The Iowa Thread

[Qsaint]

CNN calling it for Huckabee.

Mormons are poision with Pentacostal type churches, Romney is not going to have a good ride. Where is the Ex Hero of 911?

 

[CharlieG]

37% counted for the Democratic caucus.
Obama - 33%
Clinton - 32%
Edwards - 32%
Richardson - 2%
Others - 1%

 

[CharlieG]

Mormons are poision with Pentacostal type churches, Romney is not going to have a good ride. Where is the Ex Hero of 911?

He hasn't campaigned in Iowa. He's focusing on New Hampshire.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

CNN reports that with 40% counted for the Democratic caucus:

Obama - 33% (272 state delegates)
Edwards - 32% (260 state delegates)
Clinton - 32% (259 state delegates)
Richardson - 2% (14 state delegates)
Biden - 1% (8 state delegates)
Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich - 0% (0 state delegates)

For the Republicans (25% counted):

Huckabee - 35% (7,809 votes)
Romney - 24% (5,355 votes)
Thompson - 14% (3,178 votes) (surprise, IMHO)
McCain - 12% (2,638 votes)
Paul - 11% (2,425 votes)
Giuliani - 4% (830 votes)
Hunter - 0% (72 votes)

 

[Qsaint]

54% counted Obama opens a 2% gap

 

[utility]

CNN:

Democrats
Obama 34%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 31%

Republicans
Huckabee 31%
Romney 23%
Thompson 13%
McCain 12%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 10%

 

[CharlieG]

Starting to look good for Obama. 61% counted. Obama 35%. Clinton and Edwards both 32%. Richardson on 2% and Biden 1%.

On the Republican side, with 41% counted: Huckabee 31%, Romney 23%, Thompson 13%, McCain 12%, Giuliani 11%, Paul 10%.

 

[Qsaint]

59% Obama Predicted winner with 35%,

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Still widening - Obama has 35% (500 delegates) from Edwards 31% (447 delegates) and Clinton 31% (444 delegates), after 65% counted.

Huckabee still well in control, but Rudy is moving up - from 4% to 11% and giving Thompson (13%) and McCain (12%) some fight.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Edwards and Clinton separated by 4 delegates after 69% counted. Obama way out in front - surely he won't be caught now. Two delegates are "uncommitted".

 

[CharlieG]

CNN calling it for Obama.

 

[camsmith]

Looks like Huckabee will win. Romney needs a strong second, still a bit too far behind for that.

Clinton is in trouble but it was always going to hard with the large amount of turnout here and given she is hardly anyones "second choice" candidate to those votes flow over to Obama and Edwards.

NH will give us a better gauge on it all.

Edit: Fox News calling it for Obama!

 

[Qsaint]

Turnout for the Dems has been huge, most venues have proved too small

 

[CharlieG]

In terms of national convention delegates, does anyone know if it's proportional or winner-takes-all?

 

[camsmith]

Pretty sure its winner takes all CharlieG, would need to be confirmed though.

Update: Hmm... Im not sure:

Caucus: A method of selecting party nominees for president used by some states; in order to participate, registered party members must attend a local caucus meeting. Once the caucus begins, voters group themselves by candidate or undecided, give speeches on behalf of their candidates, and try to convince others to join their group. At the end of the caucus, party officials count the numbers in each candidate’s group, and report the numbers to the state party organisation. The state party then awards candidates delegates to the national convention - either on a proportional or winner-takes-all basis - where they vote for their preferred nominee

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article2672620.ece

 

[CharlieG]

Duncan Hunter only has 168 votes with 41% counted. He should drop out soon. The other six Republicans have all done well enough to stay in the race.

 

[CharlieG]

Obama 36%, Edwards 31%, Clinton 30%.

 

[Z_K]

Excellent.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Massive win for Obama.

36 percent of the vote in a state full of white agrarians.

He is going to get significant momentum from this.

 

[CharlieG]

Something wonky is going on. Giuliani just lost several thousand votes on the CNN count. I don't know what has happened there, but it does put Ron Paul clearly in fifth place, close behind Thompson and McCain.

 

[CharlieG]

Massive win for Obama.

36 percent of the vote in a state full of white agrarians.

He is going to get significant momentum from this.

Clinton will most likely win New Hampshire, but if Obama finishes ahead of Edwards then he goes into Michigan which is the first state with a significant black population (15%). Huge chance now.

 

[CharlieG]

82% counted, Obama now at 37%!

 

[Clay Davis]

Clinton will most likely win New Hampshire, but if Obama finishes ahead of Edwards then he goes into Michigan which is the first state with a significant black population (15%). Huge chance now.

Isn't polling saying that Obama is ahead so far in New Hampshire?

His anti-war stance is stronger than Clinton's - and that's a big issue in NH.

 

[usalion]

In terms of national convention delegates, does anyone know if it's proportional or winner-takes-all?

This is only the first step- they go through more selection processes later- at which time, candidates may/will have dropped out of the race....think it was Richard Gephart who won several years ago- and by the time the convention came around, his delegates had been released to another candidate, because RG was gone from the race quickly.

Gives Obama and Huckabee a big boost, obviously, but this won't be settled until early February at the earliest....

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Clinton 4 behind Edwards. She'll hope to overhaul Edwards and at least finish second behind Obama.

Giuliani's situation is weird. He was on 4%, then jumped to 11%, but is back down to 4%.