Oddly enough, it is still possible for us to finish top 4! Just did a ladder predictor with best possible results for us, and we sneak into fourth spot. Requires a bunch of very implausible results, but fun to see it is still possible.
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Prediction The run home - how many do we win?
- Thread starter philohk
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- Aug 19, 2013
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Last thing we want is them playing for a spot in the finals next week. Better they are comfortable next week knowing they will play finals. Big difference between good Richmond and bad Richmond. Let's just concede with Richmond and collectively will them over the Suns.
I did the ladder predictor and there's going to be a big logjam of sides on 12 wins I reckon.
That means if we get 12.5 wins (i.e. win every game) we're in.
If we lose one and finish with 11.5 wins, we're well out.
Brant
Brownlow Medallist
Deep down, every Richmond player has the natural instinct to want to finish 9th.
Let them lose this week & to us next week - it is their destiny!
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- Aug 19, 2013
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Spot on, we really need the Dogs to get up. Could be the most important game in all those scenarios that we need to fall our way. Massive game, get behind the Dogs people. I'd love to see a few Hawthorn scarves at the game. Alternatively, burning Essendon scarves. I'm living overseas so can't make it, someone go for me. Cheers
- Aug 19, 2013
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No doubt about it, we drop a game and we are out. If we beat Richmond, should get over Carlton and North. Last game against Dogs might be for 8th spot. Epic.
If, if, if...
I voted win every game. I'm so one-eyed its not funny. The way we are playing, I see us beating all those teams. Just a shame we left our run late. If we make the 8 it will be glorious. For the first time in years, I don't even care if we don't win the flag. But if we did...getting ahead of myself.
Yes, while a best case scenario can still have us sneak into 4th, doing a realistic predictor (on the assumption we win the rest of our games), I have us on 12.5 and finishing in 7th, with Melbourne and Port above us on 13, and Essendon/Bulldogs/Sydney below us on 12. Biggest problem is going to be winning our 4 I think. Tigers/Dogs are close to 50/50, and even Carlton and Roos have shown they are good enough to produce multiple upsets this year.
Holy Rioli
Premiership Player
I'm only going to vote after we've beaten Richmond and North. There aren't enough poll options available for me to vote now.
Good results for us today!
A) Our chances of making the finals (assuming we win all remaining games) are now 63% (was 57%).
B) If we lose any game, we now have a 5% change of making finals (was 3%).
The second loss to the Suns, they are putrid.
MowShow
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- May 10, 2012
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Barring some sort of disaster from one of the teams in the 8, we need to win all of our remaining games and have at least one of the following happen:
1) Essendon drop 2 games (run home: dogs, blues, crows, suns, dockers)
2) Sydney drop 2 games (run home: cats, dockers, crows, blues)
Bolded the games we have a heavy interest in.. Don't think many other games impact our finals chances..
Would be interesting if we did make it, given we would have won 8 of our last 10 (including 6 in a row) leading into finals, and the only other 2 games being the 3 point loss to Geelong and the draw with the Giants.. We would have won against, or finished within 3 points of every other team in the finals except Port Adelaide and be full of confidence.
I think games against Richmond, North and the Bulldogs are all a chance to put an end to our finals hopes though unfortunately!
1) Essendon drop 2 games (run home: dogs, blues, crows, suns, dockers)
2) Sydney drop 2 games (run home: cats, dockers, crows, blues)
Bolded the games we have a heavy interest in.. Don't think many other games impact our finals chances..
Would be interesting if we did make it, given we would have won 8 of our last 10 (including 6 in a row) leading into finals, and the only other 2 games being the 3 point loss to Geelong and the draw with the Giants.. We would have won against, or finished within 3 points of every other team in the finals except Port Adelaide and be full of confidence.
I think games against Richmond, North and the Bulldogs are all a chance to put an end to our finals hopes though unfortunately!
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Hopefully the Doggies beat the Scum today.
- Jun 28, 2013
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A lot of teams will be scared if we make it into the finals. And if we beat the Tigers this weekend I include them as one of the scared teams
Will only be Port and Bombers we haven't beat in the 8
Will only be Port and Bombers we haven't beat in the 8
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Melbourne could also drop 2 games in the run in potentially.
- Jun 28, 2013
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Easily
I've done a few ladder predictions and was pleasantly surprised when most lead to us making the 8. But yeah - we drop a game and we're gone
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Holy Rioli
Premiership Player
Just did a ladder predictor - just as a joke, this could potentially be a grand final preview:
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Imagine playing Melbourne in an elimination final, we would get the job done IMO, will be very hard for us to win our last 4 though in such an even competition.
- Jun 28, 2013
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I created one where we play the Bombers in the GF and win
I then prayed for it to happen 30 times to a non-existent god (just in case)
I then prayed for it to happen 30 times to a non-existent god (just in case)
disagree, we can still drop a game under a number of scenarios that aren't far fetched.
I found many ways for us to make it, but here's one such example if say we lose next week to Tigers, we could make it if these kinds of results go our way.
* games are the one's that we need extra luck - but easily could happen
-Giants beat Melbourne
-St Kilda beat West Coast
-Giants beat Bulldogs
-St Kilda beat Melbourne
-Port beat Bulldogs at Ethiad*
-Giants beat West Coast
-North beat St Kilda*
-Adelaide beat West Coast at Perth*
-Collingwood beat Melbourne*
-Richmond beat St Kilda
You are actually highlighting there's a strong chance of a port v Adelaide grand final
I think we will drop a game and miss out.... but it would be really fun if that was the last game of the year, just to see the build up of teams/supporters getting bloody nervous that hawthorn is coming again lol
- Jun 28, 2013
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Wait a minute, Friday afternoon they were premiership favourites!
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