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Brownlow Medallist
There is a small but not negligible chance that provided we beat both Melbourne and GWS, (and win one other game) that 12 wins is enough, because locking in those losses for those two teams it makes it that much more likely that they both finish on also on exactly 12 wins, other results means that there's only 0 or 1 (finishing 7th) teams on exactly 13 wins, and percentage helps us sneak into 8th (while we may go through with only 12 wins with a loss to those two teams, the chances are virtually nil, as it requires both GWS and Melbourne to lose multiple games they shouldn't lose). The chance of this happening is probably over 2%, which is not insignificant.Next three games are massive. Its pointless to do in depth predictions as this season is a box of chocolates. Every chance we beat Geelong and Sydney but then loose to Crows at this rate.
The thing that is for sure though is that the eight point games against Giants and Melbourne are massive. Especially considering we lost to Port. You'd think we will have to win both of those if we wanna make it.
If we can somehow pinch a win against either Geelong or Sydney that would be huge
It's despite the difficult draw and the Port loss being a key 8-pointer the betting odds are not so down on us - the bookies can run simulations on the season and this 12-win scenario does happen a few times.
AFL Simulation Results
Consider how GWS are 51.9% chance to make finals, we are a 48.3% chance, and Melbourne a 45.7% chance. But we're a much greater chance to finish exactly 8th than both teams (12.4% vs. 11.6% and 10.%), which is interesting.