Analysis The run home

[WWSD]

Win our last two games and we can finish either 3rd or 4th. I'd much rather take a chance and play Richmond at the MCG in a Qualifying Final then have to play West Coast in Perth.

 

[Nugett]

Geez we are already planning the GF.

Better start organising celebrations

View attachment 542011

 

[Mr Chuckles]

So next week - if Port beat Collingwood, GWS beat Sydney, WCE beat Melbourne, and we beat (ideally thrash STK) we make the top 4 almost no matter what happens in the last round.Those results would leave us a game and 7% inside the top 4.

Exciting times. We're almost certain of making the 8 and probably more likely than not to make the top 4. That first ever final against Richmond could be coming...

I'm finding it tough to see Port beating Collingwood next week - 1 win from their last 5 games and they have some new injuries to cover, will be up against it. We'll almost certainly have to beat both the Saints and Swans to make it - what a fantastic position we find ourselves in though!

 

[JD888]

Genuine question and apologies for my naivety but I never quite got this. Did it mean that you thought we would come 9th or was it something to do with posting a dumb thread?

 

[Davo-27]

just focus on beating St Kilda and let the chips fall where they may, for me beating St Kilda means we get some finals experience into these lads and if lady luck smiles on us we can do a 2008.....

 

[killerspud]

Win our last two games and we can finish either 3rd or 4th. I'd much rather take a chance and play Richmond at the MCG in a Qualifying Final then have to play West Coast in Perth.

A west coast without Nic Nat, Gaff maybe Kennedy.

Stratton on Darling
Hardwick on LeCras

All we really have to do is make sure someone plays on ****ing McGovern and holds him accountable

To be honest I can't see us losing to them

 

[Randy Campbell]

Win our last two games and we can finish either 3rd or 4th. I'd much rather take a chance and play Richmond at the MCG in a Qualifying Final then have to play West Coast in Perth.

Beating them both at at home looks to be the hardest way.
Doing it that way gives us our best chance to win the GF.

 

[killerspud]

just focus on beating St Kilda and let the chips fall where they may, for me beating St Kilda means we get some finals experience into these lads and if lady luck smiles on us we can do a 2008.....

Nothing like 2008.

2 x 4-time Premiership players
6 x 3-time Premiership players
+ other players with flag experience even amongst our depth players

If we get there we will have more than lady luck - we will have a team of battle hardened veterans who have been there done that along with some very exciting players with experience form other clubs (TOM JOM Impey Henderson) along with a raft of young talent eager to prove themselves

I think if we can finish 3rd we can win the flag.

 

[thejockey]

Let’s worry about knocking the saints off , that locks the top 8 spot in ( most likely is now ) and gives us an opportunity at a top 4 spot

A few sides in the last couple of weeks have got ahead of themselves and it hasn’t gone well for them

 

[Dewnior]

If GWS beat Sydney and we lose to Sydney we are still top four.

Not if Pies or Dees win their last two games

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

West Coast aren’t certain for top 2. The Dees and Brissy in Brissy could go either way.

 

[GlenferrieOval3122]

Next Sunday we need to come out in the first quarter and let the saints know we are going to be their worst nightmare, they then drop their heads and we put a cricket score on them. They have nothing to play for and the culture is shot, we need to work them hard early and then put the foot down. Collingwood are tailgating us in the 8 and it's really annoying so we need to back them off.

 

[bumsonseats]

Next Sunday we need to come out in the first quarter and let the saints know we are going to be their worst nightmare, they then drop their heads and we put a cricket score on them. They have nothing to play for and the culture is shot, we need to work them hard early and then put the foot down. Collingwood are tailgating us in the 8 and it's really annoying so we need to back them off.

Spot on.....20 goal win ;-)
They are a rabble.

Ww can worry about what happens after that when it happens.

Every finals game we get into the kids is a mega bonus

 

[HODGEYROAD]

WCE in Perth is an easier game than Richmond with the key players the Eagles have missing at the moment.

 

[thejockey]

WCE in Perth is an easier game than Richmond with the key players the Eagles have missing at the moment.

Whoever finishes 4th though can almost look at that game as a free hit
No one will expect them to be Richmond at the MCG , all pressure will be on the Tigers plus you have the double chance

 

[Pessimistic]

WCE in Perth is an easier game than Richmond with the key players the Eagles have missing at the moment.

Depending on ticketing, we have as good a chance of making a loud presence at west coasts home as we do against the up and about tiger army

 

[Pessimistic]

Just making a prelim would be very nice after our commentary pre season.

Nice seeing gunner Bruest stratton poppy Shiels big boy and smithy etc getting kudos as more than just coat tail riders, which of course they never were.
Perhaps not out and out mongrels but Sicily Howe worpel Impey Hardwick taking up the slack nicely

 

[bumsonseats]

Whoever finishes 4th though can almost look at that game as a free hit
No one will expect them to be Richmond at the MCG , all pressure will be on the Tigers plus you have the double chance

Don’t worry.....I have that covered.
Rance will have a dodgy chocolate milk on the morning of the game ;-)

 

[Danton]

Next Sunday we need to come out in the first quarter and let the saints know we are going to be their worst nightmare, they then drop their heads and we put a cricket score on them. They have nothing to play for and the culture is shot, we need to work them hard early and then put the foot down. Collingwood are tailgating us in the 8 and it's really annoying so we need to back them off.

Even better, we better "turn up" on Saturday in time for the match....

 

[Carl Spackler]

We've got to beat whoever is in front of us in order to win it. You've got to beat the best to be the best.

Finishing fourth gives us the opportunity to beat Richmond twice.

 

[cryptor]

If Port beat Pies this week we can potentially lose to Swans and still hold 4th spot if we maintain good percentage with a win over the Saints.

Even with a loss to the Swans I have this final ladder:

1. Richmond 72 139.7%
2. West Coast 68 124.3%
3. GWS Giants 62 120.2%
4. Hawthorn 56 122.3%
5. Collingwood 56 118.3%
6. Port Adelaide 56 116.4%
7. Sydney Swans 56 108.6%
8. Geelong Cats 52 120.0%

Then if we can manage to beat Tigers at the G in a QF...

QF1 Richmond vs Hawthorn MCG
QF2 West Coast vs Giants OS
EF1 Collingwood vs Geelong MCG
EF2 Port Adelaide vs Sydney AO

SF1 Richmond vs Collingwood MCG
SF2 West Coast vs Port Adrlaide OS

PF1 Hawthorn vs West Coast MCG
PF2 Giants vs Richmond Spotless

GF Hawthorn vs Giants MCG

This is a very realistic final ladder in that it doesn’t rely on any unreasonable/unlikely results or margins.

The finals series is also quite reasonable. The true challenge is that QF against Richmond. We then get one of Eagles, Port, or Swans at the G in a PF. Richmond go to the other side playing Pies or Cats at the G before backing that up with an interstate PF against the Giants or Eagles - Richmond have only won a single interstate game this year, against the Suns on Saturday.

It’s a lot harder if we lose that QF to Richmond as it would be a SF against Pies or Cats before having to go interstate against Eagles or Giants and then back it up against (likely) Richmond again.

So we have a reasonable chance at the flag if we can upset Richmond in that QF.

PS. If you don’t think Pies would lose to Port this week, then assuming we beat Swans round 23 we would still get a similar sort of ladder with a similar degree of difficulty. Same key challenge of Tigers in the QF.

 

[Pessimistic]

If Port beat Pies this week we can potentially lose to Swans and still hold 4th spot if we maintain good percentage with a win over the Saints.

Even with a loss to the Swans I have this final ladder:

1. Richmond 72 139.7%
2. West Coast 68 124.3%
3. GWS Giants 62 120.2%
4. Hawthorn 56 122.3%
5. Collingwood 56 118.3%
6. Port Adelaide 56 116.4%
7. Sydney Swans 56 108.6%
8. Geelong Cats 52 120.0%

Then if we can manage to beat Tigers at the G in a QF...

QF1 Richmond vs Hawthorn MCG
QF2 West Coast vs Giants OS
EF1 Collingwood vs Geelong MCG
EF2 Port Adelaide vs Sydney AO

SF1 Richmond vs Collingwood MCG
SF2 West Coast vs Port Adrlaide OS

PF1 Hawthorn vs West Coast MCG
PF2 Giants vs Richmond Spotless

GF Hawthorn vs Giants MCG

This is a very realistic final ladder in that it doesn’t rely on any unreasonable/unlikely results or margins.

The finals series is also quite reasonable. The true challenge is that QF against Richmond. We then get one of Eagles, Port, or Swans at the G in a PF. Richmond go to the other side playing Pies or Cats at the G before backing that up with an interstate PF against the Giants or Eagles - Richmond have only won a single interstate game this year, against the Suns on Saturday.

It’s a lot harder if we lose that QF to Richmond as it would be a SF against Pies or Cats before having to go interstate against Eagles or Giants and then back it up against (likely) Richmond again.

So we have a reasonable chance at the flag if we can upset Richmond in that QF.

PS. If you don’t think Pies would lose to Port this week, then assuming we beat Swans round 23 we would still get a similar sort of ladder with a similar degree of difficulty. Same key challenge of Tigers in the QF.

if the swans can beat us by 20 Goals? cant remember the last time they kicked 20 total?

 

[cryptor]

if the swans can beat us by 20 Goals? cant remember the last time they kicked 20 total?

What?? I was talking about Hawks and Pies trying to lock down 4th.

If Pies lose to Port then we can probably afford to lose to Swans*, as we’ll likely have better percentage still.

But if Pies beat Port then we will need to beat the Swans to have a shot at 4th* as otherwise we’ll be a game behind the Pies.

The difference would be points, not percentage - which is unlikely to be a factor without a crazy result or two.

* assuming Pies beat Freo and we beat Saints.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Whoever finishes 4th though can almost look at that game as a free hit
No one will expect them to be Richmond at the MCG , all pressure will be on the Tigers plus you have the double chance

It also means that even if you win that Richmond are still in the comp, it would send them interstate for a prelim however.

 

[threesixpio]

C'mon.. yes you are..

I’m totally dreaming about it and I know I shouldn’t