Trade period / National Draft 2024

[_RT_]

 

[guruisatiger]

You might say Tasmania are closer to winning a premiership the. What Richmond are right now.

No

 

[Barnzy]

Over the next few years we need to draft Mids & KPP only, no more flankers. Especially with Tassie coming in, we need to get into the draft as much as possible. Then when Tassie enter we can target free agency & use what ever picks we manage to scrounge when Tassie take the majority of the draft picks.

Correct.

Good teams and good recruitment offices load up on mids and then push the additional mids with a bit of pace and skill to a flank or wing. They don't draft flankers.

If you draft a flanker or wingman that just means you're drafting a junior deficient in ball winning ability with major flaws who was pushed out to the flanks by superior juniors. Think about it, if you're drafting a kid who was not good enough to play midfield over other kids...how is that going to work at AFL level?

This has been true for many years. Another huge flaw from our previous recruiting boss who had no idea what he was doing

 

[bc27]

Essentially Richmond have the next three drafts to completely overhaul this list from being an ageing tired list.

Tigers in 2024 are 5th oldest list in the AFL only behind Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane who are all in the premiership window.
(North 18th, Hawks 17th, West Coast 16th).

Looking back…

In 2011 when GWS were entering the competition they recieved draft concessions;
“GWS will have the first selection in each of the three rounds in this year’s draft. In the first round of player selection, GWS have nine of the first fifteen picks including: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15.”

They were also given a “Mini Draft” of four 17 year olds which were needed to be traded to other teams during draft week.

They also had access to signing 16 uncontractes AFL players.

Also they were zoned to have access to up to 16 NSW players and access to NSW players year going forward.

Those were extraordinarily huge concessions. During this time the Melbourne Football Club were cemented to the bottom 3 of the ladder with very little talent going through that list as an example as a club that were heavily affected by the introduction of the new clubs.

The Richmond list management will be well aware of what is coming and I just can’t see that in any way there won’t be a HUGE list overhaul at the end of this coming year. Personally I can’t see a world where there isby going to be multiple past premiership players moved on and large amounts of capital taken into the next three drafts.

The first group that will be dangled out for picks or moved into retirement would be:
Martin 32
Prestia 31
Grimes 32
Lynch 31
Macintosh 30
Pickett 32
Broad 31
All of which will be 34-35 years old when Tasmania come in. You pretty much can not hold on to any of these guys over the next three years by costing you spots on the list to take draft picks and develop youth before Tassie comes in.

After these you’re looking at potentially finding value in:
Nankervis 29
Short 28
Vlastuin 29
D.Rioli 27
Hopper 27

Add Graham and Baker who may move on end of this year.

This should have started last draft but Dimma’s decision on having another crack with Hopper and Taranto stopped that.

 

[bc27]

Correct.

Good teams and good recruitment offices load up on mids and then push the additional mids with a bit of pace and skill to a flank or wing. They don't draft flankers.

If you draft a flanker or wingman that just means you're drafting a junior deficient in ball winning ability with major flaws who was pushed out to the flanks by superior juniors. Think about it, if you're drafting a kid who was not good enough to play midfield over other kids...how is that going to work at AFL level?

This has been true for many years. Another huge flaw from our previous recruiting boss who had no idea what he was doing

Tasmania won’t only have access to draft concessions. They will have first access to the better uncontracted free agents aswell.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

No

Prolly right...GWS and GCS are a mile away from winning a GF...
Port didn't take too long...
Getting harder and harder for the intro sides...

 

[bc27]

In my opinion If a team came to the club at trade time with a godfather offer for Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

then they would be negligent not look at it.

 

[Morro]

In my opinion If a team came to the club at trade time with a godfather offer for Shai Bolton then they would be negligent not look at it.

What would you consider "Godfather" because I cannot think of a realistic offer that we should even listen to.

 

[_RT_]

Trade & Draft Dates To Know

Monday October 7th 9am - Trade Period Begins

Wednesday October 16th - Trade Period Ends

Wednesday November 20th - First Round Of National Draft

Thursday November 21st - Remainder Of National Draft

Friday November 22nd - PSD & Rookie Drafts

 

[Vassp]

Essentially Richmond have the next three drafts to completely overhaul this list from being an ageing tired list.

Tigers in 2024 are 5th oldest list in the AFL only behind Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane who are all in the premiership window.
(North 18th, Hawks 17th, West Coast 16th).

Looking back…

In 2011 when GWS were entering the competition they recieved draft concessions;
“GWS will have the first selection in each of the three rounds in this year’s draft. In the first round of player selection, GWS have nine of the first fifteen picks including: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15.”

They were also given a “Mini Draft” of four 17 year olds which were needed to be traded to other teams during draft week.

They also had access to signing 16 uncontractes AFL players.

Also they were zoned to have access to up to 16 NSW players and access to NSW players year going forward.

Those were extraordinarily huge concessions. During this time the Melbourne Football Club were cemented to the bottom 3 of the ladder with very little talent going through that list as an example as a club that were heavily affected by the introduction of the new clubs.

The Richmond list management will be well aware of what is coming and I just can’t see that in any way there won’t be a HUGE list overhaul at the end of this coming year. Personally I can’t see a world where there isby going to be multiple past premiership players moved on and large amounts of capital taken into the next three drafts.

The first group that will be dangled out for picks or moved into retirement would be:
Martin 32
Prestia 31
Grimes 32
Lynch 31
Macintosh 30
Pickett 32
Broad 31
All of which will be 34-35 years old when Tasmania come in. You pretty much can not hold on to any of these guys over the next three years by costing you spots on the list to take draft picks and develop youth before Tassie comes in.

After these you’re looking at potentially finding value in:
Nankervis 29
Short 28
Vlastuin 29
D.Rioli 27
Hopper 27

Add Graham and Baker who may move on end of this year.

This should have started last draft but Dimma’s decision on having another crack with Hopper and Taranto stopped that.

you can add TT to that list, we might be at least get something for him.

 

[bc27]

What would you consider "Godfather" because I cannot think of a realistic offer that we should even listen to.

Just depends on where the teams fall with picks essentially.

If you were basing potential hypotheticals off current picks and players then Fremantle would be in an interesting postion. They have 5,14,18 as first round selections currently.

Let’s say they offer 5, 14, 18 and their 2025 first (or second) for Baker and Bolton then I would say the club would have to entertain the idea?

 

[bc27]

Going to be very interesting how teams handle their “future” picks in the year before Tasmania come into the league.

Future picks may be pretty worthless in 2027

 

[guruisatiger]

Just depends on where the teams fall with picks essentially.

If you were basing potential hypotheticals off current picks and players then Fremantle would be in an interesting postion. They have 5,14,18 as first round selections currently.

Let’s say they offer 5, 14, 18 and their 2025 first (or second) for Baker and Bolton then I would say the club would have to entertain the idea?

No not both of baker and Bolton
Only 1 would I trade and Bolton wants to stay in Melbourne

 

[Morro]

Just depends on where the teams fall with picks essentially.

If you were basing potential hypotheticals off current picks and players then Fremantle would be in an interesting postion. They have 5,14,18 as first round selections currently.

Let’s say they offer 5, 14, 18 and their 2025 first (or second) for Baker and Bolton then I would say the club would have to entertain the idea?

just doesnt seem realistic to me.

 

[Hamsatma]

just doesnt seem realistic to me.

I doubt it would happen too, but it is pretty similar to what we did with GWS for taranto and hopper (although perhaps freo would consider it a cautionary tale).

Given where we're at we have to consider all options and there would certainly be positives in terms of bringing in young talent, but I think we should be cautious about trading out too many players in baker/bolton age bracket. If we rebuild well by nailing our picks (big IF) then guys in that age bracket will be crucial for mentoring our draftees and would likely still be playing at a good level in 5 years when some of these younger guys could be helping us push back up the ladder. If we cut out a large chunk of our 25/26yo talent then when dusty and co retire our age profile will drop off a cliff and teams rarely do well when that happens.

 

[bc27]

just doesnt seem realistic to me.

It probably isn’t realistic but the point remains that clubs in Richmond’s position with one of the oldest lists in the league and now also one of the least talented…are going to have to get extremely creative during the off season over the next 3-4 seasons to not be left behind.

 

[bc27]

I doubt it would happen too, but it is pretty similar to what we did with GWS for taranto and hopper (although perhaps freo would consider it a cautionary tale).

Given where we're at we have to consider all options and there would certainly be positives in terms of bringing in young talent, but I think we should be cautious about trading out too many players in baker/bolton age bracket. If we rebuild well by nailing our picks (big IF) then guys in that age bracket will be crucial for mentoring our draftees and would likely still be playing at a good level in 5 years when some of these younger guys could be helping us push back up the ladder. If we cut out a large chunk of our 25/26yo talent then when dusty and co retire our age profile will drop off a cliff and teams rarely do well when that happens.

Only difference I guess is that GWS we’re under salary cap pressure apparently.

But it looks to have worked out well for them.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Another strong game from Taj Hotton who continues his hot start to the season. A late call up for the Academy, he quickly proved he belonged, consistently looking the most dangerous forward for his team and finishing among the best.

Amazing to think he was a late call up. It goes to show that a few months can mean a lot when these kids start maturing.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Don't expect Tassie to get the same kind of ridiculous draft concessions as the Giants and the Suns in the first year especially. Dillion (I think it was) made a point of this a few weeks ago that they learned a lot from the heavily compromised drafts and that it was likely that Tassie will get concessions spread out over more drafts but would get access to more mature age players from the beginning. They realise that you can't just flood the list with kids and expect them to all be successful straight away.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Going to be very interesting how teams handle their “future” picks in the year before Tasmania come into the league.

Future picks may be pretty worthless in 2027

From what I understand Tassie are going to be encouraged/incentivised to trade some of their good draft picks for more mature young/20s talent rather than just taking 6 or 8 or 10 or so kids from one draft.

 

[TheOptimum18]

Hypothetical here
Let's say lions finish 3rd this year
There first pick is 16 worth 1,067 points
...
If we traded pick 24 + 42 +50 =1,470 for pick 16
Is this to much or not enough the difference is 403 points
Around pick 42

On the basis that the Lions finish 3rd, the ladder stays at it currently does, but with clubs starting from Port and ending with Essendon all moving down 1 place, the Lions will have picks 16, 54, 58 and 72 (a total of 409 points if you exclude pick 16).

If Levi Ashcroft is bidded on within the first 5 picks on draft night, then Lions will need to pay the following in points (with the 20% discount applied):

• Pick 1: 2400 points (1991 taking into account the 409 points Lions already have)
• Pick 2: 2014 points (1605)
• Pick 3: 1788 points (1378)
• Pick 4: 1628 points (1219)
• Pick 5: 1503 points (1094)

Taking into account the ladder scenario described above, we would have:

• Pick 4: 2034 points
• Pick 24: 785 points
• Pick 31: 606 points
• Pick 41: 412 points
• Pick 42: 395 points
• Pick 49: 287 points
• Pick 60: 146 points
• Pick 62: 123 points
• Pick 71: 29 points

Using your example of picks 24, 42 and 49 (in this scenario), that would be an equivalent of 1467 points, so enough for Brisbane to match at pick 3.

How many more points do we need above 1,067 points
To make it worth lions trading pick 16 to us

When we talk about trading picks in terms of points for matching bids, the number of points associated with Brisbane's pick 16 (in this scenario) is often irrelevant, in my opinion. The important number is the number of points the Lions need so they can match a bid at a given spot in the draft (so 1991 points if they believe the team with pick 1 will bid there, 1605 points if they believe the earliest bid is at pick 2, etc...).

 

[TheOptimum18]

Going to be very interesting how teams handle their “future” picks in the year before Tasmania come into the league.

Future picks may be pretty worthless in 2027

Also need to take into account what the AFL does with the bidding system in terms of F/S, NGAs, Academies etc..., which won't come into effect this season, but potentially will for next season.

 

[Bird Man]

Wouldnt mind a Harley reid type after a bad year

 

[JR82]

Just depends on where the teams fall with picks essentially.

If you were basing potential hypotheticals off current picks and players then Fremantle would be in an interesting postion. They have 5,14,18 as first round selections currently.

Let’s say they offer 5, 14, 18 and their 2025 first (or second) for Baker and Bolton then I would say the club would have to entertain the idea?

Problem with this is, in order to get even a breakeven from the deal u need to find a play that is on par with Bolton, who is consistency away from being in the conversation for best player in the comp. There is no deal i'd look at for Bolton. As it is we should be able to get another 5/30 haul. but keep in mind you have to be able to keep them all long term, if we nail each pick we'll have to be smart with our cap going fwd or we'll lose some players we simply must keep due to cap cap constraints. We can't be going down the Hawks path surely, they have given us a lesson on how not to do it, let alone Norf. Oh & if we go putting Taranto & Hopper on the table then we can forget being able to attract decent players in the future if that's how the Club would treat them.

 

[THE_GUN]

Hypothetical here
Let's say lions finish 3rd this year
There first pick is 16 worth 1,067 points
How many more points do we need above 1,067 points
To make it worth lions trading pick 16 to us
If we traded pick 24 + 42 +50 =1,470 for pick 16
Is this to much or not enough the difference is 403 points
Around pick 42

Not enough imo but that all depends on who else has the points to trade them

We are lucky in that Carlton x 2 Brisbane Gold Coast & Crows all have F/S academy kids and will need points

 

[THE_GUN]

Wouldnt mind a Harley reid type after a bad year

We get him in 3 years and give him #4