Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[RUNVS]

You get gifted priority picks every year because the AFL knows the Swans can't afford to miss finals more than one season consecutively or they'll be back to the 1992 death rattle.

Tell me more about this "cheating"

I don't think you know what the academy is if you are comparing it to a priority pick. Also "every year" is a massive massive stretch. The Swans only have 4 academy players taken inside the first round, and that is over the course of over a decade at this point, all of which (other than Heeney as it was a different system back then) the Swans paid quite a bit for. They were not free.

 

[RUNVS]

Nah

Perhaps a better way of phrasing it is "you are deliberately missing the point"

 

[mick500]

how many would survive if all the Vic clubs pulled the pin?

No one's telling 1 Victorian team to suck it up or leave the comp let alone all Victorian clubs re; bad umpiring. Which this thread is about. My comment was in direct response to you saying leave the comp then.

 

[garlic munchers]

I would like to see it verified. But if it is true something needs to change.
WC and Sydney are the only non Victorian sides to win a flag since 2006 and you could argue both were lucky and less than a goal in both games could mean no flags was a statistical possibility.

With 18 teams and growing, the longer this goes on the less non Victorian side eyeballs will invest in this sport.

If the statistical trend continues that non-Vic teams given their numbers, aren't winning their share of GF's; shouldn't the AFL step in with policy changes to manufacture interstate victories given their own policy:




Or is the actual policy "working to ensure any team can win on any given day provided we don't count the most important day because we just signed the MCG deal"?

 

[WilloTree]

Nah

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Perhaps a better way of phrasing it is "you are deliberately missing the point"

Nah

 

[RUNVS]

Nah

Not exactly painting yourself in a particularly good light here.

 

[LoungeLizard]

No one's telling 1 Victorian team to suck it up or leave the comp let alone all Victorian clubs re; bad umpiring. Which this thread is about. My comment was in direct response to you saying leave the comp then.

Yeah ok, so why say it at all, I can't say for certain (no-one can) but I would guess the Vic clubs would be safer than most non-Vic clubs.
So, I am calling bullshit.

And maybe the reason people keep saying "leave if you don't like it" is because these threads are becoming more regular, they end up with the same posters saying the same crap over and over.

Myself, I wouldn't care 1 iota if the AFL went back to the old VFL and if it was ran by, let's say the SANFL and I was of the thought that it was SANFL bias as bad as some think in here, I would have left the league years ago.

 

[HarryBeef]

Wow Hawks getting shafted. We don't even get a home game advantage.

Umps probably resented having to go to Waverley.

 

[mick500]

Yeah ok, so why say it at all

And maybe the reason people keep saying "leave if you don't like it"

I told you why I said it. That's why. The response to us complaining about bias umpiring is "Leave then". It's not a very mature argument, and as you said the predictable response of "Victorian clubs couldn't survive without us" is almost a certainty.

these threads are becoming more regular, they end up with the same posters saying the same crap over and over.

Well I haven't posted in one of these threads before that I can recall, but I agree after participating in it, it is really just circling the drain. Not a lot to be gained from either side of the fence. No one's going to change their opinions.

but I would guess the Vic clubs would be safer than most non-Vic clubs.
So, I am calling bullshit.

Hard disagree. But as above , would you expect any different?

 

[LoungeLizard]

I told you why I said it. That's why. The response to us complaining about bias umpiring is "Leave then". It's not a very mature argument, and as you said the predictable response of "Victorian clubs couldn't survive without us" is almost a certainty.




Well I haven't posted in one of these threads before that I can recall, but I agree after participating in it, it is really just circling the drain. Not a lot to be gained from either side of the fence. No one's going to change their opinions.




Hard disagree. But as above , would you expect any different?

I'm not telling you to leave, I am saying I couldn't give a rats if you did leave.

And I'm also saying if this league was started by the SANFL and I was so sure they were biased as bad as some in here think, I would have left the league years ago to follow the state league.

The more I see these threads, I kinda hope the AFL do go the other way and get more biased toward Vic clubs so all the sooks do leave and we can just go back to state leagues.

 

[mick500]

I'm not telling you to leave, I am saying I couldn't give a rats if you did leave.

we don't appreciate comments from many non Vic Club supporters wanting several Victorian clubs to fold/merge/relocate like North Melbourne etc

Same but different?

I couldn't care less if a few Victorian clubs folded to make a more sustainable fair competition. But in reality the AFL won't lose another team , Melbourne based or interstate. Fitzroy is considered one of the biggest blemishes on the AFL and they won't make the same mistake again. But I would like it if they did. Along with gold coast. There's no point propping up teams that can't fund themselves. Ask Eddie about it. Pretty sure he's been very vocal about it being that Collingwood are one of the strongest teams off the ground in the comp.

Getting off topic now anyway, so I'll leave it there.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Same but different?

I couldn't care less if a few Victorian clubs folded to make a more sustainable fair competition. But in reality the AFL won't lose another team , Melbourne based or interstate. Fitzroy is considered one of the biggest blemishes on the AFL and they won't make the same mistake again. But I would like it if they did. Along with gold coast. There's no point propping up teams that can't fund themselves. Ask Eddie about it. Pretty sure he's been very vocal about it being that Collingwood are one of the strongest teams off the ground in the comp.

Getting off topic now anyway, so I'll leave it there.

Ok, get to it, get rid of all teams that can't prop themselves up.

Here is a hint:

The % of Vic V non-Vic will climb.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I notice it's not just HOW many free kicks, but WHEN they're given. Teams like Sydney, Collingwood and Geeling aways seem to get critical decisions go their way in the late stages when the game is in the balance.

 

[mick500]

I notice it's not just HOW many free kicks, but WHEN they're given. Teams like Sydney, Collingwood and Geeling aways seem to get critical decisions go their way in the late stages when the game is in the balance.

I think it's also a huge momentum changer. Coaches always say things like "If we could bottle momentum and sell it.. " etc. But if you get 3 or 4 free kicks in a row, that's 150 to 200m territory and a goal or two, that's a huge momentum swing/stopper.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think it's also a huge momentum changer. Coaches always say things like "If we could bottle momentum and sell it.. " etc. But if you get 3 or 4 free kicks in a row, that's 150 to 200m territory and a goal or two, that's a huge momentum swing/stopper.

Exactly, nothing pisses me off more. Of course as well all know the non goal paid last Saturday confused everyone and allowed the Swans to get it out. Like others I assumed it was an honest umpiring mistake, but now I think it was possible it was deliberate. Not making accusations but I don't believe there's zero bias/fixing in a sport involving so much money.

 

[Feraligatr]

I know my Geography isn't great, but I was sure Geelong is in Victoria.

I guess you learn something every day

We try to pretend it's not.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Not exactly painting yourself in a particularly good light here.

What, in a sooky troll thread whose contention is the umpiring is biased against interstate sides because #VICBIAS? Sorry, I'll try and lift the discourse from here on out.

 

[mick500]

Of course as well all know the non goal paid last Saturday confused everyone and allowed the Swans to get it out. Like others I assumed it was an honest umpiring mistake, but now I think it was possible it was deliberate.

I put it down as must have hit the padding from the first view they showed and turned it off cos I was annoyed, then I found out it was a goal and we were screwed it went to another level. Personally I would stop short of saying deliberate, mainly because you would have to be seriously dumb to cheat so blatantly but put it down to incompetence.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

I put it down as must have hit the padding from the first view they showed and turned it off cos I was annoyed, then I found out it was a goal and we were screwed it went to another level. Personally I would stop short of saying deliberate, mainly because you would have to be seriously dumb to cheat so blatantly but put it down to incompetence.

The umpiring is shithouse, everyone knows this. I think umpiring is swayed too easily by parochial crowds (in Vic and interstate). But to claim it is vicbias is delusional, Vic supporters feel exactly the same when we play interstate. I thought we were screwed by the umps when we played Port in Adelaide earlier this year but I don't think it was an anti-Melbourne/anti-Vic conspiracy.

 

[kranky al]

2016 is the killer.

 

[Caligo]

If we actually want a conversation about umpiring there was a superb table I saw a few years back of total free kick differential year on year between about 2018 and 2003. One club had a free kick differential of positive 1000. The next highest was fewer than 500.

The two clubs referred to were the two who are currently last and second last in 2023. So much for Vic bias.

 

[Oscarman]

And Derwayne Russell has the nerve to go on about "The noise of affirmation" any time he calls a game in Adelaide, yet never mentions it when interstate sides play in Melbourne.

Good luck winning a final as an interstate side.

That's just standard Fox Footy Vic Pride kicking in.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I put it down as must have hit the padding from the first view they showed and turned it off cos I was annoyed, then I found out it was a goal and we were screwed it went to another level. Personally I would stop short of saying deliberate, mainly because you would have to be seriously dumb to cheat so blatantly but put it down to incompetence.

Yeah with that view I figured it had clipped the padding...I will say in the ump's behalf, from his position the gap may not have been as clear (even though people keep saying he had the best view he may not have for this kick). I'm not saying it was cheating, but that there's a possibility. Maybe the Swans player hitting the padding at the same time made a noise which the ump mistook as the ball hitting the padding. But...it's more the fact he seemed so sure and didn't review it, when way more obvious ones go to the arc. Maybe just a genuine mistake, but they need to be kept accountable. The result can't be changed but the message has to be sent they can't get away with this anymore, it's not good enough. I hope the Crows get some kind of compo from this.

 

[Caligo]

2016 is the killer.

How exactly can a WC supporter post in this thread with a straight face? The history of WC and umpiring is quite simply unbelievable. Between 2003 and 2018 your club received 1000 more free kicks than you gave away.