Dirty Bird
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Is it possible to allow us to see these historically?
Id love to see the post round 14 version of this right now
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Id love to see the post round 14 version of this right now
- Aug 18, 2009
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It's a bit less exciting than you might imagine, because although Adelaide's form has improved dramatically, their ladder prospects are still pretty dire. So you only see a bar slide from 99% spoon-likely to 85% spoon-likely.
Likewise, on my Ladder Scoreboard page, there's only a little upwards kick at the end:
The good ol' Tower of Power is a bit more dynamic:
But since Adelaide's turnaround has been in form, not in ladder position, you can probably see it best on Live Squiggle:
Have many teams over the years ended up out there in their own little worlds like the Pies and Freo ?
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iluvparis
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From memory the swans used to make a regular occurrence of it
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Yes, and anyone coached by Ross Lyon. Adelaide 2005-2006 got out there, as did Collingwood 2011.
The fun one is when a team gets some vertical space. Wildly attacking teams include Melbourne 2018, Adelaide 2016-2017, and Hawthorn 2013. Late 90s North Melbourne used to live there.
Ha the spectre of Ross still haunting the Dockers , don't think we'll been pushing up vertically anytime soon either
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Yes for games that have been scheduled. The long-range finals forecast over at Live Squiggle, though, doesn't know about the pandemic, and I probably won't teach it because it's too much of a pain in the butt.
Richmond and Geelong have identical ratings on the squiggle right now
Attack: 57.88
Defence: 72.88
Attack: 57.88
Defence: 72.88
- Aug 18, 2009
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Ha, that's pretty cool. With more precision, it's:
Richmond 72.883365 OFF, 57.876798 DEF
Geelong 72.883881 OFF, 57.881612 DEF
Geelong by a cat's whisker.
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dont have to go through port at home to reach the gf probably
- Aug 18, 2009
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Squiggle expected Port to win by 7, but if the Cats hadn't been unusually inaccurate, they would have won. So their rating improves.
I think on expected score, both teams were even, which makes it a good performance by Geelong against home advantage.
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Yep, fair enough.
Does Squiggle take into account the Cats players going to water in finals series?
Squiggle still predicting Geelong flag. Go home, Squigs, you're drunk. 
- Aug 18, 2009
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No, it's with Chris Scott on this one.
Gydafud
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I like Geelong’s movement on the squiggle
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TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Im very surprised that Squiggle has the Cats a clear 7pt winners here.
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TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Final Siren just curious if this game was played in QLD, would Port be favourites to win?
- Jun 22, 2011
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Tigers would be. Port are being awarded a +6.1 point HGA, if you moved it to a neutral QLD site the prediction would swing to Richmond.
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TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Its what I would have thought as well.
Are you saying this because you know or just your thoughts/opinions?
- Jun 22, 2011
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Just another long-time squiggler. If you go to the tips page on Squiggle, it provides the HGA modifier for each game.
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TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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I think it has been the most challenging year ever (obviously) to predict totals given the absolute unusual and first time ever occurrence of the scheduling of games in such an ad hoc manner.
IIRC I think Squiggle has been bang on for the last few weeks, bar the Eagles-Pies game.
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It's been a predictable year - favourites have won 73% of the time in 2020, vs a long-term average of somewhere around 69%.
Margin tipping especially has been easier, probably because scores are lower. A good MAE (average difference betweeen tipped and actual margin) is about 23 pts this year, vs 27pts or thereabouts normally.
Where models fell down this year was on preseason ladder predictions. I blame the fixture being redrawn after R1.
A good year for Squiggle, with 116 tips to date. But models are less useful at this time of year - they're stronger at forecasting home & away matches and whole seasons than individual finals games.
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TheBrownDog
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May I kindly ask, your model predicts the Power, do you think personally we will see the Tigers in the GF?
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