What do we need to do to return back to premiership contention?

[Goggin Our Best]

Im not writing off this year, if we go on a run then it's doable. No team is the dominant threat that we have seen in years gone past. Collingwood have weaknesses that good teams can expose, same with the rest of the top 4. It is not beyond any team to go on a run and win it all this year, even us. Maybe especially us given what we know this list can do.

Having said that, even if we do win it all we will still be asking the same question regarding what we need to do for the next flag.

Will this year turn out to be 2015 version 2.0? If we nail a few off season moves then sure, we can reload and go again like we did from 2016. Add one or two prime movers in the midfield aged 24-29 and suddenly our midfield is a threat again. Then it's just a question of how long Hawkins wants to go on for to determine how much longer this list can remain competitive. Hawkins and Cameron is a duo no team really has an answer for, if the delivery to them and the rest of the forward line is elite then we are a top 2 team in the league again.

If we dont nail a few moves then it will be a longer road to the next flag. Going to the draft brings with it risks that the picks might not turn out to be what we hoped they would, but we'd have the opportunity to bring in some top talent, and develop the talent we have (which is very promising when you look at our under 22 players). But that wont detract from the few years we will have to endure when Danger/Duncan/Hawkins/Stewart/2E/Smith et al are all gone. From an off field perspective who knows what damage that could do to the club in lose of membership and lower crowd numbers.

I think if Parish re-signs at Essendon and there is no other midfielders available for trade we will do what we did between 2012-2015: bring in some veterans to stabilise the list as retirements begin to bite, and help keep us at least in the hunt for finals. That will keep the fans turning up, which for the club is vital, as a true list implosion followed by a few season like West Coast are enduring is not something this club wants to contemplate.

...Or we get Parish as a FA, trade for Bailey Smith, Neale and Conway turn out to be superstars, Holmes is the Judd of this generation and the fun times keep rolling.

No cant agree with that at all

Geel are currently $15 for the flag - i wouldnt even put a single penny on Geelong for the flag even if you could get odds of 15,000 to 1

And with the injuries to Blicavs and Hawkins - then in 2 weeks time when Geel play Coll - then given some of Geelongs lack lustre performances this year -and point blank refusal to play 4qtrs of football and totally annihilated in the midfield - then im concerned the Magpies could beat the Cats by over 100pts - and that would be sad to see that happen to a reigning premier - especially if you barrack for that reigning Premier

 

[SkittleCats]

No cant agree with that at all

Geel are currently $15 for the flag - i wouldnt even put a single penny on Geelong for the flag even if you could get odds of 15,000 to 1

And with the injuries to Blicavs and Hawkins - then in 2 weeks time when Geel play Coll - then given some of Geelongs lack lustre performances this year -and point blank refusal to play 4qtrs of football and totally annihilated in the midfield - then im concerned the Magpies could beat the Cats by over 100pts - and that would be sad to see that happen to a reigning premier - especially if you barrack for that reigning Premier

Ok cool thanks for sharing.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Ok cool thanks for sharing.

I just think Geel are like Melb last year - Demons had the flag hangover - and their 2nd half last year was insipid - capped off with their 2 final losses on the MCG against Syd and Bris which were atrocious - just got worse the longer each game went

And the Cats at this point in time are just physically and mentally shot

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Im not writing off this year, if we go on a run then it's doable. No team is the dominant threat that we have seen in years gone past. Collingwood have weaknesses that good teams can expose, same with the rest of the top 4. It is not beyond any team to go on a run and win it all this year, even us. Maybe especially us given what we know this list can do.

Having said that, even if we do win it all we will still be asking the same question regarding what we need to do for the next flag.

Will this year turn out to be 2015 version 2.0? If we nail a few off season moves then sure, we can reload and go again like we did from 2016. Add one or two prime movers in the midfield aged 24-29 and suddenly our midfield is a threat again. Then it's just a question of how long Hawkins wants to go on for to determine how much longer this list can remain competitive. Hawkins and Cameron is a duo no team really has an answer for, if the delivery to them and the rest of the forward line is elite then we are a top 2 team in the league again.

If we dont nail a few moves then it will be a longer road to the next flag. Going to the draft brings with it risks that the picks might not turn out to be what we hoped they would, but we'd have the opportunity to bring in some top talent, and develop the talent we have (which is very promising when you look at our under 22 players). But that wont detract from the few years we will have to endure when Danger/Duncan/Hawkins/Stewart/2E/Smith et al are all gone. From an off field perspective who knows what damage that could do to the club in lose of membership and lower crowd numbers.

I think if Parish re-signs at Essendon and there is no other midfielders available for trade we will do what we did between 2012-2015: bring in some veterans to stabilise the list as retirements begin to bite, and help keep us at least in the hunt for finals. That will keep the fans turning up, which for the club is vital, as a true list implosion followed by a few season like West Coast are enduring is not something this club wants to contemplate.

...Or we get Parish as a FA, trade for Bailey Smith, Neale and Conway turn out to be superstars, Holmes is the Judd of this generation and the fun times keep rolling.

Always welcome viewpoints that are positive and filled with optimism. Especially when my views are ones I wish to be wrong myself.

Thanks for the contribution and time to write this. You may well end up being right on all this

 

[geelong_crazy26]

No cant agree with that at all

Geel are currently $15 for the flag - i wouldnt even put a single penny on Geelong for the flag even if you could get odds of 15,000 to 1

And with the injuries to Blicavs and Hawkins - then in 2 weeks time when Geel play Coll - then given some of Geelongs lack lustre performances this year -and point blank refusal to play 4qtrs of football and totally annihilated in the midfield - then im concerned the Magpies could beat the Cats by over 100pts - and that would be sad to see that happen to a reigning premier - especially if you barrack for that reigning Premier

This bolded part is where I feel things are going horribly wrong… you don’t need a midfield dominating to win games, but you can’t be getting smashed to the tune of half the clearances and contested possessions and expect any system to be able to hold itself up or be consistent across 4 qtrs…

The midfield I feel like is a ripple effect. If you have a good high quality plan, then a midfield that performs well makes life a lot easier for everyone else and to get things on your terms.

The amount of sheer pressure poor tommy Stewart and dekoning have been under with the high quality defensive fifty entries has been at times nightmares to defend and really having them under the pump, and on the flip side making other teams lousy defenses look a million bucks when we pump it in high and long…

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We're in an intriguing position, and only our supporters seem to know it.

In terms of looking at the next couple of years, I'm really not sure. I think it's going to depend heavily on what we do this trade period.

Pure_Ownage and myself have been strong on this on the MB. The main way for us to contend again in the next couple of years is through prime age talent.

We're in a unique spot that isn't seen often in our game. Our kids are really good, and our old players are still pretty good...but we've got next to nothing in the middle of that.

As a result, we've got two options:

1) We recruit established talent to keep us contending. This is a non-negotiable really, as even if it's not going to return us to Grand Finals...we still need senior bodies around the ball to stop the kittens from getting smashed every week. Nobody too old, just in the 24-28 range.

2) We wait 3-5 years until Bruhn, Henry, Holmes, Conway, SDK, Neale, Clark etc begin to peak, while still having Stengle, Zuthrie, Close, Jenry, Miers, etc in their prime years.

I think we all know which option the club will be taking, which is option 1.

It's going to make for an interesting couple of years, where we're probably not truly contending while we're waiting for the kids to begin to peak.

Kind of like a rebuild, but not really. Think Sydney in 2019, 2020, and 2021 as a reference.

I have no doubt our emerging group will win us a flag in 4-5 years time, but it's what we do inbetween that that interests me for now.

Probably just do what we always do, strive to get better every year and continue to sell the dream.

 

[catempire]

 

[Kobe Gryant]

View attachment 1761457

It is funny isn't it?

In a dream scenario, we bring in Smith & Parish, Guthrie comes back, we get a real pre-season to get fit, the kids make the jump and BOOM!! We're back!!

Unfortunately, that looks highly unlikely. It has a touch of so close yet so far to it...but hey, we have no idea what the trade and draft periods can bring.

What should console us all is our club is going to leave no stone unturned to fix this.

 

[And_ROOS]

No chance of finding a couple of 2019 Tim Kellys in other leagues?

Midfield is the concern. If Hawkins retired this year, with Cameron, Rohan, OHenry, Stengle, Close, and someone likely to either progress from the VFL or we draft/free agent someone and the forwardline will still do well. Defense is still strong.

Our midfield is dire. We lack an elite midfielder. We lack a midfield bull now that Danger plays restricted minutes. We lack a midfield accumulator.

2 decent mids into this seasons squad and we are top 4 right now. Thats the margins with our squad and our list.

 

[Mr Meow]

No cant agree with that at all

Geel are currently $15 for the flag - i wouldnt even put a single penny on Geelong for the flag even if you could get odds of 15,000 to 1

And with the injuries to Blicavs and Hawkins - then in 2 weeks time when Geel play Coll - then given some of Geelongs lack lustre performances this year -and point blank refusal to play 4qtrs of football and totally annihilated in the midfield - then im concerned the Magpies could beat the Cats by over 100pts - and that would be sad to see that happen to a reigning premier - especially if you barrack for that reigning Premier

You said similar before the Brisbane game. We played terribly for that one but had just one less scoring shot and lost by only 10 points. We are losing games we shouldn't including almost all of the close ones, but how many times have we been thrashed this season?

 

[DanA]

We should have been contenders this year but for a horrid run with injuries.

In midfield, last season was on a knife edge with poor performances early, it turned with new roles for Blicavs and Atkins that ignited things. This season, it's Selwood, Guthrie, and Dangerfield that have been the problem. Selwood is gone, Dangerfield has had limited availability after the broken rib, and Guthrie limped through the first 6 games before pulling the pin.

That has meant Bruhn, Holmes, O'Connor, and Miers have had to attend a significant number of centre-bounce and they just don't win the clearances/ contested ball required for us to be competitive over the course of a game. Bruhn is getting there, and maybe Holmes will too though he's currently a good winger. But Miers will never be big enough for an inside role, and O'Connor is simply too defensive with that role better filled by Blicavs and Atkins.

There's been other problems with Cameron taking hits, inconsistent performances in the ruck, and structural issues down back playing Ratugolea. But those are typical regular season problems ironed out in the home and away. What's been fatal is the lack of ball-winners in the midfield. It shouldn't be hard to fix this off-season with maybe a veteran recruit, and may resolve itself with the development of some young guys and the return to health of others. And as has been the case for a decade, we could always improve in the ruck.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

We should have been contenders this year but for a horrid run with injuries.

In midfield, last season was on a knife edge with poor performances early, it turned with new roles for Blicavs and Atkins that ignited things. This season, it's Selwood, Guthrie, and Dangerfield that have been the problem. Selwood is gone, Dangerfield has had limited availability after the broken rib, and Guthrie limped through the first 6 games before pulling the pin.

That has meant Bruhn, Holmes, O'Connor, and Miers have had to attend a significant number of centre-bounce and they just don't win the clearances/ contested ball required for us to be competitive over the course of a game. Bruhn is getting there, and maybe Holmes will too though he's currently a good winger. But Miers will never be big enough for an inside role, and O'Connor is simply too defensive with that role better filled by Blicavs and Atkins.

There's been other problems with Cameron taking hits, inconsistent performances in the ruck, and structural issues down back playing Ratugolea. But those are typical regular season problems ironed out in the home and away. What's been fatal is the lack of ball-winners in the midfield. It shouldn't be hard to fix this off-season with maybe a veteran recruit, and may resolve itself with the development of some young guys and the return to health of others. And as has been the case for a decade, we could always improve in the ruck.

To compound the problem even more, Parfitt regressed big time. He wasn't an A grade mid or anything but still a big body to have around the contest and could play a decent role.

Also for me, I was hoping Bowes would come in and do more than what he has. He's ok, and could play a decent role off HB, but I was hoping for a big midfield role for him that would see him take another step to fill Selwood's absence (in terms of production). He was after all, a top 10 pick.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

To compound the problem even more, Parfitt regressed big time. He wasn't an A grade mid or anything but still a big body to have around the contest and could play a decent role.

Also for me, I was hoping Bowes would come in and do more than what he has. He's ok, and could play a decent role off HB, but I was hoping for a big midfield role for him that would see him take another step to fill Selwood's absence (in terms of production). He was after all, a top 10 pick.

If by "big body" you mean 5'10 and pudgy then Brandan's your man!!

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

If by "big body" you mean 5'10 and pudgy then Brandan's your man!!

Haha nah I ment as in mature in that 25-30 age bracket, rather than Bruhn/Clark/Knevitt. Parfitt is meant to be entering his prime, but instead he's langashing in the VFL, a big drop off from where we needed him to be this year.

 

[iameviljez]

As a result, we've got two options:

1) We recruit established talent to keep us contending. This is a non-negotiable really, as even if it's not going to return us to Grand Finals...we still need senior bodies around the ball to stop the kittens from getting smashed every week. Nobody too old, just in the 24-28 range.

2) We wait 3-5 years until Bruhn, Henry, Holmes, Conway, SDK, Neale, Clark etc begin to peak, while still having Stengle, Zuthrie, Close, Jenry, Miers, etc in their prime years.

I think we all know which option the club will be taking, which is option 1.

To be fair, any club in the land would say yes to the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Darcy Parish, Sean Darcy, Bailey Smith or any other quality players aged 28 or below. Those guys are start-up first 18 players in any side in the league.

The main question is whether we go after moneyball-style role players as well - i.e. Gary Rohan, Stewart Crameri, Josh Jenkins, Jono Ceglar, Isaac Smith, Jack Steven. That's where I think we need to break with the last couple of years - going after established players to play a specific-but-limited role makes sense when you're in genuine flag contention, but IMO it's not the right move for where we are now.

 

[And_ROOS]

You said similar before the Brisbane game. We played terribly for that one but had just one less scoring shot and lost by only 10 points. We are losing games we shouldn't including almost all of the close ones, but how many times have we been thrashed this season?

The Port game is the only game we lost where I felt we got smashed and that was only what, 38 points?

 

[Vdubs]

Fair call, I can agree with that. So long as Chris too feels he's the man to keep it all going

The crux- as long as he does, and that's based on the team wanting him, it has to be his job.

 

[Vdubs]

The Port game is the only game we lost where I felt we got smashed and that was only what, 38 points?

Our most challenging month for 23 is about to start- 4 teams above us on the ladder desperate to put us down. Let's reassess in 4 weeks

 

[Turbocat]

Go to the draft and choose wisely ...

 

[you pick one]

11 games at Geelong plus finals would be a great place to start.

 

[catempire]

To be fair, any club in the land would say yes to the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Darcy Parish, Sean Darcy, Bailey Smith or any other quality players aged 28 or below. Those guys are start-up first 18 players in any side in the league.

The main question is whether we go after moneyball-style role players as well - i.e. Gary Rohan, Stewart Crameri, Josh Jenkins, Jono Ceglar, Isaac Smith, Jack Steven. That's where I think we need to break with the last couple of years - going after established players to play a specific-but-limited role makes sense when you're in genuine flag contention, but IMO it's not the right move for where we are now.

It’s interesting, if you look back at our “ready-made” recruits in the past decade and divide them between sub-28 and 28+ years old you see a pretty clear pattern. I’d want extremely good justification to get anyone over 28 based on this evidence. The two successes had 5 Premiership medals between them!!

Sub-28

Rivers
Caddy
Clark
Stanley
Blease
Dangerfield
Henderson
Z.Smith
S.Selwood
Menegola
Black
Tuohy
Stewart
Abbott
Kelly
Crameri
Rohan
Dalhaus
Fort
Atkins
Cameron
Stengle
O.Henry
Bruhn
Bowes


28+

McIntosh
Jenkins
Steven
Higgins
Ablett
Smith
Ceglar

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

We're delaying the inevitable staggering our retirements. Part of me wants to see a complete cull. But at the same time we will never get to do a proper rebuild. We don't have the draft picks which goes with having too much success. Even if we tried to rebuild we'd probably still have a good season and not get any decent picks. What a problem to have lol.

 

[And_ROOS]

We're delaying the inevitable staggering our retirements. Part of me wants to see a complete cull. But at the same time we will never get to do a proper rebuild. We don't have the draft picks which goes with having too much success. Even if we tried to rebuild we'd probably still have a good season and not get any decent picks. What a problem to have lol.

Can't say I want us to do a proper rebuild after seeing how many clubs have tried and failed to do them. Plus we have too much talent on our list that a shit year for us is still going to end up with us finishing between 7th and 12th, not low enough to get a great pick.

We won't even be truly shit because of the games we play in Geelong.

But you are right, what a problem to have.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We're delaying the inevitable staggering our retirements. Part of me wants to see a complete cull. But at the same time we will never get to do a proper rebuild. We don't have the draft picks which goes with having too much success. Even if we tried to rebuild we'd probably still have a good season and not get any decent picks. What a problem to have lol.

I do apologize as I know this is getting is repetitive, but I just think everyone needs to know this so we can stop even entertaining this idea.

If we were to cull the list this year, it would be a disaster. The FA pool is thin, we have no targets which appear as certainties, and we have one great pick (admittedly, that could be two pending Sav)

A full cull would result in a list clogged with dead wood. Literally pick 84+, that's not an exaggeration, that's what it'll be.

At best one of them makes it, chances are none of them do....and they'll all be on 2 year deals hindering our ability to draft or trade heavy next year.

2024 is looking like the reincarnation of 2015. We'll have the choose to either trade heavy, or draft heavy, as it's a far better year for OOC players.

Which ever choice we make, we will need the list spots...and I don't know about you, but I'd much prefer a couple of first round picks and/or Zak Butters on the list over pick 105.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Literally pick 84+

Might be a dumb question but why do you end up with dead wood when players retire ? Is this a pick donation by the afl or something. Surely we still hold our two good picks right.