We will be in the 8 after round 9 if???

[roo_boy_29]

We will be in the 8 after round 9 if all these likely scenarios happen??

Collingwood beat Geelong tonight at MCG
We beat Port Adelaide this week at AAMI
Hawks beat Fremantle this week in Tassie
West Coast beat St Kilda this week at Subi
We beat Brisbane next week at Etihad
West Coast beat Fremantle next week at Subi
We gain approx 60 points on our for and against compared to st kilda over next 2 games for example we win by 30 and 30 and they lose by 10 and win by 10 or if they lose both games it wont matter.

There are a lot of other scenarios, but I thought this was the most likely.

 

[Shinboner Schem]

st kilda paying $2.10 to miss the 8

 

[Event Horizon]

I am not sure this is a time for looking at permutations and combinations. We have two absolutely must win games coming up against two teams who have won 3 games between them out of 14. If we can't get the job done, the blowtorch will be right on us and the coach.

The finals should not even be discussed at the moment. But FWIWl, for us to make it given our 3:4 record we will need to beat some sides above us to make it. It won't be enough to simply beat teams below us at this stage IMO. And some of the teams below us are in much better form than us at the moment.

 

[roo_boy_29]

If anything this probably shows me how tough it is going to be to make it with already needing 6 from 6 results to go our way and were only in round 8.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Only 4 weeks ago we were talking top 4 if we knocked off sydney/wc. Funny how things change....

 

[Event Horizon]

If anything this probably shows me how tough it is going to be to make it with already needing 6 from 6 results to go our way and were only in round 8.

That has absolutely nothing to do with it. 6 out of 6 results to go our way in round 8, is totally irrelevant. What we need, roughly speaking, is to be at least 4 wins in front of our losses come the end of the year (13:9). Possibly 14:8 even.

That means that at some stage we'll need to win 3, 4 or 5 on the trot. Simple as that.

 

[Only Forwards]

If anything this probably shows me how tough it is going to be to make it with already needing 6 from 6 results to go our way and were only in round 8.

From memory you don't make finals by being in the 8 in round 10.

 

[Event Horizon]

From memory you don't make finals by being in the 8 in round 10.

You most certainly don't , but in saying that, every journo who can be bothered is repeating the same notion, that after round 7 in most seasons, only 1 side out of the finals manages to break in. At most two, and that only happened on two occasions I think, since the introduction of final 8. And at the moment we have Geelong and Hawthorn out of the 8.

This week on SEN Rohan Connoly was having an argument with Ox and some others as to whether both Geelong and Hawthorn can get in this season, and if so, who will drop out. Nobody even mentioned us in that discussion, and personally, I don't blame them.

 

[danj]

That has absolutely nothing to do with it. 6 out of 6 results to go our way in round 8, is totally irrelevant. What we need, roughly speaking, is to be at least 4 wins in front of our losses come the end of the year (13:9). Possibly 14:8 even.

That means that at some stage we'll need to win 3, 4 or 5 on the trot. Simple as that.

Definitely 14 games, can anyone see that happening? I am an eternal optomist when it comes to NMFC but even I am facing up to reality, if we do win 14 it will be against the odds on current form

 

[ThePezDispenser]

Cool... Give me a run down for the next 17 rounds..

 

[tazaa]

These threads are fun when your winning.
At the moment we have bigger problems with form, gameplan and mentality. If we rock up to finals in this state it will be roadkill.

And to think we were talking about top of the table clashes against West Coast and the like a month ago

 

[roo_boy_29]

That has absolutely nothing to do with it. 6 out of 6 results to go our way in round 8, is totally irrelevant. What we need, roughly speaking, is to be at least 4 wins in front of our losses come the end of the year (13:9). Possibly 14:8 even.

That means that at some stage we'll need to win 3, 4 or 5 on the trot. Simple as that.

If you read my original post properly all those results are spread out over next 2 weeks not in round 8. Also I think it is important to get in the 8 sooner rather than later as history shows it's hard to get in after round 8,9. Im barracking for all these results to happen over next 2 weeks and when we are in the 8 after round 9 im sure most of us will be having a cocktail party in our jocks.

 

[danj]

Cool... Give me a run down for the next 17 rounds..

Based on our current form worst case is the following:

PORT ADELAIDE 50/50
BRISBANE LIONS 50/50
HAWTHORN loss
BYE we can't lose!
GOLD COAST 50/50
ADELAIDE loss
ST KILDA loss
WEST COAST EAGLES loss
CARLTON loss
RICHMOND 50/50
MELBOURNE win
WESTERN BULLDOGS 50/50
ESSENDON loss
COLLINGWOOD loss
FREMANTLE loss
GREATER WESTERN win

So if we win the 50/50's we end up with 10 wins. A better case scenario would be etxra wins against those teams "we should beat" say an extra 3-4 but this means beating Don's, Aints, Crows and Carlton/Eagles.

The truly optomistic best outcome would include beating Freo and Hawks.

​

 

[TheKanga]

It's going to be very tight around 8th spot come the end of the season.
As others have said we need to upset a couple of top teams to make i think.
Maybe Carlton on Friday Night Footy and Essendon in round 20.
I would expect us to beat Freo at Etihad. We did beat them by nearly 100 points last year.

I really want to see us play finals, it would be good experience for our players.
We MUST beat Port and Brisbane, we can't let our season slip away by these nothing sides.

 

[Radical Roo]

Right gentlemen, the diff btw success and failure is only around 5% more effort. We are stumlbing, but we need to continue run forward while keeping our feet. Keep the momentum rolling foward. We have been disappointing but we haven't dropped our bundled this season, we must take heart. Hold the ground, firm and fight back inch by inch stalingrad style.

 

[Son of Sagnak]

Winning the next 2 will count for very little IMO if we then can't follow it up with a win against Hawthorn. Whilst our win against Geelong was good we got them at a vulnerable moment. Also need to win well against Port. Anything less than 4 goals would be disappointing.

 

[soyouthink10]

Way too early in the season for scenarios like the OP.

All I want is us to play good footy! The rest takes care of itself if you just win!

 

[roo_boy_29]

We will be in the 8 after round 9 if all these likely scenarios happen??

Collingwood beat Geelong tonight at MCG
We beat Port Adelaide this week at AAMI
Hawks beat Fremantle this week in Tassie
West Coast beat St Kilda this week at Subi
We beat Brisbane next week at Etihad
West Coast beat Fremantle next week at Subi
We gain approx 60 points on our for and against compared to st kilda over next 2 games for example we win by 30 and 30 and they lose by 10 and win by 10 or if they lose both games it wont matter.

There are a lot of other scenarios, but I thought this was the most likely.

1 from 1

 

[Kimbo]

1 from 1

Yep, we're doing well so far.

 

[The Chiefton]

Yep, we're doing well so far.

Watch, it'll be 1/7 now