List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 9

Who Will NOT Be Re-Signed?

  • Dylan Grimes

    Votes: 117 82.4%
  • Dion Prestia

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Dustin Martin

    Votes: 70 49.3%
  • Jack Ross

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Liam Baker

    Votes: 40 28.2%
  • Maurice Rioli

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Sam Naismith

    Votes: 111 78.2%
  • Matthew Coulthard (Rookie)

    Votes: 79 55.6%
  • Thomson Dow

    Votes: 24 16.9%
  • Kamdyn McIntosh

    Votes: 22 15.5%
  • James Trezise (Rookie)

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Noah Cumberland

    Votes: 96 67.6%
  • Mate Colina (Cat B Rookie)

    Votes: 99 69.7%
  • Mykelti Lefau (Rookie)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Seth Campbell (Rookie)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Steely Green

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kaleb Smith

    Votes: 4 2.8%
  • Marlion Pickett

    Votes: 27 19.0%
  • Jacob Blight (Rookie)

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Campbell Gray (Rookie)

    Votes: 3 2.1%
  • Jack Graham

    Votes: 54 38.0%

  • Total voters
    142
  • Poll closed .

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Is best mates with noah balta

did not know that.

Still he could have a crack at Brisbane and come back later, no need for us and Cam to rush and if he has the chance of more premiership glory at the Lions why step in his way?

looks like Rayner is breaking out a little like a late bloomer but the place to be for him seems to be the Lions atm
 
I went to the 2017 draft because I know it has good depth.

At 6-22 the best 6(right now) were probably:

Naughton 9
D Fogarty
Bailey 15
Richards 16
Powell 19
Allen 21

But then even looking at the next 17 picked, 23-39 in that draft

Tim Kelly 24
Balta 25
Brent Daniels 27
Sam Taylor 28
T DeKoning 30
T McCartin 33

If you take six picks and get any 3 off either of those lists, you are probably doing as well as Bolton, Rioli, Baker, Graham.

That is a strong draft, but sort of illustrates the point. Going to the strongest draft of the last decade, and picking the eyes out of the best 12 players from 9-33 and you get a great crop. There’s 13 other players left out, meaning if we had 6 x picks from 9-33 in the strongest recent draft available, ‘odds’ are we’d get 3 of the above list. With a bit of bad luck we could get 2.

And that’s in the strongest and deepest draft in recent history.

In my perfect world we lose Graham and Rioli and retain Bolton and Baker.

My strategy would be to offer GC Rioli, pick #1 and our F3 with us paying a high portion of Rioli’s salary for 3-years.

In return we get 6, 12, 20, 37 and a F1.

GC get pick #1, Lombard (top-10 quality) and Rioli whilst retaining cap space to retain other players.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
That is a strong draft, but sort of illustrates the point. Going to the strongest draft of the last decade, and picking the eyes out of the best 12 players from 9-33 and you get a great crop. There’s 13 other players left out, meaning if we had 6 x picks from 9-33 in the strongest recent draft available, ‘odds’ are we’d get 3 of the above list. With a bit of bad luck we could get 2.

And that’s in the strongest and deepest draft in recent history.

In my perfect world we lose Graham and Rioli and retain Bolton and Baker.

My strategy would be to offer GC Rioli, pick #1 and our F3 with us paying a high portion of Rioli’s salary for 3-years.

In return we get 6, 12, 20, 37 and a F1.

GC get pick #1, Lombard (top-10 quality) and Rioli whilst retaining cap space to retain other players.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I went to the strongest and deepest draft because that is how the 2024 draft is being talked up.

And the players I listed as the best 12 do not exhaust the good players drafted pick 6 onwards.

There are probably only 9 outright failures in the group of 34 players below. And another 3-4 only you might be a bit disappointed with. There are about 10 guns and another 10+ good footballers.

So in that deep draft, with 6 random picks between 6 and 39 you are expecting 1-2 guns, and likely 4 good players overall. Our picks would be skewed strongly towards the priority end of the range, so it would not be unreasonable to expect to get a group of players who turn out as good as Rioli, Bolton, Graham, Baker from 6 picks in the expected range if this 2024 draft is as good as is being touted. It also allows the club to try to focus on potential gun inside mids and key positions, something you basically cannot succeed without.

1723002199534.png
 
I went to the strongest and deepest draft because that is how the 2024 draft is being talked up.

And the players I listed as the best 12 do not exhaust the good players drafted pick 6 onwards.

There are probably only 9 outright failures in the group of 34 players below. And another 3-4 only you might be a bit disappointed with. There are about 10 guns and another 10+ good footballers.

So in that deep draft, with 6 random picks between 6 and 39 you are expecting 1-2 guns, and likely 4 good players overall. Our picks would be skewed strongly towards the priority end of the range, so it would not be unreasonable to expect to get a group of players who turn out as good as Rioli, Bolton, Graham, Baker from 6 picks in the expected range if this 2024 draft is as good as is being touted. It also allows the club to try to focus on potential gun inside mids and key positions, something you basically cannot succeed without.

View attachment 2071216

Selecting Jack Higgins and Noah Balta over Fritsch and TDK. Shows how hit and miss the draft is...
 
Selecting Jack Higgins and Noah Balta over Fritsch and TDK. Shows how hit and miss the draft is...
Does it?

Fritsch has had one elite year, other than that, he has been a good player, Higgins also been a good player

Balta is so far from a miss it isnt funny, both he and TDK can be elite in their settled positions.
 

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Rayner playing good footy at the moment. Probably because his big pay day will be coming up.

FA is definitely where it's at for acquiring talent rather than trading picks. He's probably not the right one though.

Shouldn't be targeting anyone until the 2026 off season at earliest. Need at least two years picking the best talent in the draft and depending on how they look start building a list to fit with them. If you nail those picks then look at FA along with possibly using draft picks to trade for a young star who wants to return home.

I'd also question anyone who came here in the next two years as money would be the only reason for coming.
 
Shouldn't be targeting anyone until the 2026 off season at earliest. Need at least two years picking the best talent in the draft and depending on how they look start building a list to fit with them. If you nail those picks then look at FA along with possibly using draft picks to trade for a young star who wants to return home.

I'd also question anyone who came here in the next two years as money would be the only reason for coming.
You get good players whenever you can. Rayner is a serious talent on the improve and is that power forward-mid hybrid that can bust games open. But you'd think other clubs suit him better. And I reckon he stays in Brisbane.
 
You get good players whenever you can. Rayner is a serious talent on the improve and is that power forward-mid hybrid that can bust games open. But you'd think other clubs suit him better. And I reckon he stays in Brisbane.

Rayner could be the type of player you want to target if you have a lot of young guns who aren't as physically developed, because he can really bust packs open. Will be interesting to see how he goes in the 2024 finals and what sort of action there is for him next year. if he has a big finals series he will make himself a seriously rich man.
 
Melbourne offering their first rounder (pick 7) for us to take on Oliver.

He is on 1m a year for the next 5 years until he is 32. No one should be touching him without being compensated given his form this season and more importantly issues off the ground.
The only way this works is as a straight swap for Hopper.

Which, by the way, I’m not in favour of and wouldn’t happen because Jacob is contracted. Why would you bring in an older mid when we already have three.
 
Melbourne can't give up their first with Oliver because they're going to give it to Port for Dan Houston.
 
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