Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[LittleG]

Where it gets interesting for teams who have losses or gained players is how the squiggle rates those players individually.

For example, when Sicily and Gunston were returning from injury last year the squiggle didn’t really rate them as beneficial inclusions that would have much of an impact which I questioned at the time, and this year while it seems to rate the older players we’ve traded out it actually rates the players we were missing from the second half of 2022 due to injury higher, so it’s saying we’ll be better while most people think we’ll be worse.

Dogs lose Dunkley and Hunter but gain Lobb and Jones, is that a gain or a loss according to Squiggle?

Dogs changes:
Dunkley loss is a negative
Hunter loss is a positive (slows transition by taking a long time to find a short target)
Lobb - 2nd Ruck / FF is a positive
Jones - KPD1 is a big positive, as it moves Keath to KPD2
McLean - is a positive

Summary:
Dogs better off by a long way.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Dogs changes:
Dunkley loss is a negative
Hunter loss is a positive (slows transition by taking a long time to find a short target)
Lobb - 2nd Ruck / FF is a positive
Jones - KPD1 is a big positive, as it moves Keath to KPD2
McLean - is a positive

Summary:
Dogs better off by a long way.

We’re talking about the squiggle rating though, so it won’t see Hunter’s loss as a positive and might not rate McLean after him missing so much footy in the last couple of years.

 

[Arr0w]

The fixture which everyone acknowledges has an a effect, is factored in. It’s like a bench for each team. Carlton must have one of the easier fixtures

Fixture plays a part, but you really can't determine that till the season is over, as sides rise and fall depending on level of experience, maturity, days break and injuries, etc

 

[Tristan34]

Based on the squiggle, they rate Geelong a better than 50% chance to finish top 2?

I'd love to get even money about them to miss top 2.

Any of about 10 teams could make the top 4 in 2023, and it won't take much for any of them to miss out...

If teams can contain their KPF and KPD.. Good luck with that...

 

[Freomaniac]

Carlton up to 2nd and Freo down to 11th.

Is the Squiggle maintained by Blake Acres?

well Freo went to crap when we turfed out the Legendary zac dawson all those years ago.... so yes.

 

[Dazb86]

Where it gets interesting for teams who have losses or gained players is how the squiggle rates those players individually.

For example, when Sicily and Gunston were returning from injury last year the squiggle didn’t really rate them as beneficial inclusions that would have much of an impact which I questioned at the time, and this year while it seems to rate the older players we’ve traded out it actually rates the players we were missing from the second half of 2022 due to injury higher, so it’s saying we’ll be better while most people think we’ll be worse.

Dogs lose Dunkley and Hunter but gain Lobb and Jones, is that a gain or a loss according to Squiggle?

You'd hope it would be a gain but who knows. Dunkley is a loss. Hunter less so. Lobb and Jones both address areas of weakness

 

[Munich]

I'm happy with Squiggle. Not sure if they're correct with Rich and Syd being so high however.

 

[Millky95]

Dees had some big, big movement

Currently predicting a Melbourne vs Pies GF

 

[ferrisb]

Carlton have one of the better spines in the comp, and a very dangerous forward line overall.

Aside from Curnow and McKay, nothing about our forward line is dangerous.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Aside from Curnow and McKay, nothing about our forward line is dangerous.

McKay, Curnow, Motlop and Martin is dangerous.

 

[ferrisb]

McKay, Curnow, Motlop and Martin is dangerous.

Motlop has played 13 matches. And kicked 12 goals so far. He isn't worrying opposition coaches, yet.

Martin is dangerous in patches, but is inconsistent and often injured.

Other than that, the only dangerous forwards Carlton has had in the last 15 years have been

Eddie Betts; before he went to Adelaide
Jarrad Waite; when he played for North
Andrew Walker for a season
Levi Casboult; if you were sitting wide of the behind post
Brendan Fevola after a few beers

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Motlop has played 13 matches. And kicked 12 goals so far. He isn't worrying opposition coaches, yet.

Martin is dangerous in patches, but is inconsistent and often injured.

Other than that, the only dangerous forwards Carlton has had in the last 15 years have been

Eddie Betts; before he went to Adelaide
Jarrad Waite; when he played for North
Andrew Walker for a season
Levi Casboult; if you were sitting wide of the behind post
Brendan Fevola after a few beers

I seem to have stumbled across the most pessimistic of Carlton supporters, but there would be no other club in the league that wouldn’t take Curnow and McKay as their two key forwards.

 

[ferrisb]

There would be no other club in the league that wouldn’t take Curnow and McKay as their two key forwards.

100%. Just saying that after that the cupboard is bare.

And we suck at delivering the ball inside 50.

 

[craffles]

Insert argument about my team being rated incorrectly by an algorithm

Called it. **** you squiggle

 

[coach beard]

Early days but Ross Lyon's return to St Kilda has really made a difference to their defensive rating (and flag chances), I feel like I've gone back in time to the 2000s!

 

[Andonis1997]

I seem to have stumbled across the most pessimistic of Carlton supporters, but there would be no other club in the league that wouldn’t take Curnow and McKay as their two key forwards.

What about now?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What about now?

Still. Voss has to make it work.

 

[Munich]

Cats rising back to pole possie soon.

Squiggle shall prevail.

 

[tiger_tough]

Does squiggle just guess the ins and outs for extended squads? Eg Young in for Ryan for us on Sunday? How does it select the ins and outs?

 

[peetoo]

Cats rising back to pole possie soon.

Squiggle shall prevail.

It will when they beat a team that isn’t crappy

 

[ferrisb]

I seem to have stumbled across the most pessimistic of Carlton supporters, but there would be no other club in the league that wouldn’t take Curnow and McKay as their two key forwards.

100%. Just saying that after that the cupboard is bare.

And we suck at delivering the ball inside 50.

This is the worst kind of I told you so, but.... I told you so.

 

[00Stinger]

This is the worst kind of I told you so, but.... I told you so.

So we were Carlton wrong to get rid of Teague with such an ordinary list?

Or has the list regressed under Voss?

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This is the worst kind of I told you so, but.... I told you so.

More an indictment on the coach then the talent at his disposal, I’d say.

 

[ferrisb]

So we were Carlton wrong to get rid of Teague with such an ordinary list?

Or has the list regressed under Voss?

More an indictment on the coach then the talent at his disposal, I’d say.

For a long time, Carlton simply had a crap and/or young list. I don't think the coach(es) was necessarily the main problem.

But now we have a good list* and we are still crap.

I think something is wrong at the club.

I don't know if the players are mentally broken or there is poor culture. Or our coaching sucks. Or our footy dept sucks. Or the boardroom crap seeps through the club. It's probably some combination of the above.

Whatever the problems are, Carlton's performances seem to be perennially 'less than than the sum of our parts'.

I wish I had the answers. Actually, I wish the club had the answers.



* The list isn't perfect. We are still missing some outside run, speed and a top-flight small forward. It's also top-heavy on talent and lacking some depth. But overall it's a list that is better than our current and recent ladder positions.

 

[00Stinger]

* The list isn't perfect. We are still missing some outside run, speed and a top-flight small forward. It's also top-heavy on talent and lacking some depth. But overall it's a list that is better than our current and recent ladder positions.

I agree with this. The list isn't perfect but is any list?

This Carlton team on paper is a walk up top 8 team and good chance at the top 4. Something is wrong, I think it is the coach and his gameplan or lack there of