Prediction The run home - how many do we win?

[The Cryptkeeper]

Richmond will be a Challenge, Hardwick has an edge over Clarko and seems to beat us even when they're a rabble...

Mate, that is a fallacy.

2016 - Hawthorn won both games by 46 and 70 points respectively.
2015 - Richmond won the only meeting by 18 points.
2014 - Hawthorn won by 66 points. That was the only time the two sides met in 2014.

Over the past three years we have dished out 3 decent beatings and suffered one narrow loss to the Tigers.

Clarkson also leads Hardwick 5-3 overall.

 

[Hodginator]

 

[Thaihawk]

Its simple, we win the next 4 we will make finals.
I just did ladder predictor and would be incredibly unlucky after winning our remaining 4 not to make it.

Actually, and this is without analyzing each team, I think if we win every game we will be in, regardless of other results. Having said that, I have to say, due to our young and inexperienced group, we will probably drop one game and just miss out.

Which ever way it goes, being a Hawk supporter is great, and we have an exciting future to look forward to; some of things I am looking forward to:
1. Jaeger playing one or two games this year. Even more, if we sneak into the finals where he could be our X factor.
2. Contract extensions for our youngsters expected to be announced soon.
3. Trade and draft period, rookie updates, f/s and academy selections being of special interest.
4. Recruits Cyril, Cegs, Chip etc. being 100% fit for 2018.
Great times ahead - once again - for Hawk fans.

 

[MowShow]

Dangerfield out really hurts us this Friday.. Never thought I'd say it but I hope he gets off!!

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Dangerfield out really hurts us this Friday.. Never thought I'd say it but I hope he gets off!!

They will beat Sydney anyway.

The circle-jerk surrounding Sydney is ridiculous. They have the same shittruck, treacle slow and exploitable midfield that they have had for years and Buddy aside, they do not have one regular matchwinner.

They are just an average side and won't be winning at the Cattery or in Adelaide.

 

[MowShow]

They will beat Sydney anyway.

The circle-jerk surrounding Sydney is ridiculous. They have the same shittruck, treacle slow and exploitable midfield that they have had for years and Buddy aside, they do not have one regular matchwinner.

They are just an average side and won't be winning at the Cattery or in Adelaide.

I'm not saying the Swans are spectacular but the cats do not bat deep at all.

Do I need to remind you that Fremantle missed a shot on the siren to beat them in Geelong a few weeks back? It's not the fortress it was once touted to be.

Adelaide also just lost to Collingwood so we can't be putting all our eggs in that basket.

The more challenges they're faced with the better for us.

 

[Hawk_francais]

So, after Sydney and Melbourne's unexpected losses over the weekend, they are now back in the danger zone, needing 3 wins from their next 4 games to clear the 50 point mark (which is our highest possible target).

Sydney (40 points) would only need to drop tough games against Geelong (in Geelong) and Adelaide (in Adelaide) in order to finish on 48 points and likely miss finals. Their other games against Freo and Carlton at home should be in the bag.

Melbourne (40 points) face GWS next week, a likely loss, but after that they should get through against the Saints, Lions and Pies to finish the season strongly and still claim 6-7th spot.

If West Coast (40 points) win next week, and then they beat Carlton and Adelaide at home (very conceivable), then their spot in the 8 is safe.

The Bulldogs (40 points), did everyone a favour by deflating Essendon's chances, but unfortunately they've found good form in the process! They should make short work of the Lions next week, but we're banking on a loss to either GWS (MCG) or Port (in Adelaide) before we get a chance to slay the beast ourselves in round 23.

Essendon (36 points) are still a decent smoky for finals. Their draw is favourable, with a big game against Adelaide in two weeks. Like us, they probably need to win all their games to be safe. In a deadlock 48 point finish, they might still scrape into finals on good percentage.

St Kilda (36 points) are now within striking distance of the Hawks - with a very tough run home, too - however, we should be cheering for the Saints next week against West Coast (at Docklands), as the Eagles are a much more likely finals chance at this point.

All things considered, I'd say there is a likelihood that WC, Bulldogs, and Essendon and St Kilda will all finish on 48 points or less. We therefore have our destiny much more in our hands than champion data have suggested. I'd say we have a better than 9% chance of winning our next 4 games. Hodge out doesn't help though!

 

[Hawks future]

So, after Sydney and Melbourne's unexpected losses over the weekend, they are now back in the danger zone, needing 3 wins from their next 4 games to clear the 50 point mark (which is our highest possible target).

Sydney (40 points) would only need to drop tough games against Geelong (in Geelong) and Adelaide (in Adelaide) in order to finish on 48 points and likely miss finals. Their other games against Freo and Carlton at home should be in the bag.

Melbourne (40 points) face GWS next week, a likely loss, but after that they should get through against the Saints, Lions and Pies to finish the season strongly and still claim 6-7th spot.

If West Coast (40 points) win next week, and then they beat Carlton and Adelaide at home (very conceivable), then their spot in the 8 is safe.

The Bulldogs (40 points), did everyone a favour by deflating Essendon's chances, but unfortunately they've found good form in the process! They should make short work of the Lions next week, but we're banking on a loss to either GWS (MCG) or Port (in Adelaide) before we get a chance to slay the beast ourselves in round 23.

Essendon (36 points) are still a decent smoky for finals. Their draw is favourable, with a big game against Adelaide in two weeks. Like us, they probably need to win all their games to be safe. In a deadlock 48 point finish, they might still scrape into finals on good percentage.

St Kilda (36 points) are now within striking distance of the Hawks - with a very tough run home, too - however, we should be cheering for the Saints next week against West Coast (at Docklands), as the Eagles are a much more likely finals chance at this point.

All things considered, I'd say there is a likelihood that WC, Bulldogs, and Essendon and St Kilda will all finish on 48 points or less. We therefore have our destiny much more in our hands than champion data have suggested. I'd say we have a better than 9% chance of winning our next 4 games. Hodge out doesn't help though!

great message been thinking this for about 2 weeks exactly really thought out well done

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Beating Richmond this week will be extremely tough with Hodge out on top of everything else, its doable but its no longer a 50-50 game IMO.

 

[Agent Smith]

Beating Richmond this week will be extremely tough with Hodge out on top of everything else, its doable but its no longer a 50-50 game IMO.

When have we EVER done things easy?

 

[OzJohnnie]

When have we EVER done things easy?

 

[Gralin]

So after Round 19 our chances of making the 8 more than doubled, we went from around a 4% chance to a 9% chance

At this point Hawks can finish anywhere from 5th to 15th, 12th is the most likely position for us to finish

Win three out of four and we are still a 20% chance to make finals, win all four and we are around a 90% chance to make finals.

So winning out isn't enough we need some help, if enough things go our way there is a very small chance of hosting an elimination final

 

[Agent Smith]

Now describe the events of the year leading up to that!!

 

[IdiotBox]

Here's another example of someone with too much time on their hands.

It's an interesting read though!

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...sics-afl-finals-swing-which-games-matter-most

 

[Satchel]

Since this is the tread of dreams, here's mine. We win our 4 remaining games and finish 8th, pushing, not Richmond, but Sydney. (To quote Bruce, "they will make finals, which has never been done with 0-6 start.")

We will go on to win our 14th flag, Jaeger will win the Normie, and the football world will go into meltdown.
Horse will be coach of the year again, for what he achieved after a 0-6 start.

Seriously if we can win our last 4, we should play finals, which would be a great experience for our young players, and we can send our general off in style.

Hope you are right - its my shout

 

[Smooth Banana]

So, after Sydney and Melbourne's unexpected losses over the weekend, they are now back in the danger zone, needing 3 wins from their next 4 games to clear the 50 point mark (which is our highest possible target).

Sydney (40 points) would only need to drop tough games against Geelong (in Geelong) and Adelaide (in Adelaide) in order to finish on 48 points and likely miss finals. Their other games against Freo and Carlton at home should be in the bag.

Melbourne (40 points) face GWS next week, a likely loss, but after that they should get through against the Saints, Lions and Pies to finish the season strongly and still claim 6-7th spot.

If West Coast (40 points) win next week, and then they beat Carlton and Adelaide at home (very conceivable), then their spot in the 8 is safe.

The Bulldogs (40 points), did everyone a favour by deflating Essendon's chances, but unfortunately they've found good form in the process! They should make short work of the Lions next week, but we're banking on a loss to either GWS (MCG) or Port (in Adelaide) before we get a chance to slay the beast ourselves in round 23.

Essendon (36 points) are still a decent smoky for finals. Their draw is favourable, with a big game against Adelaide in two weeks. Like us, they probably need to win all their games to be safe. In a deadlock 48 point finish, they might still scrape into finals on good percentage.

St Kilda (36 points) are now within striking distance of the Hawks - with a very tough run home, too - however, we should be cheering for the Saints next week against West Coast (at Docklands), as the Eagles are a much more likely finals chance at this point.

All things considered, I'd say there is a likelihood that WC, Bulldogs, and Essendon and St Kilda will all finish on 48 points or less. We therefore have our destiny much more in our hands than champion data have suggested. I'd say we have a better than 9% chance of winning our next 4 games. Hodge out doesn't help though!

This week we definitely need the Saints to beat the Eagles, Cats to beat Swans and GWS to beat the Demons. A miracle win by the Lions and the Blues would be huge for us.

 

[zenmasterfu]

This week we definitely need the Saints to beat the Eagles, Cats to beat Swans and GWS to beat the Demons. A miracle win by the Lions and the Blues would be huge for us.

I don't think we definitely need all those games, but they would definitely help.

Not like the Cats to help us out though is it. Useless

 

[Gralin]

Stats say Swans win we get a 10% boost cats a 13%
The most important game is our own
4th-8th is up for grabs for us if the squiggles favorites wins every game in the current predictions we finish 6th
Who wins this game in isolation isn't a big deal

 

[Pessimistic]

So Scott's the hardest to coach against?

Even I could move Taylor back to stem the carnage

 

[Smooth Banana]

Stats say Swans win we get a 10% boost cats a 13%
The most important game is our own
4th-8th is up for grabs for us if the squiggles favorites wins every game in the current predictions we finish 6th
Who wins this game in isolation isn't a big deal

What % do we have of making finals if we win all our games?

A cats win could have opened up a spot with Swans playing Crows. I reckon Swans will make finals now. Geelong looked terrible without Danger, can't believe it's the same team.

 

[Gralin]

What % do we have of making finals if we win all our games?

A cats win could have opened up a spot with Swans playing Crows. I reckon Swans will make finals now. Geelong looked terrible without Danger, can't believe it's the same team.

prior to this round winning out gave us about a 90% chance

 

[philohk]

Well that was shit. Though Matter of Stats only has our chances dropping 1.9%, so now 7.1%. But the most important games every week are still our own.

 

[IdiotBox]

They will beat Sydney anyway.

The circle-jerk surrounding Sydney is ridiculous. They have the same shittruck, treacle slow and exploitable midfield that they have had for years and Buddy aside, they do not have one regular matchwinner.

They are just an average side and won't be winning at the Cattery or in Adelaide.

oops.

 

[MowShow]

They will beat Sydney anyway.

The circle-jerk surrounding Sydney is ridiculous. They have the same shittruck, treacle slow and exploitable midfield that they have had for years and Buddy aside, they do not have one regular matchwinner.

They are just an average side and won't be winning at the Cattery or in Adelaide.

...You were saying?

Think we can put a line through Sydney's spot now.. Hopefully GWS get up today!

 

[hk89]

...You were saying?

Think we can put a line through Sydney's spot now.

Yes, disappointing timing on the Dangerwood train derailing. I had Sydney as one of the two clubs we had a good chance of jumping over into the 8 due to their away games against Adelaide and Cats. We now need them to still lose to Adelaide, but have an upset loss at their own home against either Freo or Carlton, which seems very unlikely. Still think we are a good chance if we can win all 4, because WC has a few losable games, and if we can beat doggies, we only need them to lose one of Port and GWS for us to jump over them. Still need Bombers and Saints to both lose at least one though. If Bomber's win all 4, we would also need Melbourne to drop 2 games. If they win against GWS, they only need 2 of Saints/Pies/Lions to hold their spot in the 8.