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Personally I think we will lose to Port tonight. But I usually go into games thinking we're going to lose, because it's hard to break the habit of a lifetime.May I kindly ask, your model predicts the Power, do you think personally we will see the Tigers in the GF?
I'm the same.Personally I think we will lose to Port tonight. But I usually go into games thinking we're going to lose, because it's hard to break the habit of a lifetime.
Yes, Squiggle is more pro-Cats than most models, although not outrageously so. It liked Geelong's 25 scoring shots to Collingwood's 7 last week.Im very surprised that Squiggle has the Cats a clear 7pt winners here.
It was very bearish in 2017. (And bullish in 2018.) 2019 I think was about right -- had the Tigers 2nd flag favourite after the finals and tipped their finals correctly except for the Brisbane QF.I'm the same.
I vaguely remember this time last year Squiggle was bearish on us too wasnt it?
That’s an imposing move
I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.Phwoar. Hope the Richmond players have caught a glimpse of that! Intimidating!
Curiously, what has been the most “positive” position a team has lost a GF from?
Wasn’t a GF, but the 2018 prelim must have been heavily in Richmonds favour too.I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.
We were rated similarly defensively to the 08 Cats but not quite the same offensively, about 62Wasn’t a GF, but the 2018 prelim must have been heavily in Richmonds favour too.
Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.I would have thought it was your mob in 2008, rated about 70-70 going in.
Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.
A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.
As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239
Booooooo!!!Yes, 2008 is the biggest ratings deficit overcome by a GF winner in modern football, and the only year similar to 2020 if Richmond get up. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1970 when Carlton beat Collingwood in the famous "handball, handball, handball" game.
A few caveats, though: Modern football is a less predictable than it used to be. Squiggle's GF tip is frequently wrong. And 2020 is a weird season with freakishly low scores.
As I write, Richmond are currently GF favourites with the bookies, but every model gives Geelong the edge: https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=6239
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Hawthorn weren’t rated much higher overall than Sydney, the two teams were just opposite in terms of off/def2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
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2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
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The Hawks are ahead of the Swans there on overall rating (horizontal + vertical), but not by much. There are quite a few years where there's a gap like that - noticeable but much smaller than 2020 - most recently 2017.2012? Hawthorn had a significantly better attack but we had the better defence. Fortunately for us the Hawks didn't kick straight that day!
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