list when Same said he felt the 'core/nucleus' of our next flag side was already on the list. Note Gunston isn't included in that but Mitchell couldn't wait to bring him back. I am not sure what you want to define the core/nucleus as being in terms of a percentage but I think he got pretty damn close.

The context of those players is also utterly moot - but I will still offer some rebuttals to the needless caveats.

Mackenzie and Weddle had only joined the list - okay, sure - that doesn't mean Sam didn't know what they could be capable of and why we recruited them. He stated in an interview post the 2022 draft that he hadn't directed McKenzie how to draft but that if he came away with Mackenzie and Weddle after night 1 that he would be a happy man. We subsequently made big moves to get Weddle - so I don't think his development would be a shock to McKenzie or Mitchell. Likewise with Mackenzie.

'Frost was maligned' - by who? People on Bigfooty, sure. He's always been picked by Sam and his form has gone from strength to strength - so once again I think Sam knew what Frosty could be capable of before the Bigfooty brains trust did.

Scrimshaw was underperforming. Yup - and Sam/the club has put a lot of hard yards in getting him to his potential best - I don't think Sam was sitting there in 2022 thinking Scrimshaw was untalented.

Amon and Meek were recruited in 2022 so once again I am sure had some insight into them being targets and was aware of what they were capable of and could bring to our team - particularly Amon as we were a suitor all year. Meek may have been a bit of happenstance I will grant you because the O'Meara trade happened fast and at that time the ruck rule change hadn't impacted Reeves. Even if we take Meek out of the equation it brings that percentage down to 73% - still a fair swathe.

Impey was struggling. Again as has been pointed out here too many times already - Impey's form was injury-impacted due to screws in his foot. Once he was free of this he came back to his best in 2023 and 2024 - again I don't think Sam was in the dark on any of this and knew what he could get out of Jars going forward.

So - anywhere between 70-80% of the current makeup of our side week to week was on the list when Sam made the claim at the AGM in 2022. I think it is needlessly petty to try and make any argument against it being a pretty decent prediction being that multiple commentators are now saying we are a flag contender.

 

[Brishawk]

I don't get the argument here. Of our top 26 players this year (not including Lewis due to his injury woes) the bolded players below were on the list at the time Mitchell made the comment.

James Sicily
Sam Frost
Jarman Impey
Blake Hardwick
Jack Scrimshaw
Changkuoth Jiath
Will Day
Massimo D'Ambrosio
Jai Newcombe
Harry Morrison
Karl Amon
James Worpel
Conor Nash
Josh Ward
Finn Maginness
Cam Mackenzie
Mabior Chol
Jack Gunston
Calsher Dear
Luke Breust
Connor Macdonald
Dylan Moore
Jack Ginnivan
Nick Watson
Lloyd Meek
Josh Weddle

That's close to 80% of the core contingent of our 2024 sides who were on the list when Same said he felt the 'core/nucleus' of our next flag side was already on the list. Note Gunston isn't included in that but Mitchell couldn't wait to bring him back. I am not sure what you want to define the core/nucleus as being in terms of a percentage but I think he got pretty damn close.

The context of those players is also utterly moot - but I will still offer some rebuttals to the needless caveats.

Mackenzie and Weddle had only joined the list - okay, sure - that doesn't mean Sam didn't know what they could be capable of and why we recruited them. He stated in an interview post the 2022 draft that he hadn't directed McKenzie how to draft but that if he came away with Mackenzie and Weddle after night 1 that he would be a happy man. We subsequently made big moves to get Weddle - so I don't think his development would be a shock to McKenzie or Mitchell. Likewise with Mackenzie.

'Frost was maligned' - by who? People on Bigfooty, sure. He's always been picked by Sam and his form has gone from strength to strength - so once again I think Sam knew what Frosty could be capable of before the Bigfooty brains trust did.

Scrimshaw was underperforming. Yup - and Sam/the club has put a lot of hard yards in getting him to his potential best - I don't think Sam was sitting there in 2022 thinking Scrimshaw was untalented.

Amon and Meek were recruited in 2022 so once again I am sure had some insight into them being targets and was aware of what they were capable of and could bring to our team - particularly Amon as we were a suitor all year. Meek may have been a bit of happenstance I will grant you because the O'Meara trade happened fast and at that time the ruck rule change hadn't impacted Reeves. Even if we take Meek out of the equation it brings that percentage down to 73% - still a fair swathe.

Impey was struggling. Again as has been pointed out here too many times already - Impey's form was injury-impacted due to screws in his foot. Once he was free of this he came back to his best in 2023 and 2024 - again I don't think Sam was in the dark on any of this and knew what he could get out of Jars going forward.

So - anywhere between 70-80% of the current makeup of our side week to week was on the list when Sam made the claim at the AGM in 2022. I think it is needlessly petty to try and make any argument against it being a pretty decent prediction being that multiple commentators are now saying we are a flag contender.

9 players were either not on the list or had yet to play a game (gunston had been traded if i have the timing right). A further 3 were not performing to the level now for whatever reasons. Is it really that unreasonable for people to scoff at a suggestion by sam that he had a premiership core in place already?

 

[theiaofseed]

9 players were either not on the list or had yet to play a game (gunston had been traded if i have the timing right). A further 3 were not performing to the level now for whatever reasons. Is it really that unreasonable for people to scoff at a suggestion by sam that he had a premiership core in place already?

Talented is permanent form is temporary. I think its more reasonable to assume the coaches/recruiters that spend years watching players developed to have solid foundation to understand what x players will become. Can you realistically argue his comments weren't close to the mark?