The Realistic Truth on your Team Chances in 2010.

[starchamber]

Adelaide always around the 8 but failing at the end. I presume again they will be there with another shot.

Brisbane Lions they should do a lot better then last year you would think with 2 of the best Goalscorers so are top 4 can be possible.

Carlton like it or not it's unlikely to be near the bottom or near the top when you lose your Main Goalscorer but they did have 2 key defenders out also last season who will back. They just missed the top 4.You would expect at least a position near the 8 and not worse then 10.

Collingwood are always up there near the 4 and you probably expect them near that again or at least in the 8.

Essendon are interesting club to see how they go without Lloyd and Lucas more then Carlton anything possible with them top 8 or just out with their running speed.

Fremantle you would think have no chance in the 8 as the kids are just learning like Carlton,Hawthorn and Essendon did a few years back.

Geelong how long can a team stay at the top it's either the start of the end or they still make the top 4 just.

Hawthorn they could be capable of making the top 4 if they get back to how they were in 2008.They have lost a couple of key defenders and a Ruckmen although.

Melbourne already suffering with injuries do have a tough time not being bottom 3 again.

North Melbourne is a 50/50 chance at top 8 don't write them off like many.

Port Adelaide are they teasing this year. They could be a surprise this season but i still think out of the 8.

Richmond i don't see much changing for Richmond. It's not too good for them or the AFL to sit outside the 8 for so long.

St Kilda blew it big time last year,they really need to do a Essendon of 2000 to win it but Essendon had a young side not one with many recycled players.They make the 8.

Sydney is another team like Kangaroos who could surprise many. They are club near the mark and again they might be there around September.

Western Bulldogs this could be the year of the bulldogs if luck goes there way without injuries or poor form at September.

West Coast is another 50/50 chance at top 8 expect them to be hard to beat in the West.The NAB Cup Game this week isn't them,footy isn't played at 40 degree weather going full speed and 9 point goals.

 

[Alberton_Magpie]

do you mean the realistic truth in your opinion?

 

[The Night Shift]

so you realisitcally know enough about each team to be realistic with your truth....

 

[starchamber]

so you realisitcally know enough about each team to be realistic with your truth....

Footy teams don't just come out 1 year from the bottom and go bang it takes steps it always has unless you recruited great matured players.I'm not knocking teams like Dockers and Melbourne as they should take steps this year. They might be firing in a few years with the kids they play but don't expect miracles from young players.

 

[Butts_JZZ30]

I think it is a pretty accurate list.

 

[Ron]

Richmond i don't see much changing for Richmond. It's not too good for them or the AFL to sit outside the 8 for so long.

What are you talking about? In the last 25 years the AFL has gone from a surburban league to a massive corporation with millions of fans attending and the game turning over billions of dollars. And in that time the Tiges have made the finals twice.

Clearly Richmond not making the finals is better for the AFL.

 

[krusden]

OP needs to face facts that Carlton lost their top goalscorer and replaced him with nothing and that finding 100 odd goals a year from their current crop will be difficult for them in 2010. Pity the Bradshaw trade didn't go through for the blues as he would have looked good in their forward structure this year.

 

[AG]

Carlton could finish lower than 10th.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Hawthorn they could be capable of making the top 4 if they get back to how they were in 2008.They have lost a couple of key defenders and a Ruckmen although.

That's the one that really sums it up for me. You reckon the could make it to the top four if they can replicate their 2008 form? Going out on a limb there. Do you do horroscopes?

Thanks for giving me the heads up about Geelong though. Here's silly deluded me, thinking they're a good chance to make it back to the grand final, when in reality, I should be happy with them scraping into the top four. It's not like they've got basically the same team as they had last year or anything...

 

[real hawk]

SAINTS
DOGS
CATS
PIES
LIONS
CROWS

then 6 teams fighting for the last 2 spots in the 8, Hawks, Swans, Blues, Dons, WCE, and Power.

Bottom 4 - Demons, Tigers,Freo and Kangas.

 

[alfy!]

Horrible thread, filled with massive predictions :/.

 

[Ando727]

I find this list so "realistic" that it really avoids saying all that much. Realistic seems to mean conservative in this case. It is more of a summary of last year's trends plus a few hints at what might happen because of the trade/draft period. I think we all know who the teams are that are pushing towards the 8. I'm not knocking the OP though - I honestly wouldn't have a clue about how the ladder will end up. I just hope Melbourne will put up some fighting performances and stop getting clobbered.

 

[telsor]

Richmond i don't see much changing for Richmond.

New coach
New game plan
14 new players.

Nup, no changes anyone can see.



More laughable however was your Adelaide comments.

 

[Selggad]

OP has 12 teams in or around the 8. I love to see someone lay it on the line.

 

[Bart Wilson]

Carlton worst finish 10th?? i stopped reading after that bias BS.

North and Port > Carlton.

Richmond and melbourne only teams not to improve this year the rest is questionable no more so than the pathetic Blues who have bottomed out rose to 10th then bottomed out again then rose to 6th and will bottom out YET again!! The blues PATHETIC!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

OP has 12 teams in or around the 8. I love to see someone lay it on the line.

That was my thought. He has:
Predicted 5 teams that will make the 8, and suggested that four of them may make the top 4.
Predicted that a further 6 teams might get into the 8.

I'm not sure that the reason for the Cats demise ( how long can a team stay at the top ) is a valid one.
My answer to the question is " as long as they can remain competetive".
They don't drop out simply because they have had their turn and now it is someone elses. I don't see any gaping weaknesses in the Cats line up this year.

 

[MagpieJoel]

Carlton could finish lower than 10th.

Could? Don't you mean will finish lower than 10th.

 

[Coolangatta]

I'll give you your "realistic prediction" right now, totally non bias of course.

Barry Hall and the desperation to avoid being back-to-back-to-back preliminary final losers will see the Bulldogs play off in the grand final this year against... Brisbane. Brown and Fevola will boot their way into the grand final and Akermanis will be playing against his old side in the granny!

The Bulldogs will lose the grand final and like the Saints go ever so close to a second flag. They'll vow to come back and kick butt the following year but like the Saints in '10, the wheels will start falling off and they'll miss the top 4, bundling out in the semi-finals.

Geelong and Adelaide to get bundled out in the prelims. Richmond to finish on the bottom. Saints and Hawks to make the semis, and Sydney to make the 8. Carlton and Melbourne to be bottom 4. Don't know about the rest.

That's all assuming the Doggies don't fall apart and make the 4. If they don't and the Saints do, I think the Saints will win the flag. Now if they both make the 4, I think they'll play in the GF.

It's all psychological. The top 4 creates that "belief". The Bulldogs absolutely will not want to lose another prelim and they won't, and the Saints will be desperate to win the GF this time. Of course it all depends on where they finish if they do make the 4. They may have to face off in the prelims, in which case I reckon the Bullies would win.

So basically,

If Saints/Dogs top 4 = Saints/Dogs GF

If Saints/Dogs have to play each other in prelim or Dogs make 4 and Saints don't = Dogs vs. Lions GF (if they avoid each other in prelims, otherwise Dogs vs. Crows/Hawks)

If Saints make 4 and Dogs don't = Saints vs. Cats/Lions/Crows GF

If they both miss the 4 = Cats/Hawks/Lions/Crows vs. Cats/Hawks/Lions/Crows GF.
If

 

[Kickin_Goals]

the opening post is vague and yet still inaccurate.
It's generalized horoscope crap that is entirely non-specific "oh they could finish around half their games won higher or lower".

You'd be better off just listing improved or weakened playing group list cross-referencing it with the last seasons ladder and making a ladder prediction at-least then your actually writing something worth a damn.

Teams with improved lists +

Western Bulldogs - The big bad man added to an already dangerous side should make it all the way to the last game this year.

Brisbane - Fev and Brown down forward seems fine in theory they still need to make it work, really there shouldn't be enough defenders to man up these players the way teams traditionally do with 3 players each. Brisbane still have the rest of the field to worry about though the playing group isn't nearly as impressive throughout.

Teams with weaker lists -

Sydney -Michael Olaughlin, Barry Hall, Leo Barry. The topic opener is ******ed to think they are in a better place without these players

Carlton -An idiotic club more concerned with off field matters then playing football, used to support them but they aren't about playing anymore they're about appearance.
With the inability to manage a single player who's behavior they find problematic, how can they be expected to manage a whole team anywhere

Essendon -This team is a joke as long as Ryder is off field, losing their two best forwards they really are in no position to move up the ladder

Teams with developing players +/-

Fremantle -A couple of decent players down forward developing, if this side learned how to dispose of the ball they could do okay, their forward 50 entry has always been terrible

Melbourne -Almost another Richmond just they are more broken then mismanaged

West Coast -Lots of exciting players but not a lot to be definitive about they seem to be holding on to some terrible players just to fill spots.

Adelaide -Have their seniors still and a large group of developing players, seem to keep losing players to injury with every game they play. Likely to stay right up there if they can keep their players on the field some see them as a real chance this year however their inability to win against the top sides in close games may see them missing out again in the finals.

North - Still a young side not much of a show though watching the game between them and Fremantle is as mediocre a it gets. Very un-entertaining normally the channel doesn't switch off the football here but these two teams were woeful.

Teams with about the same lists

Geelong - No reason they won't dominate again this season, just hoping they won't doesn't cause them not to people.

Hawthorn - Stagnating, possibly getting weaker but still with a group of extremely good players but after their game-plan was thoroughly picked a part and adapted to they haven't looked like challenging.

Port Adelaide - Playing their ass off in the NAB so they don't have to sleep on park benches, beating down teams that really don't need it as much. When the actual season begins they will likely show their true colors.

Richmond - I couldn't put them in developing because they just don't, Richardson can't save them as a boundary rider, A team would have to be playing pretty poorly to give these guys a win really.

Saint Kilda - Though that backup 2 meter tall Riewoldt annoyingly somehow got in their side from South Australia, they otherwise have a rather consolidated and well-oiled playing machine and they should be contending again.

Collingwood - Perhaps have some developing players but seem rather consolidated, they get so many home games it seems difficult for them to slip too far

 

[AG]

^That's no better than the OP. This thread is dead. Failed attempt at trying to outsmart a ladder prediction.

 

[Full Wingspan]

Brisbane - Fev and Brown down forward seems fine in theory they still need to make it work, really there shouldn't be enough defenders to man up these players the way teams traditionally do with 3 players each. Brisbane still have the rest of the field to worry about though the playing group isn't nearly as impressive throughout.

What Aussie said. Just like the OP.

This just shows how much you know about football. Brisbane's defence would be in the top 6 at least. It's quite far our strongest part. Our forward line lacks small fowards, we're hoping the inclusion of Power and some other young'uns will help that, ie. Banfield, Rockcliff. Our Midfield is probably just as strong, except we do lack a serious hard ball getter. The skills and some pace are there, but those crucial ball winners are not.

 

[Kickin_Goals]

^That's no better than the OP. This thread is dead. Failed attempt at trying to outsmart a ladder prediction.

Outsmart a ladder prediction... how is that, what you do to make a ladder prediction is this sigh....
no better then the opening post that said barely anything about any team
sigh your simply ass hurt that your team is mentioned under the weakened list heading would you disagree and say that those players not being in your side is a playing group improvement?

And brisbane boy is sad also that I am unimpressed with brisbane.
I'm sorry but I'm just not impressed by them, a 6th best defense who gives a rats ass, in a season where bottom sides were beat by large amounts by top sides, its not the best its not as impressive as Fevola and Brown now being in the same side. So do have a whine about it.

Second Semi Final
MCG Fri 11 Sep
Attendance 47030
Western Bulldogs 107
Brisbane 56

Unimpressive.
Making up the numbers, be ass hurt all you like they should be better this year but so should the bulldogs.
The thread is realistic chances, I'd take that to mean at going all the way.

 

[maxrm]

I thought he'd done quite a good job, generally agree with most of his statements and although very conservative, if he went out on a limb, he'd be getting bagged liked crazy! But anyway, thought I may as well give it go, here it is:


Adelaide: Will finish the season strongly, just missing out on the top 4, before bowing out of the finals in the prelims in another ripper. All-round very good year for the crows.

Brisbane: Will be hard to stop this year with fev and brown up forward. Will sneak into the 4 but wont progress to the GF. Rich and Black to form a new powerhouse midfield.

Carlton: Will really drop of this year, small chance of making the 8 but may slip down into the bottom 4. Will show some good signs, but wont be the best year for carlton fans.

Collingwood: Good year for the magpies. Will nearly make the top 4, hit good form at times but in the end not good enough to really push for a flag. Looking very very dangerous for 2011.

Essendon: Wont make the 8, but youngsters will show good signs, will be too inconsistent to really make an impact this year. Mark Williams to kick 60+ as the main forward target.

Fremantle: Will show some awesome signs, but wont be consistent enough to make the 8. I'd expect them to finsish between 10-13, taking a big step-up from last year.

Geelong: Through experince and being consistent will make the 4, but will drop off alot and I'd expect this to be their last realistic chance at the flag for a while to come.

Hawthorn: Will show signs of 2008, and be very dangerous but will be too inconsistent to really push for a flag. Finishing outside of the top4.

Melbourne: Will definitely improve on last year but simply not good enough to challenge the 8. Will finish bottom 4 again but starting to look like a real team again.

North Melbourne: Will be very dangerous throughout the season but wont be able to make the top8, although 2011 and 12 will be looking good for kangaroo supporters as NM start becoming a finals side.

Port Adelaide: Will show signs of a top 4 worthy side but will be way too inconsistent again. May sneak into the 8 but id expect them to miss out again.

Richmond: Wooden spooners for 2010. Will have a shocking year but some youngsters will really start to come along, particularly Dunstin Martin and Trent Cotchin.

St Kilda: Top 2, will be hungry for a flag after narrowly missing out in '09 when they probably should have won. Have a feeling they'll leave empty handed again this year, either bowing out in the semi's or losing the GF again.

Sydney: Will be hard to beat again, and I think they'll be in a dog fight for the 8th possie with WC. Jetta to have some amazing games and Bradshaw to enjoy his time as the number #1 forward target.

West Coast: After a slow start will really start to get things going by the end, sneaking into the 8 with 11 wins. Almost unbeatable at subi, but will again struggle away from home. Masten, Kennedy, Naitanui and Shuey to become big AFL names.

Western-Bulldogs: 2010 Premiers. Will have a fantastic year with barry up forward and are my tip for the flag.


My Ladder Prediction:
1: Western Bulldogs
2: St Kilda
3: Geelong
4: Brisbane
5: Collingwood
6: Adelaide
7: Hawthorn
8: West Coast
---------------------
9: Sydney
10: Port Adelaide
11: Fremantle
12: Essendon
13: Carlton
14: Kangaroos
15: Melbourne
16: Richmond

 

[AG]

Carlton - An idiotic club more concerned with off field matters then playing football

Essendon -This team is a joke as long as Ryder is off field, losing their two best forwards they really are in no position to move up the ladder

Melbourne -Almost another Richmond just they are more broken then mismanaged

West Coast -Lots of exciting players but not a lot to be definitive about they seem to be holding on to some terrible players just to fill spots.

North - Very un-entertaining normally the channel doesn't switch off the football here but these two teams were woeful.

Port Adelaide - Playing their ass off in the NAB so they don't have to sleep on park benches,

Richmond - I couldn't put them in developing because they just don't, Richardson can't save them as a boundary rider.

It was a shit analysis. The bolded are just cheap digs or rubbish comments. I never have a problem with people judging Sydney so that's your opinion. Plus I don't get the categories you used to separate the teams. Richmond have roughly the same list?

 

[huggy_b]

woulda coulda shoulda.

I predict that any given team could finish anywhere between 1st and 16th in 2010. I dont think anyone will fall as far as 17th, but it is a distinct possibility that history will be created next season.