Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Scottish Bob]

In your opinion, though there is little evidence of this actually occurring unless your opinion on players values is significantly higher than others

Market value varies, i just feel the dogs are looked down on by at least 14 of the 17 other clubs. i just wish we had more balls sometimes. I think Sam Power does a good job, but perception of how we do deals has really set us back. I think we need to do more 12-18 months before a player is out of contract. We are in this position because we have not been able to come to agreements with a player or indeed a club to trade him, i find it mad that this still hasn't been done. But then again maybe we are all mugs, it just theater, isn't it?

 

[Westerndog11]

My genuine feeling is that the majority of trades would have been finalised yesterday or will be today. The AFL will be orchestrating things, like they have in previous years, to maximise the amount of listeners to trade radio tomorrow. They’ll drip feed us trades before building towards tomorrow night. A lot of the haggling over picks the media will be talking about would be made up bullshit to fill in air time. There will most likely a minority couple of trades that won’t be completed because they were never really a trade in the first place.

 

[Bald]

Market value varies, i just feel the dogs are looked down on by at least 14 of the 17 other clubs. i just wish we had more balls sometimes. I think Sam Power does a good job, but perception of how we do deals has really set us back. I think we need to do more 12-18 months before a player is out of contract. We are in this position because we have not been able to come to agreements with a player or indeed a club to trade him, i find it mad that this still hasn't been done. But then again maybe we are all mugs, it just theater, isn't it?

How many players have we lost that have gone on to hurt us long term though? The list starts and ends at Josh Dunkley IMO.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

The difference between the two players is that while they're both going to get paid similar amounts of money for the next two years, Macrae has another year guaranteed. Plus as an older player, it's more likely that he's going to be a poorer player in 2026 anyway than Daniel, even if in 2025, he's likely to be just as good, if not better.

The fact that Macrae is guaranteed to earn hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2027, while the very reasonable possibility that his form in 2025 and 2026 (when combined with his form in 2024) is so poor that he doesn't even justify being an AFL listed player anywhere in 2027 (or if he does, only on a minimum deal), means that remains a negative asset, as he has to carry his contract and amount of money somewhere, whether at us or St Kilda.

There's actually a lot of similarities to the Hugh Greenwood situation. Greenwood was a decent but old and declining player with three years of a good contract remaining at Gold Coast/

Gold Coast delisted to attempt to re-draft on identical contract terms to his existing amount to help manipulate other players on the draft.

North Melbourne then swoopoed in and gave him a three year deal with zero trade outlay (delisted free agent) but agreeing to meet an identical contract terms.

However Greenwood just played the third year of the three years North were committed to him. He only played three games, despite being fit and playing for a bad team, and was on good money, like Macrae will be in 2027.

If Greenwood was coming out of contract one year ago, it's likely that no team in the league would have offered him a contract, for any amount, even one year on a minimum deal.

The 2 vs 3 years matters a lot for Daniel vs. Macrae.

There is a lot of underrating of Macrae in this post. He wasnt able to beat out Bont or Libba for his preferred position.... shock horror. He is still a very good footballer and would walk into about 12-14 clubs best midfields.

Probably an unpopular opinion, but given Libba's concussions and form in the last few games of the season I would almost prefer Macrae as our slow, inside mid for 2025. Certainly, i'm a bit worried about Libba for next year

 

[tmpies01]

Going to Pies I heard on aw

Sorry to barge in here but do you know who said this?

 

[Scottish Bob]

I would like to add that I'm not saying this is the Bulldog's fault. This is all in hindsight, the reported offer from the Hawks last year would have been brilliant but if he didn't want to go, we couldn't force him. It just feels like Smith, Connors and Geelong knew this was happening this year. We just had the misfortune of him getting a season ending injury and now Geelong are leveraging that as not to pay us more.

The contract point still stands; we always seem to have at least 2 key players out of contract every year. i do understand this is a balance with the cap. But we leave ourselves open to opportunism a lot.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

There seems to be a fair bit of effort from some parts of the footy media to normalise players going to the draft to get to the club of choice.

Barrett been pretty vocal, constantly mentioning that’s what Geelong should do with Smith. Corn as well, claiming WC have been rolled in their trade for Baker suggesting they could have got him for free and it’s poor work from their list managers to hand over a pick. He also has Luke Ball on his show this morning to discuss what the process is like after his move from Saints to Pies 15 years ago via the draft.

These grubs have no common decency.

Am I tripping or is the whole trade environment becoming grubby with the media’s input/influence?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There is a lot of underrating of Macrae in this post. He wasnt able to beat out Bont or Libba for his preferred position.... shock horror. He is still a very good footballer and would walk into about 12-14 clubs best midfields.

Probably an unpopular opinion, but given Libba's concussions and form in the last few games of the season I would almost prefer Macrae as our slow, inside mid for 2025. Certainly, i'm a bit worried about Libba for next year

All of this can be true and doesn't really reject the point I'm making about 32/33 year old, slower, older, 2027 Macrae.

It's not for a whole lot of money but it's still a fair amount for a bloke who could still very well be a positive player in 2025, but then, as he gets older, is not great in 2026 that we can't believe we're committed to him in 2027.

 

[adogsfan5]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

 

[Scottish Bob]

How many players have we lost that have gone on to hurt us long term though? The list starts and ends at Josh Dunkley IMO.

Thats not really my point, it's about value. We will have been stuffed in two deals 3 years apart because inherently biased free agency/trade rules that favour the bigger clubs. So, we need to be more ruthless to make sure we aren't boxed in trade negotiations, both Dunkley and Smith had talks with clubs 12 months out from the end of their contracts, so they were at least considering moving.

I get that from a team perspective we are better with both of them in our team and I know that there probably wasn't much that would make them stay, both claimed they wanted more midfield minutes, but its cash and profile they desired. Talk of walking player to the draft only benefits the club picking them up. Proves no point at all other than making us look weak.

 

[Scottish Bob]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

I take back everything i said. In Power we trust

 

[JTCWBFC]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

This is legit ****ed.

 

[Pencil case]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

Makes me feel better about how our trade period is going. It can always be worse.

 

[Bald]

Thats not really my point, it's about value. We will have been stuffed in two deals 3 years apart because inherently biased free agency/trade rules that favour the bigger clubs. So, we need to be more ruthless to make sure we aren't boxed in trade negotiations, both Dunkley and Smith had talks with clubs 12 months out from the end of their contracts, so they were at least considering moving.

I get that from a team perspective we are better with both of them in our team and I know that there probably wasn't much that would make them stay, both claimed they wanted more midfield minutes, but its cash and profile they desired. Talk of walking player to the draft only benefits the club picking them up. Proves no point at all other than making us look weak.

I understand what you're saying but it's a fairly pessimistic view.

Flip it. We've kept nearly everyone we've wanted to keep, they've re-signed earlier than their out of contract year. A couple of have slipped through in Dunkley (who actually wanted out prior to his contract year) and Smith.

 

[Bulldogs85]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

West Coast have lost the plot

 

[TiAn_]

I think we'll miss Macrae more than many realise.

While his contribution this season wasn't his up to his previous high output, he was a very solid and reliable contributor throughout the season.

No disrespect to Macrae, who is a club legend, but I think Sanders takes his spot from Rd 1 and we don’t notice his absence.

 

[Fossie 32]

Sorry to barge in here but do you know who said this?

No soz. They are now saying the trade is on hold as Port refusing to trade him [Houston] to Pies??

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I’m no expert on this years draft, I presume WCE will look to trade out pick 3 as their is a WA draft option that falls around pick 12 to 14.

I think WCE push for Owies +p12 +p14
+ F2 for 3. Maybe even more.

It’s going to require a significant package.

Nope. This trade period is cracked.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

At what point do the AFL, when a player requests a trade, do they attach a value on that player which must be adhered to for a trade to go through?

So if the AFL say Smith is worth a pick between 10-12 plus a pick 20-25
then the club that wants him must use or find those picks or the trade doesn't happen.

This way the bull**** narrative of our club being difficult, Geelong p***ing around and media saying just shut up and take what you're given doesn't happen. It becomes simple.

Does anybody really want the AFL with its inherent opacity and built in biases arbitrating a players value?

Personally I'd rather the current flawed system where the market and the two teams ultimately decide a players worth.

The "bullshit narrative" that you describe is one confected by the media to garner engagement from football nuffies like us who should have better things to do with their post-season lives. Yet here we are hanging on and parsing every thing they say to within a column inch of its life.

For all our huffing and puffing during the interminable trade period. We need to keep in perspective that any of our needs or wants when it comes to what is and isn't fair. Amount to 2rds of **** all.

Deals will be done. There will be winners and losers and the world will continue to spiral to its inevitable demise.

All our competitors in the 8 and pushing ahead to gain better draft capital and also bring in talent from other clubs to improve their lists.

Can someone explain what our plan has been so far? Where is our improvement going to be coming from by sitting on our hands and pushing depth like Macrae out and losing Baz?

Our strategy isn't that difficult to discern. We're trying to take whatever we can engineer out of the Smith, Macrae and possibly Daniel trades and package those picks into a stronger draft hand than we otherwise had. Which as it stands is a very pedestrian pair of second and third round picks of 35 and 48. I suspect this is why the narrative being put about that moving Macrae and Daniel is needed to alleviate salary cap pressure or the threat of the PSD/ND or Geelong trying to **** us by trading away their first or offering us peanuts dug out of a shit is extremely unlikely.

 

[Scottish Bob]

I understand what you're saying but it's a fairly pessimistic view.

Flip it. We've kept nearly everyone we've wanted to keep, they've re-signed earlier than their out of contract year. A couple of have slipped through in Dunkley (who actually wanted out prior to his contract year) and Smith.

As I say it's all hindsight, not sure what the solution is. it's the frustration of the position we are in, and it has precedent.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

For those upset at Power… just take a look at the work of the west coast eagles
Pick 3 for 12, Baker and Owies.

Good lord.

Carlton the big losers in that deal. Lose two 1st rounders in a deep draft and a 30+ goal a season small forward.

For the single 1st rounder.

Remember both Cripps and Curnow went early teens. Will Phillips went at 3.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

My info is that we were prepared to trade Smith 12 months ago but he insisted on staying.

Well that would have definitely been Geelong led so they could get him more cheaply. God I hate that ****ing club.

Let's just get this diseased prick off our ****ing books and never trade with the parasites in Fordland again.

 

[lifesaver]

How many players have we lost that have gone on to hurt us long term though? The list starts and ends at Josh Dunkley IMO.

Brian Lake. 3 time Premiership player and Norm Smith Medallist maybe?

 

[LondonBulldog]

There is a lot of underrating of Macrae in this post. He wasnt able to beat out Bont or Libba for his preferred position.... shock horror. He is still a very good footballer and would walk into about 12-14 clubs best midfields.

Probably an unpopular opinion, but given Libba's concussions and form in the last few games of the season I would almost prefer Macrae as our slow, inside mid for 2025. Certainly, i'm a bit worried about Libba for next year

Not unpopular, I think the end came for Libba as a permanent onballer last year personally. Been a great warrior, but needs to also be phased out of the middle sooner rather than later. I think he will get the high half forward gig next year.
I think most observers could see that. With our forward line we need dynamic, fast with good foot skills bursting through the middle. Easier said than done though.

 

[lachy]

How many players have we lost that have gone on to hurt us long term though? The list starts and ends at Josh Dunkley IMO.

And realistically the only thing stopping that being considered a fair trade was Brisbane making the Grand Final, devaluing the future 1st