List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

[_RT_]

New thread

List Mgmt. - Trade & Free Agency Part 9

www.bigfooty.com

 

[tiger_tough]

Its strange that Grimes hasnt announced his retirement

Only had surgery recently I think. Hasn't been ruled out for the season on the injury lists until this week. I expect it will come soon.

 

[Groupie_]

Sounds like Twomey is helping his Bombers shop the young kid around.

Either that, or the manager wants to get him elsewhere.

aints special

they take everyone that isnt wanted anymore

 

[_RT_]

I rate Phillips higher than most. But regardless, none of these posts decrying my suggestion of effectively swapping McIntosh and pick for Phillips and later picks are considering the fact this would appear the only probable way we get a return for McIntosh, ie by slightly overpaying for Phillips.

Your suggestion is

McIntosh & 21 for Phillips 58 & 73

On the points scale we're giving up 878 points for 179 points. That values Phillips as worth pick 28 on his own. That is massively overpaying for a kid that hasn't proved a thing since being drafted and on 2024 is being out performed by Dow a kid we may well delist at seasons end.

This is Dow v Phillips in 2024



And their careers



Do you think another club is going to give us a top 30 pick and a fringe player for Dow and a significant pick downgrade?

It won't happen, but if it did, then just like North, if we gave them that for Phillips, we'd struggle to stop ourselves from laughing while signing off on the deal.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Your suggestion is

McIntosh & 21 for Phillips 58 & 73

On the points scale we're giving up 878 points for 179 points. That values Phillips as worth pick 28 on his own. That is massively overpaying for a kid that hasn't proved a thing since being drafted and on 2024 is being out performed by Dow a kid we may well delist at seasons end.

This is Dow v Phillips in 2024

View attachment 2057511

And their careers

View attachment 2057513

Do you think another club is going to give us a top 30 pick and a fringe player for Dow and a significant pick downgrade?

It won't happen, but if it did, then just like North, if we gave them that for Phillips, we'd struggle to stop ourselves from laughing while signing off on the deal.

The way you have framed my suggestion is incorrect. My first go when I overlooked McIntosh being a free agent was McIntosh and the pick currently at 39 for Phillips and picks 58 & 67.

When it was correctly pointed out to me McIntosh is a FA I suggested if North offered enough to get us pick 40 as compensation(which my guess would be they would only do if loosely attached to another favourable trade between the clubs,) then we give up McIntosh, and the pick currently at 21, for Phillips, picks 40, pick 58 & 67.

As I said it depends on how you value Phillips. I think he is definitely worth something like that at least(it would probably be like getting him for McIntosh + a pick in the 40-45 range when all is said and done. It is not some outrageous deal where we are taking a big risk. We just paid effectively pick 45 for Koschitzke. Phillips is worth a bit more than Koschitzke on the market imo.

Re Phillips v Dow. Go to their respective best seasons and do the comparison. Phillips is a cut above Dow.

 

[Rich01]

There’s no basis to the Tsiatsas ‘story’.

I’m not sold on Philips but if we are into him I’d be thinking our third gets it done. Dow would have to make way on the list. We can’t carry so many questionable mids.

We need to find value in other clubs lists for cheap while also attacking the draft.

Tsiatas would be the wrong way to go. Contracted and holds trade value. Even if he was on the cheap I question his kicking.

 

[_RT_]

The way you have framed my suggestion is incorrect. My first go when I overlooked McIntosh being a free agent was McIntosh and the pick currently at 39 for Phillips and picks 58 & 67.

When it was correctly pointed out to me McIntosh is a FA I suggested if North offered enough to get us pick 40 as compensation(which my guess would be they would only do if loosely attached to another favourable trade between the clubs,) then we give up McIntosh, and the pick currently at 21, for Phillips, picks 40, pick 58 & 67.

As I said it depends on how you value Phillips. I think he is definitely worth something like that at least(it would probably be like getting him for McIntosh + a pick in the 40-45 range when all is said and done. It is not some outrageous deal where we are taking a big risk. We just paid effectively pick 45 for Koschitzke. Phillips is worth a bit more than Koschitzke on the market imo.

Re Phillips v Dow. Go to their respective best seasons and do the comparison. Phillips is a cut above Dow.

Still wouldn't be giving up pick 21 for a slight upgrade on Dow. I'd rather keep Dow and add another highly rated kid who slipped from the first round. If we get our trading right we could be in position to add a couple of highly rated KPF who are much more important to our future than what Phillips brings.

 

[Rich01]

The way you have framed my suggestion is incorrect. My first go when I overlooked McIntosh being a free agent was McIntosh and the pick currently at 39 for Phillips and picks 58 & 67.

When it was correctly pointed out to me McIntosh is a FA I suggested if North offered enough to get us pick 40 as compensation(which my guess would be they would only do if loosely attached to another favourable trade between the clubs,) then we give up McIntosh, and the pick currently at 21, for Phillips, picks 40, pick 58 & 67.

As I said it depends on how you value Phillips. I think he is definitely worth something like that at least(it would probably be like getting him for McIntosh + a pick in the 40-45 range when all is said and done. It is not some outrageous deal where we are taking a big risk. We just paid effectively pick 45 for Koschitzke. Phillips is worth a bit more than Koschitzke on the market imo.

Re Phillips v Dow. Go to their respective best seasons and do the comparison. Phillips is a cut above Dow.

We will get nothing for KMac- trade or compo.
Let’s be real in our expectations. It avoids disappointment come trade time.

 

[Groupie_]

send em jayden shot for phillips

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Still wouldn't be giving up pick 21 for a slight upgrade on Dow. I'd rather keep Dow and add another highly rated kid who slipped from the first round. If we get our trading right we could be in position to add a couple of highly rated KPF who are much more important to our future than what Phillips brings.

Will ask you the same question I asked Morro then. Is this because it is the first pick in the second round and you perceive that to have a substantially higher value than say the average of picks 20 & 22?

I am sure the club will be doing all their figures on what they can get at what pick and how good those players are for us versus a faltering player from another club with 4 years experience.

But short term, and medium term at least we appear to desperately require inside midfield depth. We probably want one fringe defensive orientated mid(Phillips) and one fringe line breaking, damaging type mid. Good luck finding the second at any affordable price, but Phillips is probably there for the taking.

 

[tigs2010]

Will ask you the same question I asked Morro then. Is this because it is the first pick in the second round and you perceive that to have a substantially higher value than say the average of picks 20 & 22?

I am sure the club will be doing all their figures on what they can get at what pick and how good those players are for us versus a faltering player from another club with 4 years experience.

But short term, and medium term at least we appear to desperately require inside midfield depth. We probably want one fringe defensive orientated mid(Phillips) and one fringe line breaking, damaging type mid. Good luck finding the second at any affordable price, but Phillips is probably there for the taking.

Take out convoluted deals and points value etc what pick would you trade for him straight swap?

 

[Groupie_]

Next year Dyson Sharp is a star worth tanking for. Absolute beast, strong overhead, thumping kick.

hopefully as good as his namesake, dyson heppell

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We will get nothing for KMac- trade or compo.
Let’s be real in our expectations. It avoids disappointment come trade time.

If we just let him go as a free agent without it being attached to any other deals, I agree with you. Thus, my suggestion.

 

[tigs2010]

hopefully as good as his namesake, dyson heppell

Has long blonde hair. Ffs you might be onto something

 

[Groupie_]

whats this guys mail like ? ive seen him spruiking stuff on twitter

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Take out convoluted deals and points value etc what pick would you trade for him straight swap?

I would give any pick in the 30's for an uncontracted Phillips without hesitation. I accept others think he is worth nothing above about pick 40, but that is the value I would place on him.

 

[tiger_tough]

whats this guys mail like ? ive seen him spruiking stuff on twitter

No idea. Sometimes he seems to have contacts, sometimes he seems to be talking shit.

 

[tigs2010]

whats this guys mail like ? ive seen him spruiking stuff on twitter

He was acting like an expert a few weeks ago while getting basic shit wrong so going to say probably not interested in Phillips.

 

[Groupie_]

No idea. Sometimes he seems to have contacts, sometimes he seems to be talking shit.

prob a shite talker and a half then

 

[tiger_tough]

prob a shite talker and a half then

Someone was talking him up here. Grockadok I think it was.

Pretty sure he linked us to McAuliffe before the draft last year though, so he did get something right.

 

[_RT_]

Will ask you the same question I asked Morro then. Is this because it is the first pick in the second round and you perceive that to have a substantially higher value than say the average of picks 20 & 22?

I am sure the club will be doing all their figures on what they can get at what pick and how good those players are for us versus a faltering player from another club with 4 years experience.

But short term, and medium term at least we appear to desperately require inside midfield depth. We probably want one fringe defensive orientated mid(Phillips) and one fringe line breaking, damaging type mid. Good luck finding the second at any affordable price, but Phillips is probably there for the taking.

It's simple, pick 21 is too high a value to trade for a bust.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Just had a good read of the North board Will Phillips thread.

It seems pretty clear he does not have the level of energy/fitness to display his 1 wood, dynamic contest to contest running. He has had 2 bouts of glandular, and is now possibly suffering chronic fatigue. I would expect this would come attached to struggling to recover between games.

Jack Ziebell

7

Jack Ziebell

Age

33

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.1

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.6

5star

MG

369.5

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.6

3star

MG

125.8

2star

D

16.2

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.0

5star

at Richmond will be all over the issues he has faced and how good he is etc.

It just appears to me a straight out punt on him recovering full energy levels. If he doesn't, he is not an AFL footballer. If he does, he would probably be worth a pick in the 15-20 range, at least. Because of the risks around his energy levels, you are obviously going to get him for less than his fully fit value.

Richmond will no doubt get advice on this - as I am sure North has done. But because the reward is potentially very high if you get him right, to me it is worth taking a punt. We are I think in a decent position to take that punt if we can get the right deal for him.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It's simple, pick 21 is too high a value to trade for a bust.

Well of course I would not trade pick 21 for him outright. Thus my suggestion of attaching it loosely to a hefty free agency bid for McIntosh. If not that, then something else. Or just offer a later pick.

 

[_RT_]

I would give any pick in the 30's for an uncontracted Phillips without hesitation. I accept others think he is worth nothing above about pick 40, but that is the value I would place on him.

With Phillips if it got down to the end of trading and we had a 3rd or 4th round pick left after stocking up with 5 picks inside the first 2 rounds, I wouldn't be against the club throwing out a token deal for him, but I wouldn't be giving up anything inside the first 2 rounds, not in this draft anyway. That is how you get value from our draft hand, not by throwing good picks after players with question marks.

 

[tunksy]

About to sign a 3 year deal

wash your mouth out!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

With Phillips if it got down to the end of trading and we had a 3rd or 4th round pick left after stocking up with 5 picks inside the first 2 rounds, I wouldn't be against the club throwing out a token deal for him, but I wouldn't be giving up anything inside the first 2 rounds, not in this draft anyway. That is how you get value from our draft hand, not by throwing good picks after players with question marks.

Will be one of many interesting things to watch this one. North will be looking for moves that will make them competitive in the short and medium term now. So you can see why he might not suit them even if they thought he had strong potential upside. Most of the North board seem to think a 3rd round pick would be adequate. Our rd 3 pick for him would be a fantastic trade imo, even allowing for the stronger than normal chance he is a total bust.