Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Proffessor]

Past achievements mean nothing for future performance.

Caleb was a fringe player all season. His prime trait (his disposal) has fallen off a cliff. He'd have maybe 20-30 games left in him in our side. To get a 2nd rounder who could potentially play 200 games for the club is robbery. Absolute no brainer.

But the point is, to say we get low balled consistently is ridiculous. We win some and we lose some - mostly depending on circumstances out of our control. Same as any other club.

Just typical loser, woe is us mentality to think we're consistently reamed.

On the contrary,
Past performance is the most effective predictor of future performance.

Whoever we get with pick 25 could very well play 200 games but the likelihood of them playing less than 20 games is a lot larger.

Caleb’s chances of playing a significant number of high quality games for North before he retires are substantially higher than that produced by an average AFL pick 25 player.

The old saying of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush comes to mind.

Unfortunately AFL group think seems to have list managers (and some fans) acting like the ratio is the other way around.

 

[BEaston]

On the contrary,
Past performance is the most effective predictor of future performance.

Whoever we get with pick 25 could very well play 200 games but the likelihood of them playing less than 20 games is a lot larger.

Caleb’s chances of playing a significant number of high quality games for North before he retires are substantially higher than that produced by an average AFL pick 25 player.

The old saying of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush comes to mind.

Unfortunately AFL group think seems to have list managers (and some fans) acting like the ratio is the other way around.

Ok let's take the average then. Pick 25 on average plays 69 games, that's more than what Daniel would play for us.

What he does at North is irrelevant to us.

 

[BEaston]

Yeah the Treloar, Keath, Lobb and Bruce deals all ranged from fair to robbery by us.

Dunkley we probably got unders for but it wasn’t severe. Still the equivalent of two late first rounders. We haven’t don’t too badly in the last five or six years.

Exactly, it's all swings and roundabouts.

People that get so caught up on us "losing" a trade week or an individual trade just says more about their perspective than anything.

 

[Mr. Walker]

Some of it is self inflicted though. We refuse to engage the contacted players in season, which makes it hard to recruit. Smiths manager said Dangerfield was a big driver of getting him to Geelong and John Noble said he decided to go to the Suns after a mid season meeting with Hardwick. We’ll need to adapt if we want to be competitive.

On SEN between 9 and 10 this morning the host interviewed the St Kilda General Manager Recruiting (?) about the Macrae deal. He said that they started talking to Macrae “ a couple of months out”.
So it’s seems that we might be the only ones who have this “ not talking to contacted players in season” rule. Puts us a bit behind in negotiations but at least we still have our honour I guess. Not a bad thing but …..

 

[Anja_Nees]

Exactly, it's all swings and roundabouts.

People that get so caught up on us "losing" a trade week or an individual trade just says more about their perspective than anything.

And the clubs who crown themselves trade week winners are perennially mediocre. Good clubs get the deals done and move on.

That historically has included Geelong who to their credit paid up for players like Dangerfield and Cameron. Mackie might be taking them down the Essendon path which would be fantastic.

 

[VitalDread]

Over the last two trade periods

Bringing in Harmes and Kennedy has address our lack of defensive tackling in our midfield rotations

Hopefully both have a clean run in the pre-season and able to provide the tackling support that Libba and that midfield needs

 

[JohnnySteel]

[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]][emoji6]" data-quote="weltschmerz" data-source="post: 0" class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--expandable bbCodeBlock--quote js-expandWatch">

Has he ever done much of anything?

Has only played [emoji[emoji6][emoji6]] games, years old. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him. Has speed and a great kick. Would be useful on wing / half back.


On iPhone using ][emoji6]][emoji6][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Norm De Guerre]

There is no way to spin it. After talking a big game about holding strong, we folded like a cheap deck chair.

Yeah there is. We got the best possible deal given the restraints placed upon the club by a system that favours players needs over those of a club. If we'd folded as you suggest, then we would've seen Geelong trade out pick 17 or 38 or both and then dare us to send Smith to the PSD.

Not only did we give up substantially more than we got in return, but our trade credibility has also been severely eroded, so we are likely to get worse deals in future trades.

We gave up a player who didnt want to be there thus robbing us of what little leverage we had. And two players who were at the core of our issues when it came to being unable to move the ball or cover the ground at pace. As the modern game demands. Are we better served in that regard by those who replace them? That remains to be seen. What its certain is that we couldn't continue on the stagnant path of mediocrity that we've been on. Given the age of Treloar and Libba generational change needed to start happening.

And it needed to start with two guys who were overpaid for what they were producing.

Regardless of their legacy at the club.

Whatever credit points Sam Power had in the bank before today, they are all gone now.

He smashed it given the hand he was dealt.

Not to mention the emotional impact of trading away champions of the club for a pittance.

Emotional claptrap.

Anyone talking this up as a win or even a reasonable outcome is kidding themselves.

Im quite comfortable with how things panned out. Given its entirely in line with what I predicted.

 

[Ghenghis]

Exactly, it's all swings and roundabouts.

People that get so caught up on us "losing" a trade week or an individual trade just says more about their perspective than anything.

How did we go that year we picked up Chris Grant with a pick in the late 50's?

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Smith quite simply never felt like a bulldog player. Everything about him was incongruous with our club.

I especially hated his injecting celebration among many things about him that I found genuinely distasteful.

I always felt his haircut to be more distasteful.

I get the irony of the mullet for a weekend laugh after a big night.

But to go with that look day in day out is just embarrassing.

Kids today...

 

[nooB]

How did we go that year we picked up Chris Grant with a pick in the late 50's?

Pick 105. Although this was during a time where stats/data and a heap of other metadata wasn't available at the time. Now days clubs have access to a potential AFL player's output with all the trial data they have access to.

anything outside of pick 50 and you're praying and hoping they develop into a potential key player. you'd almost say anything within the realm of 1-50 is where the draftee is 'likely' to live up to the potential

 

[Sentinel]

Has only played [emoji[emoji6][emoji6]] games, years old. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him. Has speed and a great kick. Would be useful on wing / half back.


On iPhone using ][emoji6]][emoji6][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]BigFooty.com mobile app

Am I alone in seeing these posts like this?

 

[JohnnySteel]

[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji6][emoji6]" data-quote="Sentinel" data-source="post: 0" class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--expandable bbCodeBlock--quote js-expandWatch">

Am I alone in seeing these posts like this?

No I can see it too and I can’t even edit them to remove. Bizarre.


On iPhone using ][emoji6]][emoji6][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[VitalDread]

For those giving crap to Power over the Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

deal

Dogs managed to clear over 1.6mil of Cap for next year which is the biggest free agency year in ages

Freeing up our midfield for Sanders and Garcia while bringing in a mature hard nut in Kennedy

With enough picks to also move back into the mid tier of the first round

 

[Rookie]

For those giving crap to Power over the Bailey Smith deal

Dogs managed to clear over 1.6mil of Cap for next year which is the biggest free agency year in ages

Freeing up our midfield for Sanders and Garcia while bringing in a mature hard nut in Kennedy

With enough picks to also move back into the mid tier of the first round

Other than Rayner, doesn't look like there's much worth targetting?

 

[JohnnySteel]

For those giving crap to Power over the Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

deal

Dogs managed to clear over 1.6mil of Cap for next year which is the biggest free agency year in ages

Freeing up our midfield for Sanders and Garcia while bringing in a mature hard nut in Kennedy

With enough picks to also move back into the mid tier of the first round

We should be set to give a payrise to Darcy & Richards at the very least. Perhaps extend / revisit Marra’s deal also.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[threenewpadlocks]

On the contrary,
Past performance is the most effective predictor of future performance.

Whoever we get with pick 25 could very well play 200 games but the likelihood of them playing less than 20 games is a lot larger.

Caleb’s chances of playing a significant number of high quality games for North before he retires are substantially higher than that produced by an average AFL pick 25 player.

The old saying of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush comes to mind.

Unfortunately AFL group think seems to have list managers (and some fans) acting like the ratio is the other way around.

If past performance is indeed the most effective indicator of future performance and the more recent its, the more predictive, than surely Daniel's actual 2024 season is the most relevant predictor here?

Daniel played two good games in the final two rounds of the H&A season but other than that it was a generally poor season including being ineffectual often when coming on as the sub, and he himself playing poorly which was a factor in costing us the win vs Geelong in the gather round game.

All of this without outstanding VFL forn this year when he played there - even Oskar Baker was the better VFL player in games they played together.

I agree Daniel is a champion of our club and has reinvented himself before and could do so again. It is through that possibility we got pick 25, a meaningful pick with a reasonable chance of a good player (unlike e.g. the 38 we gave up for Kennedy, which is a pick that significantly drops off). But it's strange not to treat his 2024 season for what it was - even worse than Macrae`s?

 

[Bulldogs85]

Bulldogs Media | Western Bulldogs

Watch the latest videos from the Western Bulldogs

www.westernbulldogs.com.au

 

[Charlie Bucket]

My prediction for next off season is, we trade Marra for two 1sts and then bring in a gun free agent with that trade currency and the massive cap space we have.

I’d put my house on this already being discussed to some degree by our list managers and coaches.

I love Marra, but his worth opens up huge list improvement possibilities.

 

[scooter600x]

I don’t understand how Daniel went for so much more than Macrae. Macrae is the far superior player, he will be StKilda’s best midfielder immediately

 

[TiAn_]

I don’t understand how Daniel went for so much more than Macrae. Macrae is the far superior player, he will be StKilda’s best midfielder immediately

North about as desperate as a team gets for quality, mature players.

 

[Mofra]

How did we go that year we picked up Chris Grant with a pick in the late 50's?

105

Drafting had come a long way since then, but there are still value picks late every year. Joel Freijah already looks an inspired pick, and let's not forget Bramble as a freebie was 7th in our B&F.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

My prediction for next off season is, we trade Marra for two 1sts and then bring in a gun free agent with that trade currency and the massive cap space we have.

I’d put my house on this already being discussed to some degree by our list managers and coaches.

I love Marra, but his worth opens up huge lost improvement possibilities.

Adding to this, Tigers will likely have a handful of 1sts next year, and will have a desperate need for KPF’s. So already we’d have a club that could pay the price we set.

 

[Angak]

On SEN between 9 and 10 this morning the host interviewed the St Kilda General Manager Recruiting (?) about the Macrae deal. He said that they started talking to Macrae “ a couple of months out”.
So it’s seems that we might be the only ones who have this “ not talking to contacted players in season” rule. Puts us a bit behind in negotiations but at least we still have our honour I guess. Not a bad thing but …..

We talked to Lobb mid season with 1.5 yrs left on his contract.
We were in talks with Barrass whilst he was in contract.

The notion that we don't talk to players who have yrs left on thier contract isn't true

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Other than Rayner, doesn't look like there's much worth targetting?

Milera (assuming his knee isn’t destroyed)
Starcevich
Rayner
TDK
Collins
Worpel
LDU
Allen

There’s a pretty decent list still (plus others I didn’t include) and most of the above would significantly improve us. TDK and Allen would only make sense if we lost a key forward, but otherwise they’re all more than worth the cap space required to squeeze out a free agent.

Until now, every Band 1 free agent has gone to a major Victorian club, or Bris/Syd. I hope we are the ones to buck this trend next year because it can give a massive competitive advantage being able to recruit high quality players without spending the draft picks usually required.