Traded Tim Kelly [traded with #57 and future 3rd to West Coast for #14, #24, #33 and future 1st]

[CatToTheFuture]

Based on a realistic DVI, and expectations of future pick value at the time of trade, here are the four most relevant recent trades:

Dangerfield. 25. Uncontracted. Slightly better player. 1642 points.

Treloar. 22. Uncontracted. Worse player. 1981 points.

Neale. 25. Contracted. Similar ability. 1961 points.

Shiel. 25. Contracted. Worse player. 2040 points.

Kelly. 25. Uncontracted. 1785 points (assuming 14 and future first).

This is the dvi:

View attachment 759027

That makes sense, I'll just call the swans and let them know we're swapping for their pick 5 and then all sorted. Can't believe the fuss over nothing.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

They have a F/S who apparently dominated the combine. Finn McGinness. Debatable that he’s top 10 but could attract an early bid

He wont. Twomey is a good writer but has a strong vic metro bias.

 

[Suma Magic]

Points dont accurately reflect how much more valuable higher picks are than lower ones. I get where you are going but i think theres too big a flaw in it.

They do in this DVI

 

[Pure_Ownage]

They do in this DVI

I think the top 5 picks need a much higher points value than that but each to their own.

 

[Shadow89]

They do in this DVI

It's well thought out, and points to the fact that 14, 24 and future 1st with second coming back would be about the right equivalent (I would think). Treloar is the most similar one, IMO.

 

[Peel67skin]

Really enjoy watching Eagles and Cat fight it out for Kelly, GCS and other club just observed and enjoy. GCS won't pick Kelly but if under extreme circumstances Eagles can offer plenty to Melbourne to get Pick 3 in ND draft.

 

[Warhorse]

Based on a realistic DVI, and expectations of future pick value at the time of trade, here are the four most relevant recent trades:

Dangerfield. 25. Uncontracted. Slightly better player. 1642 points.

Treloar. 22. Uncontracted. Worse player. 1981 points.

Neale. 25. Contracted. Similar ability. 1961 points.

Shiel. 25. Contracted. Worse player. 2040 points.

Kelly. 25. Uncontracted. 1785 points (assuming 14 and future first).

This is the dvi:

View attachment 759027

Doesn't take into account the strength of last year's draft. Close to impossible to get a high pick

 

[Suma Magic]

I think the top 5 picks need a much higher points value than that but each to their own.

Yeah maybe. It’s funny that the one I used values top 5 picks significantly higher than the actual afl one, and yet it still isn’t high enough. Shows how out of whack the AFL’s DVI is.

 

[Forward Press]

Yeah maybe. It’s funny that the one I used values top 5 picks significantly higher than the actual afl one, and yet it still isn’t high enough. Shows how out of whack the AFL’s DVI is.

The points thing is simply for academy purposes to try and ensure some kind of fair price is paid.

Applying them to situations where a trade wasn't for academy picks is hazardous. Interesting, but inaccurate.

 

[Suma Magic]

The points thing is simply for academy purposes to try and ensure some kind of fair price is paid.

Applying them to situations where a trade wasn't for academy picks is hazardous. Interesting, but inaccurate.

The only way to get an accurate DVI is to align it to the real value of pick for pick trades.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Really enjoy watching Eagles and Cat fight it out for Kelly, GCS and other club just observed and enjoy. GCS won't pick Kelly but if under extreme circumstances Eagles can offer plenty to Melbourne to get Pick 3 in ND draft.

You need to understand that this debate between Eagles and Cats posters may very well determine what happens in the Kelly trade.

 

[The 747]

You need to understand that this debate between Eagles and Cats posters may very well determine what happens in the Kelly trade.

Three firsts

 

[Shadow89]

Doesn't take into account the strength of last year's draft. Close to impossible to get a high pick

To be fair though, last year's draft was the first 'superdraft' in a decade. This year's draft more closely resembles the majority of drafts. Few high end players, with a bunch of hit and misses throughout.

 

[Seeds]

You are dreaming, but carry on. Opposition teams look to Danger, then Selllwood. You only started to win when Sellwood went back to the middle. Ego is Dangers biggest problem

Regardless - Kelly isn't a Bont, etc, etc, etc

In 2020 Kelly will fit in with Shuey and Yoe allowing others to play less demanding and more appropriate roles. For example Gaff more time on the wing. I know our MC are also looking at TK on the wing but they want to see Brander there more as well. This suggests a rotation.

Geelong can please themselves.

Selwood was a wingman and flanker this year who occassionally rotated through the middle. You have just shown you did not watch geelong at all this year. Not once did selwood recieve a tag the entire year. Kelly plenty of times.

Kelly will be your best midfielder and will go up a level further with a decent ruckman to rove to. He is not a wingman as his biggest weakness is his lack of pace and his biggest strength is breaking away from a pack with good acceleration and amazing evasive abilities. Centre clearance gun.

 

[iameviljez]

Based on a realistic DVI, and expectations of future pick value at the time of trade, here are the four most relevant recent trades:

Dangerfield. 25. Uncontracted. Slightly better player. 1642 points.

Treloar. 22. Uncontracted. Worse player. 1981 points.

Neale. 25. Contracted. Similar ability. 1961 points.

Shiel. 25. Contracted. Worse player. 2040 points.

Kelly. 25. Uncontracted. 1785 points (assuming 14 and future first).

So many variables, though - including how good a negotiator you are/the other team is, whether there is any realistic competition for the signature, what picks the other team has access to...

 

[Forward Press]

Three firsts

Pick 14, Chris Masten, and a half-eaten large pack of Smiths crisps, salt and vinegar flavour.

 

[Shadow89]

Really enjoy watching Eagles and Cat fight it out for Kelly, GCS and other club just observed and enjoy. GCS won't pick Kelly but if under extreme circumstances Eagles can offer plenty to Melbourne to get Pick 3 in ND draft.

I actually don't understand the purpose of this comment? Doesn't really offer anything at all. Just sounds like you're bragging...which is an odd thing to do given the position you guys have found yourselves in...

 

[Warhorse]

In fact, I personally would rather 13 and 22 than pick 6 from Fremantle. The quality between 6 and 13 is close this year. Last year there was a huge gap

 

[Shadow89]

Pick 14, Chris Masten, and a half-eaten large pack of Smiths crisps, salt and vinegar flavour.

I'd rather 14 and a whole pack of s+v chips...hold the Masten.

 

[The 747]

Pick 14, Chris Masten, and a half-eaten large pack of Smiths crisps, salt and vinegar flavour.

But you don't have Masten anymore to trade. Salt and vinegar yes though. Samboy are good but a little over salted.

 

[iameviljez]

You can't really compare Judd considering the trade included Kennedy and how Kennedy was rated at the time is unclear.

Well, also given that the Judd trade was over a decade ago, too... and that Carlton had far more to trade with.

 

[Bestbird]

The points thing is simply for academy purposes to try and ensure some kind of fair price is paid.

Applying them to situations where a trade wasn't for academy picks is hazardous. Interesting, but inaccurate.

Well there are 2 examples when the point allocation was similar regarding early draft pick

2014 Adelaide Geelong
14 35 to 10 47
2013 Wce Collingwood
11 31 49 to 6 44

 

[Peel67skin]

I actually don't understand the purpose of this comment? Doesn't really offer anything at all. Just sounds like you're bragging...which is an odd thing to do given the position you guys have found yourselves in...

My purpose is to inform you that repeat opinion is still the same. Why not wait until a deal get done and then comment. Arguing for the sick of argue won't get the deal done.

 

[Seeds]

Based on a realistic DVI, and expectations of future pick value at the time of trade, here are the four most relevant recent trades:

Dangerfield. 25. Uncontracted. Slightly better player. 1642 points.

Treloar. 22. Uncontracted. Worse player. 1981 points.

Neale. 25. Contracted. Similar ability. 1961 points.

Shiel. 25. Contracted. Worse player. 2040 points.

Kelly. 25. Uncontracted. 1785 points (assuming 14 and future first).

This is the dvi:

View attachment 759027

Those points have zero influence on trade value.

 

[iameviljez]

Really enjoy watching Eagles and Cat fight it out for Kelly, GCS and other club just observed and enjoy. GCS won't pick Kelly but if under extreme circumstances Eagles can offer plenty to Melbourne to get Pick 3 in ND draft.

Huh? Eagles don't have the picks for that, and no player from the Eagles would want to go to Melbourne after the season they have had.