They may be $12 to miss top 10 but what’s going to replace them? Another Billie Eilish song or Hilltop Hoods?
I’d rather just back BOP at this stage. Holding that number one spot steadily at 16%.
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They may be $12 to miss top 10 but what’s going to replace them? Another Billie Eilish song or Hilltop Hoods?
I’d rather just back BOP at this stage. Holding that number one spot steadily at 16%.
- Apr 1, 2013
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Yeah I guess. I just compare them to Ruby Fields and Wafia from last year, who looked entrenched in the top 5 but just stopped polling at some point. I'd say Jungle Giants are highly likely to come back in, Post Malone isn't far off, possibly Hilltop Hoods but still need Pub Feed and Purple Hat to drop out. If it's $12, you only need one of G Flip/Thelma to drop out and you're well up though.
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Can't believe how badly Dance Monkey is going though. It will probably be 6th/7th pretty soon. Surely odds will drift a bit. How's the $70k guy feeling now?
Thankful for corp max bet limits and that every word he said was absolute tripe
ye olde mole
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Very fair point/question....a few of these sound/feel like top ten songs to me - but I've been wrong before...at least twice
* Pnau - Solid Gold
* Post Malone - Circles
* Billy Eilish - Bury a Friend
And this is a bit of an odd suggestion, but Robbery by Lime Cordiale might go close (I know....I'm certifiably nutso)
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- #181
agree with bury a friend top 10 chance based on the internationals/billie bulking factor.Very fair point/question....a few of these sound/feel like top ten songs to me - but I've been wrong before...at least twice
* Pnau - Solid Gold
* Post Malone - Circles
* Billy Eilish - Bury a Friend
And this is a bit of an odd suggestion, but Robbery by Lime Cordiale might go close (I know....I'm certifiably nutso)
either way the odds theyve offered are overs. $6.50 and $12 should be more like $3-$4 in my books. Like Ronping said, strike 1 and you win.
I even threw a few $ on the songs paying $2-$3. more gambling for fun than anything but know they will be thereabouts - hilltop, sofie tukker, mallrat, the chats. Warm Tunas predicted 15/20 for the top 20 last year so will at least get a couple of these right you would think.
Its promising to see Sportsbet offer odds like this after the top 10 market looked dreadful. Hope Beteasy releases some more markets soon too.
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- #182
how are your bets leaning? are you thinking of putting some more on Bad Guy soon to balance it out? do you think Bad Guy will go above $5 again? edit. just noticed its $5.50 now so yes. lol
Does anyone think BOP could go to a less than $2 favourite in this?
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Probably have to get a bit more on bad guy with the price it's at, although it's drifting pretty much every day on Beteasy so tempted to wait. Hesitant to spend too much more as I've gone harder at Denzel when the value was there than I planned, I thought DM was close to a shoe in. Before considering top 10/11-20 possible winnings (which isn't much), I'm at a point of a slightly bigger win than Confidence for Denzel (6-7), a couple of grand for Tones and $700 down for billie, a few $k down if there is a fourth smokey which I don't give much chance. All 3 are still a big chance, so will put a bit more on billie at $5.5 to get to breakeven but surely odds won't keep drifting. If Tones gets to $3.5-$4 may consider, which is possible in a couple of weeks if she keeps struggling on tunas. More than ever they seem to be following the Tunas closely, but obviously there is so much invested in Tones the odds are taking a while to shift.
Be careful with the bet365 cashout thing, I tried that the other day and even when the odds shifted, the cash out didn't change. I contacted them and they said they were only offering a 100% cash out until closer to the day. So still get your money back, but they aren't offering the cash outs anymore.
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- #186
HNY gents. year of the bull.
BOP has moved into $1.90 favourite at Neds. It is still $2.75 at B365. Because its likely to soon be favourite at all bookies, I have gone large on BOP outright $2.75 at B365 for a cashout play. 10-20% ROI is the goal. easier than investing in shares.
Still worried about Bad Guy winning and wondering if it will go above $5 again or if it will firm also.
BOP has moved into $1.90 favourite at Neds. It is still $2.75 at B365. Because its likely to soon be favourite at all bookies, I have gone large on BOP outright $2.75 at B365 for a cashout play. 10-20% ROI is the goal. easier than investing in shares.
Still worried about Bad Guy winning and wondering if it will go above $5 again or if it will firm also.
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I would have had Thelma and Mallrat very firm for top 10.
ye olde mole
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FYI have taken $6.50 for Bad Guy (No. 1) with Beteasy.
Happy with that price, and I don't have unreasonable bet limits with them like I have with Sportsbet.
Happy with that price, and I don't have unreasonable bet limits with them like I have with Sportsbet.
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- #191
watching bad guy price with interest... seemed to keep lengthening when I thought it'd stay around $5.
$6.50 seems very good
I just cashed out 100% of my b365 bets at $5 odds and took the $6.50 odds with the same stake[/QUOTE]
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- Jan 30, 2013
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Yes, it deserves to be fave and obvious #1 seed still. Its a shit song but will be voted for by general pop public and Warm Tunas will heavily underrate it.
Anything with Slipknot in the top 20 is not a good guide to take as gospel. Sicko Mode went 11 to 3 last year. Dance Monkey ticks a hell of a lot more boxes for underrated on WT.
So this is kinda hilarious for you punters. Anyway I was actually just listening to triplej and they said this last week the song with the most votes just got overtaken by the 2nd spot lmao. The announcer said 1st is about 100 or so votes clear atm after moving into first.
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- #196
dont believe u
Well you don't believe the announcer cause he said it as clear as day. It was around 6:20- 6:30pm if anyone can back listen to then.
Assuming perth triple j is delayed you should be able to hear it on the perth steam or radio.
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- #198
ok believe u. they havent usually done this in the past - its usually an official spoiler around Jan 18th. kinda pisses me off it shows how leaky the info is within triple j.
not great news for Bulls winning, maybe it just got overtaken.
Also shows its not a landslide victory to Tones and I which is a positive.
my guess is bad guy just overtook bulls.
anyway who knows.
Gibbsy
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The info isn’t leaky at all. There would be maybe three people in the station that know the result currently – the data monkeys working the computers. It’s interesting that it’s so close, hence they tell the presenter that #2 and #1 are neck and neck. The presenter would not know what the songs are.
warm tunas is simply a guide. Let’s not forget that their current sample size is 0.8%. Would you believe any data based on that? I wouldn’t be certain on anything less than 25%.
because SB haven’t been offering as many dumb overs this year I haven’t outlaid near as much.
but I will quite happily tell you that a cover of a song played by a band who last released new music 20 years ago, performed by an artist who has never before even featured in the countdown, will not finish #1.
I’m surprised that you aren’t listening to the Tally Room anyway – it’s triple j’s seasonal Sunday night show where you can find out this sort of data. I actually got on air last week when they gave me a call after I texted in, was cool.
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- #200
The 2-3% sample size WT gets is pretty good. you can be very confident in sample sizes much less than 25%. its been too long since I did stats to still know how to determine confidence levels from sample size & population.
Its the bias of the sample (instagram) compared to population that is the real worry IMO.
Also you can give many reasons why any given song can or cannot win. Similar happened with ocean alley last year. people gave a whole host of reasons why it wouldnt win. I wouldnt rule out BOP. Its currently the favourite.
we have new info that 1st and 2nd are very close and 2nd overtook 1st last week. Use this info to bet appropriately... hedging now important to de-risk IMO.
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