Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Chief]

Will it be clickable margins or score entries?

Basic drag n drop, save, post.

Nothing whizz bang.

Later will have a historical view showing your ladders all year.

 

[shintemaster]

Squiggle know how you went and how you’re travelling relative to other teams. It has no idea of whether a team has had / has injuries nor to what standard of player.

 

[ep2018]

Squiggle has us finishing 4th and having a very respectable loss against Hawthorn in a PF at the MCG, I would honestly take that in a heartbeat.

 

[OneGreatClub]

After another big performance in both defensive & scoring shot terms, the gap between 1st (Richmond) and 2nd (Geelong) has gone past Hawks 2012 and Collingwood 2011 and is now the biggest lead a team has held on Squiggle since Geelong 2008.

As those names suggest, that's no guarantee of a flag, but it's a really unusual degree of dominance, albeit at an early point in the season.

Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy early run this season considering they were Premiers last year.

 

[darcytiger]

Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy early run this season considering they were Premiers last year.

Next year they'll be saying Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy run into the finals allowing them to be fresh for their attack at a three peat

In all seriousness though, we have to play these teams at some point, and there is 'locked in' fixtures against Carlton and Melbourne to start the season who aren't going that well at the moment. Years down the track when those two are flying everyone will lament our 'forced' hard start to the year

 

[threesixpio]

Squiggle has us finishing 4th and having a very respectable loss against Hawthorn in a PF at the MCG, I would honestly take that in a heartbeat.

I had West Coast bottom four at the start of the year. WTF?

I blame Sammy Mitchell

 

[Crankyhawk]

Next year they'll be saying Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy run into the finals allowing them to be fresh for their attack at a three peat

In all seriousness though, we have to play these teams at some point, and there is 'locked in' fixtures against Carlton and Melbourne to start the season who aren't going that well at the moment. Years down the track when those two are flying everyone will lament our 'forced' hard start to the year

Given those two clubs I can't see a time where they are flying.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Next year they'll be saying Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy run into the finals allowing them to be fresh for their attack at a three peat

In all seriousness though, we have to play these teams at some point, and there is 'locked in' fixtures against Carlton and Melbourne to start the season who aren't going that well at the moment. Years down the track when those two are flying everyone will lament our 'forced' hard start to the year

Don’t get me wrong. The Tigers are a really good team and as my team won’t be there I am perfectly happy for them to win the premiership again this year ( their club song is awesome too) and thank you for knocking off the Crows last year.
It was just an observation..so little travelling..so many games at the G.. such an easy run to give you even more confidence that you can do a repeat. Confidence is a wonderful thing.
I must say, in Port’s case, constantly losing to Crows who we have to play twice each year means they can basically lock in those eight points at start of every year while we constantly have to lock in minus eight. They never bottom out unfortunately.

 

[baz_machine]

Also the tigers will have the pies game locked in most of the time after Anzac Day and Essendon for Dreamtime

Next year they'll be saying Tigers seem to have an incredibly easy run into the finals allowing them to be fresh for their attack at a three peat

In all seriousness though, we have to play these teams at some point, and there is 'locked in' fixtures against Carlton and Melbourne to start the season who aren't going that well at the moment. Years down the track when those two are flying everyone will lament our 'forced' hard start to the year

 

[shintemaster]

Squiggle has us finishing 4th and having a very respectable loss against Hawthorn in a PF at the MCG, I would honestly take that in a heartbeat.

Really? Why?
Given the relative evenness of the competition at the moment if my club made a preliminary final – no matter the expectations internally or externally at the start of the season – I’d be pretty upset about a loss against another upper middle team.

 

[beert]

After another big performance in both defensive & scoring shot terms, the gap between 1st (Richmond) and 2nd (Geelong) has gone past Hawks 2012 and Collingwood 2011 and is now the biggest lead a team has held on Squiggle since Geelong 2008.

Sorry if I missed this previously, FS, but did you recalculate prior year squiggles for the new algorithm? I'm assuming yes, but would be nice to be sure.

 

[beert]

There's a reason FMI is at the top of the FMI leaderboard. Nice for Stattraction to get one back on the field as well.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

There's a reason FMI is at the top of the FMI leaderboard. Nice for Stattraction to get one back on the field as well.
View attachment 495880

Did you put this image together or is it lifted from a site?

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Really? Why?
Given the relative evenness of the competition at the moment if my club made a preliminary final – no matter the expectations internally or externally at the start of the season – I’d be pretty upset about a loss against another upper middle team.

Actually most Tigers fans were struggling for confidence going into last years final series. Not a criticism, it's natural after a very long wait I think. A lot are really making up for it this year

 

[kingswood71]

I made a thing!

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

Because why do you have to wait until Round 20 for the official ladder predictor to come out.

I somehow ended up with Hawthorn in 4th!....Damn your predictor !!!

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

so an away win against GWS without NicNat, Shuey or McGovern and the squiggle barely has us moving. Maths cant account for the bigger things i guess.

 

[Hobbes]

so an away win against GWS without NicNat, Shuey or McGovern and the squiggle barely has us moving. Maths cant account for the bigger things i guess.

The win might be less meaningful if outs are considered - GWS have heaps.

 

[frenchconnection]

The win might be less meaningful if outs are considered - GWS have heaps.

We also had Jetta out as well and 3 of our youngsters who have shown something, namely Liam Ryan who is just so exciting to watch as well as Venables who's no slouch plus Petracelli who is a speedster and kicked 2 goals last week - all the youngsters out with lower leg injuries. So you could say we were missing possibly 7 of our top 22 players. So we also had our fair share out.

 

[Final Siren]

Did you put this image together or is it lifted from a site?

That's from a Squiggle game day page: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=463

I'm tracking tips from a dozen or so good models.

There's an overall leaderboard here: https://squiggle.com.au/leaderboard/

 

[Final Siren]

FYI a couple of people have pointed out that the Tower of Power is getting out of whack during games... the live scores make the projections to change but the styling doesn't, so it shows teams in the wrong spot. Once the game is finished and/or a sim runs, it gets back into sync. Should fix this soonish.

 

[Final Siren]

There's a reason FMI is at the top of the FMI leaderboard. Nice for Stattraction to get one back on the field as well.
View attachment 495880

Yeah, apparently tipping the Hawks to win a close one by 3 doesn't always work.

 

[Final Siren]

so an away win against GWS without NicNat, Shuey or McGovern and the squiggle barely has us moving. Maths cant account for the bigger things i guess.

There was enough movement to shift the Eagles to 2nd on the predicted ladder. It was a good interstate win against an above-average side; it just didn't have any of the factors that can put a rocket under a side, like extreme defensiveness or scoring shot domination.

Squiggle doesn't track personnel changes, so there's no credit for winning without particular players.

Next week is your opportunity: Thump the Tigers and that'll make a big difference.

West Coast so far in 2018: They've come a fair way.

 

[Final Siren]

Sorry if I missed this previously, FS, but did you recalculate prior year squiggles for the new algorithm? I'm assuming yes, but would be nice to be sure.

Yep (although I have to update some of the premiership cup positions). Charts generated by the old algorithm can be accessed at https://live.squiggle.com.au/v1/

 

[Hobbes]

Hawthorn +13 v Sydney
GWS +1 v West Coast
Carlton v Essendon +11
Gold Coast v Melbourne +17
Port Adelaide v Adelaide +13
Western Bulldogs +5 v Brisbane
Fremantle +26 v St Kilda
North Melbourne v Richmond +32
Collingwood v Geelong +10

5/9.

1. Richmond 35.3
2. Geelong 21.0
3. West Coast 18.9 (+2)
4. Adelaide 12.52 (-1)
5. Hawthorn 12.51 (-1)
6. Melbourne 11.6 (+3)
7. Sydney 11.4
8. North Melbourne 11.1
9. Port Adelaide 7.2 (+1)
10. Collingwood 6.1 (-4)
11. Fremantle -1.9 (+1)
12. GWS -2.5 (-1)
13. Western Bulldogs -16.3 (+3)
14. Essendon -18.4 (-1)
15. Brisbane -19.0
16. St Kilda -21.3 (+1)
17. Gold coast -22.7 (-2)
18. Carlton -23.0

West Coast and Geelong are starting to clear out from the pack in 2nd and 3rd place. You could throw a very small rug over 4th-8th, and Port and Collingwood are still in the conversation for finals. Fremantle and GWS need to improve their form to play September, and the last six are very clearly the last six. Gold Coast and the Bulldogs might have three wins to North's four, but their formlines are miles apart.

Adelaide +35 v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne +19 v GWS
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide +30 (no home ground advantage counted)
Essendon v Geelong +39
Sydney +25 v Fremantle
St Kilda v Collingwood +27
Carlton v Melbourne +34
Brisbane v Hawthorn +25
West Coast v Richmond +9

(On the current ratings, this is the worst result that the algorithm will tip for Richmond).



And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 19.0
2. West Coast 16.0 (+2)
3. Geelong 15.9
4. Hawthorn 14.6 (-2)
5. Melbourne 13.9 (+2)
6. Sydney 13.7 (+3)
7. Port Adelaide 13.4 (+3)
8. North Melbourne 13.3
9. Adelaide 13.0 (-4)
10. Collingwood 12.3 (-4)
11. GWS 10.7
12. Fremantle 10.6
13. Western Bulldogs 6.4 (+2)
14. Gold Coast 6.2 (-1)
15. Essendon 5.3 (-1)
16. Carlton 4.8 (+2)
17. St Kilda 4.7 (-1)
18. Brisbane -4.2 (-1)

It's worth looking at this, because there are a few surprises. In particular, the ladder of how many wins teams are expected to score in the remainder of the year (sorted by ratings, wins rounded to nearest half). In brackets is the number of wins which would be expected from an average draw, given their rating. and if it's significantly different to the predicted #wins.

1. Richmond 35.3: 12
2. Geelong 21.0: 10
3. West Coast 18.9: 9 (9.5)
4. Adelaide 12.52: 8 (8.5)
5. Hawthorn 12.51: 9.5 (8.5)
6. Melbourne 11.6: 9 (8.5)
7. Sydney 11.4: 8.5
8. North Melbourne 11.1: 9.5 (8.5)
9. Port Adelaide 7.2: 8.5 (8)
10. Collingwood 6.1: 8.5 (7.5)
11. Fremantle -1.9: 6.5
12. GWS -2.5: 6 (6.5)
13. Western Bulldogs -16.3: 3.5 (4.5)
14. Essendon -18.4: 3.5 (4.5)
15. Brisbane -19.0: 4
16. St Kilda -21.3: 3 (4)
17. Gold coast -22.7: 3 (3.5)
18. Carlton -23.0: 4 (3.5)

Some teams are clearly more blessed than others with the matches to come, which could be from the original fixture or because they've played the easier part of the year. In particular, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Melbourne are well-placed, while Adelaide has a wretched time. There's a substantial drop from 10th to 11th, and then a huge chasm from 12th to 13th.

The general tendency of stronger teams to have a favourable fixture to come is doubtless partly because they can't play themselves - this is borne out by the heavily negative prognoses for the Bulldogs, Essendon and St Kilda.

 

[iluvparis]

We also had Jetta out as well and 3 of our youngsters who have shown something, namely Liam Ryan who is just so exciting to watch as well as Venables who's no slouch plus Petracelli who is a speedster and kicked 2 goals last week - all the youngsters out with lower leg injuries. So you could say we were missing possibly 7 of our top 22 players. So we also had our fair share out.

Yeah those two first year rookies are certainly going to make a 5 goal difference once they get back into your side