Hawthorn are the one true underdog team in the AFL.
Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Hawthorn are the one true underdog team in the AFL.
Don't mind me, I'm just admiring the fact that we can get upset in a Grand Final. For too long it was impossible to have an 'upset' win over us, at all
How's this for a finals series!
3 out of 4 finals in week 1 decided by 3 points or less.
Both finals in week 2 decided by 10 points or less.
A 7 point thriller in one of the prelims.
Richmond meet Hawthorn in finals for the first time ever in the Grand Final.
Outside of any game involving Richmond this would be a very exciting finals series for anyone to watch. Of course, I'm sure Tiger fans would enjoy the whole thing very much!
View attachment 493144
We’re this to happen I’d be staggered if eagles and crows got closer to Richmond than Hawthorn would at the mcg
I suppose it’s because squiggle predictor is liking the hawks but flagpole has them a poor 9th
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,505
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #304
After another big performance in both defensive & scoring shot terms, the gap between 1st (Richmond) and 2nd (Geelong) has gone past Hawks 2012 and Collingwood 2011 and is now the biggest lead a team has held on Squiggle since Geelong 2008.
As those names suggest, that's no guarantee of a flag, but it's a really unusual degree of dominance, albeit at an early point in the season.
As those names suggest, that's no guarantee of a flag, but it's a really unusual degree of dominance, albeit at an early point in the season.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Probably not surprising with the Tiges probably the only team this year yet to put in an inexplicable shit one
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,505
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #306
Yep, a big part of it is the evenness of the rest of the comp.
The teams that have been surprisingly good so far this year all started back in the pack (e.g. Hawks, Pies, Eagles, Roos), while the teams that started in good positions (e.g. Crows, Giants, Swans, Power) haven't been consistently good.
Kingy suggested if you get too far in front every other team puts more time into possibly beating you. Increasing the chances of that happening
West Coasts game v a depleted GWS away is pivotal i think to their season.
Win that and with their outstanding home record with i think only one remaining game at the MCG, all points to Eagles top 4
Win that and with their outstanding home record with i think only one remaining game at the MCG, all points to Eagles top 4
liam123
Club Legend
- Sep 29, 2014
- 2,149
- 3,119
- AFL Club
- West Coast
AFL doing their best to prevent the win
Bit of an indictment on the draw but so far do I read it right that Tigers have (based on last years ladder) played only one finals side (and lost) with average position played being 12th. If you based it on current ladder then it would be one two goal win and a loss and average position played 10th.
Certainly cruising but presumably there’s a tougher period coming in the middle of the year.
Certainly cruising but presumably there’s a tougher period coming in the middle of the year.
joelsyt
Brownlow Medallist
- Mar 11, 2016
- 22,680
- 58,988
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Tough period starts soon actually. We have north at Etihad this week, which is tough given our history with north. Next week we have west coast in Perth, which is always a tough road trip. We have st kilda and Essendon at the G after WCE but after that I think we play about 6 or 7 top 8 teams from last year in a matter of about 8 weeks? If I remember our fixture correctly.
BEaston
Hungry
- Oct 9, 2013
- 12,446
- 17,457
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Does squig still rate attack higher than defence? Seems to go against what the coaches are trying to achieve with their gameplans and certainly against the last two premiers.
This snippet from an article quoting Paul Roos was interesting as which seemed to go against the attack > defence ethos of squiq:
This snippet from an article quoting Paul Roos was interesting as which seemed to go against the attack > defence ethos of squiq:
Paul Roos said he began his coaching career at Sydney in 2003 with a mantra. “We looked at the indicators from the premiership teams in the 10 years prior to me taking over as coach,” he said in The Rise Of The Swans. “Forget inside-50s, forget contested footy, the common factor was defence. It’s the number one thing, not only in Australian sport either.”
Yeah not a criticism of Richmond - you can only beat the teams of front of you which the Tigers have done reasonably comprehensively - just one of many oddities of the draw it seems.
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
Norm Smith Medallist
- Oct 26, 2012
- 8,528
- 12,477
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Considering you are premiers and play just one top 8 side in the first 10 weeks, you'd want to hope that you play more top 8 teams after that!
Correct
R12 vs Port AO
R13 vs Geel MCG
R15 vs Syd ES
R16 vs Adel MCG
R17 vs Gws SPO
R18 vs Stk ES
R19 vs Coll MCG
R20 vs Geel MCG
joelsyt
Brownlow Medallist
- Mar 11, 2016
- 22,680
- 58,988
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Wow except for st kilda what an absolute shit truck of an 8 week period. :’(
There’s our test.
Hopefully we can win a few of those.
Thats almost geelongs draw mirrored start of the year:
R1 Melbourne
R2 Hawthorn
R3 West Coast (Perth)
R4 St Kilda
R5 Port (Adel)
R6 Sydney
R7 GWS
All teams bar Saints finals shows
joelsyt
Brownlow Medallist
- Mar 11, 2016
- 22,680
- 58,988
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Everyone’s got to come up against those teams unfortunately. But man does it suck when they’re all grouped together.
evo
Let's hit the f*ken road!
Hopefully we haven't shot our load too early.
DrMike
No one likes Wang
- May 13, 2012
- 25,033
- 56,910
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Looks great to me
Don't have to play the reigning premiers or the team currently on top of the ladder
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 25,196
- 66,794
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
That's an interesting point. It sounds logical and seems to be supported in recent years by the Squiggle. (ie. Geelong'08, Collingwood'11, and Hawthorn'12)
In those 3 years though there was a pretty clear challenger by the half way point of the season. Hawthorn'08, Geelong'11, and Sydney'12. We've still got plenty of time in this season for the challenger to emerge, but at this point I don't think there's a clear contender yet. Arguments could be made for about half the competition at this point. Multiple teams have shown that their best footy is probably good enough to beat Richmond, but I don't think anyone has shown that they can deliver that level consistently.
We might not even have that contender this year. We may in fact just be looking at another Geelong'07. If so, let's just spare a thought for the team that might enter the record books for all the wrong reasons...
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,505
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #323
It's true, but I always dislike metrics like that.
Most obviously, last year's ladder doesn't reflect this year's form (e.g. Hawthorn & Collingwood), while this year's ladder is so young that it's still influenced by fixture bias.
More generally, ladder position is an ordinal score, which contains less information than a regular number. You know GWS are 5th and Port are 11th, but that doesn't tell you much about how they differ in form (they both have 4 wins).
So I'm always a bit suspect of stats like "performance against top 8-oppo vs bottom-8 oppo," since to get there you have to first throw away a lot of information. There are times when the distinction of being in the top 8 really matters, but more often it doesn't -- the performance gap between 8th and 9th is almost always small -- and is used to group teams in an arbitrary way that ignores the often substantial differences between them.
DrMike
No one likes Wang
- May 13, 2012
- 25,033
- 56,910
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Wow you guys got screwed
Similar threads
