Analysis The Run Home

[JT_the_Man]

I just did the ladder predictor for the rest of the season with Richmond and Port as losses.
It has us finishing 10th on percentage.

We are going to have to beat Richmond or Port. So um Port then lol.

We were always only going to be able to drop 2 games for the rest of the year before Collingwood rolled us.

Port in R23 - I can see us winning that.

 

[vast]

We were always only going to be able to drop 2 games for the rest of the year before Collingwood rolled us.

Port in R23 - I can see us winning that.

In there recent form yes but things change quickly.

 

[eth-dog]

If either Geelong or Hawthorn loses this weekend, and we beat the Hawks, we will be in the 8 next week.

The word you're looking for is "and" not "or". If Geelong win this week they go 4 points and % clear

 

[adsla69k]

 

[maskmcgee]

In the next 2 weeks Geelong should beat Brisbane and lose to Richmond.
Hawthorn should beat Fremantle and hopefully lose to us.
If we then beat St. Kilda in round 21, we will be in the 8 at the end of the round, as the loser of Geelong v. Hawthorn that week will be below us.

 

[JT_the_Man]

|| W | L | D | %
\1.| Richmond |18|4|0|142.0%
\2.| West Coast |16|6|0|121.0%
\3.| Collingwood |16|6|0|119.8%
\4.| Melbourne |14|8|0|125.0%
\5.| Geelong |14|8|0|119.7%
\6.| Port Adelaide |14|8|0|109.3%
\7.| GWS |13|8|1|113.7%
\8.| Essendon |13|9|0|108.4%
\9.|Sydney|13|9|0|108.2%
\10.|Hawthorn|12|10|0|111.4%
\11.|North Melbourne|12|10|0|109.1%
\12.|Adelaide|12|10|0|100.4%
\13.|Fremantle|8|14|0|83.4%
\14.|Western Bulldogs|7|15|0|74.8%
\15.|Brisbane Lions|5|17|0|92.2%
\16.|Gold Coast|5|17|0|66.7%
\17.|St Kilda|4|17|1|73.0%
\18.|Carlton|1|21|0|62.8%

QF1: RICHMOND v Melbourne
QF2: WEST COAST v Collingwood
EF1: Geelong v ESSENDON
EF2: PORT ADELAIDE v GWS

SF1: Melbourne v ESSENDON
SF2: COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide

PF1: Richmond v COLLINGWOOD
PF2: West Coast v ESSENDON

GF: Collingwood v ESSENDON

Anything that ends with us winning the flag works.

 

[pepsi]

Dare to dream while it's still possible. But I have us missing out on %

 

[Cold Sober]

Essendon will beat Richmond, It's Hawthorn and Saints that are more the worry. Win those 2 and we will steamroll Richmond.

 

[adsla69k]

We will be the most feared team in the finals If we win our next 4 games.

 

[maskmcgee]

These are the critical games that will affect us for the rest of the season. I've removed games that are expected to be pretty straightforward results.

Round 19
Adelaide v. Melbourne
North Melbourne v. West Coast
Round 20
Hawthorn v. Essendon
Adelaide v. Port Adelaide
Sydney v. Collingwood

Round 21
Hawthorn v. Geelong
Port Adelaide v. West Coast
GWS v. Adelaide
Melbourne v. Sydney

Round 22
Richmond v. Essendon
Collingwood v. Port Adelaide
GWS v. Sydney
West Coast v. Melbourne
Adelaide v. North Melbourne

Round 23
Port Adelaide v. Essendon
Sydney v. Hawthorn
Melbourne v. GWS

If we win all four of our games, we make finals. That is simple.

What is also simple is that if we fail to win 3 games we are done.

The best possible result, what we want to happen (with the exception of the Richmond game) is the highlighted winners. All margins were left at 20, the default, and all game not mentioned above were won by the side currently higher on the ladder.


That leaves the final ladder looking like this

5. Geelong 14 - 8, 117.2
6. Essendon 13 - 9, 104.4
7. Adelaide 13 - 9, 102.5
8. Melbourne 12 - 10, 119.9
--------------------------------
9. Hawthorn 12 - 10, 112.8
10. North Melbourne 12 - 10, 107.2
11. Port Adelaide 12 - 10, 105.9
12. Sydney 12 - 10, 105.5

If either Hawthorn or Melbourne win in round 23, but ONLY ONE of them, we would finish in either 6th or 7th, a game clear inside the top 8, and play whichever of the two won.

If BOTH Hawthorn and Melbourne won, we would be 8th, ahead of Adelaide only on percentage (who play Carlton in Round 23). Anyone who says our percentage is not relevant is wrong. It is extremely relevant.

If North Melbourne beat Adelaide in round 22, and both Hawthorn and Melbourne won in round 23, we would need to have an even higher percentage to beat them.

If Hawthorn beats Geelong in Round 21, GWS MUST beat Melbourne. If Melbourne win, we will be out of the finals.

If North beats West Coast tomorrow in Tasmania, Sydney MUST beat Hawthorn in Round 23.

 

[fishardansin]

Can Essendon go undefeated from now on? Their best is good enough. They seem to be able to reproduce it when they need to. Beating Richmond would be their opus dei this season.

 

[Halftimehero]

Can see Freo beating the Hawks tomorrow.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Swans are cooked, McVeigh and Jack are not enough. Horse complains about injuries, but they could have had those two back and we had a fully fit Daniher, we would have destroyed (assuming big target would have straightened us up) by 12+ goals.

And we are definitely capable of beating Port. Tigers? Not without a key forward.

 

[Halftimehero]

I have Sydney dropping out, they'll need to win 2 more and I cant see it.

 

[Halftimehero]

Win 3 of the last 4 and I really can't see us missing to be honest, unless Adelaide go undefeated(unlikely). Swans and Hawks to come out of the current 8, us and cats go in.

 

[maskmcgee]

Win 3 of the last 4 and I really can't see us missing to be honest, unless Adelaide go undefeated(unlikely).

Adelaide's not really relevant, and we'd rather Adelaide go undefeated than North beat them in Round 22

 

[Halftimehero]

Adelaide's not really relevant, and we'd rather Adelaide go undefeated than North beat them in Round 22

If Adelaide win their last 5 games you reckon they aren't relevant?

If they do that they'll be ahead of us and most likely be why we dont make it.

 

[maskmcgee]

If Adelaide win their last 5 games you reckon they aren't relevant?

If they do that they'll be ahead of us and most likely be why we dont make it.

I literally went over exactly why they aren't relevant about 5 posts up giving every possible outcome.

The teams that Adelaide could realistically lose to are teams that we want to lose moreso than Adelaide.

 

[Halftimehero]

I literally went over exactly why they aren't relevant about 5 posts up giving every possible outcome.

The teams that Adelaide could realistically lose to are teams that we want to lose moreso than Adelaide.

If Sydney only win one more, Hawthorn 2 more, and North dont win more than 3 then we will make it with 3 more wins UNLESS Adelaide go undefeated which I said was unlikely.

 

[fishardansin]

8 in a row and 17 is ours! How do you like them apples? Jade better be back for that.

 

[Halftimehero]

8 in a row and 17 is ours! How do you like them apples? Jade better be back for that.

I really can't see us losing a game until 2021 to be honest

 

[Mr Brown]

What are the different outcomes we need to happen to ensure we have a finals appearance?

e.g watching this Melbourne Adelaide game right now, which would we prefer win to make finals etc

 

[calyam]

Adelaide winning a close one is the better result for us. Coupled with the Hawks losing tomorrow and we'd be only percentage outside the eight.

 

[maskmcgee]

Round 19
Adelaide v. Melbourne
North Melbourne v. West Coast
Round 20
Hawthorn v. Essendon
Adelaide v. Port Adelaide
Sydney v. Collingwood

Round 21
Hawthorn v. Geelong
Port Adelaide v. West Coast
GWS v. Adelaide
Melbourne v. Sydney

Round 22
Richmond v. Essendon
Collingwood v. Port Adelaide
GWS v. Sydney
West Coast v. Melbourne
Adelaide v. North Melbourne

Round 23
Port Adelaide v. Essendon
Sydney v. Hawthorn
Melbourne v. GWS

If the teams in bold all win, we finish 6th.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Round 19
Adelaide v. Melbourne
North Melbourne v. West Coast
Round 20
Hawthorn v. Essendon
Adelaide v. Port Adelaide
Sydney v. Collingwood

Round 21
Hawthorn v. Geelong
Port Adelaide v. West Coast
GWS v. Adelaide
Melbourne v. Sydney

Round 22
Richmond v. Essendon
Collingwood v. Port Adelaide
GWS v. Sydney
West Coast v. Melbourne
Adelaide v. North Melbourne

Round 23
Port Adelaide v. Essendon
Sydney v. Hawthorn
Melbourne v. GWS

If the teams in bold all win, we finish 6th.

Hahaha

I’m yet to have a ladder predictor put us 6th, didn’t even know that was possible.