Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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harrythetiger said:
Collingwood 2011 was a fair way out there from memory. And Lyon’s saints would’ve been in that region 09-10.
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Yep, peak Collingwood was Round 20, 2011, when they visited Port and towelled them up 3.3 (21) to 23.21 (159).

They held a bunch of sides to ridiculously low scores that year.

t4bcDn2.png


The Tigers are the best team in the league right now, but still nowhere near the lofty heights the Pies and Cats reached that year.

vp32bYj.png
 
Dirty Bird said:
Final Siren

Just out of curiosity
Is there a formula you’ve got in there to take into account when the afl changed it from 25 + timeon to 20 + timeon in the 90s
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No, Squiggle is built for modern AFL. You can look at squiggles of earlier times to see how they compare, but there's no attempt to adjust for lower average scoring / bog-like grounds / different finals systems / etc.
 
Fair enough
I was just thinking of the earl 90s late 80s high scoring games

Can someone’s tell Mel which year this rule changed?
I want to compare those 2 squiggles.
 

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Sydney +10 v Adelaide (bah! right margin, wrong result)
St Kilda v GWS +29
Carlton v West Coast +24
Port Adelaide +1 v Geelong
Fremantle +16 v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne v Hawthorn +16
Brisbane +1 v Gold Coast
Melbourne v Richmond +27
Collingwood +17 v Essendon

4.5/9.

1. Richmond 31.7
2. Geelong 16.0 (+5)
3. Collingwood 15.1 (+3)
4. Hawthorn 15.0 (-2)
5. Adelaide 14.6
6. North Melbourne 10.7 (+4)
7. GWS 10.6 (-4)
8. West Coast 9.1
9. Sydney 6.9 (-4)
10. Port Adelaide -0.3 (-1)
11. Fremantle -0.9 (+1)
12. Melbourne -1.0 (-1)
13. Essendon -10.6
14. St Kilda -13.0 (+3)
15. Gold Coast -14.0 (+1)
16. Brisbane -17.3 (-1)
17. Carlton -19.3 (+1)
18. Western Bulldogs -19.5 (-4)

The algorithm really rates the results from Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide and North Melbourne this weekend.

Bulldogs v Carlton +1
Geelong +14 v Sydney
North Melbourne +5 v Port Adelaide
GWS +40 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +28 v St Kilda
Adelaide +39 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Melbourne +10
Collingwood v Richmond +17
Fremantle v West Coast +10

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.5
2. Hawthorn 14.9
3. Collingwood 14.2 (+2)
4. Adelaide 13.93 (+3)
5. Geelong 13.90 (+4)
6. GWS 13.5 (-3)
7. North Melbourne 13.4 (+4)
8. West Coast 13.3 (-2)
9. Sydney 12.1 (-5)
10. Port Adelaide 11.1 (-2)
11. Fremantle 10.9 (+1)
12. Melbourne 10.8 (-2)
13. Gold Coast 8.4 (+2)
14. Essendon 7.6 (-1)
15. St Kilda 6.7 (+2)
16. Western Bulldogs 5.8 (-2)
17. Carlton 5.2 (+1)
18. Brisbane 4.9 (-2)

A big drop for Sydney, who might not make the finals unless their form turns, or one of the flying teams above them falls. At the moment, only Richmond can confidently say that they're headed for the top four.
 
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Final Siren said:
How are your tips etc going Hobbes? Not sure which variation you're using this year. At least some of them are on 30 by my count, which is very good.
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My count is 26 (and I count +0.5 for the drawn match). Exactly the same model as last year - counting null rounds for byes (and rounds of the finals that the team didn't play). I expect accuracy will improve a little when I'm working with a fuller data set for each team.
 
Hobbes said:
My count is 26 (and I count +0.5 for the drawn match). Exactly the same model as last year - counting null rounds for byes (and rounds of the finals that the team didn't play). I expect accuracy will improve a little when I'm working with a fuller data set for each team.
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Hmm, every Hobbes variation I have scored 7/9 in Round 1, not 6/9 as you reported. Not sure if the problem is at my end or you've introduced a transcribing error in your spreadsheet.

E.g. here is a single-pass Hobbes for R1, 2018:
Code: 
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Gold Coast, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -72.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -82.5, HHOMEADV -10, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -39.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -33, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -54.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN -54, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -10.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN -23, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -39.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -33, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -46.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -52, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -21.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -15, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -49.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -58.5, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast  13.00 [2017 Round 15] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 19, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -25.00 [2017 Round 14] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -31, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast -17.00 [2017 Round 13] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN -11, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast  22.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN 16, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Gold Coast  -5.50 [2017 Round 11] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 7.5, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Geelong, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Geelong -49.50 [2017 Preliminary Final] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -55.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  49.50 [2017 Semi Final] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 54.5, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong -50.50 [2017 Qualifying Final] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -50.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  39.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 44, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  11.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 11.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  14.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN 14, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong -51.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -46, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  57.50 [2017 Round 19] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 57.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong -15.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -21, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong   7.50 [2017 Round 17] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN 7.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  73.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 67.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong   5.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Geelong  -2.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 7, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(North Melbourne, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne  56.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 50.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -49.00 [2017 Round 22] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -49, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -27.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -27, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -52.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -52, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne   8.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 8, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -27.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -27, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -54.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -60, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -17.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN -8, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -13.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -19, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne  -6.50 [2017 Round 14] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -6.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -17.00 [2017 Round 13] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -17, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne -35.00 [2017 Round 11] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -35, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] North Melbourne  17.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 17, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Melbourne, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Melbourne -16.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -16, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne   7.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 13, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  24.00 [2017 Round 21] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 24, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne -30.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -35, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  -8.00 [2017 Round 19] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -8, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  17.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 23, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne -52.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -46, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  10.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 10, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne -40.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -35, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  16.50 [2017 Round 14] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 7.5, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  53.50 [2017 Round 13] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 53.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne   8.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 8, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Melbourne  29.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 35, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(West Coast, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] West Coast -46.50 [2017 Semi Final] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -58.5, HHOMEADV -12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  20.00 [2017 Elimination Final] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 7, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  16.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 29, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  -9.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -21, HHOMEADV -12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast   8.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 17, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  -1.00 [2017 Round 20] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -10, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  46.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 59, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  -1.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -10, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  30.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 30, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast -45.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -32, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast  18.50 [2017 Round 15] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 9.5, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast -16.50 [2017 Round 14] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -7.5, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] West Coast   4.00 [2017 Round 13] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 13, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Western Bulldogs, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -10.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -10.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -23.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -17, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -53.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -48, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs  20.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 14, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs  30.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN 30, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs  46.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 52, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs  20.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 20, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -48.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -54.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -18.50 [2017 Round 15] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -9.5, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs   6.50 [2017 Round 14] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 6.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -53.50 [2017 Round 13] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -53.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs -41.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -46, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Western Bulldogs  40.00 [2017 Round 10] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 40, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Collingwood, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  16.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 16, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood -11.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -11.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood -21.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -27, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  52.00 [2017 Round 20] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 52, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  -6.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood   1.00 [2017 Round 18] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 10, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  21.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 15, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood -37.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -37, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood -24.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -24, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood -37.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -31, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  -8.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -8, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  29.00 [2017 Round 11] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 20, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Collingwood  39.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 45, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Essendon, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Essendon -52.50 [2017 Elimination Final] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -57.5, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon   6.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 15, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  39.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 33, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon -49.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -43, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  10.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 10, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon -30.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -30, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  27.00 [2017 Round 18] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 27, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  55.50 [2017 Round 17] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 55.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  37.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 37, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon -16.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN -10, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  -1.50 [2017 Round 14] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -6.5, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon  54.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 60, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Essendon -11.00 [2017 Round 11] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -16, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Greater Western Sydney, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney -31.00 [2017 Preliminary Final] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -36, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney  46.50 [2017 Semi Final] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 58.5, HHOMEADV 12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney -27.00 [2017 Qualifying Final] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -36, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney -39.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -44, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney   9.00 [2017 Round 22] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 21, HHOMEADV 12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney  53.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 48, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney  30.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 35, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney   0.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 12, HHOMEADV 12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney -14.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -19, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney -13.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -13, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney   5.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney  -5.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Greater Western Sydney  64.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 55, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Brisbane Lions, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -56.50 [2017 Round 23] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -50.5, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions  -7.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -13, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions  54.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 54, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -20.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -14, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -46.00 [2017 Round 19] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -59, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions  24.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 30, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -25.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -31, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -73.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -67.5, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions  16.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN 10, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -64.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -55, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -30.00 [2017 Round 13] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -40, HHOMEADV -10, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions  40.50 [2017 Round 12] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 53.5, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Brisbane Lions -39.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -45, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Port Adelaide, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide -20.00 [2017 Elimination Final] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -7, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  72.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 82.5, HHOMEADV 10, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  23.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 17, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  21.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 27, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide -67.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -67, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide   1.00 [2017 Round 19] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 7, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide -17.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -23, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  54.00 [2017 Round 17] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 60, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  45.00 [2017 Round 16] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 32, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide -19.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -13, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  37.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 31, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide  30.00 [2017 Round 13] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 40, HHOMEADV 10, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Port Adelaide -54.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -60, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Hawthorn, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  10.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 10.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  -9.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN -9.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  27.00 [2017 Round 21] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 27, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn -29.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -29, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn   4.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 9, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  60.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 51, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  -7.50 [2017 Round 17] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -7.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  -5.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  24.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 24, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  20.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 14, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn -22.00 [2017 Round 12] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -16, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn -44.50 [2017 Round 11] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -50.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Hawthorn  14.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 9, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(St Kilda, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -41.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -41, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  49.00 [2017 Round 22] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 49, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -24.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -24, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda   1.00 [2017 Round 20] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 10, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  -1.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -7, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -37.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -42, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -55.50 [2017 Round 17] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -55.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  58.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN 58.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  19.50 [2017 Round 15] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 10.5, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  25.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 31, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda  17.00 [2017 Round 13] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 17, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -47.50 [2017 Round 12] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -53.5, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] St Kilda -40.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -40, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Richmond, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Richmond  48.00 [2017 Grand Final] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 48, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  31.00 [2017 Preliminary Final] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 36, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  50.50 [2017 Qualifying Final] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 50.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  41.00 [2017 Round 23] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 41, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  86.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 77, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond -14.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -14, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  29.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN 29, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  39.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 33, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  14.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 19, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  25.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN 31, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond -58.50 [2017 Round 16] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -58.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  19.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 13, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Richmond  26.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 26, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Fremantle, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Fremantle  -6.00 [2017 Round 23] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -15, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -86.00 [2017 Round 22] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -77, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -65.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -77, HHOMEADV -12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle  10.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 23, HHOMEADV 13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle   0.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -12, HHOMEADV -12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -60.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -51, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -30.00 [2017 Round 17] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -30, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle  17.00 [2017 Round 16] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 8, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -19.50 [2017 Round 15] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN -10.5, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle   2.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -7, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -40.50 [2017 Round 12] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN -53.5, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -29.00 [2017 Round 11] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN -20, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Fremantle -62.00 [2017 Round 10] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -75, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Adelaide, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Adelaide -48.00 [2017 Grand Final] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -48, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  49.50 [2017 Preliminary Final] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 55.5, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  27.00 [2017 Qualifying Final] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 36, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide -16.00 [2017 Round 23] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -29, HHOMEADV -13, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide -16.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -7.5, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  49.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN 43, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  67.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Port Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 67, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide   6.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Collingwood : HOBBESMARGIN 0, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  15.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 21, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  52.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 46, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  48.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN 54.5, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide  18.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 12, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Adelaide -20.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -14, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Sydney, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Sydney -49.50 [2017 Semi Final] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -54.5, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  52.50 [2017 Elimination Final] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN 57.5, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  60.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Carlton : HOBBESMARGIN 65.5, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  16.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN 7.5, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  65.00 [2017 Round 21] vs Fremantle : HOBBESMARGIN 77, HHOMEADV 12, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  51.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN 46, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  -4.00 [2017 Round 19] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN -9, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  37.00 [2017 Round 18] vs St Kilda : HOBBESMARGIN 42, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  13.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 13, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  49.50 [2017 Round 16] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 58.5, HHOMEADV 9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  40.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN 35, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney   1.50 [2017 Round 14] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN 6.5, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Sydney  15.50 [2017 Round 13] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN 10.5, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes] find_last_n_matches(Carlton, 13, 2018, 1, 2)
[hobbes-0] Carlton -60.50 [2017 Round 23] vs Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN -65.5, HHOMEADV -5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton   9.50 [2017 Round 22] vs Hawthorn : HOBBESMARGIN 9.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton  -8.00 [2017 Round 21] vs West Coast : HOBBESMARGIN -17, HHOMEADV -9, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -10.00 [2017 Round 20] vs Essendon : HOBBESMARGIN -10, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -57.50 [2017 Round 19] vs Geelong : HOBBESMARGIN -57.5, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -24.00 [2017 Round 18] vs Brisbane Lions : HOBBESMARGIN -30, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -20.00 [2017 Round 17] vs Western Bulldogs : HOBBESMARGIN -20, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -10.00 [2017 Round 16] vs Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -10, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -18.00 [2017 Round 15] vs Adelaide : HOBBESMARGIN -12, HHOMEADV 6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -26.00 [2017 Round 14] vs Richmond : HOBBESMARGIN -26, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton  17.00 [2017 Round 13] vs Gold Coast : HOBBESMARGIN 11, HHOMEADV -6, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton   1.50 [2017 Round 12] vs Greater Western Sydney : HOBBESMARGIN 6.5, HHOMEADV 5, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] Carlton -17.00 [2017 Round 10] vs North Melbourne : HOBBESMARGIN -17, HHOMEADV 0, HOPPO 0
[hobbes-0] After pass 0, team ratings as at 2018 Round 1:
   12.1639  Adelaide
  -15.5378  Brisbane Lions
  -21.9664  Carlton
    1.6303  Collingwood
   -3.5420  Essendon
  -30.5630  Fremantle
    0.3151  Geelong
  -38.6261  Gold Coast
    0.5378  Greater Western Sydney
    5.7311  Hawthorn
   -3.7017  Melbourne
  -15.2521  North Melbourne
   10.3109  Port Adelaide
   36.2731  Richmond
   -5.6261  St Kilda
   25.5084  Sydney
    0.0378  West Coast
   -6.4874  Western Bulldogs

Richmond (121) defeated Carlton (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 26)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 32.24 (tip +58.2 vs actual +26)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Richmond by 58.2) +/- 32.2
Essendon (99) defeated Adelaide (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 21.71 (tip -9.7 vs actual +12)
[hobbes-0] ---WRONG--- (Adelaide by 9.7) +/- 21.7
St Kilda (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 25)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE  9.09 (tip +15.9 vs actual +25)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (St Kilda by 15.9) +/- 9.1
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Fremantle (60) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE  3.87 (tip +53.9 vs actual +50)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Port Adelaide by 53.9) +/- 3.9
Gold Coast (55) defeated North Melbourne (39) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 16)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 33.37 (tip -17.4 vs actual +16)
[hobbes-0] ---WRONG--- (North Melbourne by 17.4) +/- 33.4
Hawthorn (101) defeated Collingwood (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 34)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 29.90 (tip +4.1 vs actual +34)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Hawthorn by 4.1) +/- 29.9
Greater Western Sydney (133) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 82)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 69.97 (tip +12.0 vs actual +82)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Greater Western Sydney by 12.0) +/- 70.0
Melbourne (94) lost to Geelong (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE  1.02 (tip -4.0 vs actual -3)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Geelong by 4.0) +/- 1.0
West Coast (86) lost to Sydney (115) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 29)
[hobbes-0] Executing [hobbes]  (0)
[hobbes-0] MAE 15.53 (tip -13.5 vs actual -29)
[hobbes-0] +++RIGHT+++ (Sydney by 13.5) +/- 15.5
Stopping before R2 2018.
                                                                               MAE         MedAE          Bits        ComMAE
  1. HOBBES-0                                  :   7 -   2  77.78%  7.00/9   24.08 (  1)*  21.71 (  1)*   1.67 (  1)*   0.00 (  0) 
     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Done.
 
I'm not ruling out a transcribing error, or you might not be including the null round modification I introduced last year, which reduces the impact of last year's results (except for finalists). It also produces a substantial positive skew in the results (because all of the matches from the previous four rounds was against a good opponent) whereas my old structure produced a substantial negative skew (because the last match for 7/8 finalists was a loss).
 
Hobbes said:
I'm not ruling out a transcribing error, or you might not be including the null round modification I introduced last year, which reduces the impact of last year's results (except for finalists). It also produces a substantial positive skew in the results (because all of the matches from the previous four rounds was against a good opponent) whereas my old structure produced a substantial negative skew (because the last match for 7/8 finalists was a loss).
Click to expand...
Aha, that's probably it.

It hasn't been very kind to you, then! The old 2-pass algorithm is on 30 tips (counting the draw as correct) with 31.3 MAE.
 

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Final Siren said:
I

Almost every week, they put out the youngest side in the competition, usually far younger than supposedly rebuilding sides like Fremantle (25y 44d last round), Gold Coast (24y 269d), and North Melbourne (25y 124d). Only Carlton are close: 24y 56d..
Click to expand...

There's no `supposedly` about it. All 3 teams are clearly rebuilding.
 
Bulldogs v Carlton +1
Geelong +14 v Sydney
North Melbourne +5 v Port Adelaide
GWS +40 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +28 v St Kilda
Adelaide +39 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Melbourne +10
Collingwood v Richmond +17
Fremantle v West Coast +10

6/9.

1. Richmond 35.2
2. Adelaide 15.4 (+3)
3. Hawthorn 15.3 (+1)
4. Geelong 13.5 (-2)
5. Sydney 11.2 (+4)
6. Collingwood 10.7 (-3)
7. GWS 10.5
8. West Coast 9.5
9. Port Adelaide 6.3 (+1)
10. North Melbourne 3.8 (-4)
11. Melbourne 2.4 (+1)
12. Fremantle -0.4 (-1)
13. Essendon -13.8
14. Gold Coast -15.9 (+1)
15. St Kilda -16 (-1)
16. Brisbane -16.4
17. Western Bulldogs -16.6 (+1)
18. Carlton -24.1 (-1)

The Bottom 6 seems to have made itself known. Richmond has cleared out some more, but it feels like from 2-12 anything can happen.

Geelong +8 v GWS
Western Bulldogs +5 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Hawthorn +29
West Coast +16 v Port Adelaide
Sydney +12 v North Melbourne
Adelaide +45 v Carlton
Richmond +45 v Fremantle
St Kilda v Melbourne +18
Brisbane v Collingwood +21

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 18.6
2. Hawthorn 15.1
3. Adelaide 14.1 (+1)
4. Geelong 13.9 (+1)
5. West Coast 13.67 (+3)
6. Sydney 13.64 (+3)
7. GWS 13.57 (-1)
8. Collingwood 13.1 (-5)
9. Port Adelaide 12.8 (+1)
10. Melbourne 11.7 (+2)
11. North Melbourne 11.6 (-4)
12. Fremantle 10.8 (-1)
13. Gold Coast 8.0
14. Essendon 6.7
15. St Kilda 5.9
16. Western Bulldogs 5.8
17. Brisbane 5.2 (+1)
18. Carlton 3.9 (-1)
 
Final Siren said:
The gap between Richmond and the second-best side is now the largest Squiggle has recorded since the Hawks beat Essendon by 94 points in Round 18, 2012.
Click to expand...

So you are suggesting a red hot Richmond will lose a GF to a less fancied opponent from Sydney?
 

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