Prediction Upside: North v Pies

[Warrboy]

So am in daily debate at work with a Pies fan who claims Pies will finish higher than North next season. Says Pies have far greater upside than North which will result in North being passed by other teams and missing the 8. We had a similar discussion this time last year which resulted in a bet which resulted in him paying me $100 at the end of the season thanks to our respective ladder positions. He has been silly enough to agree to the same wager for 2016.

He points to the obvious additions in Treloar, Aish and Howe along with the other youngster who gathered game time last year.

I point to the fact he is dealing in the hypothetical and to get a decent trendline you need to look to the recent past (i.e. 2 prelims). As for our potential upside (2014 draftees, hopefully Wells back, NDS uninjured, Brown year 3, Atley looking ready, time in youngsters, Andersen, depth of squad etc) I actually think our upside is going to come from the experience of the past 2 seasons - winning big finals, self-belief, solving those nagging problems we've had for a while (Jacobs as tagger, tougher stance on selection) and, in my opinion, a great draw to allow us to be a great team. I think our season's fortunes (top 4) rest on a good start to the season but either way we'll finish higher than Pies.

 

[toepoker]

One word. Nafan.
I think you have a moral obligation to take your mate's money from him, as you'd clearly spend it more judiciously than him.

 

[TwentyNine]

Instead of $100 you should make him buy a North membership when he loses again.

 

[scottywiper]

AT this point the Pies are nothing more than a mirage. All throttle and no flaps. Done nothing under Buckley.
Lots of pressure on them next year.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

They gave their best player to Brisbane. Enough said.

 

[JD-Roo]

AT this point the Pies are nothing more than a mirage. All throttle and no flaps.

 

[tiltraise]

Im simply amazed that nobody rates us.

I think we have as much chance as any team this year but taking a peek at betfair as we speak I notice we are 10th pick in the premiership betting directly behind the Pies at 9th

 

[Arden]

We had a similar discussion this time last year which resulted in a bet which resulted in him paying me $100 at the end of the season

You shouldn't accept his money. It is a crime to be in receipt of stolen goods.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Im simply amazed that nobody rates us.

I think we have as much chance as any team this year but taking a peek at betfair as we speak I notice we are 10th pick in the premiership betting directly behind the Pies at 9th

It's after the trade period. 'Mystery' solved.

 

[Rockstar6]

What a false sense of security you Pie supporting mate has. I can't wait to see them fail for a 3rd straight year! (Should be 4th because they choked big time in the EF vs Port)

 

[danj]

You shouldn't accept his money. It is a crime to be in receipt of stolen goods.

Collingwood fan, no surprise if he's in receipt of a stolen membership

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

So am in daily debate at work with a Pies fan.

Why would you need to be at Centrelink every day?

 

[Donkey Chop]

I'll have a hunge on that too if possible

 

[Gasometer]

They were terrifyingly fast planes.

 

[Gasometer]

We might see you both on 'Worlds weirdest animal couples' on Ch 7 at 8.40 tonight.

 

[RobZombie]

It's really two questions: how do North get better in 2016, and why (or why not) do Collingwood take a big rather than incremental step forward?

There's not much organic improvement in our core, I wouldn't think. 3 likely factors for improvement: Wells gets on the park; Garner with a preseason does more than this year's tantalising cameo performances; and Anderson is a more dynamic contributor than Bastinac. Then there's the usual fringe guys with some chance of stepping up dramatically. McKenzie and Wood could offer something that we don't already have much of in the seniors, and most of the others are every chance of being decent AFL players given a chance. The important thing is nobody regressing badly or too many oldies falling off a cliff, but even then there are replacements eager to prove themselves and ready to go.

For Collingwood, they've beefed up their midfield again, effectively covering the loss of Beams with Treloar. So recovering the midfield stocks to the point that got them to 11th in 2014. Aish is 50/50 to be a significant contributor and they haven't addressed their lack of quality talls. Moore will be another year on but Cloke looks to be tailing off and the KPDs are nothing special. De Goey and Scharenberg would expect to come on but I can't see any other likely breakout players for them. Maybe Grundy, but he still needs help to ruck a whole game.

 

[Saintly31]

I think Pies will improve and have a pretty good young list.

Whether they improve enough to pass us yet though, I doubt it.

Still, considering our underachieving H&A last couple of years wouldn't be the biggest surprise if pass us there if not after finals.

 

[La Flama Blanca]

Im simply amazed that nobody rates us.

I think we have as much chance as any team this year but taking a peek at betfair as we speak I notice we are 10th pick in the premiership betting directly behind the Pies at 9th

We could win the premiership and nobody would rate us. Most people don't watch that many games and rely on the media to fill in the blanks. Because we are one of the least supported teams the media doesn't bother pumping us up, resulting in the situation where nobody really knows or cares where we're at.

Doesn't matter to me. I'd rather win the games when they are actually played than have people think we will win them months out. Besides, there is clearly money to be made out of opposition fans

 

[buttsauce]

You're money is in trouble. We have a horror draw the pies were unreal until they ran out or gas last year. They will improve heaps this year.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Supporters always overrate young players. We were guilty of this ourselves. Fact is young groups take time to settle and never track where they are projected.

We have a solid, settled and mature group who will maintain their level at the least. The main concern is players falling off a cliff physically but they are exceptionally well managed so i dony see that as major problem.

 

[TwentyNine]

We could win the premiership and nobody would rate us. Most people don't watch that many games and rely on the media to fill in the blanks. Because we are one of the least supported teams the media doesn't bother pumping us up, resulting in the situation where nobody really knows or cares where we're at.

This par should be on page one of the NMFC supporter's handbook.

 

[goalieboy82]

 

[Hearts to hearts]

It's really two questions: how do North get better in 2016, and why (or why not) do Collingwood take a big rather than incremental step forward?

There's not much organic improvement in our core, I wouldn't think. 3 likely factors for improvement: Wells gets on the park; Garner with a preseason does more than this year's tantalising cameo performances; and Anderson is a more dynamic contributor than Bastinac. Then there's the usual fringe guys with some chance of stepping up dramatically. McKenzie and Wood could offer something that we don't already have much of in the seniors, and most of the others are every chance of being decent AFL players given a chance. The important thing is nobody regressing badly or too many oldies falling off a cliff, but even then there are replacements eager to prove themselves and ready to go.

For Collingwood, they've beefed up their midfield again, effectively covering the loss of Beams with Treloar. So recovering the midfield stocks to the point that got them to 11th in 2014. Aish is 50/50 to be a significant contributor and they haven't addressed their lack of quality talls. Moore will be another year on but Cloke looks to be tailing off and the KPDs are nothing special. De Goey and Scharenberg would expect to come on but I can't see any other likely breakout players for them. Maybe Grundy, but he still needs help to ruck a whole game.

Clearly Collingwood has more potential upside - underperformance will do that, as they are coming off a much lower base and have more room to improve. Having said that, North's finals shouldn't offset the fact the team barely hit first gear through the home and away - the couple of times they did play well should remind us how much more scope for improvement we have in our list, despite finishing top four with a bullet.

The obvious point to make about Collingwood's upside is that it is probably still a couple of years away from hitting its prime, so a big jump next year seems optimistic (and even longer term, they will need the kids to peak and have Cloke still firing).

 

[Only Forwards]

I have a question, In 2016 will they still be reliant upon Jesse White to hold down the second KPF position?

 

[RobZombie]

I have a question, In 2016 will they still be reliant upon Jesse White to hold down the second KPF position?

LOLs aside, it will be interesting to see whether they do something with Mason Cox in that regard. Their KPP stocks are putrid.