Optimax
Brownlow Medallist
As you can see from Ed's stats, the key clearly is to win your finals
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
We need to finish Top 2 and win our finals
- Thread starter themidlandmaster
- Start date
- Tagged users None
2002-03 GFs?
Cousin of Daicos
Premiership Player and All-Australian
- Sep 17, 2007
- 28,896
- 33,691
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Man. U, Chicago Bulls, Ολυμπιακός
The clear excpetion to the rule.
- Dec 12, 2010
- 4,924
- 5,152
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
History isn't necessarily the best indication of our current chances though... I don't want to be playing West Coast in Perth week 1, then if we lose, facing an Adelaide team in the prelim... (Would be stuffed by the GF)...
Let's just finish top 2 and take it out of the equation. We play WC twice this year - if we can beat them in both, then we will probably finish above them on the ladder.
If history is anything to go by, we have a 34.9% chance of winning the GF should we make it.
To me, the real dangers are Hawthorn and WC in Perth. I think Adelaide my run out of steam, certainly they will struggle to replclate and maintain their intensity from the first half of the year. Essendon fairly similar, imo, they play a physically tolling brand of footy where they run and tackle extremely hard.
Hawthorn are travelling nicely but a little inconsistent. On their day they can beat anyone, but off their day they can lose to anyone (read Richmond). They are 8-4 without really playing that well, and that includes nailbiting losses to Geelong and WC. I don't understand why so many in the media are writing off their top 4 chances.
We have a fairly tough draw but if we can account for WC and Freo in Melbourne then it really sets us up. Carlscum and Geelong are our two games after that and fair to say they aren't in the greatest of form. Factor in games still to come against GWS and NM, as well as very winnable games against Sydney and St Kilda, and we are a real shot of finishing top two. In such an even season our last two games, WC in Perth and Essendon, may determine a lot when it comes to final ladder positions.
To me, the real dangers are Hawthorn and WC in Perth. I think Adelaide my run out of steam, certainly they will struggle to replclate and maintain their intensity from the first half of the year. Essendon fairly similar, imo, they play a physically tolling brand of footy where they run and tackle extremely hard.
Hawthorn are travelling nicely but a little inconsistent. On their day they can beat anyone, but off their day they can lose to anyone (read Richmond). They are 8-4 without really playing that well, and that includes nailbiting losses to Geelong and WC. I don't understand why so many in the media are writing off their top 4 chances.
We have a fairly tough draw but if we can account for WC and Freo in Melbourne then it really sets us up. Carlscum and Geelong are our two games after that and fair to say they aren't in the greatest of form. Factor in games still to come against GWS and NM, as well as very winnable games against Sydney and St Kilda, and we are a real shot of finishing top two. In such an even season our last two games, WC in Perth and Essendon, may determine a lot when it comes to final ladder positions.
I'm very worried about these two rounds. Playing in Perth second-last round I don't like. I'm thinking the best situation to be in would be if we were guaranteed to finish at least 2nd even if we lost those two games and then just rest everyone against West Coast. But we have to get there first lol.
Seeing as what happened in rd 24 last year we won't make the same mistake again.
- Dec 12, 2010
- 4,924
- 5,152
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
I think the main problem here was that these teams didn't follow the strategy outlined by the OP, which is to win all finals matches. If we had have followed his advice and actually won the 02 / 03 grand finals, then they would have been better years.
Silly move, Malthouse.
Kirby
Executive GM of the Apple Isle
Veteran
Collingwood - Beau McCreery Player Sponsor 2023
10k Posts
Collingwood - Caleb Poulter Player Sponsor 2022
Collingwood - Josh Daicos Player Sponsor 2021
Collingwood - Tyler Brown Player Sponsor 2020
Collingwood Magpies - Brayden Sier 2019 Player Sponsor
Collingwood - Jaidyn Stephenson Player Sponsor 2018
Alternatively, we could just finish 8th and win all finals?
Please...
They have had one worthy win all season, against Adelaide.
Rd1 we were barely going, guys like Yagmoor, Seedsman, Sinclair, Rounds all offered very little and yet we still basically pushed them all the way.
If you challenge them they fall away, a mentally weak team who look good when beating up on lessor opponents...easy wins against teams like North, Freo, Port etc. dont hide the fact that they gave up against Geelong, Sydney and Richmond....and were lucky WC couldn't kick straight in the first half.
Hawthorn still have to play
Rd 17 - Collingwood @ the G
Rd 18 - Essendon @ Etihad
Rd 19 - Geelong @ the G
Rd 22 - Sydney @ the SCG
Rd 23 - WC @ the G
Based on exposed form they will be lucky to win 1 or 2 of them...the Hawks would need to win 4 of them to get top 4 I reckon.
Adelaide have a ridiculously easy run, they will finish top 4
Coll should finish top 4
WC should finish top 4
One spot left....Geelong, Syd or Haw could make it......
No way will Geelong make it. How many good performances have they put up?
Bout the same as Hawthorn...one or two.
If Geelong play Sydney this Friday, they then have a couple of easy games (Port and GC) before meeting us in Rd 16. If they can beat Sydney, they will most likely face us with a 10-4 record.
No matter who finished 4th, we shouldn't fear anybody if we have a fit team on the park.
Hawthorn played well against NM, Port, Adelaide, Fremantle...comparing Geelong's record and their only sizeable wins have been against GWS (level at HT) and Melbourne (who are a rabble). After watching them play against us I realised that they just aren't as hungry anymore, they look as slow as anything. Carlscum cut them open a couple of weeks ago, hell even Freo and North have sliced them up through the middle. Their spread is non-existent.
All I'm saying is that Hawthon is in a better position imo.
76woodenspooners
Brownlow Medallist
It'd be wonderful afterwards.
But could your nerves really handle going through that process?
I think some of us are getting a bit ahead of ourselves. It seems to me that the second half of the year is going to be harder than the first half, and frankly, it's bloody miraculous that we are where we are given our injuries. If we finish in the top four I'll be well pleased, because we really oughtn't even to make the eight (with those injuries, a new coach, etc). I guess what it really shows is just how bloody good the team really is (and maybe a few of us have forgotten that, perhaps me included). I remember back in 2010 the prediction was that this team wasn't due to peak until 2012-2013 or thereabouts. I reckon that's right. Did any of us really, in our hearts of hearts, truly expect Daisy to become the dominant player that he is, wresting M-O-T-M from Ablett despite Ablett's 53. This is almost uncanny guys!!
Kirby
Executive GM of the Apple Isle
Veteran
Collingwood - Beau McCreery Player Sponsor 2023
10k Posts
Collingwood - Caleb Poulter Player Sponsor 2022
Collingwood - Josh Daicos Player Sponsor 2021
Collingwood - Tyler Brown Player Sponsor 2020
Collingwood Magpies - Brayden Sier 2019 Player Sponsor
Collingwood - Jaidyn Stephenson Player Sponsor 2018
Oh no, I'm way too old for that!
Umpiring during the finals is always better than during the season too. It's not something to worry about. Who is to say West Coast will finish top 2 anyway? Or the Pies top 4? There's way too much of the season to go and considering the top 6 teams are seperated by 4 points I think Collingwood should just focus on winning games.
- Jun 26, 2007
- 42,914
- 23,961
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Magpies
This is why wraiths exist....they carry off the offenders at night....no cards...just no more.
Fitting though....
Anyway look for me on the Blues board after the reaming....Judd2Grimace
PIES 4 LIFE
Team Captain
I know we shouldn't fear anybody, but for some reason, Geelong and Hawthorn always seem to have our measure when it counts. That doesn't mean we can't win, but those two teams are always competitive against us.
Always??? Hardly
They are competitive with us, Geelong especially. Hawks go OK while Buddy is out and about but stop him and they are screwed. We've thumped Geelong before and can again, it comes down to injuries and suspensions really.
Cousin of Daicos
Premiership Player and All-Australian
- Sep 17, 2007
- 28,896
- 33,691
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Man. U, Chicago Bulls, Ολυμπιακός
Games between us and Geelong/Hawthorn are more often than not very circumstancial games.
Hawthorn. This one is simple. If Buddy doesn't play, or doesn't play well (ie. Tarrant plays) we win. Plain and simple. Buddy gets off the chain? We lose. Go back to 2007 and you;ll see that is 100% backed up statistically.
Geelong. They're a bit trickier. Seems to me, that of late, these games tend to come down to either injuries, or whomever 'comes to play' on any given day. You can never really be sure of what's gong to happen in any given game against the Cats.
Hawthorn. This one is simple. If Buddy doesn't play, or doesn't play well (ie. Tarrant plays) we win. Plain and simple. Buddy gets off the chain? We lose. Go back to 2007 and you;ll see that is 100% backed up statistically.
Geelong. They're a bit trickier. Seems to me, that of late, these games tend to come down to either injuries, or whomever 'comes to play' on any given day. You can never really be sure of what's gong to happen in any given game against the Cats.
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
I reckon if your miss top 2, but still win your finals - you'll still do OK
Im solidly in the camp of finishing top 2, thus taking all the variables of where and when you play. Our interstate record is amazing, but i would much prefer a home final week 1.
Critically too, gives Jolly a rest which will be crucial in the Prelim. He will be a key for us in any final.
Looking at what will be required to finish top 2, 18 and 4 is no certainty for top 2. I think at 18 wins, percentage will come in and we may struggle to overcome WCE and Adelaide. They have a number of potential percentage boosters still to be played.
Given we were 1 and 2 after Round 3, to finish at 18 and 4 given our draw will be a phenomenal effort.
Critically too, gives Jolly a rest which will be crucial in the Prelim. He will be a key for us in any final.
Looking at what will be required to finish top 2, 18 and 4 is no certainty for top 2. I think at 18 wins, percentage will come in and we may struggle to overcome WCE and Adelaide. They have a number of potential percentage boosters still to be played.
Given we were 1 and 2 after Round 3, to finish at 18 and 4 given our draw will be a phenomenal effort.
