Prediction The run home - how many do we win?

[Pessimistic]

I think we will drop a game and miss out.... but it would be really fun if that was the last game of the year, just to see the build up of teams/supporters getting bloody nervous that hawthorn is coming again lol

11 and a draw would leave us neutral on the all time win low ratio so OK with that

 

[OzJohnnie]

Wait a minute, Friday afternoon they were premiership favourites!

My like-ban is killing me. Word of advice to everyone: Do not like troll other boards. It's not as clever as you may think.

 

[Smooth Banana]

Barring some sort of disaster from one of the teams in the 8, we need to win all of our remaining games and have at least one of the following happen:
1) Essendon drop 2 games (run home: dogs, blues, crows, suns, dockers)
2) Sydney drop 2 games (run home: cats, dockers, crows, blues)

Bolded the games we have a heavy interest in.. Don't think many other games impact our finals chances..

Would be interesting if we did make it, given we would have won 8 of our last 10 (including 6 in a row) leading into finals, and the only other 2 games being the 3 point loss to Geelong and the draw with the Giants.. We would have won against, or finished within 3 points of every other team in the finals except Port Adelaide and be full of confidence.

I think games against Richmond, North and the Bulldogs are all a chance to put an end to our finals hopes though unfortunately!

disagree, we can still drop a game under a number of scenarios that aren't far fetched.

I found many ways for us to make it, but here's one such example if say we lose next week to Tigers, we could make it if these kinds of results go our way.
* games are the one's that we need extra luck - but easily could happen

-Giants beat Melbourne
-St Kilda beat West Coast
-Giants beat Bulldogs
-St Kilda beat Melbourne
-Port beat Bulldogs at Ethiad*
-Giants beat West Coast
-North beat St Kilda*
-Adelaide beat West Coast at Perth*
-Collingwood beat Melbourne*
-Richmond beat St Kilda

Refer to Cryptor's table on page 2 of this thread, will make things clearer.

 

[Davo-27]

Richmond will be a Challenge, Hardwick has an edge over Clarko and seems to beat us even when they're a rabble...

 

[MowShow]

Refer to Cryptor's table on page 2 of this thread, will make things clearer.

I have a similar table going:

Get behind the Bulldogs today everyone!

 

[QuietB]

I have a similar table going:

Get behind the Bulldogs today everyone!

Jeez Essendon get kissed on the dick.

Lions, blues, crows, dockers and pies twice. That is 4 teams in the bottom 6

That is the reason Hawthorn will miss. Piss off

 

[Gaston]

I have a similar table going:

Get behind the Bulldogs today everyone!

Put Richmond in there, you might be surprised.
It is possible that they could lose all 4 of their remaining games, highly unlikely but not
a far stretch of the imagination.

 

[MowShow]

Put Richmond in there, you might be surprised.
It is possible that they could lose all 4 of their remaining games, highly unlikely but not
a far stretch of the imagination.

Richmond could lose all 4 of their remaining games but they could just as easily win all 4. They will likely go into 3 of those games as favourites.

That's all well and good but the problem with adding them is that we may well NEED them to beat St Kilda in Round 23, in which case their position in the 8 will become unattainable for us.

If St Kilda lose one of their next 3 matches, we can start thinking about Richmond.

 

[Dave Id]

My like-ban is killing me. Word of advice to everyone: Do not like troll other boards. It's not as clever as you may think.

Seems I received the same.
Wondered what was going on.
Don't consider that I trolled anyone.
Just lost any respect for one of our two best combatants,Geelong being the other. Love those games.

 

[FisherHawk]

Results going our way so far. Dog's pushing the scum out Of The 8. Now time to cheer on the Lions, although unlikely to trouble the Eagles.

 

[Pessimistic]

Despite results going our way, squiggle has stolen a win back - since fridays results - Leaving a predicted 10 wins 1 draw

That's despite the individual game predictions saying 12 wins a draw

Squiggle hates us and loves chokers like the swans

 

[OzJohnnie]

Despite results going our way, squiggle has stolen a win back - since fridays results - Leaving a predicted 10 wins 1 draw

That's despite the individual game predictions saying 12 wins a draw

Squiggle hates us and loves chokers like the swans

Well, it's merely a digital algorithm in an analogue world. It's doing it's best but in the end can only ever be an approximation. This year the analogues win.

 

[philohk]

Despite results going our way, squiggle has stolen a win back - since fridays results - Leaving a predicted 10 wins 1 draw

That's despite the individual game predictions saying 12 wins a draw

Squiggle hates us and loves chokers like the swans

That's because the Dogs outperformed the prediction, so they shot up - that was enough to tip the Squiggle in the game against us.

 

[Gralin]

Despite results going our way, squiggle has stolen a win back - since fridays results - Leaving a predicted 10 wins 1 draw

That's despite the individual game predictions saying 12 wins a draw

Squiggle hates us and loves chokers like the swans

with the doggies wining that game becomes even more 50/50 in the squiggles eyes, the North game I think got a bight tighter with their win over the Dees, Tigers and Blues games look about the same
It's still actually tipping us to win all four it's just that two of those are coin tosses and the blues is the closest to a gimme as far as it's concerned

 

[philohk]

I have a similar table going:

Get behind the Bulldogs today everyone!

This is a nice way of doing it. I think there are more permutations than that going up to us finishing 5th or possibly even higher, but to focus on the six teams above us that are more catchable:

We're a game behind St Kilda and Essendon, so they need to drop at least one more each. Most likely losses bolded:

St Kilda: West Coast (H), Melbourne (A), North Melbourne, Richmond (A)
Essendon: Carlton (H), Adelaide (H), Gold Coast (A), Fremantle (H)

Looks OK - if we keep winning I think we jump both.

The other teams we need to drop two to overtake:

Sydney: Geelong (A), Fremantle (H), Adelaide (A - note you had this as a home game), Carlton (H)
Melbourne: GWS (A), St Kilda (H), Brisbane (H), Collingwood
West Coast: St Kilda (A), Carlton (H), GWS (A), Adelaide (H)
Bulldogs: Brisbane (A), GWS (H), Port Adelaide (H*), Hawthorn (H - this is the one we need to win)

So we need to jump four teams total. If we keep winning we probably jump the Saints and Bombers. I think the Swans drop the Cats and Crows games and hope the Eagles drop the Saints and Giants games. The Dees and Dogs look more solid - Dogs might win their next three, as the Giants aren't setting the world on fire.

In other news, my fingernails are vanishing.

 

[Thaihawk]

Since this is the tread of dreams, here's mine. We win our 4 remaining games and finish 8th, pushing, not Richmond, but Sydney. (To quote Bruce, "they will make finals, which has never been done with 0-6 start.")

We will go on to win our 14th flag, Jaeger will win the Normie, and the football world will go into meltdown.
Horse will be coach of the year again, for what he achieved after a 0-6 start.

Seriously if we can win our last 4, we should play finals, which would be a great experience for our young players, and we can send our general off in style.

 

[Sydney_hawk]

I can't see us loosing another game and sneak in at 8 spot.

 

[Since 2001]

We need to win every game and get some surprise results to go our way as well to really improve our odds.

I feel that if we make it, we can go to the prelims then its anything from there.

 

[Hodginator]

Giving up a 43 point lead to collingwood is the one that hurts most. Then the 2nd geelong loss & the draw.

Yes, this is all true. I was more referring to those other games because I hate losing to those sides probably more than any.

 

[Aramis]

Its simple, we win the next 4 we will make finals.
I just did ladder predictor and would be incredibly unlucky after winning our remaining 4 not to make it.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

We need to win every game and get some surprise results to go our way as well to really improve our odds.

I feel that if we make it, we can go to the prelims then its anything from there.

To be honest if we win our last 4 we'd be about an 80% chance of making finals.

 

[mrcurly]

This thread is pretty hilarious, considering we were just about cooked when it was started. Having just run through a ladder predictor, its plausible we could even finish as high as 7th, with the Swans or Essendon in 8th. That scenario would be an elim final against the Demons. Though on the other hand.... the results this season have been pretty topsy turvy and we may not make it at all. Tough to pick the final weeks of a season, too many sides either way out of contention and not going at 100% (like Brisbane managing players against the Eagles today) - or entrenched in a position in the top 8 and not necessarily wanting to bust a gut if they are already locked in.
I think if we can beat the tigers next week - and watching them play GC that is entirely possible, it could be time to open the 'who will we play in the elimination final' thread.

 

[swampy]

Good results for us today!
A) Our chances of making the finals (assuming we win all remaining games) are now 63% (was 57%).
B) If we lose any game, we now have a 5% change of making finals (was 3%).

Great result with the Dogs getting up.
A) Our chances of making the finals (assuming we win all remaining games) are now 69% (was 63%).
B) If we lose any game, we now have a 4% change of making finals (was 5%).

Next week, we should be backing Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Carlton, St Kilda and Brisbane.

These probabilities are based on the prediction matrix below

 

[Nugett]

I'm saying 320. That puts our next loss in 2031

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

Seems I received the same.
Wondered what was going on.
Don't consider that I trolled anyone.
Just lost any respect for one of our two best combatants,Geelong being the other. Love those games.

In October 2014 I *may* have asked a small number of our good friends on the Swans board if it was difficult for Bud and Jacinta to have guests over given they don't have enough cups. They don't let me on their board now.
I would've thought they could afford some more... I guess not.