West Coast are the real deal

[ReaperX]

I get that.

I said at the start of the year that I'd be ecstatic with a 6-8 finish and that's where I think we will be long term for the next season or so. But I think as things stand now, we are playing good, consistent team footy and should rightfully be considered for a top 4 finish. Are we premiership quality? Hell no, and chances are our backing will tire and the young guys in the middle may run out of puff. Buf I think we're playing better than those below us ATM, and not as good as the top 3.

If we dropped any lower than 6th from 9-3 at the mid-point of the season I'd be disappointed.

I doubt you'll drop lower than 6th, unless you dropped a few games against those bottom teams in the 2nd half of the year, which I would think is unlikely given your current form against bottom teams. I think a Home Elimination Final is looking the most likely outcome for you guys after last night's win, and your upcoming draw. Your % will ensure that, even if you only get to 13 wins that would probably be enough for 6th, but 14 wins would guarantee it, and 15 wins may get you that elusive 5th spot, but that will involve beating one of Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, or beating Collingwood/Adelaide on the road.

The advantage that you do get in those matches against the 3 heavyweights is that you play them all at Domain Stadium.

A 4th to 6th finish is definitely punching above your weight in terms of pre-season expectation, but there is usually a team or two that defies expectations, both positively and negatively. This year it's you guys for the positive, and Port for the negative, at least at the moment anyway. Last year it was us for the negative (until the 9 game winning streak), and Port for the positive, etc etc.

 

[ReaperX]

Right, the good ol' "I feel it so theyre going to win," line. You'd think you'd determine a favourite based on actual form.
Well, tell me, if somehow the WCE are normally an 8-12 team, and only sit 2nd due to a soft draw. By seasons end what do you consider North to be? Since they look to have a comparable draw. If they finish 4th, they'd certainly have overachieved based on your logic.

North have the proven runs on the board that they are a Top 4 quality team from their 2014 season. Last year they won 2 cut-throat finals against Top 8 quality sides, as well as beating Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney, and Hawthorn during the regular season. They haven't been able to replicate it this season to date, but the way their draw is positioned right now, they have the opportunity to win the vast majority of their final 10 matches.

After next week's clash with the Demons, West Coast's easy part of their draw is then over. They've essentially had North's last 10 matches in their first 10 matches, and in these first 12 weeks, they have positioned themselves beautifully, however their credentials will be tested in the weeks to come, and given North's draw, I feel that the Eagles will need to win 6 of their last 10 to finish in the Top 4.

It comes down to simple math and numbers for me. They will need to beat one of Fremantle, Sydney, or Hawthorn at home, or Collingwood/Adelaide on the road. I don't see them winning any of those 5 matches, so assuming they win their other 5 easier matches and don't drop any of those, that would see them finish at 14-8 for the year.

I see North, due to their very easy last 10 matches, finishing 15-7. And with Fremantle, Sydney, and Hawthorn essentially looking likely for those Top 3 spots, that only leaves 1 spot left, and that spot goes to the team who finishes 15-7.

 

[inbetween]

North have the proven runs on the board that they are a Top 4 quality team from their 2014 season. Last year they won 2 cut-throat finals against Top 8 quality sides, as well as beating Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney, and Hawthorn during the regular season. They haven't been able to replicate it this season to date, but the way their draw is positioned right now, they have the opportunity to win the vast majority of their final 10 matches.

After next week's clash with the Demons, West Coast's easy part of their draw is then over. They've essentially had North's last 10 matches in their first 10 matches, and in these first 12 weeks, they have positioned themselves beautifully, however their credentials will be tested in the weeks to come, and given North's draw, I feel that the Eagles will need to win 6 of their last 10 to finish in the Top 4.

It comes down to simple math and numbers for me. They will need to beat one of Fremantle, Sydney, or Hawthorn at home, or Collingwood/Adelaide on the road. I don't see them winning any of those 5 matches, so assuming they win their other 5 easier matches and don't drop any of those, that would see them finish at 14-8 for the year.

I see North, due to their very easy last 10 matches, finishing 15-7. And with Fremantle, Sydney, and Hawthorn essentially looking likely for those Top 3 spots, that only leaves 1 spot left, and that spot goes to the team who finishes 15-7.

I've no issues with you suggesting North can finish 4th. But your posts make it sound as if you believe that if WC make the 4, they wont deserve it.
"Soft draw," "Only make the 4 if teams around them drop games they should win."
That is insulting given the circumstances are very similar for most teams in finals contention.

 

[andrew coombs]

People in here laughed when I said WCE are the only threat to freo winning a flag. And that they have an elite midfield and forward line.

I" m still laughing at that notion.

 

[ReaperX]

I've no issues with you suggesting North can finish 4th. But your posts make it sound as if you believe that if WC make the 4, they wont deserve it.
"Soft draw," "Only make the 4 if teams around them drop games they should win."
That is insulting given the circumstances are very similar for most teams in finals contention.

Actually, I've said nothing of the sort.

I've said that I don't think West Coast will make the Top 4, due to the draw, and also not being in that elite category but a rung or two below.

But what I did say in one of my earlier posts, is that if they did make the Top 4 from here, they will deserve it.

Below:

Had you beaten them last week in Hobart, that may have been the game that gave you the Top 4 edge. But I feel that they'll catch up the 4 games required with their draw.

North could conceivably win all 11 of their next 11 games if they click, their only really tough match is against Fremantle, but even that one is in Victoria.

As for you guys, well I'd say the two contests against Adelaide are crucial. If you could win both of them, that could be enough to get you Top 4 as well, but I would expect you to go 1-1 with them, along with the 3 wins against the those Bottom 5 teams mentioned, plus an expected win against the Doggies, that will be the 5 wins that gets you to 14 wins.

I just can't see you beating Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, or Collingwood at the G, or Adelaide at AO.

Essentially the two Adelaide clashes, and the Collingwood clash, are your "Top 4" games. If you win 2 of those 3, and win all the other expected ones, then you will deserve Top 4.

I just don't think it'll happen though, and until it does, declaring that you're a premiership threat, or the "real deal", seems premature to me. Just as declaring that Richmond was a contender after we beat Fremantle was premature as well.

 

[Fluro Boots]

Derby qualifying final would be awesome

 

[eaglespremiers]

North have the proven runs on the board that they are a Top 4 quality team from their 2014 season. Last year they won 2 cut-throat finals against Top 8 quality sides, as well as beating Fremantle in Perth, Sydney in Sydney, and Hawthorn during the regular season. They haven't been able to replicate it this season to date, but the way their draw is positioned right now, they have the opportunity to win the vast majority of their final 10 matches.

After next week's clash with the Demons, West Coast's easy part of their draw is then over. They've essentially had North's last 10 matches in their first 10 matches, and in these first 12 weeks, they have positioned themselves beautifully, however their credentials will be tested in the weeks to come, and given North's draw, I feel that the Eagles will need to win 6 of their last 10 to finish in the Top 4.

It comes down to simple math and numbers for me. They will need to beat one of Fremantle, Sydney, or Hawthorn at home, or Collingwood/Adelaide on the road. I don't see them winning any of those 5 matches, so assuming they win their other 5 easier matches and don't drop any of those, that would see them finish at 14-8 for the year.

I see North, due to their very easy last 10 matches, finishing 15-7. And with Fremantle, Sydney, and Hawthorn essentially looking likely for those Top 3 spots, that only leaves 1 spot left, and that spot goes to the team who finishes 15-7.

While I am skeptical about our ability to keep up our current output if we do I think the odds of us winning one of the five games is extremely high based on the following conservative odds:
Collingwood 40/60
Adelaide 50/50
Hawthorn 35/65
Sydney 30/70
Fremantle 25/75

 

[the harry]

We'll start favourites against the Crows.

 

[NYJetsfor2029]

While I am skeptical about our ability to keep up our current output if we do I think the odds of us winning one of the five games is extremely high based on the following conservative odds:
Collingwood 40/60
Adelaide 50/50
Hawthorn 35/65
Sydney 30/70
Fremantle 25/75

Keep up the current output? I fully expect them the to go up another gear after the bye. They're a very young team that plays well with confidence, and the more games they play the more confident they become.

 

[zero]

It comes down to simple math and numbers for me. They will need to beat one of Fremantle, Sydney, or Hawthorn at home, or Collingwood/Adelaide on the road. I don't see them winning any of those 5 matches, so assuming they win their other 5 easier matches and don't drop any of those, that would see them finish at 14-8 for the year.

maybe you need to have a look at the math again

Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle have collectively dropped games to the Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Port Adelaide, GWS and Richmond, oftimes at home. they are far from invincible

while the eagles will start underdogs in all three games the statistical chance of taking off 1 is quite high.
if you add in collingwood and adelaide away at least one win is very likely indeed, with 2 wins from those 5 a distinct possibility.

ladbrokes have all those games with the eagles as slight underdogs and the away game against the crows as dead even. if you actually think that the eagles will drop every one of the those games you should put a sizable bet on, because you would get an amazing price on a multi.

 

[MIKE85]

We'll start favourites against the Crows.

AO is basically our second home anyway, what with our 100% strike rate there

FWIW I reckon we'll finish 4th. We'll beat the Dee's, Crows, Saints & Dogs at home, and GC away. Collingwood at etihad is a bit of a benefit for us, although this team doesn't seem to be bothered by Venues and our records there, so far anyway.

As for being the real deal, probably not, but who picked Freo to make the GF in 2013 after being knocked out of the finals in the semis the year before?? All you need is a good draw (which we have, but so do all the teams around us, people talking up Collingwood, and their draw has been almost identical to ours) and some luck. If we get a home PF we'll make the GF, and anything can happen from there, but we are also just as likely to drop a game or 2 we shouldn't and finish in the bottom half of the 8. Time will tell I guess.

 

[ep2018]

I'm shitting bricks about the Melbourne game tbh haha.

 

[MIKE85]

I'm shitting bricks about the Melbourne game tbh haha.

Nah don't worry, Geelong are shit remember, they must be because we beat them, and we haven't beaten anyone yet.

 

[Underdog]

Essentially the two Adelaide clashes, and the Collingwood clash, are your "Top 4" games. If you win 2 of those 3, and win all the other expected ones, then you will deserve Top 4.

There's no such thing as deserving top 4. You're either top 4 or you're not.

 

[Borderline]

This article absolutely nails it! Not looking forward to the derby...

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...-2015-afl-season/story-e6frf3e3-1227409815186

“I don’t see any reason why they’ll fall away, either, because they’re so sound. I don’t think it’s a case of whether they’ll finish top four. It’s even if they can go higher than that — that’s how well they’re travelling,” Lloyd told 3AW.



“Last year they couldn’t beat a top-eight side, they couldn’t beat one all year. Now I can’t wait for the next derby in Perth, because Freo’s a side they just can’t beat. But I think the way they’re playing now, you’d nearly tip them to beat Fremantle — that’s how impressed I am with the West Coast Eagles.”

 

[Righteo]

Keep up the current output? I fully expect them the to go up another gear after the bye. They're a very young team that plays well with confidence, and the more games they play the more confident they become.

Young teams are also very susceptible to bad form slumps, particularly towards the end of the season as the younger guys "burn out". Simpson already seems to be aware of that though, showed that by making Duggan the sub this weekend. I'm genuinely curious to see how long West Coast can defy the odds and keep this form up.

This article absolutely nails it! Not looking forward to the derby...

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...-2015-afl-season/story-e6frf3e3-1227409815186

I am, we're poised to see the best derby in years.

 

[Farang83150]

LOL..that picture of Yeo's really flattering!!

 

[NYJetsfor2029]

Young teams are also very susceptible to bad form slumps, particularly towards the end of the season as the younger guys "burn out". Simpson already seems to be aware of that though, showed that by making Duggan the sub this weekend. I'm genuinely curious to see how long West Coast can defy the odds and keep this form up.

A young team for sure but not a baby team by any means. Of the 22 from the weekend 18 players are in the over 23. Of the other four, I wouldn´t worry about Darling and Yeo burning out, but Duggan and Sheed are important for midfield rotations and could be an issue later (Selwood taking over their midfield time would be our death knell).

 

[Freo]

A young team for sure but not a baby team by any means. Of the 22 from the weekend 18 players are in the over 23. Of the other four, I wouldn´t worry about Darling and Yeo burning out, but Duggan and Sheed are important for midfield rotations and could be an issue later (Selwood taking over their midfield time would be our death knell).

Weagles will make the 4 from here. IMHO, the only other team capable of taking 4th spot is Richmond - and That's only if they decide to turn up consistently in the last half of the year.

 

[lusheslewis]

It comes down to simple math and numbers for me. They will need to beat one of Fremantle, Sydney, or Hawthorn at home, or Collingwood/Adelaide on the road. I don't see them winning any of those 5 matches, so assuming they win their other 5 easier matches and don't drop any of those, that would see them finish at 14-8 for the year.

I don't see how you can write us off against Collingwood. I think even Collingwood fans would say that's about 50/50 at this stage.

I am, we're poised to see the best derby in years.

Yes it should be fantastic.

I still can't back us against you, I think your midfield is too strong and you match up well. Sandilands, Fyfe, Walters and McPharlin are exactly the type of players that will beat us.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Earlier in the thread I said I think West Coast's true position is an 8th to 12th team, and I do stand by that theory. I think that they are overachieving at the moment due to a softish draw, and that they are playing above themselves.

What's a 'true position'?

Surely it's wherever you finish.

If WC finish in the top four at season's end - they may or they may not - you'll sound pretty stupid if you turn around and say 'Nah - their true position is 8-12'.

You finish where you finish and the rest is conjecture.

 

[The_Reaper]

Not an attack on Collingwood but surely the exact same arguments against West Coast also apply to them?

 

[Kram]

Definitely overblown.

 

[Scotland]

Flat track bullies.

Naitanui doesn't do enough.

 

[eaglespremiers]

maybe you need to have a look at the math again

Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle have collectively dropped games to the Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Port Adelaide, GWS and Richmond, oftimes at home. they are far from invincible

while the eagles will start underdogs in all three games the statistical chance of taking off 1 is quite high.
if you add in collingwood and adelaide away at least one win is very likely indeed, with 2 wins from those 5 a distinct possibility.

ladbrokes have all those games with the eagles as slight underdogs and the away game against the crows as dead even. if you actually think that the eagles will drop every one of the those games you should put a sizable bet on, because you would get an amazing price on a multi.

Lol, zero called to say your maths doesn't add up.