Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Dog 36]

So then how can you judge our midfields performance at stoppages with statistics that have other contributing factors?

Those two examples tell us you can’t.

Unless you want to completely ignore clearance statistics and only judge things on what you see with your own eyes?

Personally, I’d be concerned if our coaches took that path.

With the amount of cameras, footage and editing a club has access to will blow our minds.

Most clubs have a stoppage coach, they are full time so I am sure they will have the time to review all they need to make up their own minds and see exactly what’s happening.

One club I know uses it’s own statisticians and what data they are to gather is very focused and outlined strictly. These statisticians are mathematicians and physics students and they confirm the stats after reviewing the game and they even do some modelling on patterns under the guide of a full time mathematical stats person.

This club rarely uses stats that are for the media and competitions.

No you just don’t rely eye test but you have access to confirm what your eye is telling you.

 

[doggies ftw]

I like inside 50 ratio (for / conceded) as one metric for the midfield.

Agree with Charlie anything that involves scoring isn't a good metric for the midfield as it takes other lines into account.

Yeah but we’re looking at law of avgs here - of course there will be outliers, no stats are perfect they’re just that - stats.

If you lace out someone inside 50 off an effective clearance they’ll score more often than a hack kick out of a stoppage, true?

Therefore for the most part score % for & against as well as clearance differential, effective clearance differential will usuallyyyy give you a much stronger overall view of your midfields performance - compared to just first possession/clearance numbers which really tell you nothing. Even inside 50s is very vague, we know first hand winning the inside 50 count every week doesn’t mean we win every game, but it’s definitely another stat that can be thrown into the mix to round out the picture

ie you have a high inside 50 from clearance rate but a low score % either your forwards are shit or your entries are shit - either way you’ve got much more info than “high clearance numbers = best midfield”

Our midfield exists to generate (and limit) scores from clearances, so it makes sense to at least take these stats into account - again I’m not saying it’s definite, but law of avgs means itll be pretty close to the mark

 

[dergert]

Kenneth Hinkley

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Kenneth Hinkley

?

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

At this point in time Tim runs rings around basically every ruck offensively (when he isn’t recovering from concussion). His counting stats compared to other rucks around the ground are looking great because he’s effectively a very tall midfielder.

Where it gets interesting is how Tim stacks up defensively and what he does or doesn’t do to help out on that end. We know our midfield can leak goals and can have a hard time stopping other groups from getting a run on (not unique to us with 6-6-6, but possibly more vulnerable?). I guess conventional wisdom would say a more old school ruck could force repeat stoppages/lay hard tackles to slow momentum, and that certainly isn’t Tim’s game. If anything he tends to run forward to receive a handball when he maybe shouldn’t.

On the other hand maybe it doesn’t matter who our ruck is if it’s our midfield setup/group that’s killing us defensively.

Would definitely be interesting to see the teams stats defensively this year and last with Tim in the middle compared to Martin or Sweet (or other teams and rucks). We know he’s much better offensively, but what if our midfield and backline would be perform better as a team with better defensive ruckwork? Or maybe he’s not the issue in there and it’s just our perception of him while blame lies elsewhere.

Of course our midfield has for the most part performed quite well the last two years, but you could play Schache as our main ruck against s**t teams and by midfield talent alone we still roll them.

Interesting points you bring up.
It makes me think back to the days of Scotty Wynd where he would take the centre ruck duties, drop back to centre half back and basically mark every opposition forward entry and then handball off to the half backs who could kick well.
In this day and age that probably doesn't fit with the defensive grid systems but it worked bloody well back then.
Imagine having English playing as the backline sweeper. He can run like a midfielder and unlike Wynd he can kick like one.
It just dawned on me that that is probably what they are hoping Darcy will become...
Forget I wrote this post i just answered my own question

 

[Smiley Boy]

How do we fit in Barrass, Lobb & Jones ?

Dunkley leaving helps but is that enough ?

Dunkley, Hunter and possible shock retirements will free up some space

 

[Angak]

The other 2 on good money whose positions look tenuous are Hunter and JJ

Hunter still has two years left on his contract. No team in thier right mind will take him with all his issues. How do we get him off our books ?

 

[HK_Bulldog]

Interesting points you bring up.
It makes me think back to the days of Scotty Wynd where he would take the centre ruck duties, drop back to centre half back and basically mark every opposition forward entry and then handball off to the half backs who could kick well.
In this day and age that probably doesn't fit with the defensive grid systems but it worked bloody well back then.
Imagine having English playing as the backline sweeper. He can run like a midfielder and unlike Wynd he can kick like one.
It just dawned on me that that is probably what they are hoping Darcy will become...
Forget I wrote this post i just answered my own question

Darcy is only in the backline for work experience and team balance. He’ll be ruck forward as soon as the timing is right.

 

[CarnTheScray]

English is in AA discussions and missed half the season any thought of trading him now is ridiculous he has broken out and will only get better

Lol what?

 

[dergert]

SEN WA reporting that Logue is likely to leave freo.

I wonder where he goes?

 

[Bulldogs85]

SEN WA reporting that Logue is likely to leave freo.

I wonder where he goes?

Hopefully it’s us

 

[ScragCity]

I'm not a huge fan of "eye tests." Eyes are notoriously unreliable. Anyone familiar with Müller-Lyer and the invisible gorilla experiments should know that.

 

[Testekill]

Hopefully it’s us

Fingers crossed. A defender doesn't have to be 200cms to match up on a tall forward, Logue is 193cms and solidly built enough to use it.

 

[ScragCity]

Fingers crossed. A defender doesn't have to be 200cms to match up on a tall forward, Logue is 193cms and solidly built enough to use it.

Are you saying that it's not so important how many centimetres you've got, and that how you use them is what really matters?

 

[Northernsoul74]

SEN WA reporting that Logue is likely to leave freo.

I wonder where he goes?

Surely we’re at least asking the question?

 

[Pugz89]

We are right into Barrass and a massive chance.. Eagles also have big cap issues watch this space folks!

How the fk do they have massive cap issues? Genuine stud hanging up the boots and a bottom two list. Crazy stuff.

 

[Angak]

Dunkley, Hunter and possible shock retirements will free up some space

Can you explain to me how we get hunter off our books with two years left on his contract ?

 

[Doggy]

How the fk do they have massive cap issues? Genuine stud hanging up the boots and a bottom two list. Crazy stuff.

They likely don't

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Most of West Coast's salary squeeze is surely due to older players. Gaff, Shuey, McGovern, Nic Nat, Yoe. They'd be crazy to let Barrass go but keep those blokes on a list that needs a full rebuild.

Can't see it happening. Happy to be proven wrong (very happy).

They are not going to get two first round picks for any of those players though. They are rebuilding, three firsts is a hell of a good start.

 

[CDBulldog]

English: 0.8 Goals, 3.1 150, 6.2 SI, 18 Disposals, 75% DE, 3.8 Intercept possessions, 5.6 Marks, 4.4 clearances and 23.6 hitouts
Cameron: 1 Goal, 1.4 150, 3.7 SI, 13 Disposals, 66% DE, 3 intercept possessions, 4.1 Marks, 2.2 clearances 17.5 hitouts
Gawn: 0.6 Goals, 3.9 150, 5.9 SI, 20 Disposals, 59% DE, 3.5 intercept possessions, 5.7 Marks, 4.8 clearances 26.5 hitouts
Darcy: 0.6 Goals, 2.3 150, 5.6 SI, 14 Disposals, 70% DE, 2.6 intercept possessions, 2.7 Marks, 24.4 clearances 33.2 hit outs

Gawn is the only one having greater impact around the ground however his disposal is woeful the other 2 to are not even close to Tim.

I’ll state my view on Tim once again - Tim will be close to if not the best player in the comp in a 2-3 years. Any notion of trading him is madness.

 

[flipper83]

Are you saying that it's not so important how many centimetres you've got, and that how you use them is what really matters?

Everyone knows girth is more important than length!

 

[dergert]

Surely we’re at least asking the question?

Massive task getting a WA native to change states.

He'd suit us to a tee.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I love Bont too but he’s been a long way off his best this year. I’d be quite surprised if he makes it into the side, or even the squad.

He’ll probably get in on reputation . He’s still been very good though.

 

[Scragger77]

Logue would be more gettable than Barrass and come cheaper. I just can’t see Barrass coming to us noting he is being touted as a future captain. Time will tell I suppose.

 

[ScragCity]

I can't see Barrass not joining us.