Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Interesting to see it doesnt rarte Brisbane this year. But then think about some of the statistics I can see why: less home games, too many close wins, not enough big wins, etc. Accuracy should improve as a slight counterbalance though
 
KissKiss said:
Interesting to see it doesnt rarte Brisbane this year. But then think about some of the statistics I can see why: less home games, too many close wins, not enough big wins, etc. Accuracy should improve as a slight counterbalance though
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It didn't rate West Coast 2018 all year either. And funnily enough, rated Richmond 2018 superior to their three premiership years.

As we all know, it's being able to win the right games that matter the most.
 

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KissKiss said:
Interesting to see it doesnt rarte Brisbane this year. But then think about some of the statistics I can see why: less home games, too many close wins, not enough big wins, etc. Accuracy should improve as a slight counterbalance though
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Less of a home advantage now that others played half their season in Brisbane last season...
 
Hap Hapablap said:
when does squiggle makes its call?
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I will update player lists with new long-term injuries etc for a final ladder prediction next week.

I don't think there are any big calls this year... Squiggle was pretty hot on St Kilda at the end of 2020, but that's been tempered by their terrible fixture and injuries. It's a bit more pessimistic than most on Brisbane and West Coast, but still expects them to be finals competitors. It hates North Melbourne, but so does everyone.

Also we're entering 2021 with some major rule changes, off the back of a unique year. So there's lots of uncertainty, and not much opportunity for one of those Squiggle hot takes I know we all love.
 
Final Siren said:
I will update player lists with new long-term injuries etc for a final ladder prediction next week.

I don't think there are any big calls this year... Squiggle was pretty hot on St Kilda at the end of 2020, but that's been tempered by their terrible fixture and injuries. It's a bit more pessimistic than most on Brisbane and West Coast, but still expects them to be finals competitors. It hates North Melbourne, but so does everyone.

Also we're entering 2021 with some major rule changes, off the back of a unique year. So there's lots of uncertainty, and not much opportunity for one of those Squiggle hot takes I know we all love.
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Seems to rate Gold Coast very poorly, I wouldn't have expected GCS to be rated to finish lower than Essendon & Adelaide.
 
Sherrinator said:
Home ground advantage will be greater since we will play half our games at the Gabba and the other teams won’t be living down the road from the stadium.
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Yes. Heavily outweighed by the fact you'll be leaving your home state for games twice as much this season.
 
Screenshot from 2021-03-15 16-38-24.png
This is after off-season player movement, long-term injuries, fixture, and that one preseason match.

So nothing particularly shocking... Melbourne in for Collingwood is the only tipped Top 8 change.

Geelong and Richmond are viewed as a fair way ahead of the pack, mainly because Port Adelaide's 2020 is discounted from having a relatively large number of home advantage games.

Gold Coast are low because most of their good work in 2020 was in the front half of the season. As a human, you might think that the Suns are poised to do that thing again where they start off the new year with a bang, and this might turn out to be right, but Squiggle just sees a team on the slide.

As noted previously, it's a tough year for models, with fundamental rule changes on top of an unusual 2020! So, you know, feel free to use your own brain.
 

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Final Siren said:
View attachment 1077679
This is after off-season player movement, long-term injuries, fixture, and that one preseason match.

So nothing particularly shocking... Melbourne in for Collingwood is the only tipped Top 8 change.

Geelong and Richmond are viewed as a fair way ahead of the pack, mainly because Port Adelaide's 2020 is discounted from having a relatively large number of home advantage games.

Gold Coast are low because most of their good work in 2020 was in the front half of the season. As a human, you might think that the Suns are poised to do that thing again where they start off the new year with a bang, and this might turn out to be right, but Squiggle just sees a team on the slide.

As noted previously, it's a tough year for models, with fundamental rule changes on top of an unusual 2020! So, you know, feel free to use your own brain.
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Lions bring in Daniher, Cockatoo, lose Rayner for most likely the season, but with their list profile...they're sliding to 8th with 11 wins? :think:
 
jarrod_island_doggies said:
Lions bring in Daniher, Cockatoo, lose Rayner for most likely the season, but with their list profile...they're sliding to 8th with 11 wins? :think:
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Like with Port, they lose their ample amount of home games.
 
jarrod_island_doggies said:
Lions bring in Daniher, Cockatoo, lose Rayner for most likely the season, but with their list profile...they're sliding to 8th with 11 wins? :think:
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Brisbane janked an extraordinary number of close wins last year -- from memory, I think they won 3 "away" games in Queensland by less than a goal. So the model expects some reversion to the mean.

There's a good Fox Sports article on this here: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/cbd3462188270059874d845c5901308e

TEAMS THAT OVERPERFORMED IN 2020 (Should fall in 2021)

Brisbane Lions

Points for/against in 2020: 1184/948 (percentage of 124.9)

Actual wins: 14

Pythagorean wins: 11.9


Our strongest prediction for 2021, using Pythagoras, is that Brisbane will decline.

That makes sense even before you look at the underlying stats. The Lions were fortunate to have the league migrate to their home state, handing them nine games at the Gabba and another four down the road at Metricon Stadium. They played just three games outside of Queensland, going 1-2.

Then you need to look at close games. Everyone knows one bad bounce can cost a team a game - or even a premiership - and so any game decided by a kick had some luck involved.

Brisbane was the only team to go unbeaten in games decided by a goal or less, with a one-point win over North Melbourne, a two-point win over St Kilda and a four-point win over Melbourne. In fact they went unbeaten in all games decided by two goals or less, also beating Collingwood by eight points and Fremantle by 12.

Throw in the fact Brisbane has been one of the AFL’s luckiest teams with injuries for two consecutive seasons, and all signs are pointing to a slide. They’re still a very strong team, and adding Joe Daniher could be a gamechanger, but history suggests some things won’t go their way in 2021 - and that could be the difference between another top-two finish and being stuck in an elimination final.
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Squiggle seems to be pretty pessimistic about Freo. 13th with a percentage under 90 would be a pretty disappointing result based on their good signs last year.
 
FYI the AFL is running a survey on how to improve their online stats:

AFL Stats Research

AFL Stats Research.
survey.alchemer.com

I've been campaigning for a while for the AFL to provide basic match data in a machine-readable format that anyone can use in their own spreadsheet, model, or whatever... so feel free to suggest that.
 
Final Siren said:
FYI the AFL is running a survey on how to improve their online stats:

AFL Stats Research

AFL Stats Research.
survey.alchemer.com

I've been campaigning for a while for the AFL to provide basic match data in a machine-readable format that anyone can use in their own spreadsheet, model, or whatever... so feel free to suggest that.
Click to expand...
What match data do you need?
 
Chief said:
What match data do you need?
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I can get what I need, but only because I have elite haxx0r skillz that let me build bots to dodge around the internet gathering data from media companies. I would like everyone to be able to make their own spreadsheet / model / analysis without needing to spend a lot of time manually sourcing and entering this data, as this would stimulate innovative new tools, sites, and insights for all of us.

I wrote more about this here: https://squiggle.com.au/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-an-afl-api/
 
Final Siren said:
FYI the AFL is running a survey on how to improve their online stats:

AFL Stats Research

AFL Stats Research.
survey.alchemer.com

I've been campaigning for a while for the AFL to provide basic match data in a machine-readable format that anyone can use in their own spreadsheet, model, or whatever... so feel free to suggest that.
Click to expand...
I did it a few days ago.

Asked for Distance Covered (like the Telstra Tracker) for players/team. This is so someone might have really low stats but they might run around a lot chasing/harrasing.

Also "speed" (avg) so that I could see how fast a player/team is...we can easily get team age/height/weight/games etc...etc but there's no way to know how "pacy" a team is atm.

And also asked them to update the damn heatmap totals...everyone is stuck on 51/49% on the heatmaps !!!
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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