Prediction Wins this season? After first 3 rounds?

[Kangapirate]

I have us at 2 wins, both will be at the back end when whoever we beat has put half their side in for surgery when they aren’t playing for anything.

The sticking point for me is that we won’t be able to contain any team down to a score that gives us a legit chance of winning.

 

[Groucho]

4.

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Yes I’m going for 4. I simply have to believe we’ll improve even if it’s only by one.

 

[Only Forwards]

Between 4-6 which has not changed because of the first 3 rounds.

 

[the big lebowski]

The pressure leading into Hawks game will be enormous.

Agreed. And the fact that the hawks know how to win makes me pessimistic

 

[hilly]

We should definitely be a great chance against....Bombers....and Suns.

Also, just quietly, we might be a sneaky chance to knock off Brisbane in Norwood this week as well.

LOL



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[tazaa]

The sad thing is our draw opens up and gets really easier in the back half of the year.
Were not working hard enough.

Yesterday we had less of the footy and also less tackles. We just weren't up for it.

 

[Gasometer]

I must be looking at another Draw

 

[CURVE]

I'm thinking 4 to 6 wins is probably most likely, but I also thinking if we continue to show improvement over the first half of the season, we could potentially cause an upset or two in the second half.

 

[Marstermind]

My long term tipping theory is "If the game was next week, who would I tip?" On that basis, if the following games were next weekend, I'd tip North.

Round 6 v Hawthorn at Marvel
Round 13 v West Coast at Optus
Round 21 v Richmond at Marvel
Round 22 v West Coast at Blundstone
Round 24 v Hawthorn at UTas

So I'm going with 5 wins, but being 2-17 at the end of Round 20. But the only game I'm 100% confident winning is in Round 22.

 

[Mcarcherey]

Who seriously had a win pencilled in vs gws, freo and Carlton at the start of the season....

Stop believing hyperbole, whether it's positive or negative.



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[shimaburnsgrieg]

Games we have a legitimate shot at winning:

• R5: Hawks @ Marvel
• R6: Crows @ Blundstone
• R10: * @ Marvel
• R14: Eagles @ Optus
• R17: Suns @ Marvel
• R21: Tigers @ Marvel
• R22: Eagles @ Marvel
• R24: Hawks @ Launceston

We might somehow jag another win from the remaining games.

Absolute worst case is 0. Probable worst case is 3. Absolute best case is 9. Probable best case is 6.

Also have to factor in playing 3 sides in the last 4 rounds that could possibly be tanking at that point.

Most likely between 4 - 6 games. 5 wins is what I am going with.

The only game we will start favourites in any of those 'legitimate' games is West Coast at Marvel.

On that basis we will win 1 game. We would hope to beat Eagles over there but that is not locked in.

However by Rounds 22-24 all sorts of 'tanking'/'positioning' will be going on so its hard to read how those games play out. We could well pick up another 1-2 wins like the Gold Coast win in the last round last year if Eagles and Hawks are in full tank mode.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

Who seriously had a win pencilled in vs gws, freo and Carlton at the start of the season....

Stop believing hyperbole, whether it's positive or negative.



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Freo finished 14th last year, lost players over the Summer, were playing interstate and had a long injury list - of course that was a winnable game if anyone thought there was going to be improvement in us this year.

 

[Only Forwards]

My long term tipping theory is "If the game was next week, who would I tip?" On that basis, if the following games were next weekend, I'd tip North.

Round 6 v Hawthorn at Marvel
Round 13 v West Coast at Optus
Round 21 v Richmond at Marvel
Round 22 v West Coast at Blundstone
Round 24 v Hawthorn at UTas

So I'm going with 5 wins, but being 2-17 at the end of Round 20. But the only game I'm 100% confident winning is in Round 22.

To these rules I’d tip us
Round 7 v Adelaide in Hobart

Which if we won would give us two on the trot before playing St Kilda at Docklands. While we wouldn’t be favourites I doubt we’d be smacked off the park either.

 

[speedy]

1 win
Even if all our kids come good we still don’t have the list to challenge.
Finish last, split the pick, 2 top 10 picks and upgrade our 2nd to another first rounder.

Hopefully there is no mass player exodus, we don’t get relocated and we don’t cease to exist.

 

[Sillygit]

I predict we'll get another prediction thread in round 5

 

[speedy]

This level of shitness is unprecedented in this professional era. Wouldn’t be surprised if the AFL threaten to revoke our licence and force us to move to tassie.

 

[Mcarcherey]

Freo finished 14th last year, lost players over the Summer, were playing interstate and had a long injury list - of course that was a winnable game if anyone thought there was going to be improvement in us this year.

That's still higher than North... They also regained players like fyfe. They underperformed last year, their midfield is stacked and right at their peak.

They also belted last year's grand finalists whilst having 3 players injured during the game the week before...

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[Mcarcherey]

This level of shitness is unprecedented in this professional era. Wouldn’t be surprised if the AFL threaten to revoke our licence and force us to move to tassie.

Put the pipe down and get help

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[Liam Boy]

I think it's going to be a season of building with most of the wins towards the end, like 2021 was hopefully without the late implosion and the disaster the following year. We'll win anywhere between 4 and 8, if it's 4 there will be a lot of really frustrating close losses.

 

[koshari]

This is still where I'm at. Super tough draw upfront is muddying things a bit.

Likely selecting teams based on development rather than out and out competitiveness.

 

[koshari]

Put the pipe down and get help

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Or at least share it around

 

[Samsquanch]

Who seriously had a win pencilled in vs gws, freo and Carlton at the start of the season....

Stop believing hyperbole, whether it's positive or negative.



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Errr... That was me. I was pretty confident. I usually expect the team to win even when I think they might not.

 

[Samsquanch]

The only game we will start favourites in any of those 'legitimate' games is West Coast at Marvel.

On that basis we will win 1 game. We would hope to beat Eagles over there but that is not locked in.

However by Rounds 22-24 all sorts of 'tanking'/'positioning' will be going on so its hard to read how those games play out. We could well pick up another 1-2 wins like the Gold Coast win in the last round last year if Eagles and Hawks are in full tank mode.

Here's what I think...

The AFL will issue a warning to every other team, stating that if North beat them in any match after round 14 then they will be investigated and subsequently found guilty of tanking with automatic loss of draft picks and other financial sanctions.

 

[Samsquanch]

1 win
Even if all our kids come good we still don’t have the list to challenge.
Finish last, split the pick, 2 top 10 picks and upgrade our 2nd to another first rounder.

Hopefully there is no mass player exodus, we don’t get relocated and we don’t cease to exist.

 

[Samsquanch]

I predict we'll get another prediction thread in round 5

Excuse me, but are you the Nostradamus?