List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 9

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[panatha1908]

What I can see happening as opposed to what many want to see happen.

Baker & Graham to WCE.

Baker nets us a 2024 R2 & 2025 R2 pick. Graham compo is band 3 (currently pick 22)

Bolton requests a trade to Fremantle and we get their 2 best 2024 R1 picks which is currently pick 8 from Pies, and their own 2024 R1 pick which is currently 13. Those picks combined value Bolton at pick 2 in a single trade, which is fair value.

I know everyone wants 3 x R1 picks for Bolton but I don't see it happening. The club will not want to look like pricks by playing hard ball when the request is made on compassionate grounds. If the roles were reversed none of us would be happy seeing us give up 3 R1 picks for 1 player.

Suns will come for Daniel but he will stay close to family with Maurice already at the cub and Maria Rioli likely to join in the AFLW draft.

As far as retirements go I believe we will see announcements shortly for Grimes Martin & Naismith.

I believe we will give 1 year deals to Prestia McIntosh & Pickett to keep some maturity and leadership around. I also believe that we will re-sign Trezise Smith Maurice Lefau Campbell Green Dow Blight & Gray.

That would see the list changes for this off season as:

Retired: Grimes Martin Naismith
Trade/Free Agency: Baker Bolton Graham
Delisted: Colina Coulthard Cumberland

Draft Picks:
1, 8, 13, 21, 22, 23, 36, 39, 41, 54, 57, 63 & 68

Those in Italics available to trade up into R1 and/or R2 picks or 2025 picks.

2025 picks based on the above would be:

R1: Richmond
R2: Richmond and WCE
R3: Richmond
R4: Richmond

If the above was to pan out along those lines I believe we'll have done well, not ideal, but good enough to kick start the rebuild.

Oh and I know richoatthedisco doesn't like this already

Edited due to tigs2010 providing information regarding Fremantle 2025 picks.

Just looking at picks 1, 8, 13 , 21, 22, 23 in the 2019 draft, were Rowell, serong, Dow, Devon Robertson, Williams. Imagine we got them?

Those picks 20+ don't seem that useful but they say it's a deep draft this year.

 

[Groupie_]

This draft is a great one for multiple first and second round picks. The depth I’ve not seen before. So it is our opportunity to fast track our rebuild.

Problem is I don’t think the club sees our issues as a rebuild. So will believe holding onto players over 27 we can get back to challenging which would be hugely stupid.

People are too hung up on the fact the number one pick isn’t as strong as previous drafts. I couldn’t care less, we will get a gun at one. But what people should focus on is if we can take advantage of getting 4, 5 or even 6 top 25 picks it will be of high caliber.

 

[sanaya]

View attachment 2069934

all 4 of them would be in our best 22 at the moment

 

[Tigerbob]

View attachment 2069934

The start of our era. Now that was a draft that wasn’t one for multiple picks.

**** I loved Danny Meyer as a junior though. Thought he was going to be a long termer.

Goes to the question though, how vital is development in getting best out of talented juniors. With our VFL program now proven developer of talent, I’m sure we can get the best out of the multiple first rounders we hopefully we have.

 

[Noidnadroj]

7 picks in top 25 in an even draft would be a great infusion of youth. Amd that's about it unless balta leaves next year, otherwise we just will have a rd1, rd 2 etc, a much slower rebuild next year and year after, so 7 picks this year, and then 2 next and 2 the year after, so 11 top 25 picks we think in 3 years? We would have to hit every single one of those to start moving back up the ladder.

No way would we need 11 x ‘hits’ in those first 25 picks, and we are zero chance of getting 11 x hits. We should be hoping for 1 x A+. 3 x A-graders. 2 x B-graders. Anything more is a bonus.

Then we will get a range of hits from later in the draft, rookies, trades etc… and with a war chest in 2-3 years will supplement with a free agent or two.

I really hope we retain Bolton and Baker chooses to stay, with Rioli and Graham moving on.

Then it’s 1, 11, 20, 21, 22, with a point swap to get another mid-teens pick. And Bolton and Baker there for another 7-8 years with Baker taking over captaincy from Nank in 2026.

The way Baker celebrated his goal to keep us alive on the weekend, and the way he plays makes me think his loss will be felt really badly from a cultural and leadership perspective.

We can ‘bounce’ a lot quicker if we retain Baker and Bolton, and they’re young enough to be there playing central roles when we are hopefully back contending.


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[jthanos]

The start of our era. Now that was a draft that wasn’t one for multiple picks.

**** I loved Danny Meyer as a junior though. Thought he was going to be a long termer.

Goes to the question though, how vital is development in getting best out of talented juniors. With our VFL program now proven developer of talent, I’m sure we can get the best out of the multiple first rounders we hopefully we have.

Cant have nice kids a players, Meyer, Tambling and Polo were too nice, same RCD. All our champs had that 'campaigner' in them. Cotchin realised it aswell and changed his ways on the ground 2017 onwwards. We need boys talent/hardness/attitude.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Let’s say we get 6 x picks from 6-22 for losing the 4 x players.

If you go back through history of the draft and pick the BEST 6 from each draft in that 6-22 range, I’m not sure many net you a group of players equal or superior to Bolton, Baker, Rioli and Graham. And that’s with 6 x picks and hindsight letting you pick the very best 6 x players, ignoring the ‘worst’ 11.

In other words, we will get a net loss from these trades in regards to overall quality. However, what we will get is 12+ years out of any successful picks. Once again, there’s a very good reason clubs don’t proactively trade out quality players in their prime for picks…. basically ever.


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[YeOldTiger]

I would take him in a heartbeat

He'd be pretty handy steak knives. Reminds me of Lalor.

 

[Tigerbob]

Wtf? You can’t find an afl level player at pick 13? Piss off.


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They will find any reason to defend the muppet.

All those picks were smartass picks as well. Arrogant campaigner he was.

West Coast problem now. He ruined us.

 

[JR82]

What I can see happening as opposed to what many want to see happen.

Baker & Graham to WCE.

Baker nets us a 2024 R2 & 2025 R2 pick. Graham compo is band 3 (currently pick 22)

Bolton requests a trade to Fremantle and we get their 2 best 2024 R1 picks which is currently pick 8 from Pies, and their own 2024 R1 pick which is currently 13. Those picks combined value Bolton at pick 2 in a single trade, which is fair value.

I know everyone wants 3 x R1 picks for Bolton but I don't see it happening. The club will not want to look like pricks by playing hard ball when the request is made on compassionate grounds. If the roles were reversed none of us would be happy seeing us give up 3 R1 picks for 1 player.

Suns will come for Daniel but he will stay close to family with Maurice already at the cub and Maria Rioli likely to join in the AFLW draft.

As far as retirements go I believe we will see announcements shortly for Grimes Martin & Naismith.

I believe we will give 1 year deals to Prestia McIntosh & Pickett to keep some maturity and leadership around. I also believe that we will re-sign Trezise Smith Maurice Lefau Campbell Green Dow Blight & Gray.

That would see the list changes for this off season as:

Retired: Grimes Martin Naismith
Trade/Free Agency: Baker Bolton Graham
Delisted: Colina Coulthard Cumberland

Draft Picks:
1, 8, 13, 21, 22, 23, 36, 39, 41, 54, 57, 63 & 68

Those in Italics available to trade up into R1 and/or R2 picks or 2025 picks.

2025 picks based on the above would be:

R1: Richmond
R2: Richmond and WCE
R3: Richmond
R4: Richmond

If the above was to pan out along those lines I believe we'll have done well, not ideal, but good enough to kick start the rebuild.

Oh and I know richoatthedisco doesn't like this already

Edited due to tigs2010 providing information regarding Fremantle 2025 picks.

Those in italics will be traded for future picks i'd assume & we do it all again next yr, hopefully without the loss of such talent.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Let’s say we get 6 x picks from 6-22 for losing the 4 x players.

If you go back through history of the draft and pick the BEST 6 from each draft in that 6-22 range, I’m not sure many net you a group of players equal or superior to Bolton, Baker, Rioli and Graham. And that’s with 6 x picks and hindsight letting you pick the very best 6 x players, ignoring the ‘worst’ 11.

In other words, we will get a net loss from these trades in regards to overall quality. However, what we will get is 12+ years out of any successful picks. Once again, there’s a very good reason clubs don’t proactively trade out quality players in their prime for picks…. basically ever.


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Couldn't agree more.

Hoping to keep Baker particularly. He's the guy who is a future captain and sets the standards and the culture.

Bolton is the guy who might explode and kick three in a quarter and win you a final. He's 25. Imagine him at 29/30 when we're in a final and he's the difference. I'd hate for him to be the difference for the team we're playing that day. That's how footy stories tend to play out. Wouldn't be letting Shai go for anything under 2 first rounders and make them good ones. Bloody good ones. Very bloody good ones. Even then there's no guarantee you get a Shai Bolton with one of those picks. We will try to keep Shai but it's very possible he's gone if what we hear is true.

Rioli (if he requests a trade) is 28 next season and as much as I love him as a player and leader I can also see why he'd want to join the Suns and make some decisions that benefit his family with their NT connection. His currency and Suns need for him is premium and he would net us an excellent return. Thanks Daniel !

Graham is a professional footballer who's got the very best out of himself. A great soldier for us but he needs a change of scenery and could set himself up for life with his next deal, if it ain't with us. If we turned pick 53 into pick 22 or so and got two flags out of Jack then we are bushrangers and gallop off with big grins on our face. Thanks Jack !

Do everything to keep Baker and Shai because without them we have no XFactor, no matchwinners, no game changers. That will rip the heart out of the club.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let’s say we get 6 x picks from 6-22 for losing the 4 x players.

If you go back through history of the draft and pick the BEST 6 from each draft in that 6-22 range, I’m not sure many net you a group of players equal or superior to Bolton, Baker, Rioli and Graham. And that’s with 6 x picks and hindsight letting you pick the very best 6 x players, ignoring the ‘worst’ 11.

In other words, we will get a net loss from these trades in regards to overall quality. However, what we will get is 12+ years out of any successful picks. Once again, there’s a very good reason clubs don’t proactively trade out quality players in their prime for picks…. basically ever.


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I went to the 2017 draft because I know it has good depth.

At 6-22 the best 6(right now) were probably:

Naughton 9
D Fogarty
Bailey 15
Richards 16
Powell 19
Allen 21

But then even looking at the next 17 picked, 23-39 in that draft

Tim Kelly 24
Balta 25
Brent Daniels 27
Sam Taylor 28
T DeKoning 30
T McCartin 33

If you take six picks and get any 3 off either of those lists, you are probably doing as well as Bolton, Rioli, Baker, Graham.

 

[NZ_Tiger]

History of our rd 1 picks under Clarke:

2016 we took no 1st round pick.

2017 we took Higgins and Coleman-Jones and basically got our money back on both of them when traded out. So those are not failures.

2018 we took Collier-Dawkins at pick 20. Failure.

2019 we took Dow at pick 21. Failure.

2020 we took no first round pick.

2021 we took Gibcus and Brown with first round picks and both look very promising based on the footy we have seen from them.

2022 we took no first round pick.

2023 we took no first round pick.

So the whole premise of Clarke failing with his rd 1 picks boils down to a failed pick 20 and a failed pick 21 versus what look genuinely promising players at picks 9 and 17.

We traded 3 x rd 1 picks for Prestia, Taranto and Hopper. This policy can hardly be said to be in deficit overall.



History of drafting and trading of pick ranges under Clarke:

Pick ranges:

1-10 Gibcus 9 (+trades for Prestia 7, Hopper 8)

We appear to have got good value for these picks 1-10 overall

11-20 Collier-Dawkins 20, Brown 17(+ trade for Taranto 14) (Higgins 17 and Coleman-Jones 20 were neutral results)

We appear to have got good value for these picks 11-20 overall

21-30 Balta 25 Bolton 29 Dow 21 Sonsie 28 Banks 29 Clarke 30 (+trades for Caddy 26, Taranto 22)

We appear to have got brilliant value for these picks overall

31-40 Naish 34 McAuliffe 40(too early to tell) (+ trades for Hopper 34, Prestia 38)

tougher to judge, certainly not a wipeout, McAuliffe will swing this either way.

41-50 Ross 43, Cumberland 43, W Martin 44, Ralphsmith 46, Ryan 40, Kaleb Smith 49, Fawcett 43(+ pick 47 traded for Koschitzke)

Mixture but we look a decent chance to get at least 3 long term players from that lot.

Later picks during Clarke's tenure in charge, amongst many misses have secured us:

Graham, Stengle, Miller, Baker, Pickett, M Rioli, Mansell, Green, Campbell, Young, Trezise, Lefau

Plus several players we can't get a proper line on yet:

Hayes-Brown, Colina, Bauer.

I have bolded all the recruits we can see in hindsight were good use of the picks. There are already 23 of those from 8 drafts and a couple more will emerge, probably amounting to about 16 players that would be in our best 22 at any given time.

Our VFL system has also recruited players who are doing well at other clubs: Durham, D'Ambrosio, Mannagh, along with Young, Trezise on our list.

Part of our issue is we recruited too many good players and could not fit them all in, and finishing too high up the ladder meant we got trumped on a couple of our best VFL guys. We lost Ellis, Stengle, Markov, Chol, Coleman-Jones, Butler, Higgins and likely Durham and D'Ambrosio because we were too good a team and for no other reason. We only got a dividend out of Higgins and CCJ - and then only enough to repay the picks with which they were taken. So had we simply been a weaker team through the period these guys were recruited, we probably hold them all and obviously got access to some very high value picks and then if we just got the expected return for those, added to all of the above, you would say our recruiting under Clarke brained it.

How anyone could describe this as a failed recruiting regime is beyond me. There is a reason a very strong club in West Coast has taken Matthew Clarke as its list manager. They are not idiots.

That’s horrendous and you think that’s competence. Holy Christ. Clarke was also driving the bus when we picked Ellis the silky butterfly.


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[NZ_Tiger]

Not a cop out its a fact.
Can think of only 2 off the top of my head who you'd regard as Elite around those high teen picks.Rance & Fyfe.
Do the maths in 20yrs of the draft the strike rate is very low.
But your right in the sense that around that mark you should get a good player then yes Clarke has failed in that regard but as pointed out in another post he only had 3 of 6 drafts to play with and one of those was Higgins who is a good player who went at the right pick.

Again. You don’t have to find elite. You can’t keep pulling out complete busts. Ccj, Ellis, Lennon, RCD, Dow, Sonsie. There’s absolutely no excuse to whiff so badly.

How many other clubs miss so consistent in the first round as Clarke and fine eyes. Only some guy called gubby at the saints.


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[Tortured Tiger]

Again. You don’t have to find elite. You can’t keep pulling out complete busts. Ccj, Ellis, Lennon, RCD, Dow, Sonsie. There’s absolutely no excuse to whiff so badly.

How many other clubs miss so consistent in the first round as Clarke and fine eyes. Only some guy called gubby at the saints.


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How often do we have to rehash this stuff, it is all history now, let’s look forward not back.

 

[prodigy]

A benefit I never really considered when taking a large amount of high end picks into one draft is that they will all develop together and a lot of them will already be friends or friendly with each other. Which means retention should be higher unless we mix in a lot of interstate talent so who knows.
Rowell and Anderson were best mates going into their draft and they're still together as number 1 and 2 in the GC midfield.

 

[TigerPaul71]

Reading some of media and and Bigfooty about major talent leaving.
Just don't think it is a lot of damage to us.
If it was Bolton, Rioli, Graeme, there are still plenty of experienced premiership players on our list. if they net us 5 picks in the top 25. It is so worth it
Even if Baker went
Leadership to teach and help us go forward.
Nank, Vaustin, Prestia, Lynch, Broady, Mactosh, short, Hopper, Taranto.
Nine players premiership players that will have leadership, teachings with the players we already have, Brown, cambell, banks, ralphsmith, Mckaulf, steely, Ryan, Miller etc
I think Prestia is a must keep for his knowledge train with gun midfielders.
Add 6 high end players this year we will be okay.
TALK OF NORTHMELB, HAWTHORN, its not the same..
we are still in a better position than above

 

[tigs2010]

I went to the 2017 draft because I know it has good depth.

At 6-22 the best 6(right now) were probably:

Naughton 9
D Fogarty
Bailey 15
Richards 16
Powell 19
Allen 21

But then even looking at the next 17 picked, 23-39 in that draft

Tim Kelly 24
Balta 25
Brent Daniels 27
Sam Taylor 28
T DeKoning 30
T McCartin 33

If you take six picks and get any 3 off either of those lists, you are probably doing as well as Bolton, Rioli, Baker, Graham.

A lot of A Graders there.

2017 is also like this year in that one of the top prospects LDU was injured/struggled at Champs I believe like FOS this year and slid.

If we were to take an LDU, Naughton and 2 of Allen, Balta and Taylor we'd be laughing in 4-5 years. Hopefully we nail that pick 1 and he doesn't get away due to injury.

Bolton is going to be the hardest to replace from on field perspective with his age and he's so unique. I'd be happy to hold on there depending on the offer. Funnily enough there is a kid who plays like him but has done an ACL.

 

[fargothegreat]

A lot of A Graders there.

2017 is also like this year in that one of the top prospects LDU was injured/struggled at Champs I believe like FOS this year and slid.

If we were to take an LDU, Naughton and 2 of Allen, Balta and Taylor we'd be laughing in 4-5 years. Hopefully we nail that pick 1 and he doesn't get away due to injury.

Bolton is going to be the hardest to replace from on field perspective with his age and he's so unique. I'd be happy to hold on there depending on the offer. Funnily enough there is a kid who plays like him but has done an ACL.

2017 also had mids dominating the top 10 with a lot of good talls going later.

 

[Muddiemoose]

A benefit I never really considered when taking a large amount of high end picks into one draft is that they will all develop together and a lot of them will already be friends or friendly with each other. Which means retention should be higher unless we mix in a lot of interstate talent so who knows.
Rowell and Anderson were best mates going into their draft and they're still together as number 1 and 2 in the GC midfield.

Flip side is that potentially they all don’t get games or play in the position they want to resulting in them looking for opportunities elsewhere despite being very good players still

Similar to Durrsma from port or any number of GWS players

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That’s horrendous and you think that’s competence. Holy Christ. Clarke was also driving the bus when we picked Ellis the silky butterfly.


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If it is horrendous it won't be too difficult for you to find someone who has done better.

 

[SplintWhisky]

7 picks in top 25 in an even draft would be a great infusion of youth. Amd that's about it unless balta leaves next year, otherwise we just will have a rd1, rd 2 etc, a much slower rebuild next year and year after, so 7 picks this year, and then 2 next and 2 the year after, so 11 top 25 picks we think in 3 years? We would have to hit every single one of those to start moving back up the ladder.

I don't think they all have to be immediate hits but if they all play at least 50 games with half of them 100+ then we are on the right track. We really need to strike whilst these back end picks still are worth points. The AFL allowing NGA bidding has made this more of sellers market and it helps up enormously.

 

[theflea#3]

Reading some of media and and Bigfooty about major talent leaving.
Just don't think it is a lot of damage to us.
If it was Bolton, Rioli, Graeme, there are still plenty of experienced premiership players on our list. if they net us 5 picks in the top 25. It is so worth it
Even if Baker went
Leadership to teach and help us go forward.
Nank, Vaustin, Prestia, Lynch, Broady, Mactosh, short, Hopper, Taranto.
Nine players premiership players that will have leadership, teachings with the players we already have, Brown, cambell, banks, ralphsmith, Mckaulf, steely, Ryan, Miller etc
I think Prestia is a must keep for his knowledge train with gun midfielders.
Add 6 high end players this year we will be okay.
TALK OF NORTHMELB, HAWTHORN, its not the same..
we are still in a better position than above

Agreed, and keeping them maybe improves us by 2-4 wins? Rather 5-10 years out of contention but with gradual progression with an exciting group than 10-15-37 years of mediocrity. Rip the Band-Aid off say I.

 

[Morro]

A benefit I never really considered when taking a large amount of high end picks into one draft is that they will all develop together and a lot of them will already be friends or friendly with each other. Which means retention should be higher unless we mix in a lot of interstate talent so who knows.
Rowell and Anderson were best mates going into their draft and they're still together as number 1 and 2 in the GC midfield.

I was thinking the same, you hope they create a rare chemistry and desire to rebuild the club together.

 

[Stigmata]

Graham is a free agent so why would they trade for him? And getting him in does nothing to stop them also getting English.

Because it takes out the need to put a bid for Graham and it allows them to focus on the English bid.