Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis
- Thread starter Rory Walkerfield
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Anyway for those who are interested in what the stats say (as opposed to those who just want to sook), they are freely available here and have the percentages home and away for all time.
tl;dr Home teams get more free kicks
tl;dr Home teams get more free kicks
Out of interest the club that by far gets the worst deal is the most successful club of the last 50 years.
The clubs that do the best by far are the Dogs and the Eagles. The others have a pretty marginal differential.
The clubs that do the best by far are the Dogs and the Eagles. The others have a pretty marginal differential.
What he does is look at why that might be.
There was a philosophy at west coast under woosha that tackling an oncoming player was the easiest way to give away a free kick, so instead we had the much argued on the west coast board and elsewhere tactic of corralling a player coming at you instead of tackling them. As a result we rarely if ever gave away head high / ducking free kicks in an era where it was rife. Then McGovern came to the Eagles and the policy went into overdrive. We were happy for players to get a kick off under pressure and would actively seek that option rather than tackle at all, and profited as McGovern could judge where the ball was going to go before anyone else and was such a good timer of leaping for the mark he would win the ball most times - then we got Barrass and it was even better - why give away a free kick when they will just kick it to one of them anyway.
Eventually the net effect of this was to have it highlighted by the Victorian media and for them to send Victorian umpires over to officiate our matches - and unbelievably the free kick count went even more in our favour - shock horror, who would have thought eh?
So then there was basically an instruction to even it up and so for the next few years any time Kennedy or Darling went for a mark it was open season for two opposition guys to actually grab hold of an arm each and blatantly physically impede them from running at the ball, no free paid. The two of them were only paid the most egregious frees so unless they could reef their arms clear they were hamstrung and thus the free kick count evened up.
They both had the talent to kick goals regardless but yeah both of them had a terrible run at free kicks for years as a result.
That’s the danger of looking at free kick counts as a way of adjudicating the fairness of a game. Only dumb campaigners do it.
Anyone with an ounce of footy knowledge looks at the reasons why, whether it’s the game plan, whether there’s a couple of players in a team who are almost unstoppable so they are deliberately fouled multiple times a game. Whether a team has perfected a throw disguised as a handball and the umpires aren’t calling it. Whether a team has a few polished duckers drawing multiple frees every game. Whether a team plays “unsociable football” that means their free kick count is skewed against them but gets them a dividend in intimidation / sore oppo players etc.
Just looking at a raw free kick count if smoothbrain shizz - do better.
Is there a reason we can't have more neutral umpires? When a Vic team plays NSW team why can't the umpires be from WA QLD or SA?
The AFL need to invest in umpires too and their development so that it's their only job and during the week they watch vision and practise position and go to AFL clubs mid week trainings to talk with players and coaches
Each State should have their own Umpire academy and with zoom can regularly have meetings and connect with all the other state academies so they are all on the same page.
The AFL need to invest in umpires too and their development so that it's their only job and during the week they watch vision and practise position and go to AFL clubs mid week trainings to talk with players and coaches
Each State should have their own Umpire academy and with zoom can regularly have meetings and connect with all the other state academies so they are all on the same page.
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You certainly wouldn't find me in a gameday thread whinging about the boys in green
Caligo
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There is absolutely no way you can argue 1000 extra free kicks is the result of game plan. That is straight up madness.
hawkman
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100% then we wouldn't get corruption like Dean Margetts umpiring West Coast games every week.
It seems a logical solution but of course would cost the AFL a fair bit of coin.
If they made it a real career opportunity for fitness and footy loving people, perhaps even have a special scholarship from school or get some of these undrafted kids who know the game well but don't have all the skills to be an AFL player.
Say Umpires in these academies get like 100k base salary and then extra match day payments, a bet a lot kids would view that as a great job to aspire to. You get to travel alot and be around footy and the AFL
Media: WC ARE TANKING AGAINST ESSENDON SACK SIMPSON!!!
Media: Stupid WC beating the Dogs...SACK SIMPSON!!
Media: Nth are doing what they need to do to ensure pick 1 and should be commended, infact they deserve more compensation!!
Media: Stupid WC beating the Dogs...SACK SIMPSON!!
Media: Nth are doing what they need to do to ensure pick 1 and should be commended, infact they deserve more compensation!!
Good to see you're so on the ball and with the times.
Over a period of 15 years and near 400 games we avoided getting an average of 2.5 free kicks awarded against us per game by not tackling players face on, avoiding the Joel Selwoods whilst allowing Luke Shuey to collect them.
Not only did we avoid giving away free kicks but McGovern and Barrass had a field day.
If you want further confirmation, search the word corral on the eagles board.
The tactic only been discussed 40000 times or so…. The fact that we as a team can’t tackle front on even if we wanted to now, the suggestions of getting rugby coaches over to teach us how to do it again.
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If you read what I wrote again, you will see that I quite specifically stated that anyone who uses a raw free kick count as an indication of incorrect adjudication, is a victim of suboptimal neuron endowment.
What I didn’t do however, was specify that it only cut one way.
Let me know if you require any further clarification.
Was funking hilarious when it all blew up - the vfl sent some vic umires over to ”stem the rot” and we got an IMPROVEMENT in our free kick count.
This actually happened, the hilarity on our board was something to behold.
He thinks Margetts still umpires!
Really, is that all you've got? The shoulder of a bloke who is clearly reaching for the footy contacts the head of an opponent who goes lower and softer? Luke Parker would never play a game of footy because of suspension if Cotchin got rubbed out for that. Besides, all it did was deprive Anthony Miles of a premiership medallion.
And maybe take a look at the second half of that match and the soft free kicks to Tex and co which resulted in goals.
You got done by the better team on the day, just man up to it. Like we do whenever there's any mention of our 2018 prelim loss to the Pies - they were just better than us that night.
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Oh good so you admit that looking at raw free kick counts, such as in GFs where Vic teams play interstate teams, is meaningless and anyone who does so "is a victim of suboptimal neuron endowment".
Glad we cleared that up
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It's clearly vicbias, just like when Barry Hall was allowed to play in the 2005 GF or when Jason Cloke was rubbed out for the 2002 GF. Vicbias!
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He’s got a point..
We blow up about one single mistake by a goal umpire.. which, lets face it, is rare as hens teeth.. gow often do goal umpires get it wrong.. SFA..
But we ignore this massive rort in the system.
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So.. what you are saying is..Same thing happens when teams play away in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane and Sydney - in fact it's worse because those teams get 10 genuine home advantage games a year vs around 4-6 for Vic clubs.
In other words, sook harder
You’re happy with the current mediocrity/shitness of AFL umpiring?..
It probably all sorts itself out in the end?.. so lets not bother demanding it be made better?..
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Not at all. It needs to be sorted out and probably should have been 10 years ago.
What I'm saying is it doesn't advantage Victorian teams above any others, it's shit all round.
I know the table is irrelevant to the OP, but I always have a good laugh at the 'away' column in these types of lists. Like, Melbourne teams playing 'away games' at MCG/Telstra can be included in the same cohort as Eagles/Freo at those same venues. It's pretty funny.
Anyway, the OP was about a specific set of figures, so I won't further derail.
