Analysis The Matt Taberner effect

[WaywardSonSon]

7 goals from only 8 kicks is a solid effort

It's a lethal left!!!!

 

[FreoRicci]

It's a lethal left!!!!

And deceptive right

 

[WaywardSonSon]

And deceptive right

Hell yeah, I had no idea he was so adept on it!

 

[samFFC]

 

[E Shed]

No player has ever confused me more.
Every time I write him off he comes out better & I have to admit I was wrong.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve back flipped on him.
I’m finally convinced. He’s the real deal & I’ve never known a player come from so far back by sheer hard work & persistence.
Respect.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Outshined]

Very happy for the big man. He undoubtedly hates the attention but he really deserved to kick a big bag and receive some overdue accolades from the media.

Hope he can stay fit and keep benefitting from the quicker ball movement.

 

[kp junior]

Very happy for the big man. He undoubtedly hates the attention but he really deserved to kick a big bag and receive some overdue accolades from the media.

Hope he can stay fit and keep benefitting from the quicker ball movement.

How was the kick on the right on the half back line, after a mark, when he could have just used his left?

 

[Dockeroo]

It’s ok he’s got Essendon next week. Usually kicks 4 or 5 against them!

Don’t like to say I told you so but….
I told you so.

 

[freo1997]

Just putting it out there….

Is Tabs the 2nd best KPF in our history?

Obviously after Pav there isn’t many others. Mods only played 2 and a bit seasons, Clive more of a medium tall/Small and I guess Jlo is around the mark.

 

[freo_leo29]

Just putting it out there….

Is Tabs the 2nd best KPF in our history?

Obviously after Pav there isn’t many others. Mods only played 2 and a bit seasons, Clive more of a medium tall/Small and I guess Jlo is around the mark.

Yeah he is

He has overtaken Modra in total goals for Freo and is going to overtake JL this year

That's doing it in an era where goals are much harder to come by

Only Modra, JL and Croad had better returns in a year as a tall for Freo too (excluding Pav ofc) but Taberner has kicked his goals in a harder era and has not played a full season


Waterhouse, Medhurst and Mayne are the other competitors but technically they are smalls or mediums who played tall or played a leadup game (in the case of Medhurst and Mayne for sure)

 

[freo_leo29]

Taberner is now our 11th highest goal scorer having overtaken Tony Modra

1. Pav - 700
2. Walters - 292
3. Ballas - 254
4. Wiz - 224
5. Mayney - 196
6. Clive - 178
=7. Medhurst - 166
=7. JL - 166
9. Fyfe - 164
10. Mundy - 156
11. Tabs - 152


Could get to 6th this year

 

[freo1997]

Taberner is now our 11th highest goal scorer having overtaken Tony Modra

1. Pav - 700
2. Walters - 292
3. Ballas - 254
4. Wiz - 224
5. Mayney - 196
6. Clive - 178
=7. Medhurst - 166
=7. JL - 166
9. Fyfe - 164
10. Mundy - 156
11. Tabs - 152


Could get to 6th this year

Still remember Clive had the record for a few years. JL definitely could’ve kicked more if his knees held up.

 

[bone2468]

Our own left footed Kepler

 

[sabre_ac]

Still remember Clive had the record for a few years. JL definitely could’ve kicked more if his knees held up.

I haven't thought about Clive for years!

1st draft pick as a 21 yo...I wonder if that would happen today with the advances in sports science. Often the high draft picks are selected with a certain future ceiling in mind, with Clive we were getting the finished product physically.

Good for Tabs climbing the list, I was surprised to see Walters so high up.

 

[Van_Dyke]

Taberner is now our 11th highest goal scorer having overtaken Tony Modra

1. Pav - 700
2. Walters - 292
3. Ballas - 254
4. Wiz - 224
5. Mayney - 196
6. Clive - 178
=7. Medhurst - 166
=7. JL - 166
9. Fyfe - 164
10. Mundy - 156
11. Tabs - 152


Could get to 6th this year

reckon there's every chance he'll end up challenging Ballas for 3rd if he can stay fit in the next few tears

 

[freo_leo29]

reckon there's every chance he'll end up challenging Ballas for 3rd if he can stay fit in the next few tears

Staying fit is the key, its the one thing he hasn't been able to do

Got very close in the short season (with shorter games) but if that was a full season then he missed a chunk at the end, per usual


We really need him fit, if we become a good team then that will also help up his goal rate

 

[mightymouse75]

Taberner is now our 11th highest goal scorer having overtaken Tony Modra

1. Pav - 700
2. Walters - 292
3. Ballas - 254
4. Wiz - 224
5. Mayney - 196
6. Clive - 178
=7. Medhurst - 166
=7. JL - 166
9. Fyfe - 164
10. Mundy - 156
11. Tabs - 152


Could get to 6th this year

Taberner is now our 11th highest goal scorer having overtaken Tony Modra

1. Pav - 700
2. Walters - 292
3. Ballas - 254
4. Wiz - 224
5. Mayney - 196
6. Clive - 178
=7. Medhurst - 166
=7. JL - 166
9. Fyfe - 164
10. Mundy - 156
11. Tabs - 152


Could get to 6th this year

Shows you how we have always struggled in the forward department. Should never have surrendered medhurst

 

[TheMcManusNose]

No player has ever confused me more.
Every time I write him off he comes out better & I have to admit I was wrong.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve back flipped on him.
I’m finally convinced. He’s the real deal & I’ve never known a player come from so far back by sheer hard work & persistence.
Respect.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He is an engima

He is good at running and marking (nowadays) but absolutely nothing else. Lacks general football sense, lacks athleticism with the exception of a tank, can kick well 45m at most off only one foot but I don't think you'd call him elite by foot.

Visually he just has so many moments where you'd think if only he had the nous or skill of half of the other KPFs in the competition he'd be the best KPF in th game. Which he probably would because he's so good at the things he's actually good at.

I think it's why he's taken so long to get to this point. But honestly with the brief exception of a few months of Hogan teasing there's been literally no one else on our list who could have possibly actually worked out as a #1 KPF since Pav.

I actually almost think we should rename this thread to the Rory Lobb effect because he's the now maligned one who takes a decent tall and a focus off the clear number 1 KPF we have in Tabs.

 

[bushchook]

I haven't thought about Clive for years!

1st draft pick as a 21 yo...I wonder if that would happen today with the advances in sports science. Often the high draft picks are selected with a certain future ceiling in mind, with Clive we were getting the finished product physically.

Good for Tabs climbing the list, I was surprised to see Walters so high up.

James Hird went in the 70s in the same era, nobody knew what they were doing back then

 

[PurpleEyes]

Some stats for Taberner that may surprise many here (well they certainly surprised me);

Since 2019 (so ignoring his first 60 games from his first 6 seasons 2013-2018), he has played 43 games (out of a possible 65 Freo games).
He has kicked at least 1 goal in 40 of those games.
In 1 of those 3 in which he did not kick at least one goal, he was subbed out injured after only playing 26% Time On Ground (2021 R15).
Tabs has kicked 83 goals in those 43 games.
In those 43 games played, he has averaged 1.93 goals per game (that includes 2 games in which he was subbed out and played <60% Time on Ground ... if you exclude those 2 games, he has averaged exactly 2 goals per game since 2019).
In those 43 games, Freo kicked 470 goals. So Tabs kicked 17.66% (83/470) of those total goals kicked.
And 89 Contested Marks at 2.07 CMs/game.

Now if we put that in perspective and compare it to the premier AFL goal kicker for the years 2019-current, Tom Hawkins;

• played 74 games (out of a possible 75 games, includes finals)
• 8 times Hawkins has not kicked a goal in those 74 games.
• kicked 180 goals in those 74 games.
• never been subbed out and always played 85%+ Time On Ground.
• averaged 2.43 goals per game.
• Geelong kicked 883 goals. Hawkins kicked 20.38% (180/883) of those total goals kicked.
• 116 Contested Marks at 1.57 CMs/game.

Hawkins has far greater goal assists and Tabs has better inside 50's which is understandable given Hawkins is more of a deep forward than Tabs.

A couple of weeks back I posted the above stats about Tabs that show his recent form is not far behind the league's elite key forwards.

So when I recently heard Lloyd say that Freo still lack a quality forward, stating Tabs isn't up there with the likes of Hawkins, Cameron, Daniher, it again provoked me to dig a little deeper to see where Tabs stands amongst other current forwards.

Personally, I think many appear to still judge him on his earlier career which was a work in progress and impacted by his struggles to consistently stay in the team (due to injury, form and competition).

So anyways, I went and gathered the stats for some other forwards to compare to Tabs.
The sample of forwards looked at in detail included; J.Cameron (GE), Daniher (BL), Franklin (SY), Hawkins (GE), J.Kennedy (WC), H.McKay (CA), Walker (AD).
I then averaged their last 20 games, 50 games, 100 games & total careers.
Tabs certainly lags behind them when looking at career and last 100 games, but he fairs quite well when looking at more recent performances.

For instance, when looking at their last 20 games, the data suggests;

• Tabs is about 10% off elite forwards like Hawkins, Cameron and Franklin.
• But Tabs recent numbers (for 20 & up to his last 50 games range) look better than Daniher's.
• Tex Walker is actually the standout key forward in terms of most recent 20 games.
• Harry McKay (youngest of those sampled) recent form makes him a key forward due to his marking capabilities.
• & J. Kennedy is well past his best and is a clear last in this field of forwards reviewed (for both 20 & 50 games).
• Hawkins and Franklin have been the obvious consistent strong producers in their last 50 games and continue currently with good form.

In summary, the recent numbers I am looking at appear impressive and put him very close to being competitive with the Top 5 forwards in the AFL.
I am confident that I could argue a case for him being in the current Top 5 to 10 forwards.
If he can stay fit enough to consistently play the majority of games available to him in the next few seasons, he may well get some recognition that I believe he deserves.

(NB: if anybody has any other forwards they think I should have included, please offer their names. I did quickly look at quite a number of other forwards based on average goals per game, but quickly dismissed them if their recent years did not appear competitive with the forwards I selected in my sample group.)

 

[bushchook]

Yeah there's no doubt that Tabs has been in the top echelon over the past 2 years. Plenty of people still don't give him credit for that, our own fans included.

 

[greatgatsby]

James Hird went in the 70s in the same era, nobody knew what they were doing back then

About right. Hird was also from Canberra so despite being raised in a footballing family (his grandad was an Essendon legend) he was never on the radar.

 

[TheLastCall]

About right. Hird was also from Canberra so despite being raised in a footballing family (his grandad was an Essendon legend) he was never on the radar.

There was suspicion that Ess had hidden him away. Something you couldn’t do these days.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Man we really need to get Tabs right.

I still value him as the most important player on the list.

 

[Tobiko]

Tabs should run less...go to the gym and work on becoming our Fraser Gehrig. Toss opposition defenders around like King Kong. Kick goals like hes got 8 fat crab legs