Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[go you pups]

If we're paying some salary on Daniel, 100% I'd reject that offer North made for him

If we pay salary then sure, pick 25 on it's own will probably be fair, but for just an upgraded pick, nope.

 

[Struggle]

I anticipate that we're happy to make the trade for Daniel, we're just trying to squeeze more out of North because of the fact that Daniel is happy to stay and while the offloading of salary would be beneficial, it is not strictly necessary under the salary cap, so the downside for us is minimised.

It increases negotiation position with saints for Macrae too - clearing 1.4ish mil between Daniel and Smith's offer eliminates any chance of them claiming that taking him off our books is necessary for our cap

 

[El Rancho]

I think it's silly for us in terms of expected output for the club trying to maximise its list management assets (treating players and draft picks as a collective), but I think we can argue there's not ever any concept of being unreasonable for any contracted player.

We're entitled to hold a contracted player to his contract if we desire, even if North were offering pick 2 for him, and there's nothing unreasonable about that desire.

Agreed, we are obviously entitled to hold him, that's the point in having a contract. We obviously want something much more favorable than what North are offering I'd say.
If we were actually hell bent on holding him though, surely the club would just come out and say he's a required player and under no circumstance is he leaving the club.
We haven't done that, so their is obviously some truth to the fact that we are considering him leaving.

 

[Foxman98]

The talk of clearing space being our focus shits me.

The best clubs keep their stars and attract new high end talent.

We need to do more.

What stars are we losing?

 

[MaxiBont]

The talk of clearing space being our focus shits me.

The best clubs keep their stars and attract new high end talent.

We need to do more.

What stars are there to get this year?

What did Daniel and Macrae provide this year that will be missed next year?

I agree in principle, but you can’t do stuff for the sake of doing it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Without explicitly knowing both how much salary Macrae and Daniel will get paid (both guaranteed and through triggers/performance bonuses), and how much salary we'd still pay, if any at all, if they get traded, what is "fair" and "not fair" is really all but impossible to figure out and discuss as fans.

A draft pick we get can be teetering on a win or a loss for us solely on the basis of the fact that we are or aren't paying as little as 50k or 100k of their future salary (or the ability to avoid 50k or 100k if they're guaranteed for that much more than we assume).

We can talk in broad strokes but the difference between "getting away from" a $750k salary for Daniel or if it's actually only $650k (for example) because of (potentially) unmet performance bonuses from this past year, is very material, it's just that we don't really know what it is as fans.

 

[JTCWBFC]

What stars are we losing?

Go watch Smiths 2021 finals series.

Still very young.

He's a huge loss.

2/4 of our starting mids are about to tip over the edge.

Dunkley would be pretty handy.

We can sugar coat it, but we have a long way to go as a club.

We need to keep our young guns & keep improving in other ways.

 

[BLACAE]

I won’t be at all upset if Macrae stays. If Libba or (gods preserve us!) Bont go down injured he will have a role to play in the guts.

I'd be resting libba next year anyway. Interstate games and the like. Even against lesser Melbourne teams.

Macrae can certainly help there, but I'd also be using the other boys like West, Gags, Sanders etc to fill that. That game West tore apart with 4 goals was as a pinch hitting FWD/Mid. He was also excellent in the loss to the Swans.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Libbaaaa]

Go watch Smiths 2021 finals series.

Still very young.

He's a huge loss.

2/4 of our starting mids are about to tip over the edge.

Dunkley would be pretty handy.

We can sugar coat it, but we have a long way to go as a club.

We need to keep our young guns & keep improving in other ways.

I'll die on a hill saying the semi final and prelim from Smith is a complete outlier.

 

[Libbaaaa]

I'd be resting libba next year anyway. Interstate games and the like. Even against lesser Melbourne teams.

Macrae can certainly help there, but I'd also be using the other boys like West, Gags, Sanders etc to fill that. That game West tore apart with 4 goals was as a pinch hitting FWD/Mid. He was also excellent in the loss to the Swans.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Even Bont, Jones etc... hence why being solid from round 1 is a must

 

[Dogsfan1]

Go watch Smiths 2021 finals series.

Still very young.

He's a huge loss.

2/4 of our starting mids are about to tip over the edge.

Dunkley would be pretty handy.

We can sugar coat it, but we have a long way to go as a club.

We need to keep our young guns & keep improving in other ways.

You just find the negative in everything we have signed the players we wanted to keep this year everyone said garcia would leave busslinger would go and what happened they signed on

 

[Foxman98]

Go watch Smiths 2021 finals series.

Still very young.

He's a huge loss.

2/4 of our starting mids are about to tip over the edge.

Dunkley would be pretty handy.

We can sugar coat it, but we have a long way to go as a club.

We need to keep our young guns & keep improving in other ways.

2 good games don't make him a star,

Shit himself in the final coughed up the pill was the start of the onslaught

Dunkley is a tagger now and genuine role player again not a star

 

[Mojorisin]

I'd be resting libba next year anyway. Interstate games and the like. Even against lesser Melbourne teams.

Macrae can certainly help there, but I'd also be using the other boys like West, Gags, Sanders etc to fill that. That game West tore apart with 4 goals was as a pinch hitting FWD/Mid. He was also excellent in the loss to the Swans.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

This is one thing I'll give Geelong credit for, the management of their older guys is top notch and definitely a reason they can not only play so well so late into their careers but also perform to such a standard throughout the whole season.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Go watch Smiths 2021 finals series.

Still very young.

He's a huge loss.

2/4 of our starting mids are about to tip over the edge.

Dunkley would be pretty handy.

We can sugar coat it, but we have a long way to go as a club.

We need to keep our young guns & keep improving in other ways.

But didn't you know, he 'outgrew' the club?

What should we do? Move Cotton On to West Footscray? Open up some new farmland and areas ripe for development at Seddon? Relocate the prime selfie posing spots of Bells Beach and Torquay to Williamstown?

Smith is all about himself, couldn't give a toss about the club just as long as the club gets him to where he wants to be.

Dunkley - no idea what happened there, but again, what can we do? He made the decision and in this day and age there is no loyalty. Is all about the me.

 

[nooB]

The Dunkley loss was a bit interesting - in hindsight, you'd have to say we were right to keep him as he was a huge asset in that 2021 finals campaign. I'm not sure what the narrative is had we traded him to the bombers. His preparation, professionalism and how he his expectations of himself and the club were to be of a very high standard is what I miss.

Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

- the narrative has changed over the past couple of months. I think many knew he was heading for the door but the manner he is leaving is the complete opposite to that of Dunkley. At least Dunkley showed up to the awards night and departed somewhat amicably through the front door given the circumstances. Smith no shows the award night, has a shit fight with a few players in which they've unfollowed each other and appears to have severed all ties with the club regarding social media etc. We may be dodging a bullet here with his exit. Fantastic 2021 finals campaign but that's all she wrote on that.

I agree with what's being said - there could be something rotten inside the club in which we have lost a few decent players over the past few years.

 

[dogwatch]

...

I agree with what's being said - there could be something rotten inside the club in which we have lost a few decent players over the past few years.

Another explanation is that bit by bit the bigger clubs and the clubs that the AFL needs to succeed for their own commercial reasons (ie Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) have worked out ways to squeeze the smaller clubs out of the action. Despite the equalisation rules and settings.

It's market/jungle dynamics at work. We are no worse off than St Kilda or North in this regard. In fact I'd say we are marginally in front of them but we are still way down the AFL pecking order. Possibly Freo in our group too.

 

[TiAn_]

The talk of clearing space being our focus shits me.

The best clubs keep their stars and attract new high end talent.

We need to do more.

Removing $1.2-1.5M annually for two players that are no longer critical for us is a pretty good result moving forward ($1.8-2.3M when you factor in Smith, who didn’t play this year). We can reallocate that where needed for next season and don’t have to worry about whether we’ll be able to move them on next trade period and how much salary we might end up having to pay, whether we’ll get shafted on picks, etc.

No, it’s not sexy, but it’s important. Hopefully we snag O’Halloran and get picks in to draft another 4-5 kids and keep the list turning over. Maybe with clear air next year we can throw some money at FAs, etc. It’s perhaps not exciting but it’s progress.

 

[nooB]

Another explanation is that bit by bit the bigger clubs and the clubs that the AFL needs to succeed for their own commercial reasons (ie Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) have worked out ways to squeeze the smaller clubs out of the action. Despite the equalisation rules and settings.

It's market/jungle dynamics at work. We are no worse off than St Kilda or North in this regard. In fact I'd say we are marginally in front of them but we are still way down the AFL pecking order. Possibly Freo in our group too.

You'd think stuff like this would make the AFL die a slow death. They have a competition that they could leave alone and evolve organically. In saying that, Brisbane did serve some hard times for most part of that 2010-2020 bracket... but hey, do 3 flags in a row and do some hard times somewhat for 20 years before winning the next one... i think many would sign for that blindfolded

 

[JTCWBFC]

Removing $1.2-1.5M annually for two players that are no longer critical for us is a pretty good result moving forward ($1.8-2.3M when you factor in Smith, who didn’t play this year). We can reallocate that where needed for next season and don’t have to worry about whether we’ll be able to move them on next trade period and how much salary we might end up having to pay, whether we’ll get shafted on picks, etc.

No, it’s not sexy, but it’s important. Hopefully we snag O’Halloran and get picks in to draft another 4-5 kids and keep the list turning over. Maybe with clear air next year we can throw some money at FAs, etc. It’s perhaps not exciting but it’s progress.

Agree it’s important but we appear to have little to no ability to land players right now.

Hence my comments about us needing to improve.

 

[CDBulldog]

Sanders and Croft will end up being better than Wilson and whoever that other kid is. I'm willing to put cash on that.

Croft will be a gun, Sanders elite in and under type to complement Bont and Red. Bookmark it.

 

[CDBulldog]

Probably the rest of the boys didn’t want to be around somebody that already had one foot out the door

The guy is a turd. He smells so no wonder the rest of the group kept their distance.

 

[Scottish Bob]

Removing $1.2-1.5M annually for two players that are no longer critical for us is a pretty good result moving forward ($1.8-2.3M when you factor in Smith, who didn’t play this year). We can reallocate that where needed for next season and don’t have to worry about whether we’ll be able to move them on next trade period and how much salary we might end up having to pay, whether we’ll get shafted on picks, etc.

No, it’s not sexy, but it’s important. Hopefully we snag O’Halloran and get picks in to draft another 4-5 kids and keep the list turning over. Maybe with clear air next year we can throw some money at FAs, etc. It’s perhaps not exciting but it’s progress.

I think one thing that really helps us with these three potentially leaving is the ability to frontload a few contracts we want to get done before the end of next season. Richards being one crucial contract that needs to really get done ASAP.

I still think Caleb stays though, been absolutely no movement at our end, his management or indication that he wants to leave.

 

[DiamondDogs8]

I understand North are far more desperate for ‘established’ talent than the Saints, but the fact that Caleb’s market value is ~20 picks higher than Jacko’s is puzzling to me.

 

[Bald]

I understand North are far more desperate for ‘established’ talent than the Saints, but the fact that Caleb’s market value is ~20 picks higher than Jacko’s is puzzling to me.

If they had offered pick 25, then you'd be right.

But when it's all said and done, list managers consider the ramifications of the draft. Consider these things:

The pick for Macrae will likely come in 5-6 spots to a pick in the late 30s.

The pick for Daniel will balloon out to a pick in the late 20s or early 30s, and we're giving a pick that will come in to a pick in the early 40s with it.

In these hypotheticals, their value is pretty similar I would have thought.

 

[Scottish Bob]

I understand North are far more desperate for ‘established’ talent than the Saints, but the fact that Caleb’s market value is ~20 picks higher than Jacko’s is puzzling to me.

Really comes down to the fact that Jacko has requested a trade and Caleb hasn't I think, but also, we aren't desperate. Their contracts are factored in and we will hang onto both if we need to.