The Statistics Thread

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Bulldog Brent said:
Round 16. North. 11.13.79
Round 17. Swans. 11.13.79
Round 18. Suns. 11.13.79

Surely a record?
Click to expand...

Never happened before in our VFA/AFL history but it came mighty close to being 4 weeks in a row in 1921 with 45, 45, 46, 45 scored against us in R9-R12...

Screen Shot 2021-07-17 at 10.36.05 pm.png
 
We play Adelaide in game 1998. Same shit, different smell.
 
First crack sometimes has some nice info in-between the fluff. We've had 7 players play every game. Melbourne have 12, Geelong 5, Port 8, Brisbane 10 and Sydndey 6. If you instead say players that have played every game or only missed 1-2, we've had 13. Melbourne 17, Geelong 14, Port 13, Brisbane 15 and Sydney 14.

In this segment David King sort of corrected himself and has said our ommisions aren't by choice but we've made changes not necessarily due to injuries. Puzzled at what he could possibly mean I've tried to break down our ins and outs every week. Can I just say I hate the way they list the sub? Round 2 and 9 West was out as 'managed' but really was an unused sub. Cavarra on the other hand is an ommision in round 6, and I can only assume it's different because he was a used sub? Lipinski is dropped to the sub, subbed in, and promoted back into the starting 22 in the space of 3 weeks but never recorded as an in or out. Then mid way through the year the include 'medi-sub' as an out instead of using managed/rested. But I'm not even sure that's true cause Port's never listed someone out as a medi-sub, so I don't know if they just don't bother and do it as ommitted or if they just haven't dropped their subs since then. As if listening to King talk doesn't confuse me enough.

So there's a little bit of an error in that when a sub was managed/rested in the first half of the year I counted that but when they were an out due to 'medi-sub' I ignored it. Whatever, it should only be a tiny rounding error.

Outs due to ommisions: 17
Outs due to management: 5
Outs due to injuries: 15
Outs due to suspensions: 1
Out due to quarantine: 1

Around 45% of our changes are forced. A real quick and ugly round up is

Melbourne 25 changes, 10 forced (40%)
Geelong 41 changes, 21 forced (50%)
Port 37 changes, 19 forced (50%)
Brisbane 29 changes, 16 forced (55%)
Sydney 44 changes, 16 forced (35%)

If anything I think our forced/unforced changes is pretty normal. We just ended up using more of our list than other sides because Bevo likes to try new things.

(And just because it was annoying me that this included subs in the first half of the year but not the second, the percentages if you included medi-subs will have Melbourne drop to 35%, Brisbane to 50%, and the rest keep to the same rounding.)
 
During this year we have set a personal record many times for our highest percentage at the end of each particular round. After today's 49-point win against Adelaide we now have our highest percentage after round 20. Our previous highest had been 133.9 after round 20, 1992. The oldest Bulldogs percentage which has been beaten was when we finished with 142.4 after round 17 this year, which outdid our previous best round 17 total of 141.7 from 1953. I would have liked to see that percentage stay put among all the 21st century percentages: it's been overtaken by only 0.7 %, but never mind. I have bolded all the instances of 2021 setting a new highest percentage and will update the table as the remaining three rounds unfold, as it looks likely those percentages from 1992 are going to be toppled (except round 24 of course).


roundhighest percentageseasonladder position
1321.220061
2264.920161
3181.620211
4171.820162
5178.620211
6175.320211
7157.020212
8150.220212
9146.920212
10161.920211
11150.620212
12150.020212
13150.020212
14144.720212
15148.620212
16147.620211
17142.420212
18141.320104
19140.320104
20142.020211
21138.120212
22134.520214
23132.820215
24129.819922
 
Last edited:

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Bailey Smith has currently kicked 8 goals in finals matches for the Bulldogs.
Clay Smith finished with 8 finals goals for the Bulldogs.
Rohan Smith finished with 8 finals goals for the Bulldogs.

Roarke Smith currently has 2 finals goals. I'm expecting big things from him in our first final this year.
 
Gees, this is concerning.

1649391724774.png

Even more concerning is this only goes back to 2013...

Looking beyond that:

2012: Lost to Geelong twice
2011: Lost to Collingwood
2010: Lost to Geelong
2009: Defeated Hawthorn by 88 pts

That is depressing. 0-13 in our last 13 H&A matches against the reigning premier.
 
With all the trolling and whining about free kicks I thought I'd have a look at the historical record. All the stats are from AFL Tables.

Here is the WB record (blue columns) and that of the premiership side (orange) for each of the 32 completed seasons from 1990 to now. The competition was called the VFL before 1990. After that the competition moved to become a truly national one so it's a reasonable year to call the start of the modern era.

1650941223595.png
NB: Ladder position is after the H&A rounds, not after the finals series.

Some general observations about what the stats say:
  • In 32 seasons we only finished with a negative difference (more Frees Against than Frees For) on seven occasions. Expected result would be 16.
  • We finished as the side with the greatest free kick percentage (FF/FA) on 9 occasions out of 32. On average it should only be about twice in 32 years.
  • Our overall average (FF/FA) over that period is 109.01%. To look at it another way, for every 100 frees awarded we get 54.5 and the opposition gets 45.5.
  • In six of those nine years where we ranked first for FF/FA we made the finals but they also included three poor years:
    • Second on ladder - 1
    • Third on ladder - 2
    • Fifth - 1 (played the GF)
    • Seventh - 2 (one of these we were Premiers)
    • Tenth - 1
    • Twelfth - 1
    • 16th (wooden spoon) - 1
  • The Premiers each year averaged about what you'd expect: 99.85% over 32 years. 14 had a positive difference, 17 had a negative difference and one was exactly even (no difference).
  • The WB are the only Premiers in that period to finish top in the FF/FA% in the same year. However on three other occasions the Premiers finished in the top three for FF/FA%.
  • Since Richmond's period of dominance began (2017) their ranking in FF/FA% has been:
    • 2017 - 18th
    • 2018 - 18th
    • 2019 - 13th
    • 2020 - 17th
    • 2021 - 18th
    • and so far in 2022 they are 18th again.
  • More free kicks seemed to be awarded in a match in the 1990s, especially before 1995. For some reason it dropped from about 1995-2000 and remained at lower levels for ten years or so but it has seen a slight uptick in the last decade (ignoring the shortened Covid season of 2020).
What does it tell us?
  • Yes, we are definitely a statistical outlier.
  • No, there doesn't appear to be any strong correlation between having a good free kick differential and on-field success. If anything there might be some negative correlation (more Premiers have a poor free kick differential, especially when you look at Richmond in recent years).
Why are we a statistical outlier?
Good question! It doesn't appear to have made a huge difference although no doubt some opposition club trolls will see it differently. It doesn' really suggest any one WB coach dictated a playing style that was more (or less) likely to concede frees. It could be that we have often had smaller and lighter players but that's pretty tenuous and I haven't any solid evidence to support it.​
​
What's going on with Richmond?
Another good question. It's hard to call it a coincidence over five seasons. Maybe it's their swarming style. Maybe they just have a philosophy of go hard, go often. Pressure is a huge part of the game and the side that applies it better and more consistently will win most of the time. Yes you give away a few more frees doing that but on balance perhaps it pays off handsomely with more loose ball and plenty of speedy crumbers to pick up the scraps. Yet by contrast there's not much to suggest that Hawthorn's era of so-called "unsociable football" generated more frees against than normal.​
​
​
Stay tuned. I'll post a bit more in a while - the home and away variance in the full record going back to 1965.​
 
Free Kicks 1965 to the present (Rd 5, 2022) - Who has the greatest home ground advantage?

Surprise, surprise! It's the West Coast Eagles, followed by Port. Then us.

In home games every club except Hawthorn (LOL) has received more free kicks than they have given away. Hmmmmm ... :think:

1650945144463.png
The second column shows FF / FA as a percentage since 1965.
Brisbane appears twice in this table - once as the Bears and once as the Lions.
 
Free Kicks - does anybody do any good away from home?

Yes, the Western Bulldogs do. No other club apart from the defunct Fitzroy has won more free kicks than they have conceded while playing away. Although Collingwood comes close.

1650945607699.png
 

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