The Reality of our Rebuild- Are we going backwards?

[Supertiger]

Everyone claims we are rebuilding our club, we are on the verge of a superdraft, clubs like WCE, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda all have a group of players that there supporters believe have the chance to win the flag. Then theres a group of clubs including Richmond and Hawthorn who have been rebuilding for a while, whilst Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and afew others are either 1 year into a rebuild or just starting. Its fair to say from that group that Collingwood and Port are about the same level as Richmond. Underneath is the listing of the picks for all clubs.

Adelaide: 14, 32, 48, 64, 80
Brisbane: 4, 22, 34, 38, 54, 70
Carlton: 1, 17, 19, 35, 51, 67
Coll'wood: 8, 10, 28, 44, 63, 76
Essendon: 2, 18, 20, 36, 42, 47, 68
Fremantle: 31, 52, 79
Geelong: 7, 25, 41, 57, 73
Hawthorn: 6, 24, 33, 40, 56, 72
Kangaroos: 3, 21, 37, 53, 69
Melbourne: 12, 30, 46, 62, 78
Port Adel: 5, 23, 39, 55, 71
Richmond: 13, 26, 58, 60, 74
St Kilda: 9, 27, 59, 75
Sydney: 15, 49, 65, 81
West Coast: 16, 29, 43, 50, 82
W.Bulldogs: 11, 45, 61, 66, 77


So whats the end result after the trade week if we assume picks under 50 are going to generally go ok. Well for mine we have done as bad as Adelaide who finished 3rd and who have a way better list than us infact Adelaide have 3 picks under 50 compared to us. Brisbane got there hands on 4 picks to continue to rebuild there squad- we only have 2. Carlton are a rabble but last year they got the likes of Murphy and Kennedy and this year they landed 4 picks under pick 50 to continue to rebuild there club. They will be stranded on the bottom for the next 2 years but in 2 years time theyll have about ten high quality youngsters. Collingwood who last year got Thomas and Pendlebury in there priority pick year just landed 4 picks under 50 including 2 picks in the top 10 of the superdraft- again I reiterate we only have 2. Sheedy is a master of the rebuild. Guess what...he just landed 6 picks under 50, Matthew Lloyd also comes back from Injury. Freo were like a freight train late in the season, theyve gone all in to win a flag, theyll either get one or fall on there face, but the reality is they are closer to a flag than we are. Geelong fell away last year, but they have a decent list. They kept there picks, they arent as bad as 2006 suggests- a balanced outcome for the cats.
Hawthorns Clarkson continues to make the tough calls, In my view the hawks were just infront of us in there rebuild, they have players like Dowler and Muston and Bailey and Ellis who havent played alot or not at all. They now have another 4 picks in the top 50 compared to our 2 picks.North is in trouble and will hold up the ladder, Melbourne are close to a flag both Melbourne and North all kept there picks. Richmond traded down in round 1 for Polak and completely out of round 3...we are supposedly rebuilding, but we have only 2 picks in the top 50. Miller and Jackson have to nail 13 and 26 or we will fall way behind other clubs like Hawthorn, last year they only took 3 players in the National Draft, this year only probably 4- Im sorry to say, but that doesnt look like a rebuild for mine. I hope Im wrong, but I think theyve badly erred on this. Richmonds mistake is most clearly seen in the context of the West Coast Eagles. Premiers of the competition. A star studded outfit. They have 4 picks under 50. People could probably claim RFC is going backwards when compared to the eagles and other clubs...the stats are hard to refute.
Western Bulldogs and Sydney are close to flags, have better lists- they traded for players to help them win a flag.

We are no where near winning a flag In my opinion our strategy is flawed. Our competitors are rebuilding there clubs with quality picks as we trade down and out. I hope Im wrong and I know that people will criticise this thread, but I think weve lost the plot at Tigerland. We needed to trade in with atleast 2 more picks in the top 50. My conclusion is that the club feels that its going forward, the problem is other clubs are moving forward quicker. In effect even whilst we go forward my opinion is in reality we are going backwards. Plough and Greg Miller need to make the 8 next year. If the club doesnt make the 8 then there must be real questions asked. Next year is Ploughs 3rd year as coach...he is a good coach, but you cant go year to year saying your rebuilding and not making the 8 especially when your not getting in the quality picks.

Im not putting this up as a joke, Ive tried to legitimately put forward a case which shows we are not keeping up with other clubs in rebuilding our list. Im interested in what you all have to say about what Ive written. Its my opinion only. Its neither right or wrong, just a point of view and Im interested in yours.

Regards
ST.

 

[nugget_12]

people around here need to relax......i think in this upcomeing draft we will get 4 -5 really good players, i've alwayz been a fan of haveing late picks because there is so much talent left over that no-1 else wants to touch due to an injury they had through-out the year or they're to small or to skinny or watever.
we will get quality players there is no doubt about that.....every-one just needs to relax and let GM & TW & FJ do thier jobs.
i think Craig Mccrae may have his input into one of our later picks. i think there may be a QLDer he may have tucked away for us.

 

[PLSC]

Everyone claims we are rebuilding our club, we are on the verge of a superdraft, clubs like WCE, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda all have a group of players that there supporters believe have the chance to win the flag. Then theres a group of clubs including Richmond and Hawthorn who have been rebuilding for a while, whilst Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and afew others are either 1 year into a rebuild or just starting. Its fair to say from that group that Collingwood and Port are about the same level as Richmond. Underneath is the listing of the picks for all clubs.

Adelaide: 14, 32, 48, 64, 80
Brisbane: 4, 22, 34, 38, 54, 70
Carlton: 1, 17, 19, 35, 51, 67
Coll'wood: 8, 10, 28, 44, 63, 76
Essendon: 2, 18, 20, 36, 42, 47, 68
Fremantle: 31, 52, 79
Geelong: 7, 25, 41, 57, 73
Hawthorn: 6, 24, 33, 40, 56, 72
Kangaroos: 3, 21, 37, 53, 69
Melbourne: 12, 30, 46, 62, 78
Port Adel: 5, 23, 39, 55, 71
Richmond: 13, 26, 58, 60, 74
St Kilda: 9, 27, 59, 75
Sydney: 15, 49, 65, 81
West Coast: 16, 29, 43, 50, 82
W.Bulldogs: 11, 45, 61, 66, 77


So whats the end result after the trade week if we assume picks under 50 are going to generally go ok. Well for mine we have done as bad as Adelaide who finished 3rd and who have a way better list than us infact Adelaide have 3 picks under 50 compared to us. Brisbane got there hands on 4 picks to continue to rebuild there squad- we only have 2. Carlton are a rabble but last year they got the likes of Murphy and Kennedy and this year they landed 4 picks under pick 50 to continue to rebuild there club. They will be stranded on the bottom for the next 2 years but in 2 years time theyll have about ten high quality youngsters. Collingwood who last year got Thomas and Pendlebury in there priority pick year just landed 4 picks under 50 including 2 picks in the top 10 of the superdraft- again I reiterate we only have 2. Sheedy is a master of the rebuild. Guess what...he just landed 6 picks under 50, Matthew Lloyd also comes back from Injury. Freo were like a freight train late in the season, theyve gone all in to win a flag, theyll either get one or fall on there face, but the reality is they are closer to a flag than we are. Geelong fell away last year, but they have a decent list. They kept there picks, they arent as bad as 2006 suggests- a balanced outcome for the cats.
Hawthorns Clarkson continues to make the tough calls, In my view the hawks were just infront of us in there rebuild, they have players like Dowler and Muston and Bailey and Ellis who havent played alot or not at all. They now have another 4 picks in the top 50 compared to our 2 picks.North is in trouble and will hold up the ladder, Melbourne are close to a flag both Melbourne and North all kept there picks. Richmond traded down in round 1 for Polak and completely out of round 3...we are supposedly rebuilding, but we have only 2 picks in the top 50. Miller and Jackson have to nail 13 and 26 or we will fall way behind other clubs like Hawthorn, last year they only took 3 players in the National Draft, this year only probably 4- Im sorry to say, but that doesnt look like a rebuild for mine. I hope Im wrong, but I think theyve badly erred on this. Richmonds mistake is most clearly seen in the context of the West Coast Eagles. Premiers of the competition. A star studded outfit. They have 4 picks under 50. People could probably claim RFC is going backwards when compared to the eagles and other clubs...the stats are hard to refute.
Western Bulldogs and Sydney are close to flags, have better lists- they traded for players to help them win a flag.

We are no where near winning a flag In my opinion our strategy is flawed. Our competitors are rebuilding there clubs with quality picks as we trade down and out. I hope Im wrong and I know that people will criticise this thread, but I think weve lost the plot at Tigerland. We needed to trade in with atleast 2 more picks in the top 50. My conclusion is that the club feels that its going forward, the problem is other clubs are moving forward quicker. In effect even whilst we go forward my opinion is in reality we are going backwards. Plough and Greg Miller need to make the 8 next year. If the club doesnt make the 8 then there must be real questions asked. Next year is Ploughs 3rd year as coach...he is a good coach, but you cant go year to year saying your rebuilding and not making the 8 especially when your not getting in the quality picks.

Im not putting this up as a joke, Ive tried to legitimately put forward a case which shows we are not keeping up with other clubs in rebuilding our list. Im interested in what you all have to say about what Ive written. Its my opinion only. Its neither right or wrong, just a point of view and Im interested in yours.

Regards
ST.

tips hat

best ****ing post i've read in a long time

people critize you for saying "nothing positive" but the facts are that we are so far behind its not funny

 

[Grechy]

I think we are fine. Compared to past years we have rebuilt. We've got heaps of young players coming through. You just can't build a top side with youngsters everywhere. You have to have your mid-range players too as well as some experience. It's all about having the right mix and balance. Look at the Eagles.

Polak is still very young with much football ahead of him but has proven what he is capable of. I think Miller has just taken a calculated risk but it could very well pay off if Polak gets his mindset right.

 

[Grechy]

tips hat

best ****ing post i've read in a long time

people critize you for saying "nothing positive" but the facts are that we are so far behind its not funny

Well if isn't Mr Negative putting his 2 cents in.

I've never seen a Richmond side looking so forward in a long time. If Polo, Raines, Deledio, Tambling and Foley aren't looking forward to you then your brain is backward.

 

[slightlycynical]

I think that we will actually go backwards instead of forwards next year in terms of ladder position... to me the five year plan means five years before we can make the finals regularly let alone win a premiership. Having said that I think we still will have at least a couple more picks at the lower end of the draft in the comming years.
Clubs like Hawthorn can list of their early draft picks all they like but it doesn't guarantee anything. Personally I think we have built a better 'team' of picks since 2004 than them regardless of what position they were drafted.

 

[pantsdown]

Question: when do people actually believe we will be in the premiership window?

Just out of interests sake i would like people to nominate their time frame.

 

[Polo_14]

Question: when do people actually believe we will be in the premiership window?

Just out of interests sake i would like people to nominate their time frame.

2009-2012

That is provided we pull our finger out at the draft table in 06-07-08 drafts and recruit

- A quality Full Back

- A geniune hard and skilled on-baller

- A small crumbing forward. (Krakouer should be gone by then, not up to it, whilst Pettifer is a marking rather then crumbing forward).

- A back up Ruck Man

And I am factoring in

- Our forward line is based around 2 targets, Schulz and Hughes, as Richo may be retired by then.

- Thursfiled and Polak key defenders (Polak has alot to prove)

- Joel Bowden will be captain

- Deledio, Polo, Tambling midfield generals

 

[Calcium Man]

tips hat

best ****ing post i've read in a long time

people critize you for saying "nothing positive" but the facts are that we are so far behind its not funny

The post has merrit but building a football squad is not all about draft picks. They are not a magical cure. I'd be far more worried if we had traded out of rounds 1 and 2 of the draft because they are the real quality kids.

Have you never read Weavers analogy that the draft is a pyramid of talent not a straight up and down ladder. There are 3 clear stand outs, 4 guns then like 15 quality players. After about pick 30 or 40 the talent levels off. Then its about having guys with a good eye for talent. We will have a full compliment of rookies this year so i think we will have plenty of options to pick from about that level of kids your crying out for.

Remember Raines was pick 73, Tuck was similar and Foley and howat have both come of our rookies list. I think out ability over the last 3 drafts shows that Miller and his recruiting team do have that good eye for talent.

 

[hougie]

I also have an inkling we may go backwards in terms of ladder position next year. But in terms of trade week 2006 I think we did alright, the main point I base this on is that Miller, I believe, has picked his first rounder that he realistically wants and that player will not be picked between picks 8-12. Therefore there is no need for pick 8 as pick 13 will bring us the same player, the only difference is we have Polak, the illusive CHB we have been looking for.

I think that this draft we're looking at blokes like Nathan Brown (who I want, despite the confusion it will create), Benjamin (who I really don't want, soft as butter according to Weaver) and maybe an Armatige (another I'm not too keen on).

We will still be some sort of finals force in the near future due to the powerful young midfield we have already acquired. Now, hopefully, we will round off the Richmond team of the future with picks 13 and 26 this year and the top 10 picks next year will most likely bring. But now, due to Polak, we have one less spine player to recruit.

 

[TigerGlory]

Dont forget that we've picked up a bunch of quality kids though anyway, enough that we can easily base a team, alongside of an experienced spine.

I mean we've got a bunch of kids that should be good players;

Deledio
Foley
Raines
Tambling
Schulz
Pattison
Hudges
JON
Polo
Thursfield
Jackson

Then some boys we havent seen much of;

Meyer
McGuane
Limbach
Howat
Whitey.

Then, you simply build around a side that has blokes such as; Richo, Browny, Simmo, Johnson, Coggers, Tuck, Bowden Bros and Hyde and your half way there.

 

[Supertiger]

In answering Pantsdown question, at the rate we are going I dont see us being a threat for atleast 4 more years so around 2011 is where we should be seriously looking at things in terms of a premiership window. Thats why for mine, last year was disappointing in terms of how many picks we took in November and that has only been heightened with this week. 2 picks in the top 50 is not gonna help us catch up, we need to nail picks 13 and 26 and hope like anything Francis Jackson produces something special really late in the draft. We should be taking more kids and moving out players for picks who may have reached there maximum output. As for the number of youngsters at Tigerland, I have real question marks over many of them still. Limbach, McGuane, Howat, White and Jackson still have many questions to answer and theyre not the only ones.

 

[PLSC]

EVERY club has good kids, dont just name our 5 good ones and think we are alright

rebuilding is about getting rid of junk, whorethorn are NEARLY there and we are not

 

[Darth_Tiger]

Pantsdown: we are a chance for the flag next year. here is why:
Forward Line: A combo of a fit nathan brown and matthew richardson if given enough supply is as devastating as any in the competition. throw in an improving schulz and the goalsneaking abilities of krak and tambo plus the resting simmonds and the hard working pettifer pumping the ball in across half forward. lids and tuck can be dangerous additions at times also and the added bonus of a polak who can go forward if needed and patrick bowden as well.

Defence: Looking much better with the aquisition of polak. if he can hold down chb and gaspar has an injury free season the key spots are taken care of. add the return of thursfield and the rebound of joel bowden maybe raines if he plays back and newman back the defence is looking pretty good.

Midfield: here is the key. we need more options to get a better rotation and to share the load. this should happen with the natural improvement of our draft picks from the last few years. a fit cogs is huge. along with tuck, polo and johnson they will form the nucleous of a top grade midfield. throw in lids, tambo, hyde, tivendale, white, the rotation of krak, newman, raines, petts, howatt and brown and we have a great supply of midfield options. hall playing on a wing could be a good tactic too. for rucks simmo is first class and will be well supported by knobel and pattison.

Now i know this depends on a lot of ifs. i know that there will be things that dont go to plan and that most likely we will not be in contention next year. but if EVERYTHING falls into place (eg, luck with injuries, natural improvement of younger players and continued good form of those we expect to perform, some player or players to unexpectedly improve and become stars like dean polo, andy raines or pat bowden did this year) we could be anything next year. i dont expect this to happen, but my point is it could.

most likely i think we should push into the lower reaches of the 8 next year (i cant believe the doom and gloom of some people because we dropped 5 places in one draft to solve our biggest problem of chb!) and will be a genuine flag contender in 2008-09. i reckon we are closer than alot think.

 

[Polo_14]

Pantsdown: we are a chance for the flag next year. here is why:
Forward Line: A combo of a fit nathan brown and matthew richardson if given enough supply is as devastating as any in the competition. throw in an improving schulz and the goalsneaking abilities of krak and tambo plus the resting simmonds and the hard working pettifer pumping the ball in across half forward. lids and tuck can be dangerous additions at times also and the added bonus of a polak who can go forward if needed and patrick bowden as well.

Defence: Looking much better with the aquisition of polak. if he can hold down chb and gaspar has an injury free season the key spots are taken care of. add the return of thursfield and the rebound of joel bowden maybe raines if he plays back and newman back the defence is looking pretty good.

Midfield: here is the key. we need more options to get a better rotation and to share the load. this should happen with the natural improvement of our draft picks from the last few years. a fit cogs is huge. along with tuck, polo and johnson they will form the nucleous of a top grade midfield. throw in lids, tambo, hyde, tivendale, white, the rotation of krak, newman, raines, petts, howatt and brown and we have a great supply of midfield options. hall playing on a wing could be a good tactic too. for rucks simmo is first class and will be well supported by knobel and pattison.

Now i know this depends on a lot of ifs. i know that there will be things that dont go to plan and that most likely we will not be in contention next year. but if EVERYTHING falls into place (eg, luck with injuries, natural improvement of younger players and continued good form of those we expect to perform) we could be anything next year. i dont expect this to happen, but my point is it could.

most likely i think we should push into the lower reaches of the 8 next year (i cant believe the doom and gloom of some people because we drop 5 places in one draft to solve our biggest problem of chb!) and will be a genuine flag contender in 2008-09. i reckon we are closer than alot think.

I stopped reading after your first line. Please dont delude yourself, that is the most ridiculous statement i've seen for a while.

 

[Darth_Tiger]

thats too bad mate, i explained later in the post why, and even though its possible i said it is unlikely. did anyone think the bombers were a chance for the flag in 93? the crows in 97 AND 98? but they still won it. make fun if you wish, i am entitled to my opinion as you are to yours. in any case even if i am off the mark, (which is possible seeing that i look at the team with bias) i certainly dont think we are going backwards and that post lays out very clearly why. its not like i said we are a big chance, perhaps i should have said a small chance, or a tiny chance.

 

[Grechy]

I don't think we're near a flag just yet but we're certainly heading in the right direction. Development is the key and getting the right picks + list management.

 

[Darth_Tiger]

i know i have opened myself up to critcism with my 'we can win the flag next year' post, but really i just want to set up an opposing view to that of supertigers which whilst being the most pessimistic view is a valid view and i respect it and he may be right. i dont seriously believe we will win the flag, i just want to point out that the reality is that we are somewhere in the middle of both those views. i still maintain that if EVERYTHING goes right for us (which it wont) then we COULD win it.

 

[Bojangles17]

So whats the end result after the trade week if we assume picks under 50 are going to generally go ok. Well for mine we have done as bad as Adelaide who finished 3rd and who have a way better list than us infact Adelaide have 3 picks under 50 compared to us.
Regards
ST.

please make an effort to give us the abridged version...not bleedin war and peace...listen up Adelaide lists beneath the surface aint that sh%^ hot...Minus MCLeod and Roo.., Goodwin...how old are they someone chip in and they start to go backward awfully quick..Our youngsters under 23 would crap ALL over adelaides and most of the other sides you cared to mention in that diatribe.....we have a great platform that we will add to once again in a months time

 

[Matt9]

Why would anybody think we will go backwards next year just because we don't have four picks in the top 50 of the draft? That's ridiculous. We have the youngest list in the competition. Most of the kids on the list took a step forward last season- Raines, Polo, White, Foley and Tambling took big steps forward, older players like P Bowden and Pettifer finally look like they belong at the level and we were hit hard by injuries to Richo, Brown, Newman, Coughlan and Thursfield. With the draw we had last season, if you had told me those guys would spend a month or more out of the side each I would have said we would be lucky not to finish last. We won most of the games against the bottom eight sides and lost to the top four but that is a true indicator of where we are at. Most kids take two full seasons to get there body in the right nick for the AFL and we have five kids form the top 20 of the draft heading into their third year this season. We kept our two first round picks and recruited a guy who can play for 8 years at chb. Everything looks positive for next season. We won't win the flag but we are building to a sustained run of success. The Eagles went from 14th to finish 8th, 8th, 8th, 2nd and 1st under Worsfold and now look to have a strong future. They didn't have four picks under fifty all the time, they simply recruited well and used the rookie system brilliantly (Cox, Fletcher, Graham, B Jones, Lynch, Nicoski, Armstrong and Priddis were all rookies). We are currently at the same stage as the Eagles were in Woosha's third pre-season and another mid table finish can still be a step forward if the kids come on and continue to improve. It's the 4th and 5th seasons that we need to produce the real results- when Tambling, Meyer, Delidio, Polo, Pattison are all in their 4th, 5th years and the other kids are coming through behind them. It's not about "when" at the moment its about "how" and they are going about it the right way. Compare this to 2001 when we had picks 33, 63, 68 and 77 and you can see we have a much better plan at the moment, better people in charge and a much more promising future.

 

[Crumden]

The comparison with Hawthorn is interesting. They don't have 4 top 50 picks because of their brilliant strategy. They have 4 because they were unsuccessful in their attempts to trade their two second round picks away. With Spida gone and Cousins another year older, I reckon we're well ahead of Hawthorn.

IMO picking up a 22yo KPP like Polak equates to an extra first/early second round pick for us this year. In other years there have been far less talented key players traded for picks around that mark. He could still be a 10 year player for us at his age. And despite an ordinary 2006 season and an injury riddled 2005, he still has more runs on the board at this stage than most of our highly rated youngsters, with the exceptions of Lids and Raines.

Our strategy is to add quality to the list through trading while keeping picks in the first and second rounds. We have done that for the last three years, adding Simmonds, P Bowden and now Polak. Our list was far too depleted a few years back to just build through picks and Miller and co have done a great job being able to add quality while keeping us in the first rounds of the draft. We used Ottens to get extra picks before that, but we don't have too many Ottens/Tarrants on our list to get those extra picks. I reckon the reason our midfielders were shopped was to see if their was any interest for a high pick, but the interest wasn't there.

 

[Matt9]

Exactly. What's the difference if you get good young kids in the draft or through trades? We don't want to see our picks given away for 28 year olds past their prime but a guy who will play for another 8-10 years is a good swap. And we didn't give up a pick in the first two rounds. We win because it's very unlikely we would get a kid as good as Polak with a pick in the third round or forties or whatever it was, no matter how good the draft is. We know what we get with this 22 year old- who knows what we get with the 40th best 18year old in the draft, who has probably never even played a game against grown men?

 

[Woodstock]

Hawthorn does have a lot of youngsters picked up from previous drafts, but most are yet to play (Ellis, Tuck, Muston, Dowler). Who knows how they'll go, they haven't played against men before. However, our senior group is far superior to Hawthorns and that's where I believe the difference lies.

Hawthorns last 4 games flattered there season. Prior to these results the experts were discussing whether they'd improved at all. To me, the jury is still out. They didn't beat any top 8 sides. With us though, we have improved in all aspects of the game, overall results, list management and administration.

The comparisons with Hawthorn seem to be like apples and oranges to me, the strategies seem a fair bit different.

 

[njac3]

The thing that Richmond supporters need to understand is that you will never be a good club. There appears to be something really floored about the direction of the club, and you’re drafting.

How you can put the Pies and port on the same level as Richmond is amazing. So Diluted

And I hate to say this but also Delideo won’t be a good player. Will follow the likes of Pedifer with someone of high hopes who doesn’t deliver.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

The thing that Richmond supporters need to understand is that you will never be a good club. There appears to be something really floored about the direction of the club, and you’re drafting.

How you can put the Pies and port on the same level as Richmond is amazing. So Diluted

And I hate to say this but also Delideo won’t be a good player. Will follow the likes of Pedifer with someone of high hopes who doesn’t deliver.

"Delideo's" ****, "Pedifer's" ****, the world is ****.

I like how ******s like this bloke, come on here and think that their view is right.