List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[jackcass]

It's time they let clubs trade players on draft night. It annoys me that we can't match a Daicos bid and THEN trade a player for a first or second round pick.

Currently we'd have to trade a player for a future pick, match a bid and then try and trade that future pick back into the draft. Guaranteed to be burned.

It’s not fantasy footy, there are real people involved.

 

[TakingThePies]

It's time they let clubs trade players on draft night. It annoys me that we can't match a Daicos bid and THEN trade a player for a first or second round pick.

Currently we'd have to trade a player for a future pick, match a bid and then try and trade that future pick back into the draft. Guaranteed to be burned.

Probably stick to supercoach mate haha.

 

[Kappa]

we would need to finish last otherwise we get no benefit finishing second last and so on.

That's assuming Daicos gets bid on pick 1, he there's every chance he doesn't.

 

[sr36]

I think we are arguing slightly different things here. I agree individual awards don’t win flags but I am looking at what the best metric is to judge the value of draft picks.

Flags doesn’t really make sense because all the team variables involved render it meaningless. To me looking at the averages of when a first game is played, how many games are played, how often individual awards are won on average etc. All that’s doing is trying to give you a relative value of one draft pick number v another based on the history of those picks. It’s not a method for assessing how to build a successful team.

If you believe you can attach a relative value to draft picks, which is pretty clear you can, then trying to build a successful team using relatively low value draft picks to assemble
your list compared to the vast majority of your opposition sides is a big ask.

As you say there are other things you have to do to create success other than have highly rated recruits. But if you are poorly off in the highly rated recruit numbers you have put yourself behind the 8 ball in the list build stakes and will have to outperform your opposition in the other metrics required, coaching, development, culture etc just to catch up let alone go past them.

This is where we are in trouble in my opinion and it’s why we are likely to need all the top end talent we can access in the nest few drafts.

I don't think there's a correct answer. Games played data is skewed by the fact that crap teams get the early picks. How many games would Sam Day have played if he went to a good team.

The Cats built a dynasty. Selwood and Bartel were top 10 picks, but the rest weren't.

I think it basically comes down to a combination of good recruiting from all ranges of the draft and good coaching and development. If you're relying on hits just from your one allocated first round selection, you're going to be stuffed.

I don't think any team has particularly benefitted from bottoming out and getting a few years of 1 early first round selections. They used to when less than 6 wins got you an additional early first round selection.

 

[jackcass]

I don't think there's a correct answer. Games played data is skewed by the fact that crap teams get the early picks. How many games would Sam Day have played if he went to a good team.

The Cats built a dynasty. Selwood and Bartel were top 10 picks, but the rest weren't.

I think it basically comes down to a combination of good recruiting from all ranges of the draft and good coaching and development. If you're relying on hits just from your one allocated first round selection, you're going to be stuffed.

I don't think any team has particularly benefitted from bottoming out and getting a few years of 1 early first round selections. They used to when less than 6 wins got you an additional early first round selection.

Cats data further skewed by FS selection criteria back then. Hawkins and GAJr (for example) taken with 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[unplugged]

If players want to stay at their current club they can take unders and add a "no trade cause" like the NBA. Otherwise they can take the big pay day and suck it up if they are traded. It's a professional sport where the players earn over 4 times the average salary of other Australians. You can guarantee that if the current players weren't happy with this that there would be plenty lining up to take their job.

This is a good take, I reckon.

 

[sr36]

Cats data further skewed by FS selection criteria back then. Hawkins and GAJr (for example) taken with 2nd and 3rd round picks.and

Hawkins definitely, but he only really made a cameo at the very end of their domination. I don't think Gaz was in line to be an early choice. Scarlett too, but he also wasn't likely to go early either.

 

[Drought Break]

We all know hindsight is a wonderful thing. I didn’t think we got enough for our first rounder at the time, which was undoubtably going to be a top 8-10 pick anyway

But I never thought we would be this bad, even with Treloar and Stephenson out the door.

But let’s be honest when the club made the trade, no one knew Moore, Howe, Adams, Elliot and Daicos would miss significant parts of the season, to a lesser extent now Pendlebury, although I don’t really consider 4 games missed as significant.

If we finish last, yeah it’s clearly a sh*t result, there’s no other way around it. But as a general rule, the AFL media and supporters pump up the draft and the value of draft picks more than they should, so I don’t think it’s as big as a missed opportunity as it’s made out.

yes but we have had previews for years in a row where the first 4 you mentioned have missed significant games through injury. Comes as no surprise that once again they have had injury interrupted year.

 

[Scribe26]

I don't think there's a correct answer. Games played data is skewed by the fact that crap teams get the early picks. How many games would Sam Day have played if he went to a good team.

The Cats built a dynasty. Selwood and Bartel were top 10 picks, but the rest weren't.

I think it basically comes down to a combination of good recruiting from all ranges of the draft and good coaching and development. If you're relying on hits just from your one allocated first round selection, you're going to be stuffed.

I don't think any team has particularly benefitted from bottoming out and getting a few years of 1 early first round selections. They used to when less than 6 wins got you an additional early first round selection.

Agree with every word of this.

Nailing your first rounders is, of course, important.

But in a sport in which a premiership side will utilise anywhere between 30-35 list players during the season in a premiership tilt, it's one very small piece of the puzzle.

Carlton has had FIVE number one picks over the last 20 years (not to mention a host of top 10s in addition) and it's resulted in two finals series and one solitary victory in September.

- Developing young talent to reach its full potential
- Recruiting players that suit your game style
- Putting players in a position to maximise their talent
- Making the most of your rookie list
- Depth of talent and healthy competition for spots
- Strong leadership and motivation to succeed

This is what helps a club compete for flags.

 

[TW Sherrin]

I don't think there's a correct answer. Games played data is skewed by the fact that crap teams get the early picks. How many games would Sam Day have played if he went to a good team.

The Cats built a dynasty. Selwood and Bartel were top 10 picks, but the rest weren't.

I think it basically comes down to a combination of good recruiting from all ranges of the draft and good coaching and development. If you're relying on hits just from your one allocated first round selection, you're going to be stuffed.

I don't think any team has particularly benefitted from bottoming out and getting a few years of 1 early first round selections. They used to when less than 6 wins got you an additional early first round selection.

their dynasty was built on father sons just like the dogs 2016 flag.

 

[Gymnorhina tibic]

their dynasty was built on father sons just like the dogs 2016 flag.

Daicos, Daicos, Moore, Kelly, Brown, Brown. I feel a dynasty coming!

 

[sr36]

their dynasty was built on father sons just like the dogs 2016 flag.

Next year, we should be in a similar father son position to them.

Hopefully we can add a similar group through the draft over a three draft period to Bartel, Corey, Kelly, Enright, Chapman, Johnson, Selwood, Ling, Taylor.

 

[Kappa]

If ladder positions stay as they are we virtually gave Treloar to the bulldogs for free AND had to pay a significant portion of his salary over 5 years.

the club has utterly failed us and the supporters will be feeling this pain over the next 5 years.

and if we lose to hawthorn we’ve potentially thrown away Horne plus Daicos in this draft.

 

[Masked Magician]

This was the strategic thinking behind trading out 2021 1st round pick/options we had to weight up.

1. Trade out our 2021 1st for 2 picks and players in 2020 Draft (Poulter + McMahon). Get them in early and get an extra year of development.

2. Hold onto our pick and hope it falls before a likely Daicos Bid (need to finish last)

3. Hold onto pick and trade it for a player in the 2021 trade period

4. Hold onto pick and trade it for a pick or picks either in 2021 or 2022

I believe we chose option 1 for the following reasons.

- We didn't believe we would finish last in 2021 and therefore holding onto the pick would be absorbed by a ND bid.
- The argument we could trade the pick for a player is flawed as likely the player we'd be trading for we couldn't attract due to our cap situation.
- We could however trade the pick if we held onto it for a future 1st round pick but the likely return wouldn't be as valuable as our 21 1st rounder. Which bottom 6 club would trade their future first 22 pick for our 21 pick? We'd lose all bargaining power and would need to find a buyer.
- We get 2 years of Development into 2 players in 2021 and 2022 before even turning that pick into a player.

So in summary, the strategy was and is okay unless one thing happens, we finish last in 2021 which is a real possibility. If this doesn't happen, I still believe it was an okay trade from our perspective.

 

[Masked Magician]

Would anyone be up for the following trade?

On draft night, right after we match a bid for Daicos, assuming it comes before a Darcy Bid.

Trade our future 1st 2022 pick (sell it as a pick in the 1-4 range) for Doggies 2021 1st and 2022 1st?

Back ourselves in 2022 to have a bottom 6 draw and move up the ladder Pick 6-10 for their pick 14-18 this year and pick 10-18 next year?

 

[Soups]

Would anyone be up for the following trade?

On draft night, right after we match a bid for Daicos, assuming it comes before a Darcy Bid.

Trade our future 1st 2022 pick (sell it as a pick in the 1-4 range) for Doggies 2021 1st and 2022 1st?

Back ourselves in 2022 to have a bottom 6 draw and move up the ladder Pick 6-10 for their pick 14-18 this year and pick 10-18 next year?

Honestly we should be banned for trading any more future first rounders.

 

[TradeDraft]

David King always want to put the boot in. He's a w***er.

Can't Stand Him

 

[TradeDraft]

Given i don't understand how the draft works exactly. What would it take to get another one or two top 10 picks.

Trading Sidebottom, Elliot and Lynch perhaps?
Is that possible?

Trading our Best Players

 

[MyManLynch]

If ladder positions stay as they are we virtually gave Treloar to the bulldogs for free AND had to pay a significant portion of his salary over 5 years.

the club has utterly failed us and the supporters will be feeling this pain over the next 5 years.

and if we lose to hawthorn we’ve potentially thrown away Horne plus Daicos in this draft.

We haven’t thrown away Daicos…he is still ours if we select him (match bid)

 

[TradeDraft]

This was the strategic thinking behind trading out 2021 1st round pick/options we had to weight up.

1. Trade out our 2021 1st for 2 picks and players in 2020 Draft (Poulter + McMahon). Get them in early and get an extra year of development.

2. Hold onto our pick and hope it falls before a likely Daicos Bid (need to finish last)

3. Hold onto pick and trade it for a player in the 2021 trade period

4. Hold onto pick and trade it for a pick or picks either in 2021 or 2022

I believe we chose option 1 for the following reasons.

- We didn't believe we would finish last in 2021 and therefore holding onto the pick would be absorbed by a ND bid.
- The argument we could trade the pick for a player is flawed as likely the player we'd be trading for we couldn't attract due to our cap situation.
- We could however trade the pick if we held onto it for a future 1st round pick but the likely return wouldn't be as valuable as our 21 1st rounder. Which bottom 6 club would trade their future first 22 pick for our 21 pick? We'd lose all bargaining power and would need to find a buyer.
- We get 2 years of Development into 2 players in 2021 and 2022 before even turning that pick into a player.

So in summary, the strategy was and is okay unless one thing happens, we finish last in 2021 which is a real possibility. If this doesn't happen, I still believe it was an okay trade from our perspective.

Good Summary.

As long we don't fall any futher down the ladder or better yet Move Up then we won't look too bad

 

[Robroy22]

Daicos, Daicos, Moore, Kelly, Brown, Brown. I feel a dynasty coming!

And only one KP player amongst em!

 

[Football God]

Trade future 1st 2022 and 3rd rd 2022 to GWS when they’re on the clock for their 1st pick we gave them and their future 3rd.
(I’ve watched Draft Day too much.)

 

[Apex36]

We haven’t thrown away Daicos…he is still ours if we select him (match bid)

You misunderstood what he meant.

 

[Kappa]

We haven’t thrown away Daicos…he is still ours if we select him (match bid)

We've thrown away the chance to get Horne+Daicos is what I meant.

Strong chance we finish last now if we lose to hawthorn

 

[Go Woods]

Does David F King have any idea what we did with our 1st round pick we traded last national draft night? He is crapping on that we have made the biggest blunder of all time basically by trading our 2021 1st?
Caleb Poulter and Liam McMahon will pay dividends long term for that trade. He should really do his homework.