We should've won the Grand Final according to Champion Data

[yakka man]

http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/af...2013-grand-final/story-fniv64vs-1226828172594

ROSS Lyon often says he doesn’t have a crystal ball.

During last year’s finals series he did, and he didn’t like what he saw.

Amid the euphoria of Fremantle’s high-adrenalin preliminary final victory over Sydney, Lyon had a word of warning after the Dockers had sprayed 2.9 in a wasteful first quarter.

“History tells you if you don’t take your opportunities, you are going to be vulnerable,’’ he said.

One week later, Lyon was being consoled by a friend in the MCG dressingrooms after the club’s gut-wrenching 15-point Grand Final loss to Hawthorn.

She told him: “There was nothing you could do. The boys just couldn’t kick.’’

According to official statistician Champion Data, the tears in the Fremantle rooms following the game should have been tears of joy.

“Based on the AFL average across the shots that they had, Freo should have won,’’ Champion Data analyst Glenn Luff said.

“It felt like Hawthorn was in control for most of the game, but you look at the raw numbers and it was all pretty close.

“Hawthorn nailed them and Freo didn’t.’’

The Dockers had 29 shots at goal to the Hawks’ 24, yet came up short.

Champion Data’s detailed goalkicking analysis considers all shots at goal, including those that fall short or sail out on the full.

Using data from the past two seasons, every shot is given at an expected accuracy out of the full six points, based on the type of shot, the distance, angle and the amount of pressure the player was under.

Fremantle’s worst offenders were Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe.

Ballantyne had a dirty day and missed all four of his shots on goal, while Fyfe’s three costly misses can more easily be forgiven given he worked tirelessly and was one of his side’s best.

According to the numbers, Freo’s worst miss of the day came from skipper Matthew Pavlich, whose set shot from 33m in the second quarter missed to the left.

Trailing by 24 points approaching half-time and having kicked just one goal for the match, it was a devastating blow for Fremantle given the circumstances.

So basically as we already know we should've won if we kicked straight. Still, it's reassuring to know that with another pre-season to improve we should be right up there again.

 

[Simmofreo]

I just read that. I think it's a stupid article really. Why would you write such a long article to tell us that if we kicked straight we would have won !! Nice of them to bring it up. Still stings !!!!

 

[JunglistPosse]

We had the last 8 shots on goal..FFS!! Isn't that reminiscent of the Essendon game?

This is rubbing salt into the open wounds...bring on 2014!

 

[Lach72]

I just taped the GF. I've watched the first ten minutes.
Despite shitting ourselves, Fyfe missed 2 gimmes out in the full, Ballantyne dropped a chest mark 35 out directly in front, Suban missed one on the run at the 50 that he'd nail more often than not. Hawks had one genuine chance for a goal and a rushed behind from Mundy.

Despite what they say about the Lyon Gameplan, we created more than enough chances to win the game.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[BananaOnTheRun]

Don't think the players and coaches don't know this either. The big difference between this year and last is that rather than believing we're good enough, now we know we are.

 

[scon]

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/21482734/dockers-faith-in-defence-plan/

 

[clogged]

We had the last 8 shots on goal..FFS!! Isn't that reminiscent of the Essendon game?

Funny you should say. There were many who thought the end of that game was full of dangerous signs of mental weakness that needed to be fixed. A certain "best kick in the side" handballing to a guy with his back to goals in the last minute was one such example.

 

[leeloo]

I just read that. I think it's a stupid article really. Why would you write such a long article to tell us that if we kicked straight we would have won !! Nice of them to bring it up. Still stings !!!!

On Fox, they are advertising the Grand Final Recall (I think that is what it is called), where some Hawthorn players and the coach go over the game in detail. They do it every year but it has tarnished my NAB challenge watching

But some on here may find it interesting to watch and see the Hawks thoughts. I won't be watching.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Funny you should say. There were many who thought the end of that game was full of dangerous signs of mental weakness that needed to be fixed. A certain "best kick in the side" handballing to a guy with his back to goals in the last minute was one such example.

Which passage was it ?...

 

[ep2018]

Which passage was it ?...

I think when Hill ran inside fwd 50 and hand balled to Mayne instead of having the shot on goal.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I think when Hill ran inside fwd 50 and hand balled to Mayne instead of having the shot on goal.

What ?... the Essendon game ? Did it happen in the granny as well ?

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I think when Hill ran inside fwd 50 and hand balled to Mayne instead of having the shot on goal.

What ?... the Essendon game ? Did it happen in the granny as well ?

 

[ep2018]

What ?... the Essendon game ? Did it happen in the granny as well ?

The Essendon game, with a minute left if I remember correctly.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

The Essendon game, with a minute left if I remember correctly.

I thought we were talking about the GF.
For the record , the Hill hand off to Chopper was the right thing to do. Chop should have used his right foot.
Anyway that was Margetts' big day, the rsole.

 

[Freoval]

Yakka man, I agree that the article was not written well and the message was unclear. It even stopped mid-sentence - I guess the sub - editor was to blame for that. However, as posted recently by me, the original article in the "AFL Prospectus" was not at all critical of our accuracy, in fact, based on degree of difficulty, we kicked straighter than the Hawks! I agree it doesn't make us feel any better, but the original article (not the "Sunday Times") was based on statistics and is well worth the read.

 

[Silent Alarm]

I think when Hill ran inside fwd 50 and hand balled to Mayne instead of having the shot on goal.

Indicative of his lack of confidence. That's the only difference between him being an okay player and the best winger in the competition – which he should be

 

[ep2018]

Indicative of his lack of confidence. That's the only difference between him being an okay player and the best winger in the competition – which he should be

He had the confidence to kick that last goal in the Geelong final last year -- he could have passed off to Walters who was by himself at the time fwd 50.

He probably did the right thing in the Essendon game, Mayne was seemingly in the clear... but hindsight tells us that he should have had the shot.

 

[Silent Alarm]

He had the confidence to kick that last goal in the Geelong final last year -- he could have passed off to Walters who was by himself at the time fwd 50.

He probably did the right thing in the Essendon game, Mayne was seemingly in the clear... but hindsight tells us that he should have had the shot.

Massive difference between a kick to literally win the game and a kick to seal it.

 

[Clems Knee]

Massive difference between a kick to literally win the game and a kick to seal it.

One was a home and away game in front of a home crowd. The other a final at an away venue. Wonder which game had the highest pressure?

 

[clogged]

Hill is just one of many who have stage fright in front of goal, although in his case it makes no sense as he's one of the better kicks out there.

Mundy is another who kicks too few goals.

 

[Rob]

Indicative of his lack of confidence. That's the only difference between him being an okay player and the best winger in the competition – which he should be

Yeah, but that doesn't mean you just fire away whenever you're in range. Hill was on his wrong side, and Mayne was on his own at the top of the square. The error was Mayne thinking he was under more pressure than he was.

 

[Silent Alarm]

Hill is just one of many who have stage fright in front of goal, although in his case it makes no sense as he's one of the better kicks out there.

Mundy is another who kicks too few goals.

Yo. Mayne-aside, who's only glaring miss was one that mattered, Freo really have the yips in front of goal. Even Pav skews a few he should really nail.

 

[yoong]

Champion data? Champion data?!! The same champion data that had only one of our players (which ironically is Stephen hill,you haters ) in the top 100? Don't see a need to start believing them now...

 

[slicedndiced]

Champion data? Champion data?!! The same champion data that had only one of our players (which ironically is Stephen hill,you haters ) in the top 100? Don't see a need to start believing them now...

The most over-rated, over-quoted and totally useless organisation connected with AFL football today.

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

The most over-rated, over-quoted and totally useless organisation connected with AFL football today.

2nd, see WCE