List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 10

[tigs2010]

Yes, Dogs superstar Jack Macrae wants to leave the kennel.
30 years old.
View attachment 2107034

1st part of the rebuild ️

 

[Tigerbob]

assuming we select midfielders with our first 3, what player would your choice for pick 10 be?



would be keen to hear your 1/3/6 as well

1. Finn O’Sullivan
3. Jagga Smith or Harvey Langford
6. Sam Lalor or Murphy Reid

Bit to think about. I’m undecided at this stage. If we don’t select Finn at 1, I think he’s an option for North at 2. If we take Jagga at 3, does Harvey Langford fall to 6? I think now Sam Lalor and Murphy Reid are definitely there at 6. I doubted Lalor would be but I feel, without testing results, others will fail to bite. We can take the risk with this being our third pick of the draft (incredible outcome)

This is why I don’t want to trade for Pick 2. Let North reach there. If it’s Armstrong let them take him at 2. Opens up options we need down further. Much prefer 1, 3, 6 and 10 to 1, 2 and 3 in this draft.

At 10 so many possibilities. I will say best available. Also depends on what other picks we have coming. I’ll say at this stage if Toby Travaglia is available I’d almost bite here. Shanahan an option. People gonna slate me but I have Dattoli as an option here as well. Tauru? Love his athleticism. Could be anything.

My advice would be in our situation inside ten, take the next player on the whiteboard. We need talent desperately.

 

[Karp3_dm]

isnt he the campaigner they got in the mid season draft and he couldnt get a game

Got dropped for the grand final

 

[Karp3_dm]

It’s smart.

Yeah smart for us

Makes Rioli’s value sky rocket as he’s 10 times the player Noble is

 

[prodigy]

Not what I want, but how I see it playing out assuming we get our expected trades done and every other club holds their picks:

1. O’Sullivan (Richmond) - we will end up taking FOS due to his ceiling/talent
2. Trainor (North Melbourne) - they will realise they’re in desperate need of a gun key defender and will bite the bullet and reach after no takers for their pick
3. Smith (West Coast) - best available mid to complement Reid
4. Draper (Adelaide) - SA boy too hard to pass up plus will be best available
5. Armstrong (Melbourne) - urgent need and will assist JvR
6. Langford (Richmond) - sounds like we’re a massive fan so will be wrapped he “slipped” to us
7. Lalor (St Kilda) - need X factor and a mid with a point of difference. Ross gone and Steele getting on
8. Reid (Essendon) - will add class to their midfield/forward line but won’t be shocked if they reach for Shanahan or another KPP
9. Smillie (Richmond) - best available “slider”
10. Travaglia (Richmond) - the best of the next crop would be Travaglia but feel like we will go for a need. Potentially a KPF in Whitlock or Shanahan

If it's me I'm taking Lalor before Langford but solid list.

 

[Versailles]

If it's me I'm taking Lalor before Langford but solid list.

Likewise, just have a gut feel we rate Langford higher.

 

[richoatthedisco]

assuming we select midfielders with our first 3, what player would your choice for pick 10 be?

Berry

 

[Azzleberry]

1. Finn O’Sullivan
3. Jagga Smith or Harvey Langford
6. Sam Lalor or Murphy Reid

Bit to think about. I’m undecided at this stage. If we don’t select Finn at 1, I think he’s an option for North at 2. If we take Jagga at 3, does Harvey Langford fall to 6? I think now Sam Lalor and Murphy Reid are definitely there at 6. I doubted Lalor would be but I feel, without testing results, others will fail to bite. We can take the risk with this being our third pick of the draft (incredible outcome)

This is why I don’t want to trade for Pick 2. Let North reach there. If it’s Armstrong let them take him at 2. Opens up options we need down further. Much prefer 1, 3, 6 and 10 to 1, 2 and 3 in this draft.

At 10 so many possibilities. I will say best available. Also depends on what other picks we have coming. I’ll say at this stage if Toby Travaglia is available I’d almost bite here. Shanahan an option. People gonna slate me but I have Dattoli as an option here as well. Tauru? Love his athleticism. Could be anything.

My advice would be in our situation inside ten, take the next player on the whiteboard. We need talent desperately.

Completely agree.
1,3,6,10, ~16 (bris), 21 is a much better hand than 1,2,3,16,21

We just need intel on north at 2 and can use pick 1 in a way that ensures we get who we need at Pick 3 - assuming north wouldn't take a Jagga type.

@6 we will get to see if Armstrong is still there and if gone, we go best available again.

@10 you'd hope Shanahan is on the board but if he's also gone then that means we're getting another highly rated mid like a Lalor/Reid

 

[Azzleberry]

Not what I want, but how I see it playing out assuming we get our expected trades done and every other club holds their picks:

1. O’Sullivan (Richmond) - we will end up taking FOS due to his ceiling/talent
2. Trainor (North Melbourne) - they will realise they’re in desperate need of a gun key defender and will bite the bullet and reach after no takers for their pick
3. Smith (West Coast) - best available mid to complement Reid
4. Draper (Adelaide) - SA boy too hard to pass up plus will be best available
5. Armstrong (Melbourne) - urgent need and will assist JvR
6. Langford (Richmond) - sounds like we’re a massive fan so will be wrapped he “slipped” to us
7. Lalor (St Kilda) - need X factor and a mid with a point of difference. Ross gone and Steele getting on
8. Reid (Essendon) - will add class to their midfield/forward line but won’t be shocked if they reach for Shanahan or another KPP
9. Smillie (Richmond) - best available “slider”
10. Travaglia (Richmond) - the best of the next crop would be Travaglia but feel like we will go for a need. Potentially a KPF in Whitlock or Shanahan

I have it slightly different:

1. FOS (Richmond)
2. Armstrong (North- they want too much for this pick, so reach best KPF)
3. Jagga (Richmond- baker and 10 to WCE)
4. Draper (Adelaide)
5. Smillie (Melbourne)
6. Langford (Richmond- Rioli to GCS)
7. Trainor (St Kilda)
8. Lalor (St Kilda FA compo)
9. Shanahan (Essendon)
10. Reid (Richmond)

I'd prefer us to take a tall early but think Saints, North and Essendon will all reach for them

 

[Drunken Wookie]

I have it slightly different:

1. FOS (Richmond)
2. Armstrong (North- they want too much for this pick, so reach best KPF)
3. Jagga (Richmond- baker and 10 to WCE)
4. Draper (Adelaide)
5. Smillie (Melbourne)
6. Langford (Richmond- Rioli to GCS)
7. Trainor (St Kilda)
8. Lalor (St Kilda FA compo)
9. Shanahan (Essendon)
10. Reid (Richmond)

I'd prefer us to take a tall early but think Saints, North and Essendon will all reach for them

Need a tall in the top 10 I reckon. We cant just keep carrying on like we'll pick up the Lynch replacement in the arse end of the draft. Our forward line is completely bereft of genuine tall talent.

 

[THE_GUN]

Pick 1, Pick 3, Pick 6, Pick 10 is probable at this stage. From snippet of info.

Freo very confident Bolton deal is being agreed in principle. Framework at least been done.

Then that means they are paying the price Richmond will demand

 

[THE_GUN]

Need a tall in the top 10 I reckon. We cant just keep carrying on like we'll pick up the Lynch replacement in the arse end of the draft. Our forward line is completely bereft of genuine tall talent.

Im Happy to take 5/6 mids this draft and even Sharp next year or if we get #2 Ludowyke

But work on a gun KPF as a free agent in 3 years time

 

[Versailles]

I have it slightly different:

1. FOS (Richmond)
2. Armstrong (North- they want too much for this pick, so reach best KPF)
3. Jagga (Richmond- baker and 10 to WCE)
4. Draper (Adelaide)
5. Smillie (Melbourne)
6. Langford (Richmond- Rioli to GCS)
7. Trainor (St Kilda)
8. Lalor (St Kilda FA compo)
9. Shanahan (Essendon)
10. Reid (Richmond)

I'd prefer us to take a tall early but think Saints, North and Essendon will all reach for them

Just saw Trainor’s concussion issues. No chance he gets picked in the top ten. So yeah, North will go for Armstrong. Will Melbourne draft Smillie? They have enough of his type already I would’ve thought.

That St Kilda compo makes me sick.

 

[Azzleberry]

Need a tall in the top 10 I reckon. We cant just keep carrying on like we'll pick up the Lynch replacement in the arse end of the draft. Our forward line is completely bereft of genuine tall talent.

Completely agree. It could be the reason why we are trying to trade up.

If we don't take one in the first few then maybe we really rate Whitlock given how many bushies games we have been to.

No Whitlock then I can only assume
We have something in the works for a free agent because it's a glaring hole in our list.

Best offseason ever coming up!

 

[Azzleberry]

Just saw Trainor’s concussion issues. No chance he gets picked in the top ten. So yeah, North will go for Armstrong. Will Melbourne draft Smillie? They have enough of his type already I would’ve thought.

That St Kilda compo makes me sick.

Could be right on Smillie in which case Langford and Reid might go.

Disagree on Trainor - gonna have a lot of suitors and perfect battle replacement for Saints

 

[Mr Unbelievable]

Hypothetically speaking, we take FOS at 1. At pick 6 and 9 we are guaranteed to get two of the eight players I mentioned. Therefore, there is little point trading up one of those picks for 3. We will have an earlier pick but we lose a regarded player from the eight that I mentioned. It’s not worth it.

Hold our picks. Our draft hand will be excellent after the trades are done. Trading up is getting too cute.

Wait two more months and see how cute our trades get

 

[guruisatiger]

Sorry RT you’ve really lost me on this one. No one is giving them picks 21, 29, 39, 41 etc. for 14. They will have to trade out both 14 and at minimum a future 2nd to get the points in they need.

There is 100% chance they will trade 14 because they will get more points than it’s worth. My understanding is that they can live trade in more picks than they have list spots, I believe this is what GC did last year.

Their best option is probably to trade us pick 14 for picks 29, 39, 41 pre-draft. Those picks will end up being worth between 1300-1450 depending on FA compo. So roughly a 200-300 point increase for Brisbane. They also have 52 which will probably be worth around 200 points. Obviously 1500-1650 points is not necessarily enough to match an Ashcroft bid so when the draft starts they will live trade their future second for a couple of picks that give them more than 2000 points in total. Let’s say they bring in another 600 points so they have between 2100 and 2250 points.

That covers a bid at pick 2 but if they get lucky and Norf don’t bid and we have pick 3, they won’t get a bid until 4-5 which will cost them 1500-1600 points.

This leaves them with between 500-750 points to match Marshall. If Marshall is expected to go 15-25 they will probably let it ride and just take the negative points if he goes earlier which wouldn’t be more than a couple hundred.

If they get unlucky and Ashcroft bid is at pick 2, then they would potentially look at trading their future first. We might be able to jump in on something like this by trading our future second + 47 and 57 for their future first. That will be around 450 points worth and they will know our pick will be very early second round, only risk for them is if they suck next year.

Of course if they win the flag this year their pick could end up being 19 after FA compo and we could then look at getting both pick 19 and their future first. We would just need to obtain a pick or pick upgrades to get it done.

They will get an extra pick between 20 and 36 for Devon Robertson

 

[THE THIN MAN]

They will get an extra pick between 20 and 36 for Devon Robertson

No one is paying that much for luncheon .

 

[Noidnadroj]

No one really knows, but most guesses would be accurate, that he’s a self obsessed narcissist. Why the heck would we let Geelong walk all over us here? It also says to other players that unless the club who you want to go to is willing to play fair, you better be careful about requesting a trade because we won’t be pushed around.
Dogs did it to Dunkley then made the Grand Final the next year and he won the b&f the year later. He still left but Essendon didn’t get him and we got two more years from him, both he and club were professional about it. Geelong think they can just walk over small clubs, but they can GAGF.

Bailey Smith dominated a finals series in 2021 as part of their midfield mix, then soon after Bevo was playing him on flanks or the wing and almost no CBA’s. Thats why he wants out as he wants to play midfield.


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[Noidnadroj]

He has played 36 games for 26 goals.
Let's not act like he is an offensive weapon there is a role for him but he will never be a 30+ goal kicker.

Way too early for those assessments. Nearly every single small forward takes a few seasons to become regular goal kickers:

Bobby Hill: First 41 games = 34 goals. Next 47 games = 63 goals.

Owies: First 31 games = 29 goals. Next 41 games = 60 goals.

Brad Close: First 30 games = 17 goals. Next 70 games = 72 goals.

Willie Rioli: First 51 games = 60 goals. Next 37 games = 61 goals.

Charlie Cameron: first 49 games = 58 goals. Next 59 games after that = 103 goals.

Jack Higgins: First 43 games = 29 goals. Next 79 games = 129 goals.

Lachie Schulz: First 24 games = 16 goals. Next 86 games = 109 goals.

So MRJ had 19 goals in his first 29 games. Then 7 goals in his next 7 games. I see no reason why he can’t easily become a 30+ goal kicker if history of most small forwards is any guide.


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[TigerTime88]

If Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

is out of contract, I would be mentioning to him there is a big offer sitting there in the PSD only should the Geelong stuff fall through.

It won't but it's another way to weaponise how crap we will be by using cap that will otherwise go to Thomson Dow types.

Think a deal with Geelong will be done however.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

If we end up with the first 3 picks Brisbane would be quick to hand over their first pick if it meant we were not going to bid on Ashcroft. We could probably squeeze em for a future pick too.

Yep, they would have to.

 

[Bird Man]

Completely agree. It could be the reason why we are trying to trade up.

If we don't take one in the first few then maybe we really rate Whitlock given how many bushies games we have been to.

No Whitlock then I can only assume
We have something in the works for a free agent because it's a glaring hole in our list.

Best offseason ever coming up!

the finals have shown time and time again that all you need is a tall who competes. Gun small forwards win you games... Joe Berry would be my pick over the best tall. if we had a forward line that had Berry and Jobe Shanahan in it then I could enjoy watching games next year.

Nothing worse than having young mids kicking to the worst forward line in recent memory

 

[tigerdan]

I have it slightly different:

1. FOS (Richmond)
2. Armstrong (North- they want too much for this pick, so reach best KPF)
3. Jagga (Richmond- baker and 10 to WCE)
4. Draper (Adelaide)
5. Smillie (Melbourne)
6. Langford (Richmond- Rioli to GCS)
7. Trainor (St Kilda)
8. Lalor (St Kilda FA compo)
9. Shanahan (Essendon)
10. Reid (Richmond)

I'd prefer us to take a tall early but think Saints, North and Essendon will all reach for them

I think the Weagles will get a bit annoyed that we trade them pick 10 then use it ourselves.

 

[matt_y106]

I have it slightly different:

1. FOS (Richmond)
2. Armstrong (North- they want too much for this pick, so reach best KPF)
3. Jagga (Richmond- baker and 10 to WCE)
4. Draper (Adelaide)
5. Smillie (Melbourne)
6. Langford (Richmond- Rioli to GCS)
7. Trainor (St Kilda)
8. Lalor (St Kilda FA compo)
9. Shanahan (Essendon)
10. Reid (Richmond)

I'd prefer us to take a tall early but think Saints, North and Essendon will all reach for them

No way St Kilda take Trainir with his concussion history. McCartin is still too soon.


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