Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Dr Tigris]

There is no doubt in my mind that Richmond is a better side than last year, but also that we are not yet firing on all cylinders (Dusty is not at peak fitness, for a start). Unless we cop injuries to key players, I expect us to play better football in the second half of the year.

My point and hope.

 

[HTT]

You wish.

Richmond's low injury rate is not an accident. Our conditioning and rehab staff do an amazing job. Vlastuin missed 7 games with a busted shoulder last year, Broad missed 12. Edwards missed 6 with a fractured hip. All came back fitter and stronger and were awesome in September.

And we can get better, because our players are improving. Butler, Broad and Castagna were all practically first year players last year. Caddy and Prestia were not fully fit for most of 2017. Vlastuin, Lambert, Houli and Edwards have gone to another level. Conca is finally getting an injury-free run at it (touch wood). Our reserves are the best team in the VFL.

If one or two of our top four goes down we will struggle, but that's true for every club. Anyone else we can cover, except perhaps Nankervis.

We're getting better before we get worse, sorry to say.

It's a great myth, the No Injuries = Luck line. Impact injuries? Sure, there's an fair amount of luck. But soft tissue injuries have a hell of a lot to do with conditioning. Richmond has been incredibly careful with sore players over the last year and a bit, resting them for a week every now and again, making sure they're as close to 100% as possible before coming into the side. The result is that by the end of last year, we had almost no significant injuries.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

You wish.

Richmond's low injury rate is not an accident. Our conditioning and rehab staff do an amazing job. Vlastuin missed 7 games with a busted shoulder last year, Broad missed 12. Edwards missed 6 with a fractured hip. All came back fitter and stronger and were awesome in September.

And we can get better, because our players are improving. Butler, Broad and Castagna were all practically first year players last year. Caddy and Prestia were not fully fit for most of 2017. Vlastuin, Lambert, Houli and Edwards have gone to another level. Conca is finally getting an injury-free run at it (touch wood). Our reserves are the best team in the VFL.

If one or two of our top four goes down we will struggle, but that's true for every club. Anyone else we can cover, except perhaps Nankervis.

We're getting better before we get worse, sorry to say.

Everyone's conditioning and rehab staff are touted as fantastic. Every year players are as fit as they've ever been. The only time you hear any different is when a player or coach goes to a new club and, at some later point, it comes out at how surprised he is with the fitness levels.

As for players improving, once again, that's nothing new. I'm not suggesting that Richmond's players won't improve.

There are always players at every club that play better than they did the previous year, mostly because they have another year's experience behind them. If clubs don't improve, they go backwards pretty quickly. Improvement relative to other teams is the only thing that matters though.

I'm also not surprised your reserves are the best team in the VFL. You have 1 injured player, so most of your VFL team is made up of your AFL-listed players. They will always perform better than a team half-filled with top-up players.

 

[richoatthedisco]

It's a great myth, the No Injuries = Luck line. Impact injuries? Sure, there's an fair amount of luck. But soft tissue injuries have a hell of a lot to do with conditioning. Richmond has been incredibly careful with sore players over the last year and a bit, resting them for a week every now and again, making sure they're as close to 100% as possible before coming into the side. The result is that by the end of last year, we had almost no significant injuries.

Spot on.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Everyone's conditioning and rehab staff are touted as fantastic. Every year players are as fit as they've ever been. The only time you hear any different is when a player or coach goes to a new club and, at some later point, it comes out at how surprised he is with the fitness levels.

As for players improving, once again, that's nothing new. I'm not suggesting that Richmond's players won't improve.

There are always players at every club that play better than they did the previous year, mostly because they have another year's experience behind them. If clubs don't improve, they go backwards pretty quickly. Improvement relative to other teams is the only thing that matters though.

I'm also not surprised your reserves are the best team in the VFL. You have 1 injured player, so most of your VFL team is made up of your AFL-listed players. They will always perform better than a team half-filled with top-up players.

Ok mate. Talk again in September.

 

[HTT]

Everyone's conditioning and rehab staff are touted as fantastic. Every year players are as fit as they've ever been. The only time you hear any different is when a player or coach goes to a new club and, at some later point, it comes out at how surprised he is with the fitness levels.

As for players improving, once again, that's nothing new. I'm not suggesting that Richmond's players won't improve.

There are always players at every club that play better than they did the previous year, mostly because they have another year's experience behind them. If clubs don't improve, they go backwards pretty quickly. Improvement relative to other teams is the only thing that matters though.

I'm also not surprised your reserves are the best team in the VFL. You have 1 injured player, so most of your VFL team is made up of your AFL-listed players. They will always perform better than a team half-filled with top-up players.

Do you think Adelaide's 8 current soft tissue injuries are completely to do with bad luck, and nothing to do with player management?

 

[lamby]

Do you think Adelaide's 8 current soft tissue injuries are completely to do with bad luck, and nothing to do with player management?

Well yes, mainly. It is pretty much the same system for the last couple of years where we had very low injury rates. Crows supporters were saying the same thing as Richmond supporters are now ‘our boys are fitter and physios better’. But it is just luck and the laws of averages have caught up with us this year - just like they will to Richmond (hopefully near the end of the minor round).

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Do you think Adelaide's 8 current soft tissue injuries are completely to do with bad luck, and nothing to do with player management?

Part of it is luck. Part of it is likely pushing players slightly too far until something goes snap.

From the fitness staff's perspective, they are trying to push the boundaries as far as possible, without stepping over them. That's hard when it is such an inexact science (i.e. some players bodies can cope with more, where the boundaries are will move as players bodies improve, etc.).

If they don't keep pushing the boundaries then the team may lose games due to other teams being fitter than they are. If they push it to far, you end up breaking a lot of the players (a la Adelaide).

 

[iluvparis]

2003 is the last time that the club on top of the ladder at the end of round 6 ended up being the eventual premier for that season.

That doesn't mean Richmond won't win the flag again this year. It just means that there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before we see who wins the flag this year.

How about the squiggle leader at Rd 6? By my estimate you only have to go back to the Bulldogs in 2016

 

[iluvparis]

You wish.

Richmond's low injury rate is not an accident. Our conditioning and rehab staff do an amazing job. Vlastuin missed 7 games with a busted shoulder last year, Broad missed 12. Edwards missed 6 with a fractured hip. All came back fitter and stronger and were awesome in September.

And we can get better, because our players are improving. Butler, Broad and Castagna were all practically first year players last year. Caddy and Prestia were not fully fit for most of 2017. Vlastuin, Lambert, Houli and Edwards have gone to another level. Conca is finally getting an injury-free run at it (touch wood). Our reserves are the best team in the VFL.

If one or two of our top four goes down we will struggle, but that's true for every club. Anyone else we can cover, except perhaps Nankervis.

We're getting better before we get worse, sorry to say.

Even for a club on the top of its game this seems like some solid kool-aid drinking

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Ok mate. Talk again in September.

Yep, ultimately it's R6 and we're not going to get any definitive answers now. As we saw last year, they don't hand out premierships in April or May. Only September matters (provided a team gets enough wins to make the finals).

Richmond are currently the form team of the comp and, as a supporter, you just have to hope that they can keep doing what they're currently doing, because it's working really well.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Even for a club on the top of its game this seems like some solid kool-aid drinking

Nope. I've always been level-headed about where we're at. I was pinching myself in September, laughing like an idiot at the inevitability of our wins. I have no doubt we have improved since then and have further improvement to come.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Even for a club on the top of its game this seems like some solid kool-aid drinking

As they say, sing when you're winning.

Richmond supporters have every reason to be on top of the world at the moment. Reigning premiers and looking like a very, very good chance to give it a shake again this year. Now is about as good a time as any for them to be up and about. Time will tell, I guess.

 

[Final Siren]

There's no shortage of teams that looked head and shoulders above the rest of the comp at some point during the home & away season but couldn't get the job done. It's about equally common for them to stumble as to go on and win the flag.

Just off the top of my head:

• Adelaide 2017
• Hawthorn 2012
• Collingwood 2011
• St Kilda 2009
• Geelong 2008
• Adelaide 2006
• West Coast 2005

 

[Paul Kersey]

There's no shortage of teams that looked head and shoulders above the rest of the comp at some point during the home & away season but couldn't get the job done. It's about equally common for them to stumble as to go on and win the flag.

Just off the top of my head:

• Adelaide 2017
• Hawthorn 2012
• Collingwood 2011
• St Kilda 2009
• Geelong 2008
• Adelaide 2006
• West Coast 2005

Yes - whether Richmond can keep it up will be interesting. Flag favourite and rightfully so at this time.

 

[cryptor]

How about the squiggle leader at Rd 6? By my estimate you only have to go back to the Bulldogs in 2016

True. But just 2 rounds later they weren't leading the combined scores any longer, and nor did they for the rest of the season - even after winning the flag.

My point was that the eventual premier isn't necessarily going to be the best side at some early arbitrary point of the season. The front runner may fade away and not get back up. Or maybe they do re-peak at finals. Or a completely different side comes out of no where after not even looking likely early on.

 

[MightyTiger]

Well yes, mainly. It is pretty much the same system for the last couple of years where we had very low injury rates. Crows supporters were saying the same thing as Richmond supporters are now ‘our boys are fitter and physios better’. But it is just luck and the laws of averages have caught up with us this year - just like they will to Richmond (hopefully near the end of the minor round).

So when Talia said that some of the boys had come back to pre season in less then ideal shape he was talking about what then?

 

[cryptor]

How's this for a finals series!

3 out of 4 finals in week 1 decided by 3 points or less.

Both finals in week 2 decided by 10 points or less.

A 7 point thriller in one of the prelims.

Richmond meet Hawthorn in finals for the first time ever in the Grand Final.

Outside of any game involving Richmond this would be a very exciting finals series for anyone to watch. Of course, I'm sure Tiger fans would enjoy the whole thing very much!

 

[threesixpio]

Weirdly enough we have never played Richmond in a final. That’s bonkers

 

[Handsuper47]

So it'd be a bit like last year, where we just bulldoze everyone in the finals.. I LIKE IT! ANOTHER!

 

[kaiserchief13]

Can't see the 2nd placed team only having 14 wins

 

[Tenilius]

Is old squiggsy drunk?

 

[snakebite01]

Is old squiggsy drunk?

View attachment 493191

Not that I’m questioning the squiggle but it seems a bit broken when Richmond only better their predicted attack by 10 points but improve quite markedly whilst Adelaide better their predicted attack by 16 but don’t move.

 

[HTT]

Not that I’m questioning the squiggle but it seems a bit broken when Richmond only better their predicted attack by 10 points but improve quite markedly whilst Adelaide better their predicted attack by 16 but don’t move.

That's because squiggle 2.0 values behinds more than 1/6 of a goal like regular scoring works - I think it effectively treats it as goals being worth 4 points and behinds being worth 3, so our 15.20 (110) looks far more better as 120, while Adelaide's 19.11 (125) becomes 109 - bang on the prediction.

 

[Xtreme]

Hawthorn v Richmond grand final....

I like that, Hawthorn can cause an upset 4 years after upsetting the Swans. And 10 years after upsetting the Cats.