List Mgmt. Trade/Draft/Targets Part II

[Tigerandy63]

AFL 2004 Wizard Cup Grand Final - Geelong v St Kilda
View attachment 763941

Bullsh1t cup doesn't count

 

[CaptchaProofBot]

from AFL website:

Suspended defender Sam Murray is attracting varying interest from Melbourne, Richmond, Greater Western Sydney and North Melbourne as an option in the delisted free agency period.

he's got pace i suppose...

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Bullsh1t cup doesn't count

They beat Geelong, one less piece of silverware for Kardinia Park!

 

[THE THIN MAN]

from AFL website:

Suspended defender Sam Murray is attracting varying interest from Melbourne, Richmond, Greater Western Sydney and North Melbourne as an option in the delisted free agency period.

he's got pace i suppose...

Trade Wrap: Dogs won't budge on Bruce, Blues could pay up for Sun

Trade Wrap: Dogs won't budge on Bruce, Blues could pay up for Sun

Why the Bulldogs are desperate to hang on to their first-round pick, plus the latest on Jack Martin and a big Swan

www.afl.com.au

 

[Cevap_Roll]

19 and 38 to the dogs for 13.

They can use their 32 for Bruce.
38 for Keith and take 19 to the draft.

Or use 19 for Bruce should they get desperate. Which is way way overs.

 

[Tiger_Mad_80]

bruce is a spud

 

[THE_GUN]

19 and 38 to the dogs for 13.

They can use their 32 for Bruce.
38 for Keith and take 19 to the draft.

The thing is that #13 and #19 are really not that much different in this years draft and it drops away after 3/4 and there is another group in the next 5/6 then is similar for the next 20-30 players.

Unless you get to 7/8 it really isnt worth the trade imo

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Fact is Butler like Menadue and anyone else we are looking at moving on have been fantastic servants of our club. Unfortunately for them they have been overtaken in the pecking order and senior opportunities are minimal at best. That is simply a product of our outstanding recruiting and development programs of the last 5-6 years.

This is where the club culture comes in. We could act like Dildoro and demand higher picks for them? Yeah sure, but in reality with list restrictions if we weren't trading them we would be delisting them.

I'm so proud our club helps facilitate moves to other clubs for more opportunities for these guys. It shows we care about our players and it is why we are the number 1 'Destination club'

Don't think these things go unnoticed league wide. It happened with Tom Lynch and it will happen the next time there is a free agent that will fit into our side.

We are nailing every bit of football right now and it's awesome


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

"It shows we care about our players and it is why we are the number 1 'Destination club’”

By what measure is Richmond the number 1 destination club?

Apologies for asking such a question but I am sitting here wondering whether that is one of the most misused terms in the sport right now...

 

[Cevap_Roll]

The thing is that #13 and #19 are really not that much different in this years draft and it drops away after 3/4 and there is another group in the next 5/6 then is similar for the next 20-30 players.

Unless you get to 7/8 it really isnt worth the trade imo

Getting to 13 helps us get lower if we have to.
We still have 2 more 2nd round picks we can package.

 

[THE_GUN]

Getting to 13 helps us get lower if we have to.
We still have 2 more 2nd round picks we can package.

I agree normally but this draft after pick #10 you could throw a blanket over the next 15-20 players
The chances are that the player we would take with #13 would be the same player we take with pick #19

 

[Cevap_Roll]

I agree normally but this draft after pick #10 you could throw a blanket over the next 15-20 players
The chances are that the player we would take with #13 would be the same player we take with pick #19

Once we move to 13 we then work on getting into 10.
13, 39 and Dew to Freo?

 

[THE_GUN]

Once we move to 13 we then work on getting into 10.
13, 39 and Dew to Freo?

We would be better off just offering up #19+#39+#41 for a pick like the North pick #8

Just take 2 picks #8 + #38

 

[Cevap_Roll]

We would be better off just offering up #19+#39+#41 for a pick like the North pick #8

Just take 2 picks #8 + #38

Accept North don't need more picks for anything.

19 and 38 to dogs is something they can use
We can then look at upgrading 13 after that.

Maybe to blues... 13 39 and Butler for 6.
Blues can give 13 to Swans for Papley.

 

[THE_GUN]

Accept North don't need more picks for anything.

19 and 38 to dogs is something they can use
We can then look at upgrading 13 after that.

Maybe to blues... 13 39 and Butler for 6.
Blues can give 13 to Swans for Papley.

Personally i dont see us moving up from #19
We might combine our 2 later picks like 41+39 to move upto say #20 but that would be about it
#19,#20,#38 would be a decent result

 

[NimFromSudan]

I just want us to move up high enough for a shot at one of the top few tall defenders. Not gonna say they need to be a star, but with the Garthwaite experiment this year showing he may be too slow for AFL level, and Balta not yet fully clicking in defence, we may be light on in that area come the Rance, Astbury, Grimes retirements over the next 2-5 years.

We need a good strong group with experience playing together and occasionally at AFL level when that change hits us. Nobody would have picked Grimes as an elite defender on rookie draft dat, so imagine what our system could do for a really talented kid up the top end of the draft with a similar attitude and work ethic.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The thing is that #13 and #19 are really not that much different in this years draft and it drops away after 3/4 and there is another group in the next 5/6 then is similar for the next 20-30 players.

Unless you get to 7/8 it really isnt worth the trade imo

I would give up 38 to move from 19 to 13 in a heartbeat. Saying 13 and 19 are not much different is like saying you would rather other clubs choose who you take with your first pick than you choosing yourself. On average in drafts the games expectancy drops from 113 at pick 13 to 89 at pick 19.

Pick 13 produced Jack Riewoldt, Bob Murphy, Shane Crawford, Patrick Cripps, Nick Dal Santo, Taylor Adams, Daniel Talia, Lachie Weller, Andrew McKay, Shannon Hurn, Brad Ebert. Plenty of other players of merit as well, including Adelaide’s Tom Lynch. Also in recent years as yet undetermined Jarrod Brander and Isaac Quaynor who are both expected to be very good. So you are about a 45% chance to get a player of the calibre of those listed on average at pick 13.

Pick 19 You get David Mundy, Barry Hall, Brad Green, Callan Ward, Isaac Smith, Shaun Grigg, Nick Davis, Ben Holland, but in recent years Tim English, Ryan Burton, Liam Stocker and Will Powell all show some decent promise.

Overall comparing players taken at 13 and 19 in the same draft I make it 14 of the players taken at 13 had strong careers and were better than the player taken at 19. And 6 of the players taken at 19 had decent careers and have been clearly superior to the player taken at pick 13 in the same draft. I have ignored the last 3 drafts as being inconclusive at this point.

So you may be right that this draft is more even around those selections but history says there is a quite significant difference in the quality pf the pool of players taken at pick 13 and the pool of players taken at pick 19. That would be enough for me to want to spend pick 38 trading up.

 

[THE_GUN]

I would give up 38 to move from 19 to 13 in a heartbeat. Saying 13 and 19 are not much different is like saying you would rather other clubs choose who you take with your first pick than you choosing yourself. On average in drafts the games expectancy drops from 113 at pick 13 to 89 at pick 19.

Pick 13 produced Jack Riewoldt, Bob Murphy, Shane Crawford, Patrick Cripps, Nick Dal Santo, Taylor Adams, Daniel Talia, Lachie Weller, Andrew McKay, Shannon Hurn, Brad Ebert. Plenty of other players of merit as well, including Adelaide’s Tom Lynch. Also in recent years as yet undetermined Jarrod Brander and Isaac Quaynor who are both expected to be very good. So you are on average about a 45% chance to get a player of the calibre of those listed on average at pick 13.

Pick 19 You get David Mundy, Barry Hall, Brad Green, Callan Ward, Isaac Smith, Shaun Grigg, Nick Davis, Ben Holland, but in recent years Tim English, Ryan Burton, Liam Stocker and Will Powell all show some decent promise.

Overall comparing players taken at 13 and 19 in the same draft I make it 14 of the players taken at 13 had strong careers and were better than the player taken at 19. And 6 of the players taken at 19 had decent careers and have been clearly superior to the player taken at pick 13 in the same draft. I have ignored the last 3 drafts as being inconclusive at this point.

So you may be right that this draft is more even around those selections but history says there is a quite significant difference in the quality pf the pool of players taken at pick 13 and the pool of players taken at pick 19. That would be enough for me to want to spend pick 38 trading up.

Picks in the 40's & 50's also produce players like Worpel , Ross
would you give up a player like that for a 6 place upgrade ?

You could ask 18 recruiters who they have between 13-19 and this year you wont get 2 the same and the chances are that there would be a group of 20 players in that lot.

Some have Cooper Stephens going at #16 and others have him mid 30's
Some say Sam De koning is a to 15 pick the others are in the 30's

Apart from the top 10 the rest is a gamble but if we were to have a chance to get Norths pick 8 and get a chance at Brodie Kemp the yeah grab it but 13 i dont see any stand outs there

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I just want us to move up high enough for a shot at one of the top few tall defenders. Not gonna say they need to be a star, but with the Garthwaite experiment this year showing he may be too slow for AFL level, and Balta not yet fully clicking in defence, we may be light on in that area come the Rance, Astbury, Grimes retirements over the next 2-5 years.

We need a good strong group with experience playing together and occasionally at AFL level when that change hits us. Nobody would have picked Grimes as an elite defender on rookie draft dat, so imagine what our system could do for a really talented kid up the top end of the draft with a similar attitude and work ethic.

Agree with your aim to get a quality key defender, but don’t be surprised if Garthwaite is a lot better next season if his pre season is uninterrupted. At worst he should be good depth. But it would be nice to get a quality young key position defender to join him in the VFL.

 

[Tiger_Mad_80]

LOL they need a full rebuild. corio retirement village

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Picks in the 40's & 50's also produce players like Worpel , Ross
would you give up a player like that for a 6 place upgrade ?

You could ask 18 recruiters who they have between 13-19 and this year you wont get 2 the same and the chances are that there would be a group of 20 players in that lot.

Some have Cooper Stephens going at #16 and others have him mid 30's
Some say Sam De koning is a to 15 pick the others are in the 30's

Apart from the top 10 the rest is a gamble but if we were to have a chance to get Norths pick 8 and get a chance at Brodie Kemp the yeah grab it but 13 i dont see any stand outs there

To be honest your opening paragraph is slack. To make the case properly you would need to go to the pick in question, say 38, and look at its history. Or maybe the history of the pick and a few picks either side of it to get a better sample. Then you can get the real picture of the historical value of that pick and whether it might be worth giving up for an upgrade from 19 to 13.

Let me get you started...

Last 15 pick 38’s:

Irving Mosquito
Jack Petrucelle
Sean Darcy
Harley Balic
Jack Hiscox
Dayle Garlett
Jackson Ramsay
Jordan Kelly
Mitch Hallahan
Sam Reid(Swans)
Matthew Broadbent
Myke Cook
James Hawkesly
Travis Tuck
Damian McCormack

There is no undisputed stars on that list but the last few show promise and Reid and Broadbent have had decent careers. Overall though you are probably about a 20-25% chance to get a hundred gamer and a 10% chance to get a 200 gamer judging by that list.

A better sample may be Richmond’s last say 10 picks between about 35 and 45 or first pick after that.

2018 Jack Ross
2017 Partrick Naish
2016 Jack Graham
2015 Oleg Markov
2014 Connor Menadue & Nathan Drummond
2013 Nathan Gordon
2012 Matthew Mcdonough
2011 Matt Arnott
2010 Brad Helbig

So latterly some very promising types but jury still out on all of them. Longer term we are probably running similar to the above sample, about 20-25% chance of a 100 gamer and 10% chance of one of those becoming a 200 gamer. No genuine stars as yet.

Unsure whether you accept that assessment. If you do, would you trade a pick with that sort of profile(1 in 4-5 chance of a 100 gamer, 1 in 10 chance for a 200 gamer, no bona fide stars produced as yet) from relevant samples, to move from pick 19 to 13 in an average year.....given that of the pool of 200+ gamers produced by those two picks, it is at least twice as likely for that player to come from pick 13 than it is to come from pick 19...?

 

[theflea]

Business development

Industry?

 

[mad_tiggy911]

Doesn’t Hill want back to Melb? Automatically rules Geelol out.

 

[THE_GUN]

To be honest your opening paragraph is slack. To make the case properly you would need to go to the pick in question, say 38, and look at its history. Or maybe the history of the pick and the two picks either side of it to get a better sample. Then you can get the real picture of the historical value of that pick and whether it might be worth giving up for an upgrade from 19 to 13.

Let me get you started...

Last 15 pick 38’s:

Irving Mosquito
Jack Petrucelle
Sean Darcy
Harley Balic
Jack Hiscox
Dayle Garlett
Jackson Ramsay
Jordan Kelly
Mitch Hallahan
Sam Reid(Swans)
Matthew Broadbent
Myke Cook
James Hawkesly
Travis Tuck
Damian McCormack

There is no undisputed stars on that list but the last few show promise and Reid and Broadbent have had decent careers. Overall though you are probably about a 20-25% chance to get a hundred gamer and a 10% chance to get a 200 gamer judging by that list.

A better sample may be Richmond’s last say 10 picks between about 35 and 45 or first pick after that.

2018 Jack Ross
2017 Partrick Naish
2016 Jack Graham
2015 Oleg Markov
2014 Connor Menadue & Nathan Drummond
2013 Nathan Gordon
2012 Matthew Mcdonough
2011 Matt Arnott
2010 Brad Helbig

So latterly some very promising types but jury still out on all of them. Longer term we are probably running similar to the above sample, about 20-25% chance of a 100 gamer and 10% chance of one of those becoming a 200 gamer. No genuine stars as yet.

Unsure whether you accept that assessment. If you do, would you trade a pick with that sort of profile(1 in 4-5 chance of a 100 gamer, 1 in 10 chance for a 200 gamer, no bona fide stars produced as yet from relevant samples, to move from pick 19 to 13 in an average year.....given that of the pool of 200+ gamers produced by those two picks, it is at least twice as likely for that player to come from pick 13 than it is to come from pick 19...?

Im sure a similar outcome would be with just about every pick in isolation and the better the pick the more likely hood of a better player and nobody can deny that under normal circumstances but what i was trying to say is that this years draft is not as good as drafts gone by in the top range and is a more even draft.

So what you are probably better of comparing is say 1 pick in the 10-15 range against 2 picks 1 being 15-20 and the other being 35-40
Richmond later pick selection over the past 4-5 years has been extremely good and im confident we could find at least 1 top shelf player with the 3 picks we have 38,39,41 as well as another with 19

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Im sure a similar outcome would be with just about every pick in isolation and the better the pick the more likely hood of a better player and nobody can deny that under normal circumstances but what i was trying to say is that this years draft is not as good as drafts gone by in the top range and is a more even draft.

So what you are probably better of comparing is say 1 pick in the 10-15 range against 2 picks 1 being 15-20 and the other being 35-40
Richmond later pick selection over the past 4-5 years has been extremely good and im confident we could find at least 1 top shelf player with the 3 picks we have 38,39,41 as well as another with 19

The draft points system definitely favours your argument by roughly 200 points, which makes me think that pairing pick 19 with pick 41 could even entice the Mutts to trade 13 to us. And I agree that a safer exercise(too time consuming for me) would be to look at all picks in a similar range, but your ranges are a bit out in favour of your argument I see. The right ranges would be one pick in the 11-15 range, versus 2 picks, one being in the 17-21 range the other being in the 36-40 range. The trouble with using just pick 13 v pick 19 is there would be a lot more variance with the single picks than with the 5 pick ranges of which the specific picks in question form the middle.

In favour of my argument is Richmond may not wish to make more than 2-3 selections and any upgrades at all in that case would be seen as a free hit. And the long histories of picks 13, 19 and 38 of course..... Going to the draft with 13, 38, 39 wouldn’t be too bad and further trading with Carlatan making that picks 9 and 38 might not be so bad either if the club only wanted the 2 picks.

 

[Ceehook]

Toilet technician is the rumor.

Forestry worker at Kardinia
Always cutting logs down that way apparently