List Mgmt. Trade Targets 2016

[Powerstufff]

Did Trengrove sign a new contract? Ive heard vic teams are into him

Per Contracted Players not something we have to worry about until the end of the year.

 

[Portmanteau]

Malcolm Gladwell referred to an academic study, The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft on his Revisionist History podcast about an academic study done into the value bestowed upon NFL picks. Generally speaking, it found that high picks were overvalued, late first and second round picks underrated; and teams give away future firsts too easily (preferring short-term returns, ie gaining an established player).

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/downloads/thaler_losers_curse.pdf

In short, we should definitely trade Hartlett for a future first if offered. Delayed gratification, but would reap huge benefits long-term. I'd also be in favour of further asset accumulation using this method - Ah Chee, O'Shea for future picks? Would teams that we trade with be willing to trade a future second rather than a current third?

 

[Papa G]

I really like the idea of Richmond's 2017 first rounder but it would cut me deep to see Hamish in Yellow and Black.

The 2 teams I'd love to see Hamish play for (outside of what should be his destination Gold Coast) is Richmond and Norf as neither will be in premiership contention in the next 5 years and it won't come back and bite us on the arse.

 

[Waspy79]

Malcolm Gladwell referred to an academic study, The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft on his Revisionist History podcast about an academic study done into the value bestowed upon NFL picks. Generally speaking, it found that high picks were overvalued, late first and second round picks underrated; and teams give away future firsts too easily (preferring short-term returns, ie gaining an established player).

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/downloads/thaler_losers_curse.pdf

In short, we should definitely trade Hartlett for a future first if offered. Delayed gratification, but would reap huge benefits long-term. I'd also be in favour of further asset accumulation using this method - Ah Chee, O'Shea for future picks? Would teams that we trade with be willing to trade a future second rather than a current third?

If the trend of droughts being broken continues next year then Tigers are destined to win a final in 2017

 

[Sewer de Lance]

Gut feel is that HH will nominate the Saints. Pick 10 would be fair, maybe slightly overs given HH output over the years.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Gut feel is that HH will nominate the Saints. Pick 10 would be fair, maybe slightly overs given HH output over the years.

Certainly won't be getting much from Essendon. Dodoro would want half of your best 22 bundled together for the number one pick. I hope our club doesn't have to deal with that D*******.

 

[Papa G]

Anything in the top dozen would be a steel and I'm not one of those people that rates picks higher than existing and proven footballers. The issue is Hamish at best has proven over a full season, over 7 or so years to be nothing more than a B grader. So in my opinion a pick in the top 12 will give us a 50/50 chance in picking up a B grader or better. After that the odds start falling away and the risk/reward strategy starts to drop dramatically. Unless of course there is a bigger deal in play.

 

[agmsy]

So in my opinion a pick in the top 12 will give us a 50/50 chance in picking up a B grader or better.

I don't think this adequately captures the downside risk of a draft pick. It's not sufficient to say that we are as likely as not to pick up a player at least as good as Hartlett - you also need to consider how much better or how much worse a player is likely to be. The difference between Hartlett and an A-grade superstar is much less than the difference between Hartlett and (cherry picking some recent busts) Lewis Johnston (pick 12, 2008)/Anthony Morabito (pick 4, 2009)/Jordan Gysberts (pick 11, 2009)/Daniel Gorringe (pick 10, 2010)/Lucas Cook (pick 12, 2010)/Troy Menzel (pick 11, 2011).

 

[SureBuddy]

I would be so incredibly pissed off if we traded hartlett for richmonds 2017 first rounder. We would not get any benefit for 3 years minimum, by then our stars will be in their twilight years. Makes no sense at all.

 

[1954]

Agree with the above, draft picks can be way over valued as opposed to a proven player.
Some picks can be seen as certainties to make it at AFL level, but obviously many never live up to expectations, and fade into oblivion.

Re Hartlett, it is hard to put a value on him, as like many of his team mates he has had two ordinary seasons in a row, has become injury prone, and his once booming kick has all but disappeared.

Given those two ordinary seasons it's hard to know where the list is at, for what ever reasons the two quick fixes ( Ryder and Dixon ) so far haven't worked out, but I guess time will tell.
Paddy should be rearing to go, but it won't surprise me at all that if after a year on the side lines he takes at least 6 or more games to get back full touch, and Charlie just HAS to hold onto his marks!

 

[Papa G]

It's odd to be writing/reading about HH when I'm actually sitting behind him in a cafe (and yes I deliberately sat there to evesdrop). Ah he just left. Nothing to report.

 

[chadleverington]

Kane mentions that we have 9 players on over 500k and the cap is bursting, which if so is not great list management.

 

[Adz2332]

happily give him up for richmonds future first!!

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Kane mentions that we have 9 players on over 500k and the cap is bursting, which if so is not great list management.

To be fair he said "the reports are that"... meaning he doesn't know himself, just going by what the media is saying

 

[Adz2332]

few teams interested in amon... and is on the table

 

[David Puddy]

few teams interested in amon... and is on the table

Melbourne and Saints apparently. Why would we be looking at moving him on when he's one of the only blokes in the side that can kick the thing?

 

[Steve Dore]

Kane mentions that we have 9 players on over 500k and the cap is bursting, which if so is not great list management.

Kane is quoting Damien Barrett in an attempt to give himself some credibility.

..... and our celery cap is "exploding" not just "bursting".

 

[Papa G]

God I hate Kane Cornes.

 

[Andre]

The more i hear about Barrett the more interested i am in us getting him in.

Praising anyone named Barrett will take some work though.

I'd be at games going -
Go Barr ... Barra .... Bbbb ..
Great pass Ba ... Barra .... <Relax you can do it> Great work Bar ... Baa...

I figure it'd take me to at least his 5th game to feel comfortable.

 

[Rankor]

Does anyone think we will win a premiership before Boak, Gray and Co. are finishing up?

If it's unrealistic then I think we should be aiming for our current 18-24yr old players to be our mature player when the window opens.

Then I'm all for loading up with future picks in next year's draft to then have these guys complement our future mature players.

If we think we can challenge before Boaky and Co. finish up then try get picks this year.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Boak, Gray, Hartlett, Ryder and Dixon would be the only players on $500k

Don't thinks wines would be on that yet... Wingard I doubt as well but could be.

 

[Pappagallo]

Anything in the top dozen would be a steel and I'm not one of those people that rates picks higher than existing and proven footballers. The issue is Hamish at best has proven over a full season, over 7 or so years to be nothing more than a B grader. So in my opinion a pick in the top 12 will give us a 50/50 chance in picking up a B grader or better. After that the odds start falling away and the risk/reward strategy starts to drop dramatically. Unless of course there is a bigger deal in play.

I'll be sad to see him go but I think HH is a prime example of a trade that will yield a return that is higher than his actual output, so it's the right call unless we blow the pick on a reach.

 

[powermacs]

Does anyone think we will win a premiership before Boak, Gray and Co. are finishing up?

If it's unrealistic then I think we should be aiming for our current 18-24yr old players to be our mature player when the window opens.

Then I'm all for loading up with future picks in next year's draft to then have these guys complement our future mature players.

If we think we can challenge before Boaky and Co. finish up then try get picks this year.

After we get through the **** up that the AFL created with the 2 new teams the comp will be very even. If things fall into place, like the bye for the dogs, we could be as good a chance as anyone.

 

[Pappagallo]

After we get through the **** up that the AFL created with the 2 new teams the comp will be very even. If things fall into place, like the bye for the dogs, we could be as good a chance as anyone.

You mean after they both fold and we send North to Tasmania?

 

[powermacs]

You mean after they both fold and we send North to Tasmania?

Na, when they no longer have 34 first round draft picks banked up and when players leaving finally hurts them. Also tassie is to good for Norf, ****ers should've been sent to Sydney.