Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Ok ok, I fixed it.

Didn't mean to harp, sorry. I get it's easy to snipe from the sidelines.

Just imagine Tigers supporters reaction to a predicted GF in Geelong and you'll get my instinctive reaction

 

[BF Tiger]

It looks like the Tower of Power has other teams a possibility of finishing first only as a mathematical chance. Has any other team in any other season taken up so much space at the top rung? I'm guessing Geelong and Essendon would've been a chance. Fremantle, St Kilda in their hot years?

 

[Final Siren]

Didn't mean to harp, sorry. I get it's easy to snipe from the sidelines.

Just imagine Tigers supporters reaction to a predicted GF in Geelong and you'll get my instinctive reaction

No it's good, reminded me what I needed to do.

 

[Dr Tigris]

The gap between Richmond and the second-best side is now the largest Squiggle has recorded since the Hawks beat Essendon by 94 points in Round 18, 2012.

Although I like this fact. I wonder about it, as the Tiges haven't been playing all that well. Except for Adelaide, good decent games. The red hot form of the 2017 finals hasn't been there. So that might be a good thing. Plenty of room to get better. Or maybe a sign that the team will likely come back to the pack over the season.

Strange how you perception from watching games can be different to what something like the Squiggle produces.

 

[joelsyt]

Although I like this fact. I wonder about it, as the Tiges haven't been playing all that well. Except for Adelaide, good decent games. The red hot form of the 2017 finals hasn't been there. So that might be a good thing. Plenty of room to get better. Or maybe a sign that the team will likely come back to the pack over the season.

Strange how you perception from watching games can be different to what something like the Squiggle produces.

I expect we’ll probably have a few losses over the next few weeks. We haven’t been great but we are still playing with high intensity, we may be fit but I highly doubt we can keep it up every single week. I expect that once again there will only be 1 or 2 games between the top 8.

 

[HTT]

It looks like the Tower of Power has other teams a possibility of finishing first only as a mathematical chance. Has any other team in any other season taken up so much space at the top rung? I'm guessing Geelong and Essendon would've been a chance. Fremantle, St Kilda in their hot years?

Guesstimating from the tower we are about an 80% chance of finishing top according to the squiggle.
At the same time of the year in recent times, here is best chance of finishing top
2017 - ADEL 85% - finished 1st
2016 - SYD 35% - finished 1st
2015 - FREM 45% - finished 1st
2014 - SYD 40% - finished 1st
2013 - HAW 40% - finished 1st
Interesting that the squiggle has picked it every year.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Ok ok, I fixed it.

I also noticed a few days back the Melbourne - adelaide game in alic springs is down a season Perth stadium on the squiggle website

But as crows havnt played at either. Hga probably wouldn’t have any effect so I didn’t bring it up

 

[Final Siren]

Although I like this fact. I wonder about it, as the Tiges haven't been playing all that well. Except for Adelaide, good decent games. The red hot form of the 2017 finals hasn't been there. So that might be a good thing. Plenty of room to get better. Or maybe a sign that the team will likely come back to the pack over the season.

Strange how you perception from watching games can be different to what something like the Squiggle produces.

Squiggle's Richmond love this year comes down to:

1. Richmond scoring shot numbers are a LOT better than its actual scores.
   
   
2. Squiggle loves it when teams hold their opposition to low scores, which the Tigers have done (including keeping a team to the third-lowest score since 1990).
   
   
3. Richmond haven't had a bad game, unlike the other major flag challengers.

Let's look three games: R1 vs Carlton, R2 vs Adelaide, and R6 vs Collingwood. The public perception seems to be that this is two close-ish wins and one thumping. In terms of net scoring shots, though, it's two thumpings (+16 and +13 scoring shots) and one average loss (-6 scoring shots).

Richmond have generated 50% more scoring shots than their opponents so far this year but converted them at a significantly lower rate (52.0% vs opposition 57.4%). Sometimes that's explained by game style, but they aren't taking shots from more difficult positions: they've just been unusually wayward and their opposition unusually accurate. In the most extreme example, in Round 1, Carlton scored 15.5 (95) including 7 goals directly from free kicks, 5 of which were from the goal line, after 5 x 50M penalties for protected zone infringements.

Unless there's some underlying dynamic I haven't seen, we should expect Richmond's net conversion rate to revert to the mean, which means they'll produce games where their scoring shot dominance translates more directly to final scores.

All up, the Tigers have had two very comfortable wins against teams the Squiggle rates as likely finalists in Collingwood and Hawthorn, thrashed a finals hopeful in Melbourne, and delivered beltings (esp. in scoring shot terms) of poor teams in Brisbane and Carlton. The only below-average game was a loss away interstate to the Crows, and the result was close enough to not worry Squiggle, since even top teams tend to lose away interstate to other top teams. So that's a fine set of results.

Meanwhile, other flag prospects have all delivered at least one poor game. In particular, Sydney have lost at home to Port Adelaide and Adelaide, and Adelaide have lost to Essendon away and been destroyed at home by Collingwood. The Giants have been good (and look better in scoring shot terms) but are yet to deliver wins that really demonstrate dominance.

The only knock I'd put on Richmond is that their opponents have often suffered injuries during the game while the Tigers haven't. Squiggle doesn't model this, and it's possible that it's caused some flattering results.

Anyway, a lot can happen between now and the rest of the season, of course, but on the numbers right now, Richmond are a clear cut above.

 

[Final Siren]

I also noticed a few days back the Melbourne - adelaide game in alic springs is down a season Perth stadium on the squiggle website

But as crows havnt played at either. Hga probably wouldn’t have any effect so I didn’t bring it up

Ooh, this is an error on AFL Tables. I'll tell them because half of the internet uses that as a data source and will all have it wrong.

 

[iluvparis]

Geez I wish the Blues were going as bad as the Tiges!

From my viewing they are doing similar to last year - grinding teams into the dust for 2.5 quarters before completely running away with it in the last 1.5. I think their last two wins have been outstanding and they deserve all their squiggle plaudits.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Squiggle's Richmond love this year comes down to:

1. Richmond scoring shot numbers are a LOT better than its actual scores.
   
   
2. Squiggle loves it when teams hold their opposition to low scores, which the Tigers have done (including keeping a team to the third-lowest score since 1990).
   
   
3. Richmond haven't had a bad game, unlike the other major flag challengers.

Let's look three games: R1 vs Carlton, R2 vs Adelaide, and R6 vs Collingwood. The public perception seems to be that this is two close-ish wins and one thumping. In terms of net scoring shots, though, it's two thumpings (+14 and +13 scoring shots) and one average loss (-6 scoring shots).

Richmond have generated 50% more scoring shots than their opponents so far this year but converted them at a significantly lower rate (52.0% vs opposition 57.4%). Sometimes that's explained by game style, but they aren't taking shots from more difficult positions: they've just been unusually wayward and their opposition unusually accurate. In the most extreme example, in Round 1, Carlton scored 15.5 (95) including 7 goals directly from free kicks, 5 of which were from the goal line, after 5 x 50M penalties for protected zone infringements.

Unless there's some underlying dynamic I haven't seen, we should expect Richmond's net conversion rate to revert to the mean, which means they'll produce games where their scoring shot dominance translates more directly to final scores.

All up, the Tigers have had two very comfortable wins against teams the Squiggle rates as likely finalists in Collingwood and Hawthorn, thrashed a finals hopeful in Melbourne, and delivered beltings (esp. in scoring shot terms) of poor teams in Brisbane and Carlton. The only below-average game was a loss away interstate to the Crows, and the result was close enough to not worry Squiggle, since even top teams tend to lose away interstate to other top teams. So that's a fine set of results.

Meanwhile, other flag prospects have all delivered at least one poor game. In particular, Sydney have lost at home to Port Adelaide and Adelaide, and Adelaide have lost to Essendon away and been destroyed at home by Collingwood. The Giants have been good (and look better in scoring shot terms) but are yet to deliver wins that really demonstrate dominance.

The only knock I'd put on Richmond is that their opponents have often suffered injuries during the game while the Tigers haven't. Squiggle doesn't model this, and it's possible that it's caused some flattering results.

Anyway, a lot can happen between now and the rest of the season, of course, but on the numbers right now, Richmond are a clear cut above.

Thanks for the technical rationale.

It's more the feeling that they are mostly stuck in third gear, and look like super stars on the squiggle. Perhaps that is an artifact of the style. Grind, grind, grind, then break loose. But there are lot of missed opportunities and screw ups that the Tigers are doing. Whilst generally dominating. Perhaps it's just me not fully being able to accept that my team is damn good

Anyway, the scoring efficiency thing is perhaps important to my feelings. Lots of wasted shots. Hopefully that'll turn around for September.

 

[Final Siren]

Although I like this fact. I wonder about it, as the Tiges haven't been playing all that well. Except for Adelaide, good decent games. The red hot form of the 2017 finals hasn't been there. So that might be a good thing. Plenty of room to get better. Or maybe a sign that the team will likely come back to the pack over the season.

Strange how you perception from watching games can be different to what something like the Squiggle produces.

Another thing is you can't really expect anyone to regularly beat top 4 teams by 36-51 points. That would require a crazy level of dominance. No-one keeps that up for long.

It's probably more instructive to look back a year and compare, since Richmond have played 5 of the same 6 teams in the early part of both 2017 and 2018:

Opponent | 2017 Result | 2018 Result | Difference \Carlton|+43|+26|-17\Adelaide|-76|-36|+40\Collingwood|+19|+43|+24\Melbourne|+13|+46|+33\Brisbane|+52|+93|+41

That's a pretty clear step up. (And the Carlton number doesn't reflect the Tigers' +16 scoring shot differential.)

 

[MWPP]

Interesting that Hardwick rated Collingwood as “the best side (they’ve) played this year”
(Ahead of the Crows)

I’m also looking forward to seeing if Richmond start firm favourites with the bookies when they play us next week , or whether that will be a squiggle/bookie discrepancy

 

[Lions_Prid3]

Still has the wrong venue though. If the NSW sides go head to head in finals it will be at ANZ regardless of whose home ground it is.

I'm pretty sure the AFL are completely done with ANZ as a venue now, regardless of who's playing and whether or not it's a final?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I'm pretty sure the AFL are completely done with ANZ as a venue now, regardless of who's playing and whether or not it's a final?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Neither club is interested in playing home games there. The NSW government has announced it will be redeveloped as a "rectangle" only stadium. There's fairly nasty politics involved though. The treasury announced last week the stadium funding source from asset sales is not compliant with Government policy. Alliance, next to the SCG has emerged as the priority.
I'm confident the whole thing will stall, but nothing will happen this year anyway, which means it will be available.

The 2016 QF was a great spectacle with 60k for a derby final and the AFL will be keen for a repeat. Last year they put contingency plans in place to truck turf from Etthiad to reconfigure it just in case.
The Swans wont like it if it's their home final. Our supporters dislike it less. It's frankly not a great stadium but it's what we have in Sydney. Nothing surer than a derby final will be there.

 

[Snake_Baker]

This thing is silly.

 

[Chaisa]

Anyone else notice that the Squiggle positions for past years have changed from what they used to be?

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone else notice that the Squiggle positions for past years have changed from what they used to be?

Assume thats because the model has been slightly tweaked this year to take account of scoring shots as well as total scores

 

[richoatthedisco]

Thanks for the technical rationale.

It's more the feeling that they are mostly stuck in third gear, and look like super stars on the squiggle. Perhaps that is an artifact of the style. Grind, grind, grind, then break loose. But there are lot of missed opportunities and screw ups that the Tigers are doing. Whilst generally dominating. Perhaps it's just me not fully being able to accept that my team is damn good

Anyway, the scoring efficiency thing is perhaps important to my feelings. Lots of wasted shots. Hopefully that'll turn around for September.

Another thing is you can't really expect anyone to regularly beat top 4 teams by 36-51 points. That would require a crazy level of dominance. No-one keeps that up for long.

It's probably more instructive to look back a year and compare, since Richmond have played 5 of the same 6 teams in the early part of both 2017 and 2018:

Opponent | 2017 Result | 2018 Result | Difference \Carlton|+43|+26|-17\Adelaide|-76|-36|+40\Collingwood|+19|+43|+24\Melbourne|+13|+46|+33\Brisbane|+52|+93|+41

That's a pretty clear step up. (And the Carlton number doesn't reflect the Tigers' +16 scoring shot differential.)

There is no doubt in my mind that Richmond is a better side than last year, but also that we are not yet firing on all cylinders (Dusty is not at peak fitness, for a start). Unless we cop injuries to key players, I expect us to play better football in the second half of the year.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

There is no doubt in my mind that Richmond is a better side than last year, but also that we are not yet firing on all cylinders (Dusty is not at peak fitness, for a start). Unless we cop injuries to key players, I expect us to play better football in the second half of the year.

That's true for every team though. There is almost never a situation where a team has everyone available and playing well at the same time.

In Richmond's case, you currently have the smallest injury list in the comp, with Daniel Rioli the only player out (and Ben Griffiths retired). Every other team in the comp has 4-10 players injured. So Richmond's situation, from a comparative perspective, can only get worse from here.

 

[Final Siren]

Assume thats because the model has been slightly tweaked this year to take account of scoring shots as well as total scores

Yes, I need to go back and regenerate those premiership cup positions under the new model.

 

[cryptor]

2003 is the last time that the club on top of the ladder at the end of round 6 ended up being the eventual premier for that season.

That doesn't mean Richmond won't win the flag again this year. It just means that there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before we see who wins the flag this year.

 

[richoatthedisco]

That's true for every team though. There is almost never a situation where a team has everyone available and playing well at the same time.

In Richmond's case, you currently have the smallest injury list in the comp, with Daniel Rioli the only player out (and Ben Griffiths retired). Every other team in the comp has 4-10 players injured. So Richmond's situation, from a comparative perspective, can only get worse from here.

You wish.

Richmond's low injury rate is not an accident. Our conditioning and rehab staff do an amazing job. Vlastuin missed 7 games with a busted shoulder last year, Broad missed 12. Edwards missed 6 with a fractured hip. All came back fitter and stronger and were awesome in September.

And we can get better, because our players are improving. Butler, Broad and Castagna were all practically first year players last year. Caddy and Prestia were not fully fit for most of 2017. Vlastuin, Lambert, Houli and Edwards have gone to another level. Conca is finally getting an injury-free run at it (touch wood). Our reserves are the best team in the VFL.

If one or two of our top four goes down we will struggle, but that's true for every club. Anyone else we can cover, except perhaps Nankervis.

We're getting better before we get worse, sorry to say.

 

[richoatthedisco]

2003 is the last time that the club on top of the ladder at the end of round 6 ended up being the eventual premier for that season.

That doesn't mean Richmond won't win the flag again this year. It just means that there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before we see who wins the flag this year.

It actually doesn't mean anything.

 

[Dr Tigris]

2003 is the last time that the club on top of the ladder at the end of round 6 ended up being the eventual premier for that season.

That doesn't mean Richmond won't win the flag again this year. It just means that there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before we see who wins the flag this year.

Very cool stat. Still, hope this an off year for it.