Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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JRyan23 said:
View attachment 494358
Holy Moly that's harsh for 9-11th
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I think there's a clustering effect around the middle in simulations at this time of the year because we don't yet know which teams will drop off.

In reality, some teams will probably put the cue in the rack at some stage, due to injuries or poor form or bad luck, and it will lead to a stretching out of the numbers. But right now, we don't know who they are, so they clump.
 
Geelong +8 v GWS
Western Bulldogs +5 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Hawthorn +29
West Coast +16 v Port Adelaide
Sydney +12 v North Melbourne
Adelaide +45 v Carlton
Richmond +45 v Fremantle
St Kilda v Melbourne +18
Brisbane v Collingwood +21

8/9, spoiled by North's upset win.

1. Richmond 38.3
2. Geelong 18.8 (+1)
3. Adelaide 16.1 (-1)
4. Hawthorn 15.3 (-1)
5. West Coast 13.1 (+3)
6. Collingwood 9.2
7. Sydney 7.7 (-2)
8. North Melbourne 6.4 (+2)
9. Melbourne 6.2 (+2)
10. Port Adelaide 2.6 (-1)
11. GWS 1.9 (-4)
12. Fremantle -2.2
13. Essendon -14.5
14. Brisbane -16.37 (+2)
15. Gold Coast -16.43 (-1)
16. Western Bulldogs -16.9 (+1)
17. St. Kilda -19.7 (-2)
18. Carlton -25.5

Hawthorn +13 v Sydney
GWS +1 v West Coast
Carlton v Essendon +11
Gold Coast v Melbourne +17
Port Adelaide v Adelaide +13
Western Bulldogs +5 v Brisbane
Fremantle +26 v St Kilda
North Melbourne v Richmond +32
Collingwood v Geelong +10


And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 19.2
2. Hawthorn 15.5
3. Geelong 15.1 (+1)
4. West Coast 14.8 (+1)
5. Adelaide 14.3 (-2)
6. Collingwood 13.2 (+2)
7. Melbourne 12.8 (+3)
8. North Melbourne 12.7 (+3)
9. Sydney 12.5 (-3)
10. Port Adelaide 12.0 (-1)
11. GWS 11.8 (-4)
12. Fremantle 10.4
13. Gold Coast 7.5
14. Essendon 6.4
15. Western Bulldogs 6.1 (+1)
16. St Kilda 5.1 (-1)
17. Brisbane 4.9
18. Carlton 3.8
 
fpcookie said:
Does squig still rate attack higher than defence? Seems to go against what the coaches are trying to achieve with their gameplans and certainly against the last two premiers.

This snippet from an article quoting Paul Roos was interesting as which seemed to go against the attack > defence ethos of squiq:
Paul Roos said he began his coaching career at Sydney in 2003 with a mantra. “We looked at the indicators from the premiership teams in the 10 years prior to me taking over as coach,” he said in The Rise Of The Swans. “Forget inside-50s, forget contested footy, the common factor was defence. It’s the number one thing, not only in Australian sport either.”​
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The Flagpole part still uses an algorithm that rates attack higher than defense. I am thinking of replacing that with the new Squiggle 2.0 algorithm that's used for everything else, though.

Squiggle itself is slightly biased in favor of defensive teams in that you can get more chart movement from a very strong defensive performance than a very high-scoring one. Aside from that, though, it's supposed to be balanced.

We had a period from 2007 to 2015 where Geelong and Hawthorn in particular were very successful attack specialists, and defeated defensive specialists like St Kilda, Collingwood and Sydney, so it looked like the tide had turned away from the defence-first mantra. Defensive specialists had won a lot of Home & Away games but had a terrible strike rate in Grand Finals.

There are so few data points, though, that the last two flags being surprise wins by defensive specialists changes the tone fairly dramatically.
 
Final Siren said:
The Flagpole part still uses an algorithm that rates attack higher than defense. I am thinking of replacing that with the new Squiggle 2.0 algorithm that's used for everything else, though.

Squiggle itself is slightly biased in favor of defensive teams in that you can get more chart movement from a very strong defensive performance than a very high-scoring one. Aside from that, though, it's supposed to be balanced.

We had a period from 2007 to 2015 where Geelong and Hawthorn in particular were very successful attack specialists, and defeated defensive specialists like St Kilda, Collingwood and Sydney, so it looked like the tide had turned away from the defence-first mantra. Defensive specialists had won a lot of Home & Away games but had a terrible strike rate in Grand Finals.

There are so few data points, though, that the last two flags being surprise wins by defensive specialists changes the tone fairly dramatically.
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Ahh yep, forgot it was only Flagpole that incorporated that aspect.

Based on Roos' comments I quoted and your statistical analysis for 2007-15, there could be an argument for roughly 10 year periods where one ethos is more successful before switching back, rinse repeat.
 

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adammania9 said:
I got the Pies up to 4th!!
Click to expand...

Yep, I got us into 4th as well. It wasn't easy, but I just took it one week at a time and then the next thing I knew we were in the top 4. Pretty pleased with how things panned out.
 
fpcookie said:
Ahh yep, forgot it was only Flagpole that incorporated that aspect.

Based on Roos' comments I quoted and your statistical analysis for 2007-15, there could be an argument for roughly 10 year periods where one ethos is more successful before switching back, rinse repeat.
Click to expand...
Hmm, yes. I could believe that the pendulum does swing back and forth like that.

So much depends on the details of so few games, intelligently analyzing Grand Finals is probably beyond the capabilities of most models, including Squiggle. A human observer who pays attention and has some awareness of his or her own perceptual biases can probably better pick out trends and key factors.

Although even then, it's easy to draw almost any conclusion you like from a dataset of only one game per year. If we rolled a couple of dice once a year and studied the results, I'm sure we could come up with all manner of theories as to why there were more odd numbers in 2007-2015 but then all evens, etc.
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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