Fixture The Run Home: 2021 Edition - we're in!!

[Lore]

 

[JayJ20]

If we lose we may well only get to 10. Sydney is a 50/50 at best and the Dogs are highly likely a loss. That's 10-12, assuming we beat Gold Coast, which is no guarantee either.

St. Kilda beating West Coast isn't without a chance, West Coast just lost to North at home. Sydney is at Docklands, where St. Kilda will have a distinct advantage and the only game I see them definitely losing is Geelong.

Fremantle can definitely beat all four.

Giants are unlikely to make it but they can still win 3 or 4 of those.

Richmond are no guarantees against any of their 5 without Martin either. They have a great record against Geelong but largely off the back of Martin. Freo in Perth isn't easy, they've only lost to Geelong, Bulldogs and West Coast there and have beaten several middle 6 teams at home, including Sydney and GWS. They're not without a chance.

West Coast really only have the 1 likely win against Collingwood, and as mentioned above, they're not great at traveling and Collingwood are going well, so hardly set.

I think you're projecting what you want it to be in the most unpredictable season ever and moving the parts to make it work. A week ago most of us considered Richmond would struggle to make it but now you're putting them as one of only three teams that can make it?

I do agree however that if we win GWS are gone though. This is the most important game for us for the rest of the season.

I'll give you West Coast, Richmond and St Kilda given they've been involved in some strange games, but I don't agree with Fremantle. They're too inconsistent to win 4 out of 5 games, especially given their last 5 games are Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane, West Coast and St Kilda. No easy win there. They'll do well to win 3 of those.

This week is very important for all teams. If Fremantle lose to Sydney and GWS lose to us, then I'll put a line through them. St Kilda are a little more unpredictable, but they'd need to beat Geelong in Geelong to get to 12.

As for us, I think finals is pretty straightforward. We need to beat GWS, Gold Coast and Collingwood + keep our percentage intact. I'm confident of beating GWS and Collingwood, but nervous about the Gold Coast game. Sydney is a 50/50, but I'm less confident at Metricon. Bulldogs is a loss so hopefully we keep our percentage intact.

 

[eth-dog]

I'll give you West Coast, Richmond and St Kilda given they've been involved in some strange games, but I don't agree with Fremantle. They're too inconsistent to win 4 out of 5 games, especially given their last 5 games are Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane, West Coast and St Kilda. No easy win there. They'll do well to win 3 of those.

This week is very important for all teams. If Fremantle lose to Sydney and GWS lose to us, then I'll put a line through them. St Kilda are a little more unpredictable, but they'd need to beat Geelong in Geelong to get to 12.

As for us, I think finals is pretty straightforward. We need to beat GWS, Gold Coast and Collingwood + keep our percentage intact. I'm confident of beating GWS and Collingwood, but nervous about the Gold Coast game. Sydney is a 50/50, but I'm less confident at Metricon. Bulldogs is a loss so hopefully we keep our percentage intact.

No easy beats but given Brisbane's recent form they don't really have a game that you would say they'll definitely lose.

And my point is, we might not even get to 11 wins. You're forgetting how poorly we played on the weekend. We may well win as we should, given the players they have missing, but I wouldn't be confident about anything considering how we've played since the bye, none of our performances have been overly convincing.

 

[Mercurial89]

No easy beats but given Brisbane's recent form they don't really have a game that you would say they'll definitely lose.

And my point is, we might not even get to 11 wins. You're forgetting how poorly we played on the weekend. We may well win as we should, given the players they have missing, but I wouldn't be confident about anything considering how we've played since the bye, none of our performances have been overly convincing.

Especially since in the past two weeks results aside gws have played better football than us.

Their first half vs swans was excellent.

I must admit I'm a little surprised we are expected to beat Giants.
Our form line isn't great.

 

[boncer34]

Especially since in the past two weeks results aside gws have played better football than us.

Their first half vs swans was excellent.

I must admit I'm a little surprised we are expected to beat Giants.
Our form line isn't great.

Not sure I agree mate. We got over North which admittedly wasn't great.

But we beat Adelaide by 10 goals in a horrible game but still 10 goals is 10 goals.

We ran Geelong on their home deck for the better part of a half which is no mean feat.

Stuck with the ladder leaders (I think) for four quarters.

Our forms been fairly good I thought.

 

[doug85]

Especially since in the past two weeks results aside gws have played better football than us.

Their first half vs swans was excellent.

I must admit I'm a little surprised we are expected to beat Giants.
Our form line isn't great.

It’s the injuries/outs for the giants causing the expectation. And as Boncer said, our form hasn’t been too bad.

 

[Mercurial89]

Not sure I agree mate. We got over North which admittedly wasn't great.

But we beat Adelaide by 10 goals in a horrible game but still 10 goals is 10 goals.

We ran Geelong on their home deck for the better part of a half which is no mean feat.

Stuck with the ladder leaders (I think) for four quarters.

Our forms been fairly good I thought.

I feel it's been ok.

Adelaide were poor, which was a soft kill.

We weren't just poor against North we were flat, the effort wasn't there in that first half. Worrying signs.
I don't feel we were ever too much of a threat to Geelong but your right a commendable effort.

GWS are capable of better footy though, they beat Melbourne and that football against Sydney was pretty powerful.

But maybe your right they have got some bad losses in there also. I think I thought they had been a bit better than that.

Their outs aren't that bad though. Big issue is their ruck, but Kelly will likely play, Whitfield will be back.
Their midfield is very strong and we are ok in that department but lack the bodies to rotate through there.
I feel like we will need them to be off to be the expected favourite we are being spoken about as.
Not saying we can't win, just I don't think it's the 70/30 it's being spoken about as, much more 50/50.
Even in media when speaking about us it's "well they expect to beat gws, gc and pies"

I think people know we have given great account of ourselves this year and expect that that level will get it done against gws.
But I'm concerned that our level may be dipping.

 

[Vindicater]

We beat GWS and then I reckon we make it.

 

[JayJ20]

Well this got a little more difficult. GWS named a strong side.

 

[fishardansin]

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

 

[Mercurial89]

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

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That Sydney loss looks about right.

 

[Ati Tude]

That Sydney loss looks about right.

Does it give a predicted free kick count too? Probably 10-22 based on that scoreline. Pleased with our performance against the Dogs but disappointing to lose another final.

Well done Dogs. Heartbreak for Demons after all these years. Will be back for pre-season.

 

[fishardansin]

Was that "the" Tom Fields

Tom Fields

Age

31

Ht

192cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

4.0

5star

MG

354.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.5

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.5

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

4.0

5star

MG

354.0

5star

?

 

[eth-dog]

Was that "the" Tom Fields?

Yes

 

[eth-dog]

Sydney home, Freo gone with no Fyfe or Walters for the rest of the season. Last two spots between GWS, Richmond, us and West Coast, and maaaaaaybe St. Kilda.

 

[fishardansin]

Had a look at the fixture for all sides.

If Essendon win today and Richmond loses, Essendon is a game clear and a big percentage gap too, so almost two games clear.

However, all four of Richmond's games look very winnable whereas Essendon goes into 1 game as slight underdog, 1 as highly unlikely and 2 games we "should" win.

I think it comes down to this: Richmond must lose today and Essendon must beat both Sydney teams, this week and next week. If that doesn't happen we don't make it.

I give us a 35% chance of making it.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Richmond looking very underwhelming.

 

[YoboD]

Feels like every result is going our way this weekend with almost every other contender falling over around us. Hopefully we don’t get an Essington ‘hold my beer’ style performance.

 

[eth-dog]

Richmond looking very underwhelming.

Not anymore

 

[doug85]

Had a look at the fixture for all sides.

If Essendon win today and Richmond loses, Essendon is a game clear and a big percentage gap too, so almost two games clear.

However, all four of Richmond's games look very winnable whereas Essendon goes into 1 game as slight underdog, 1 as highly unlikely and 2 games we "should" win.

I think it comes down to this: Richmond must lose today and Essendon must beat both Sydney teams, this week and next week. If that doesn't happen we don't make it.

I give us a 35% chance of making it.

Agree. I reckon we need to beat the swans to make it now. I see it as a 50/50 game if they don’t have buddy

 

[boncer34]

Well that's likely us done. I tipped us bottom 4 so they've proved me wrong.

 

[fishardansin]

Hype train officially derailed now.

 

[eth-dog]

West Coast can probably seal it if they beat Collingwood this week. That'll keep them 2 games ahead this week.
GWS and Richmond still have tough runs home, but I'd be favouring the latter to get back in
We need to beat Sydney, pure and simple
St. Kilda need a scalp of Sydney or Geelong as well as beating both Carlton and Freo

Honest to god I have no idea who goes through. Top 6 are home but my best guess is that West Coast and Richmond make it through

 

[Halftimehero]

I hadn’t given it a lot of thought until now but geez we’ve been royally screwed having to stay in QLD, teams are playing and flying into Melbourne yet we are forced to give up crucial home games.

Don’t know how it could work but we should be given the Gold Coast game back in Melbourne as compensation or at least in Tasmania or something, we shouldn’t have to go back up there if in fact we are even back home by then.

 

[DapperDon]

Playing the Dogs next Friday at Marvel

Then fly back to play GC at Metricon

I wonder if they even thought of swapping our GC match with Dogs this week

 

[LB#16]

Jon Ralph reporting that the game vs Bulldogs next week won't be Friday night as scheduled. The AFL are trying to avoid giving the dogs an extra day break now that Essendon were scheduled to have a 5 day break.