Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Squiggle underrating WC.

The new rules favour fast transition, which is what WC does best. That and having a high powered forward line....
Squiggle will come round on them if they get to work. I think some of the lack of favour came from their ridiculous goal kicking accuracy which squiggle doesn't rate a chance to hold up long term.
 
Port played 7 games at Adelaide Oval and 10 away games in 2020.

In a regular season they'll play 12 games at Adelaide Oval and 10 away games.

Port literally only gain home games going back to a full season.
All but 2 of those away games were against a side who was also away from home, so it will be tougher this year. For example, in 2020, Port's away game against Collingwood was at the Gabba, which is essentially a neutral venue, while in 2021 it's back to the MCG.

That said, Port do have a pretty handy fixture, and look very good for Top 2.
 
I did it a few days ago.

Asked for Distance Covered (like the Telstra Tracker) for players/team. This is so someone might have really low stats but they might run around a lot chasing/harrasing.

Also "speed" (avg) so that I could see how fast a player/team is...we can easily get team age/height/weight/games etc...etc but there's no way to know how "pacy" a team is atm.

And also asked them to update the damn heatmap totals...everyone is stuck on 51/49% on the heatmaps !!!
discussion on "speed"...c'mon, get it in AFL

 
Squiggle underrating WC.

The new rules favour fast transition, which is what WC does best. That and having a high powered forward line....
We've been kicking pretty straight for a few years now...not sure how much downward variance there is there. Obviously helped by having good set shot kickers and taking marks in more beneficial parts of the ground (and the rigged umpiring at Optus calling frees in the goalsquare ldo).
 
Lions bring in Daniher, Cockatoo, lose Rayner for most likely the season, but with their list profile...they're sliding to 8th with 11 wins? :think:
the squiggle looks like he is on the money
 

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Squiggle tips a Richmond-Melbourne Grand Final for the first time in 80 years and Brisbane to finish 9th.

We’re always underrated.
I will defend Squiggle's record on West Coast to the death. It has been pessimistic on the Eagles relative to popular opinion, but also been pretty accurate. E.g. last year tipped them for 9th even though they were a red-hot flag fancy; they were 5th after home & away that included a surprise fixture reshuffle eliminating most of their true away games, and 7th after finals.

The Eagles do keep recording unusually accurate goalkicking numbers, though. And it's true that Squiggle is on the low end of models' projections:

Screenshot from 2021-03-31 15-17-51.png
 
Mmm, Squiggle is a bit out there on the Blues...

View attachment 1090451

Have confidence in your model. It's entirely possible that the Blues are going to be that good. Although perhaps you might want to hedge your bets with some statements like " Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad." George Box 1976 Journal of the American Statistical Association.

Just a thought .... with my tongue firmly in my cheek.

And given the Tiger in the quote I just had to use it :cool:
 
Carlton seem to have above average goal scoring accuracy AGAINST them this season and last so that probably explains some of squiggles overestimation?

Rest assured squiggle is wrong and we won't get near any of those win totals.
 
I’m thinking that 2020 has given the hawks a subdued 2021. Given a bottom 4 draw and will go into many games an even chance even without sicily Gunston and Wingard.

squiggle head to head gives them under .40 in most games, except v north and essendon
 

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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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