Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dogwatch]

Don't feel like we are in a position to overpay for a KPP. So hopefully he doesn't go too high as we do need to restock our midfield in the upcoming draft, and with 2x 1sts this year is a great opportunity to do so

Agree with the need to replenish the midfield with high-end picks.

Another point is that even if there was a relatively early bid for him at say pick#25 that's only around 175 points more than using a later pick to draft him (say #40) after the 20% discount. You can make that difference up with pick #57 (a fourth round pick).*

Given the conjuring that Sam Power has had to do the last few years getting Marra and Darcy over the line at #1 and #2 it should be a breeze.

* quick, unaudited mental arithmetic

 

[dergert]

I watched most of the young guns match on the weekend and imo the hype has been a little over the top.
I don't want to knock a young fella but I think a whole lot still has to play out.

I'm more concerned about revenge bids etc.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

I watched most of the young guns match on the weekend and imo the hype has been a little over the top.
I don't want to knock a young fella but I think a whole lot still has to play out.

I'm more concerned about revenge bids etc.

tbh I'm not really worried about anything of the sort. It was a genuine factor in JUH and Darcy bids (clubs bidding to **** us around, knowing we'd match) because in their drafts, we'd set ourselves up with the full intention of matching bids given we didn't hold picks anywhere near early enough to get a pick in before the bid was due. This year, Croft is not really currently rated anywhere near the top 30 or so players.

If we enter the draft holding two first rounders, and a club was to place an unnecessarily early bid, there's a very, very good chance we'd pass and take higher rated talent with our live picks, leaving that club with a kid they may not have rated that high. It's for that reason that I don't expect any stupidly early bids on Croft, as his situation, and our current draft hand, are so different from the JUH and Darcy years.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

As much as I think there is cause for concern in some aspects of our list build, I don't actually think we are lacking too much, and think we (should) have assets at our disposal that could see it turn relatively quickly with some astute moves.

I'm going to give an absolute fairytale land scenario that obviously won't happen - but in isolation, none of the moves are particularly impossible or unrealistic IMO. As much as it's not all gonna happen in one go, I think squishing it into a one year hypothetical demonstrates just how much improvement we see from a relatively small number of moves.

If we were to do it in one year, the idea would be to grab both Doedee and McKay via FA, trade one of our mid-late firsts for Bergman, use the other first rounder on a clearance mid, and then match Lual somewhere post-40 (or bring a future first forward somewhere to take him/someone else).

That would leave us with something like:

FB: Doedee - McKay - Richards
HB: Johannisen - Jones - Dale

C: Baker - Bontempelli - Bergman

HF: B Smith - JUH - Lobb
FF: Weightman - Naughton - Jones

R: English - Liberatore - Treloar

I: Macrae - Daniel - Williams - Duryea
S: Scott

Then waiting in the wings to replace some of the older crew: Busslinger (Jones), Darcy (Lobb), 1st round clearance mid (Libba), Cleary (Duryea), Lual (Treloar), high hopes from other players like Bedendo, Clarke and O'Donnell, and some competent, mature depth in some of Gardner, Crozier, West, McLean, Khamis, McNeil, Vandermeer, etc.

As I said, this exact scenario won't happen. But gee, with three mature, solid players in there and a couple of extra 18 year olds, the list looks in so much better shape. IMO, the benefit of pushing our 18-22 players down to 23-27 would be astronomical.

I reckon we should be bold this year. We've got trade assets, we should have cap space - let's make some big plays.

 

[LittleG]

tbh I'm not really worried about anything of the sort. It was a genuine factor in JUH and Darcy bids (clubs bidding to * us around, knowing we'd match) because in their drafts, we'd set ourselves up with the full intention of matching bids given we didn't hold picks anywhere near early enough to get a pick in before the bid was due. This year, Croft is not really currently rated anywhere near the top 30 or so players.

If we enter the draft holding two first rounders, and a club was to place an unnecessarily early bid, there's a very, very good chance we'd pass and take higher rated talent with our live picks, leaving that club with a kid they may not have rated that high. It's for that reason that I don't expect any stupidly early bids on Croft, as his situation, and our current draft hand, are so different from the JUH and Darcy years.

At this stage our academy player Lual is more likely to attract a bid before Croft. IF we want him, we will have to draft him ourselves. We would know his personality best and IF he fits our team, I expect he will be someone we pick 20-25 in the draft.

 

[TiAn_]

tbh I'm not really worried about anything of the sort. It was a genuine factor in JUH and Darcy bids (clubs bidding to * us around, knowing we'd match) because in their drafts, we'd set ourselves up with the full intention of matching bids given we didn't hold picks anywhere near early enough to get a pick in before the bid was due. This year, Croft is not really currently rated anywhere near the top 30 or so players.

If we enter the draft holding two first rounders, and a club was to place an unnecessarily early bid, there's a very, very good chance we'd pass and take higher rated talent with our live picks, leaving that club with a kid they may not have rated that high. It's for that reason that I don't expect any stupidly early bids on Croft, as his situation, and our current draft hand, are so different from the JUH and Darcy years.

Yeah, they were both considered top shelf prospects and teams knew there was no chance we wouldn’t match, whatever the bid. Even before we accumulated points. Croft isn’t on that level and arguably isn’t even a need. Someone might try and do what Sydney did to GWS with Rowston though, if he’s around the later of our first rounders, but he would need to make Vic Metro and do well at Champs to push up into that sort of range.

 

[Munnez]

Agree with the need to replenish the midfield with high-end picks.

Another point is that even if there was a relatively early bid for him at say pick#25 that's only around 175 points more than using a later pick to draft him (say #40) after the 20% discount. You can make that difference up with pick #57 (a fourth round pick).*

Given the conjuring that Sam Power has had to do the last few years getting Marra and Darcy over the line at #1 and #2 it should be a breeze.

* quick, unaudited mental arithmetic

In Sam we trust

 

[geoffjennings79]

As much as I think there is cause for concern in some aspects of our list build, I don't actually think we are lacking too much, and think we (should) have assets at our disposal that could see it turn relatively quickly with some astute moves.

I'm going to give an absolute fairytale land scenario that obviously won't happen - but in isolation, none of the moves are particularly impossible or unrealistic IMO. As much as it's not all gonna happen in one go, I think squishing it into a one year hypothetical demonstrates just how much improvement we see from a relatively small number of moves.

If we were to do it in one year, the idea would be to grab both Doedee and McKay via FA, trade one of our mid-late firsts for Bergman, use the other first rounder on a clearance mid, and then match Lual somewhere post-40 (or bring a future first forward somewhere to take him/someone else).

That would leave us with something like:

FB: Doedee - McKay - Richards
HB: Johannisen - Jones - Dale

C: Baker - Bontempelli - Bergman

HF: B Smith - JUH - Lobb
FF: Weightman - Naughton - Jones

R: English - Liberatore - Treloar

I: Macrae - Daniel - Williams - Duryea
S: Scott

Then waiting in the wings to replace some of the older crew: Busslinger (Jones), Darcy (Lobb), 1st round clearance mid (Libba), Cleary (Duryea), Lual (Treloar), high hopes from other players like Bedendo, Clarke and O'Donnell, and some competent, mature depth in some of Gardner, Crozier, West, McLean, Khamis, McNeil, Vandermeer, etc.

As I said, this exact scenario won't happen. But gee, with three mature, solid players in there and a couple of extra 18 year olds, the list looks in so much better shape. IMO, the benefit of pushing our 18-22 players down to 23-27 would be astronomical.

I reckon we should be bold this year. We've got trade assets, we should have cap space - let's make some big plays.

I think that is a great proposal.

My only concern is at the age of 25, McKay has only once managed to play close to a full season. (At North at least - I understand he's prioritising being available for the Blues!)

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think that is a great proposal.

My only concern is at the age of 25, McKay has only once managed to play close to a full season. (At North at least - I understand he's prioritising being available for the Blues!)

Yeah, there are question marks on all of the players there. The scenario was more just a demonstration of the types of players that would make a difference; an example based on who is likely to be available this year. But as stated, we won't get it all done in one year and I'm not necessarily advocating throwing assets at these particular players.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Yeah, there are question marks on all of the players there. The scenario was more just a demonstration of the types of players that would make a difference; an example based on who is likely to be available this year. But as stated, we won't get it all done in one year and I'm not necessarily advocating throwing assets at these particular players.

Fair enough, and I realise you did state that in your first post.

I actually think McKay is a calculated risk worth considering - dependent on the bottom line of course. Doedee and Bergman I wouldn't hesitate. Nabbing McKay via FA it might be an inducement of a longer contract at a contending club to offset higher p.a. $$$.

 

[Mofra]

Agree with the need to replenish the midfield with high-end picks.

Another point is that even if there was a relatively early bid for him at say pick#25 that's only around 175 points more than using a later pick to draft him (say #40) after the 20% discount. You can make that difference up with pick #57 (a fourth round pick).*

Given the conjuring that Sam Power has had to do the last few years getting Marra and Darcy over the line at #1 and #2 it should be a breeze.

* quick, unaudited mental arithmetic

We nabbed 3 2023 4th round picks to help with bid matching.
We currently have Brissie's 2nd rounder which could well be after a Croft bid so we might need to get creative there.

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

 

[flipper83]

I can't see us getting McKay. Someone will offer him a long contact and big dollars and we didn't even want to give the bont a long contract. To be honest I think there are better ways to spend our salary cap anyway.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I can't see us getting McKay. Someone will offer him a long contact and big dollars and we didn't even want to give the bont a long contract. To be honest I think there are better ways to spend our salary cap anyway.

We're not even in the hunt for him. He'll end up at either Port or Sydney

 

[dogwatch]

I can't see us getting McKay. Someone will offer him a long contact and big dollars and we didn't even want to give the bont a long contract. To be honest I think there are better ways to spend our salary cap anyway.

My thoughts too. Dud brother.

 

[grassman75]

My thoughts too. Dud brother.

Cut him some slack - he's got to play two games most weeks

 

[dergert]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

 

[TiAn_]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

Wot

 

[Dogsman16]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

Jeezus. I wonder if we should take Nainsmith just as cover.

Darcy is out for a bit and Sweet and Lobb both have missed games with leg issues this season.

 

[Doggy]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

Based on what

 

[Munnez]

Jeezus. I wonder if we should take Nainsmith just as cover.

Darcy is out for a bit and Sweet and Lobb both have missed games with leg issues this season.

Would rather take a punt on an over Ager that has shown improvement this year. Not sure who that is but better that than a broken down ruck that probably wouldn't be able to stand up anyway

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

With respect, sometimes it's a little tricky to tell with your posts whether you're giving an opinion, posting something you've heard, or giving info from media. Not a criticism/big deal, just would be handy sometimes to have an "I reckon" or "X said" in there somewhere.

 

[doggiesin08]

We might not even take a player in the MSD.

At least put Spangher on the playing list, pay him from the salary cap and free up some soft cap room for extra myotherapists to work on all these adductors

 

[dogwatch]

At least put Spangher on the playing list, pay him from the salary cap and free up some soft cap room for extra myotherapists to work on all these adductors

We could save a lot of middlemenpersons if the abductors just took Spangher.

 

[TiAn_]

I watched most of the young guns match on the weekend and imo the hype has been a little over the top.
I don't want to knock a young fella but I think a whole lot still has to play out.

I'm more concerned about revenge bids etc.

I watched the whole game too btw and Croft basically didn’t do anything notable outside of the four goals. It was far from a dominant performance. He got hit on the lead twice, hit up standing by himself in the pocket and a Joe the Goose. Two of the goals were lovely kicks from the pocket.

I saw Rookie Me Central said he had claims to BOG and I couldn’t believe it. He wouldn’t have been in the dozen most influential players on the ground imo.

 

[doggiesin08]

I watched the whole game too btw and Croft basically didn’t do anything notable outside of the four goals. It was far from a dominant performance. He got hit on the lead twice, hit up standing by himself in the pocket and a Joe the Goose. Two of the goals were lovely kicks from the pocket.

I saw Rookie Me Central said he had claims to BOG and I couldn’t believe it. He wouldn’t have been in the dozen most influential players on the ground imo.

Very hard to determine whether he found himself in space through luck / poor defensive marking or superior agility / “forward craft”.