Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[WilloTree]

Not at all. It needs to be sorted out and probably should have been 10 years ago.

What I'm saying is it doesn't advantage Victorian teams above any others, it's s**t all round.

You're missing the point again.

 

[kranky al]

Oh good so you admit that looking at raw free kick counts, such as in GFs where Vic teams play interstate teams, is meaningless and anyone who does so "is a victim of suboptimal neuron endowment".

Glad we cleared that up

Yes.

I dont know how much more specific I can get - just looking at a raw free kick count means nothing.

It can be 109-1 and still be fair. Pretty unlikely but if the team with the scomo end of the stick has a gameplan that counteracts their lack of leg speed by deliberately tripping players as they burst out of the pack and it causes injuries and they do that all game but win because their opposition can’t field a team by the end of a match.

You have the most lopsided free kick count in history - but you can’t look at the raw stat and say that’s unfair.

Extreme example - but you always have to look at a teams style and see why they do or don’t get awarded free kicks.

A free kick count can be 30-30 and it can be unfair af. Again the raw stat means nothing.

I dont know why people are finding this difficult.

 

[go_the_dockers]

For me one of the key things vic clubs do is lobby for change with the AFL.
Brisbane wins premierships, ask for change. Swans get tibbett, ask and get change.

Get a NGA system, but exclude WA and SA clubs.

If vic clubs win flags then nothing changes.
If non Vic clubs win flags, then rules change.

AFL reviewing northern and multicultural academies

The AFL is reviewing the northern states and multicultural academies that have been the source of club squabbling.

amp.theage.com.au

The Greater Western Sydney academy also was the subject of much complaint from Victorian clubs, who successfully lobbied for a reduced zone in football-friendly southern NSW, with the Giants losing the territory just north of the Murray around Albury.

The NGA, indeed, were introduced, in part, to pacify the clubs - led Eddie McGuire's Collingwood - who believed the Sydney and Queensland teams had been given too much of an advantage.

 

[Underarm]

For me one of the key things vic clubs do is lobby for change with the AFL.
Brisbane wins premierships, ask for change. Swans get tibbett, ask and get change.

Get a NGA system, but exclude WA and SA clubs.

If vic clubs win flags then nothing changes.

The Stand rule was brought in to curb Richmond's game style.

The deliberate behind rule was brought in to curb Hawthorn's game play.

 

[go_the_dockers]

The Stand rule was brought in to curb Richmond's game style.

The deliberate behind rule was brought in to curb Hawthorn's game play.

Haha

That is so minor compared to nga , or removing cola.

Ruck rules were changed to stop primus blocking the other ruck.

In reality they had minimal impact.

Father son has had 30 times the impact.

 

[Caligo]

The deliberate behind rule was brought in to curb Hawthorn's game play.

I am not even sure we did the deliberate that much more than other clubs at the time. The GF was just a bit of an outlier (from memory).

Not that I am complaining, I think the rule change materially improved the game. I just don't think it was a particularly large aspect of HFC play style.

 

[LoungeLizard]

For me one of the key things vic clubs do is lobby for change with the AFL.
Brisbane wins premierships, ask for change. Swans get tibbett, ask and get change.

Get a NGA system, but exclude WA and SA clubs.

If vic clubs win flags then nothing changes.
If non Vic clubs win flags, then rules change.

AFL reviewing northern and multicultural academies

The AFL is reviewing the northern states and multicultural academies that have been the source of club squabbling.

amp.theage.com.au

The Greater Western Sydney academy also was the subject of much complaint from Victorian clubs, who successfully lobbied for a reduced zone in football-friendly southern NSW, with the Giants losing the territory just north of the Murray around Albury.

The NGA, indeed, were introduced, in part, to pacify the clubs - led Eddie McGuire's Collingwood - who believed the Sydney and Queensland teams had been given too much of an advantage.

You do know you are crying Vic bias when Andrew McKay is a South Australian yeah?

 

[Underarm]

Haha

That is so minor compared to nga , or removing cola.

Ruck rules were changed to stop primus blocking the other ruck.

In reality they had minimal impact.

Father son has had 30 times the impact.

North melbourne got Tarryn Thomas as a top 10 NGA pick, soon after they restricted access in the top 40.

 

[Caligo]

Get a NGA system, but exclude WA and SA clubs.

Wait, what? Does Fremantle not get an NGA? Surely that isn't true.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Wait, what? Does Fremantle not get an NGA? Surely that isn't true.

SA and WA clubs were excluded from drafting indigenous players, then we were only allowed them to draft them after pick 40.


For the 1st year it only applied to Vic clubs, as SA and WA clubs wanted the same rules as Vic clubs (but this was obviously asking for too much)

NGA tweak to give SA, WA clubs greater indigenous access

Four clubs could get their wish for more access to indigenous players in metropolitan areas under Academy rules

www.afl.com.au

 

[go_the_dockers]

North melbourne got Tarryn Thomas as a top 10 NGA pick, soon after they restricted access in the top 40.

NGA tweak to give SA, WA clubs greater indigenous access

Four clubs could get their wish for more access to indigenous players in metropolitan areas under Academy rules

www.afl.com.au

but if Tarryn Thomas was born in WA or SA, he would never have been eligible.

This is my point.

 

[Caligo]

SA and WA clubs were excluded from drafting indigenous players, then we were only allowed them to draft them after pick 40.


For the 1st year it only applied to Vic clubs, as SA and WA clubs wanted the same rules as Vic clubs (but this was obviously asking for too much)

NGA tweak to give SA, WA clubs greater indigenous access

Four clubs could get their wish for more access to indigenous players in metropolitan areas under Academy rules

www.afl.com.au

Is it all sorted now? Is there still an imbalance? Because there is no reason Freo deserves to be treated worse than Hawthorn. We are both in football states and should have similar opportunities.

Clubs like GC aren't like us though and I have no issue with them having different academy rules.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Is it all sorted now? Is there still an imbalance? Because there is no reason Freo deserves to be treated worse than Hawthorn. We are both in football states and should have similar opportunities.

Clubs like GC aren't like us though and I have no issue with them having different academy rules.

It will be even now, when the players the clubs drafted are off the list. The rules are even now (both clubs get nothing), but the disadvantage lasts for 10 + years.


I looked at Collingwood with Quaynor, Daicos, Daicos, and Moore all selected outside of the draft and we have nothing.

Previously it was Geelong with Ablett, Scarlett, Hawkins and co. You can't just change the rules, you need to wait 10 years after you have changed the rules.

 

[Caligo]

It will be even now, when the players the clubs drafted are off the list. The rules are even now (both clubs get nothing), but the disadvantage lasts for 10 + years.


I looked at Collingwood with Quaynor, Daicos, Daicos, and Moore all selected outside of the draft and we have nothing.

Previously it was Geelong with Ablett, Scarlett, Hawkins and co. You can't just change the rules, you need to wait 10 years after you have changed the rules.

Wait can we slow down for a minute. Isn't your club one of the only ones to ever get a top 10 NGA basically for free? Liam Henry I think?

Surely you are one of the few clubs who can't whine about it. My club on the other hand has never gotten anything. A third rounder once (downie, who lasted only his rookie contract), and another guy who we didn't get to draft at all (mosquito).

I feel like we are having a discussion in a strange world where facts are alternative.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Wait can we slow down for a minute. Isn't your club one of the only ones to ever get a top 10 NGA basically for free? Liam Henry I think?

Surely you are one of the few clubs who can't whine about it. My club on the other hand has never gotten anything. A third rounder once (downie, who lasted only his rookie contract), and another guy who we didn't get to draft at all (mosquito).

I feel like we are having a discussion in a strange world where facts are alternative.

But, my biggest frustration with the NGA is not the outcome, it is the AFL giving Vic clubs an advantage 12 months before SA and WA clubs.



How many father son picks have you got?

One pick vs 5 or 10.

Tuck x2, McGuniess, you have 2 or 3 this year.

In Fremantles history we have had 1.

 

[Caligo]

But, my biggest frustration with the NGA is not the outcome, it is the AFL giving Vic clubs an advantage 12 months before SA and WA clubs.



How many father son picks have you got?

One pick vs 5 or 10.

Tuck x2, McGuniess, you have 2 or 3 this year.

In Fremantles history we have had 1.

Hawthorn have never gotten a single 1st round father son. Ever.

You are talking about the wrong club if you want to say we have benefited from F/S, NGA or anything else (except PP. We did get two elite PP almost 20 years ago).

I am just absolutely boggled you would bring up NGA as a Fremantle supporter.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

But, my biggest frustration with the NGA is not the outcome, it is the AFL giving Vic clubs an advantage 12 months before SA and WA clubs.



How many father son picks have you got?

One pick vs 5 or 10.

Tuck x2, McGuniess, you have 2 or 3 this year.

In Fremantles history we have had 1.

Jesse Motlop was in your NGA area right but you didn't have the points to be able to grab him (AFAIK)

 

[go_the_dockers]

Hawthorn have never gotten a single 1st round father son. Ever.

You are talking about the wrong club if you want to say we have benefited from F/S, NGA or anything else (except PP. We did get two elite PP almost 20 years ago).

I am just absolutely boggled you would bring up NGA as a Fremantle supporter.

Tuck x 2

 

[go_the_dockers]

Jesse Motlop was in your NGA area right but you didn't have the points to be able to grab him (AFAIK)

Picked up before pick 40.
Once again, if we were a Vic club, we could have got him after pick 20.

 

[Caligo]

Y

Tuck x 2

You mean Travis tuck? The third rounder who literally no club wanted and who played 20 games?

That is who you mean when you say hawthorn benefited from F/S? Really?

 

[The 747]

Hawthorn have never gotten a single 1st round father son. Ever.

You are talking about the wrong club if you want to say we have benefited from F/S, NGA or anything else (except PP. We did get two elite PP almost 20 years ago).

I am just absolutely boggled you would bring up NGA as a Fremantle supporter.

Welcome the land of the #VICBIAS people.

Free kicks are #VICBIAS! No, the Hawks get the worst deal but are the most successful club of the modern era.

FS is #VICBIAS! No, see evidence.

Well home ground advantage is #VICBIAS! No, see evidence it advantages the complainers.

Well NGA is #VICBIAS! No see evidence...

And on and on they go...

 

[Caligo]

Welcome the land of the #VICBIAS people.

Free kicks are #VICBIAS! No, the Hawks get the worst deal but are the most successful club of the modern era.

FS is #VICBIAS! No, see evidence.

Well home ground advantage is #VICBIAS! No, see evidence it advantages the complainers.

Well NGA is #VICBIAS! No see evidence...

And on and on they go...

I do think Vic clubs have had and do have advantages. So do Northern clubs. So do non Victorian footy state clubs.

There are all sorts of advantages and disadvantages to share around, and the AFL do a random half hearted attempt at balancing it out that is a complete mixed bag when taken as a whole.

Sure my club hasn't gotten much out of F/S and NGA, but we have drawn players through trading that other clubs may not have been as easily able to acquire, and we did get some great PP that helped us (well, really only one of our 2 PP helped us, but still).

You can look at an individual case, like say the compo that GAJ and Franklin recieved (being the 2 best players of the modern era) and say Geelong got a far far better deal, but if you choose a different example then it all looks very different.

It isnt Vic bias. It is confirmation bias.

 

[Underarm]

NGA tweak to give SA, WA clubs greater indigenous access

Four clubs could get their wish for more access to indigenous players in metropolitan areas under Academy rules

www.afl.com.au

but if Tarryn Thomas was born in WA or SA, he would never have been eligible.

This is my point.

I thought your point was that change is only made when it benefits non vic clubs.

Then it was only major changes.

Stop moving the goal posts.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I thought your point was that change is only made when it benefits non vic clubs.

Then it was only major changes.

Stop moving the goal posts.

Haha vic clubs get an advantage.

Then they adjust rules to limit the advantage, and that is an example of non Vic clubs having an advantage.

Haha haha

 

[The 747]

I do think Vic clubs have had and do have advantages. So do Northern clubs. So do non Victorian footy state clubs.

There are all sorts of advantages and disadvantages to share around, and the AFL do a random half hearted attempt at balancing it out that is a complete mixed bag when taken as a whole.

Sure my club hasn't gotten much out of F/S and NGA, but we have drawn players through trading that other clubs may not have been as easily able to acquire, and we did get some great PP that helped us (well, really only one of our 2 PP helped us, but still).

You can look at an individual case, like say the compo that GAJ and Franklin recieved (being the 2 best players of the modern era) and say Geelong got a far far better deal, but if you choose a different example then it all looks very different.

It isnt Vic bias. It is confirmation bias.

To add another one into the mix, Hawthorn had the best zone for some decades, that created a culture of success at the club which persisted right through the draft era.

Geelong do well out of f/s (have never had a NGA draftee of any note AFAIK) because they are a regional club and country folk tend to have kids earlier and more often. But a few decades back nobody wanted to live in Geelong, now it is popular (not Geelong but the coast).

Cats did get a better deal on Ablett than the Hawks on Franklin, but ours went to a new club not an established one. in any event those picks did very little for Geelong, who did Hawthorn draft with that pick 19?